Caracal Daily | July 9

Democracy, Jill Biden, Drone Warfare, WhatsApp, Pickleballers, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

The annual NATO summit kicks off this week in Washington.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday, according to his office, while he’s in town for the NATO summit.

Hoo boy: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, while Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán made a surprise visit to China.

Russia attacked a children’s hospital in Ukraine, part of a range of strikes across the country that local authorities said killed at least 36 people.

Democracy is in bad health, Pope Francis says: Reuters reports democracy is not in good shape, Pope Francis said on Sunday, urging politicians to shun populism and instead work together to build stronger societies and tackle voter apathy.

+ Speaking at an annual Roman Catholic convention on social affairs, the pope said many people felt excluded from democracy, with the poor and the weak left to fend for themselves.

Anti-tourism protests erupted in Barcelona, with locals arguing the influx of overseas visitors was causing a cost-of-living crisis. Barcelona saw 15.6 million tourists last year, and the industry accounts for 14% of GDP. But rents in the city were up 18% in June year-on-year, and have risen 70% over the last 10 years. Protesters squirted tourists with water guns and held up signs saying “Go home!” 

Crushing debts await Europe’s new leaders: Planned largess by election winners in Britain and France is on a collision course with soaring debts and deficits. WSJ

France and Britain are changing places: Europe looks leaderless at a time of mounting global threats. Gideon Rachman

UK's new prime minister has chance to reset ties with US, but thorny issues make it tricky: Translating a UK desire for more engagement into influence on US policy will be a real challenge for new UK prime minister Keir Starmer, says a lecturer from American University. Garret Martin

Can Britain be mended? As the new government faces an economy, society and political system in despair, there is no shortage of prescriptions to put things right. FT

What the bookies say:

+ Labour to win a majority at the 2029 general election – 2/1

+ Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester metro mayor, to be the next Labour leader – 8/1

+ Tom Tugendhat to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader – 5/1

Macron the gambler wins chance to play kingmaker: French voters’ “non” to Le Pen sets up a duel for a new coalition. Lionel Laurent

The magnificent mind of Emmanuel Macron: The president is a lonely, tragic figure whose strange personality has inflicted chaos and carnage on French politics. Politico

Deeply divided France risks unprecedented deadlock after election shock: Sunday’s snap election produced a National Assembly that ranks among the most ideologically fractured parliaments in the country’s modern history. WSJ

France’s fractious left tries to agree enough to govern: Leftist parties are united in rejecting President Emmanuel Macron but divided on much else. FT

Emmaunel Macron has asked prime minister Gabriel Attal to stay in the role to ‘ensure stability’ after Attal resigned following Sunday’s election.

Le Pen is still the biggest winner in France’s elections Jonathan Miller

How a billionaire turned his French TV channel into a force for the right: CNews has been fined for breaching rules on discrimination and inciting hatred. With France going to the polls, its popularity shows no sign of slowing. The Times

Singapore approved 16 insects for human consumption with immediate effect.

AP: Japan and the Philippines sign a defense pact in the face of shared alarm over China

Kazakhstan agreed to cooperate on China’s ILRS Moon base. 

Why China’s third plenum matters for global investors TJT

Why the West fears massive job losses because of China’s clean tech prowess: European and American leaders have accused Beijing of violating market principles in the electric vehicle, solar panel, and battery sectors. The program When Titans Clash finds out if another China trade shock is on the cards. Pearl Forss

Trying to kill Chinese tech only makes it stronger: China trails the United States on research and development, but it is getting a phenomenal bang for its buck. David Fickling

China outspends the US on fusion in the race for energy’s Holy Grail: China wants to dominate commercial fusion, a long-dreamed-of clean energy source that is attracting new investment. WSJ

What would happen if Russia detonated a nuclear bomb in space? WP

US drones will create a ‘hellscape’ in the Taiwan Strait: If the Pentagon succeeds with an ambitious drone project, it could deter China from invading Taiwan or, paradoxically, make a hot war less hellish. Andreas Kluth

AI-powered super soldiers are more than just a pipe dream: The US military has abandoned its half-century dream of a suit of powered armor in favor of a “hyper-enabled operator,” a tactical AI assistant for special operations forces. Wired

The Treasury Department will expand its scrutiny of foreign investments near US military bases to counter suspected security threats from China and other countries.

The world wasn’t ready for Trump in 2016. It’s not making that mistake this time. In 2016, no one in the world was ready for President Trump. America’s NATO allies aren’t making the same mistake this time. Politico

Argentina will sharply expand its lithium supply, further cementing Latin America’s role in the green economy. Buenos Aires will open four new lithium mines in the coming months, Bloomberg reported, increasing capacity by around 80% and helping it catch up to neighboring Chile, currently the dominant regional producer. 

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states, 47% to 45%, the smallest gap in the poll since it began in October. 

Bloomberg: Doug Burgum charms Trump and donors to emerge as VP prospect

+ North Dakota governor campaigns with the GOP nominee

+ Strategists say experience, rural roots could lure moderates

How JD Vance rocketed onto Trump’s VP shortlist: Bestselling author and former Trump critic has become the most articulate voice for a new brand of conservatism. WSJ

Bloomberg: RNC platform approved by panel highlights tax cuts, border

+ Trump extensively involved in writing, editing draft language

+ Full platform language says party opposes late-term abortion

+ You can access the platform - click here

How Biden’s inner circle worked to keep signs of aging under wraps: Aides kept a tight rein on the president’s travel plans, news conferences, public appearances and meetings with donors while Biden’s stumbles became increasingly obvious. WSJ

The absurdity of the dump-Biden uprising: Nervous Democrats mount an antidemocratic campaign against their own president. Stuart Stevens

Is this Kamala Harris’s moment? The vice president is vigorously defending Biden, but many Democrats also see her as their best backup plan. WSJ

Kamala Harris is Democrats’ future no matter what: It’s time the party do what the Biden administration should have done from the beginning and showcase the vice president’s value. Erika D. Smith

Jill Biden, Vogue, and the torture of bad timing: A week is a long time in politics. In the world of monthly publications, it can be an eternity. Jo Ellison

Semafor: OpenAI to join Washington lobbying group BSA | The Software Alliance

+ BSA has been a leading industry voice as global regulators, including those in the Biden administration, grapple with how to regulate artificial intelligence. The group has pushed for what it describes as the responsible development of AI and advocates for federal rules in light of the hundreds of proposals that have cropped up in state legislatures.

Johns Hopkins University has received a $1 billion donation from Bloomberg Philanthropies, which will make medical school tuition-free for most students. The gift, announced by Mike Bloomberg, aims to cover tuition for medical students from families earning under $300,000 annually, with students from families earning up to $175,000 receiving a full ride, including living expenses.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

BYD agrees $1bn deal to build electric vehicle plant in Turkey: FT reports second-largest EV maker expands EU production as bloc clamps down on access for China imports.

Paramount Global’s board on Sunday approved a deal to merge with Skydance Media.

Prepping for Mars: Four volunteers who lived inside a NASA-run simulated Mars habitat for over a year emerged yesterday. The “Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog” mission began 378 days ago: The astronauts (or terranauts?) lived all that time in a 1,700-square-foot 3D-printed dome called Mars Dune Alpha, seeing how people would cope with life on the red planet.

Cloudflare, the infrastructure and security firm used by 1 in 5 websites, introduced a new service last week that protects clients' content from poaching by data-harvesting bots.

+ AI makers are using increasingly aggressive scraping tactics, seizing any web data that's "publicly available."

AI is keeping the VC ecosystem afloat: It has accounted for more than 40% of new private US "unicorns" so far this year, and over 60% of the increase in total venture-backed valuation, per PitchBook.

Corning raised its second-quarter core sales forecast on Monday, driven by robust adoption of its new optical connectivity products for generative AI.

The words that give away generative AI text: From “delves” to “showcasing,” certain words boomed in usage after LLMs became mainstream. Wired

The age of drone warfare is disrupting the defense industry: Rapidly evolving technology designed by smaller players is challenging the dominance of sluggish industry giants. FT

Microsoft told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace.

Cyclists can’t decide whether to fear or love self-driving cars: The number of cyclists killed by cars on US roads is on the rise. Can autonomous cars stop the carnage? WP

*** Culture ***

Inside the WhatsApp group for top women chefs: Making tentative drink plans, celebrating each other’s wins, and unpacking misogyny: discover the conversations of top women chefs. FT

Why am I hiking the Appalachian Trail? It’s a matter of opportunity. Like any big decision, dropping everything to hike with my teenager for six months just suddenly made sense. Rusty Foster

*** Sport ***

The business of Formula One: Silverstone’s ‘festival of F1’ business model. Interviews: Fernando Alonso on 21 seasons in Formula One; team boss Fred Vasseur on firing up Ferrari. Plus: the driver market goes into overdrive; women progress in the pit lane; buying a racing car; F1 Arcade highlights branding power. FT

Pickleballers were losing their court to tennis. So they staged a sit-in. Fairfax County residents staged a sit-in to stop the courts they use to play pickleball from being converted to tennis only. WP


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal