Caracal Daily | July 11

NATO, New York, Three Mile Island, NIMBY, Gregg Berhalter, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

WP: NATO leaders move to ‘Trump-proof’ the alliance in Washington

You can count on a strong NATO Jake Sullivan

NATO backs Ukraine’s ‘irreversible path’, names China a ‘decisive enabler’ in Russia’s war: Politico reports the draft summit statement says allies will never recognize Russia’s annexations of parts of Ukraine and denounces China’s partnership with Moscow.

To counter China, NATO, and its Asian partners are moving closer under US leadership: AP reports NATO is set to deepen relations with its four Indo-Pacific partners, which, although not part of the military alliance, are gaining prominence as Russia and China forge closer ties to counter the United States and the two Koreas support opposing sides of the conflict in Europe.

China stages war games in Pacific as NATO warns of conflict: The Times reports a draft summit communiqué called Beijing a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and a systemic challenge to Euro-Atlantic security.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the Philippine Sea, marking the first time this year that the aircraft carrier has deployed outside of the South China Sea.

Taiwan to strengthen civil defence to prepare against China threat: FT reports plans include boosting food and energy stockpiles and raising hospital capacity.

Multiple nations enact mysterious export controls on quantum computers: New Scientist reports identical wording placing limits on the export of quantum computers has appeared in regulations across the globe. There doesn't seem to be any scientific reason for the controls, and all can be traced to secret international discussions.

Keir Starmer insisted that his pledge to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP was ‘cast iron’ but that the government would conduct a defense review as a ‘first step.’

+ A poll of UK Conservative members suggested that nearly half would support a merger of their party with Reform UK.

New British government inherits worst economic plight since World War II: The new Labour Party’s playbook borrows from “Bidenomics.” WP

The City of London can regain momentum from Paris: The Square Mile can power UK growth plans after the elections. Patrick Jenkins

Starmer must face up to our China problem: Allowing cheap electric cars to flood the British market comes with both economic costs and security concerns. Ed Conway

France’s Macron, still defiant, bides his time on new prime minister: French leader demands lawmakers in divided National Assembly do some soul searching before he forms a government. WSJ

Anger on France’s left and right as Macron calls for centre coalition: The Times reports in an open letter, the French president said he wants all parties except the hard-left France Unbowed and hard-right National Rally to work together.

Europe needs to sharpen its geopolitical chess game: On energy and innovation, we are being outplayed by the US and China. Vincent Clerc

US says Russia used AI-powered bots in disinformation scheme: Bloomberg reports an editor at a Russian state media outlet developed software to create a bot farm as part of a project that was funded by a member of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, according to court documents unsealed Tuesday by the Department of Justice.

US and allies take down Russian ‘bot farm’ powered by AI: WP reports the effort drove nearly a thousand covert accounts on X.

How 'Islamic State' uses AI to spread extremist propaganda: DW reports groups like the "Islamic State" and al-Qaeda are urging followers to use the latest digital tools to spread their extremist message, avoid censorship, and recruit.

Inside the next era of warfare: How tech is reshaping the battlefield Axios

Ukraine is fighting Russia with toy drones and duct-taped bombs: A cheap, locally assembled flying arsenal is changing the economics of war. Bloomberg

Bloomberg: Canada plans to buy submarines, inching closer to NATO defense target

US and Mexico clamp down on Chinese steel imports: Nikkei reports Brazil and other Latin American countries raise trade barriers amid influx.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Biden drama: George Clooney and Nancy Pelosi joined Joe Biden’s chorus of doubters. The former House speaker said “time is running short” for Biden to exit the race.

@jpodhoretz: it would be the perfect 21st century moment if George Clooney's op-ed proved to be the tipping point for the Biden reelection bid.

George Clooney to President Biden: Good night, and goodbye! You know Dems are in trouble when the celebs start weighing in. Jessica Karl

'It's already disastrous': Biden campaign fundraising takes a major hit: NBC News reports sources close to Biden's re-election efforts say fundraising is set to drop possibly by half this month. A campaign spokesperson pushed back, saying "grassroots" dollars were strong.

Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now’: Politico reports Democrats are worried the president is taking New York for granted as the state becomes surprisingly competitive.

Only four battlegrounds: Trump campaign aide Chris LaCivita told The Atlantic that there are “probably four” true battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Trump 2024 vs. Project 2025: His campaign denies anything to do with the blueprint for a second term, but Trump’s alumni are all over it. Alec Dent

UFC’s Dana White to speak right before Trump at Republican convention: WSJ reports Donald Trump will accept the GOP nomination at next week’s convention in Milwaukee following a speech from Dana White, chief executive of Ultimate Fighting Championship.

These GOP women begged the party to abandon abortion. Then came backlash. The fight waged at the Texas Republican Convention highlights the deep divisions on abortion within the Republican Party. WP

Tech winners from Trump’s 2024 platform: Crypto, AI, and Elon Musk: For a party whose leaders, including former president Donald Trump, have often railed against Big Tech, the Republicans’ new platform has relatively little to say about tech regulation. And what it does say signals a laissez-faire if not outright cozy approach to emerging sectors that have drawn scrutiny from the Biden administration. WP

The Federal Trade Commission just waded into an obscure-seeming arena of AI policy that could nevertheless define the future of research and competition in the field. In a blog post on Wednesday, the agency’s Office of Technology wrote that open-weights AI models can “drive innovation, reduce costs, increase consumer choice, and generally benefit the public.” Read the post here.

FTC bars anonymous messaging app from serving users under age 18: NYT reports the move against the app NGL by the Federal Trade Commission was the first time the agency barred an online service from hosting minors.

Influencer running for US Senate challenges campaign finance rules: Utah Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich says rules regarding “coordinated communications” complicate her livelihood as a content creator. WP

CNN to lay off 100 staffers as it preps major revamp of digital efforts: THR reports CNN CEO Mark Thompson told staff Wednesday that its first digital subscription product will launch this year, and that it is exploring a "strategic push into AI."

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

What is AI? Everyone thinks they know but no one can agree. And that’s a problem. Will Douglas Heaven

Apple TV+ just dropped a show about deadly AI—weeks after debuting Apple Intelligence: FC reports that ‘Sunny,’ starring Rashida Jones, takes an eerie-but-funny look at a near future where people grapple with the dark side of the kind of AI that Apple just introduced.

Defeated by AI, a legend in the board game Go warns: Get ready for what’s next: Lee Saedol was one of the world’s top Go players, and his shocking loss to an AI opponent was a harbinger of a new, unsettling era. “It may not be a happy ending,” he says. NYT

+ “I faced the issues of AI early, but it will happen for others. It may not be a happy ending.” -- Lee Saedol, the legendary Go player who lost to Google DeepMind’s AI program in 2016, warns an audience in Seoul about the risks the technology may pose

Knowledge workers don’t seem to think AI will replace them—but they expect it to save them 4 hours a week in the next year Steve Hasker

Microsoft and Apple drop OpenAI seats amid antitrust scrutiny: FT reports ChatGPT maker plans strategy to engage crucial partners as regulatory scrutiny of sector increases.

Microsoft, Apple will not join OpenAI’s board as regulatory scrutiny grows: Regulators are asking whether tech giants hold too much sway over smaller artificial intelligence companies. WP

xAI is building its own data center from scratch: Semafor reports as part of that push, it has purchased 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, making it what Musk called “the most powerful training cluster in the world by a large margin.”

Advanced Micro Devices said on Wednesday it will acquire Finnish artificial intelligence startup Silo AI for about $665 million.
 
Reuters: Samsung bolsters AI in foldable phones, health monitoring in smartwatch, ring

Reuters: Intuit to cut about 1,800 jobs as it looks to increase AI investments

AI investors are starting to wonder: Is this just a bubble? John Herrman

In constant battle with insurers, doctors reach for a cudgel: AI: NYT reports as health plans increasingly rely on technology to deny treatment, physicians are fighting back with chatbots that synthesize research and make the case.

Bloomberg: Elon Musk says second Neuralink brain implant about a week away

Amazon says it reached a climate goal seven years early: NYT reports the company said it effectively got all of the electricity it used last year from sources that did not produce greenhouse gas emissions. Some experts have faulted the company’s calculations.

Surging AI energy needs could bring Three Mile Island back online: The Pennsylvania plant, site of a partial meltdown in 1979, is part of a burst of fresh activity at mothballed plants as tech companies, manufacturers and energy regulators scramble to find enough zero emissions electricity. WP

BP raised its forecasts for oil and gas demand in the latest sign that the transition to clean energy has slowed.

AP: Two NASA astronauts say they’re confident Boeing’s space capsule can return them safely despite leaks and engine trouble

*** Culture ***

Inside the mind of a NIMBY: They are widely derided, but deep down isn’t everyone a NIMBY? And shouldn’t we try to understand why people fear change close to home? FT

The new normal of office life: As working from home persists, companies are rethinking the role of office space. FT

*** Sport ***

Becoming a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader is like getting into Harvard Jessica Grose

Gregg Berhalter out as USMNT coach.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal