Caracal Daily | July 16

China + Russia, JD Vance, AI, Meetings, Paris, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

AP: China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler

Rare-earth prices are in the doldrums. China wants to keep them that way. WSJ reports overproduction keeps rare-earth prices low, challenging Western efforts to reduce their reliance on Chinese supplies.

China is holding a major meeting on the economy that you can’t watch: President Xi Jinping is presiding over a conclave to draft a new economic program. The stakes are high, but expectations for big changes are modest. NYT

China's third plenum kicks off as GDP disappoints: 5 things to know: All eyes on how Communist Party plans to steer economy through headwinds. Nikkei

Trillions in hidden debt drove China’s growth. Now it threatens its future. Local governments racked up as much as $11 trillion in off-the-books debt to build industrial districts, resorts, transit systems and housing projects, including many that failed. WSJ

China's economy falters, raises pressure for more stimulus: Reuetrs reports China's economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity knocked the wind out of a fragile recovery, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash even more stimulus.

Xi Jinping continues business power grab despite economic setbacks: The Times reports the Chinese president will set his economic priorities — and control — at a Communist Party meeting this week as growth slows and consumers struggle.

The scariest thing dictators are doing now: Working together: According to Anne Applebaum’s “Autocracy, Inc.,” dictators are less interested in ideological alliances and more interested in helping each other stay powerful. WP

China will host senior officials from Hamas and Fatah, longtime rivals: NYT reports the meeting will come as talks about Gaza’s postwar governance take on greater urgency. Previous attempts to mediate have yielded few tangible results.

Israel’s military, worn down by Gaza, looks warily toward war in Lebanon: WP reports as Israel trades threats with Hezbollah, there are fears that the military is overstretched and its resources depleted after nine months of war against Hamas.

Reuters: Ukraine's mobilization campaign picks up despite faltering enthusiasm

Ukraine battles to contain Russian advances across the front: NYT reports Russian forces appear to have captured a southern village taken back by Ukraine last year. In the east, they are closing in on a crucial supply road.

Bloomberg: Million-drone effort for Ukraine is moving forward, Latvia says

+ Allies have committed more than €550 million, Spruds says

+ More funds coming ‘weekly,’ defense chief says in interview

The Times: Lisbon faces demand for referendum to stop rise of Airbnb

Locals in Spain, tired of booming tourism, say ‘stay away’: Protests target tourists, giving some vacationers second thoughts about making a trip. WSJ

Meloni seeks to bring nuclear power back to Italy: FT reports Rome plans to allow investments in small reactors as part of a bid to lower the country’s carbon emissions.

BBC: King and Queen to visit Australia in October

What Washington thinks of Keir Starmer: After years of Conservative turmoil, the new British prime minister has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans alike. Politico

UK government adviser warns assassination attempts becoming more likely: John Woodcock, who has written to home secretary about election violence, says Trump shooting highlights danger. Guardian

EU to boycott Hungary’s foreign affairs summit: Politico reports that increasingly exasperated by Viktor Orbán’s obstruction of EU foreign policy, Brussels is contemplating an unprecedented step to boycott Hungary’s foreign affairs summit next month.

Global spending on Korean cultural products is forecast to nearly double to $143 billion by 2030, according to new research released by TikTok and analytics company Kantar.

+ Social media has amplified global interest in Korean exports.

Bloomberg:  Kuwait announces ‘huge’ oil and gas discovery in offshore field

+ Al-Nukhida field may have 2.1 billion barrels of light oil

+ OPEC’s fifth biggest producer eyes further boost to capacity

Pump more oil or reduce emissions? Canada tries to do both and angers everyone: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approach has made climate policy a divisive issue and helped weaken his government. WSJ

Justin Trudeau is reckoning with the decision of his political life. Here’s why few know what he will do: Many are questioning whether it’s time for the prime minister to step down as leader of the Liberal party, but coming up
with the answer is a uniquely solitary exercise, Tonda MacCharles writes. Toronto Star

***  US Politics + Elections ***

WSJ: Trump shooting is stunning failure for Secret Service

+ Secret Service didn’t sweep building where gunman shot Trump

WP: FBI: Ideology fueling Trump rally gunman still unknown

An assassination attempt that seems likely to tear America further apart: The attack on former President Donald J. Trump comes at a time when the United States is already polarized along ideological and cultural lines and is split, it often seems, into two realities. NYT

Trump once unified Democrats and divided Republicans. The shooting and debate turned the tables. The attempted assassination of the former president prompted his Republican critics to relent, perhaps permanently. Jonathan Martin

Trump shooting spurs GOP unity, scrambles Biden campaign strategy: Tragedy’s aftermath takes spotlight from concerns about Biden’s age, halts Democratic criticism of Trump ahead of Republican convention. WSJ

Trump assassination attempt bolsters 'unified' GOP headed into RNC convention: NBC News reports those headed to Milwaukee say the attempt on Trump’s life will only further motivate the party to return him to the White House.

Trump assassination attempt exposes the mortal core of America’s politics: Pleas for unity are ignored during a nasty, high-stakes presidential race. WSJ

‘I’m tired. I’m done.’ Nation faces exhaustion and division after Trump assassination attempt: Americans express dismay about the state of the country: ‘The world has gone to Hades in a handbasket.’ WSJ

WP: Liars and trolls overwhelm social media after Trump rally shooting

‘BlueAnon’ conspiracy theories flood social media after Trump rally shooting: Researchers who track online conspiracies say liberals are increasingly vulnerable to — and generating — QAnon-like bursts of misinformation. WP

WP: Trump selects JD Vance as running mate

NYT: JD Vance is Trump’s choice for vice president

Ohio Senator was once an acerbic Trump critic: NYT reports former President Trump chose Vance as his running mate, wagering that the young junior senator would bring fresh energy to the Republican ticket.

With Vance, Trump has selected a standard-bearer of MAGA politics: Into a high-stakes, high-decibel election comes another loud voice, when a bit of silence would be welcome. George F. Will

In Vance, Trump picks an ambitious ideologue and first Millennial: A political newcomer and former Trump critic turned ally, Senator Vance relishes the spotlight and has already shown he can energize donors. NYT

Wash Ex: Trump rewrites Republican convention speech to focus on unity not Biden

+ “I’m not supposed to be here. I’m supposed to be dead.” -- Donald Trump, in an interview with the New York Post.

+ “Honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now. It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance.” -- Donald Trump

+ “Getting shot in the face changes a man.” -- Tucker Carlson, quoted by Axios, predicting a kinder Donald Trump.

+  Trump’s team reached out to convention speakers and asking them to avoid focusing on the shooting or blaming the left for it — and instead center their attention on the fundamentals of the campaign.

Bloomberg: Donald Trump asks onetime rival Nikki Haley to attend GOP Convention

NBC News: Democrats fret about the political fallout from the Trump rally shooting

+ “The presidential contest ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant.

Politico: Trump shooting scrambles campaigns in key stretch of the election

+ The Biden and Trump presidential campaigns, as well as the national party committees, have hit the pause button temporarily.

+ Harris also canceled a planned campaign event in Palm Beach County, FL, on Tuesday, the Palm Beach Post reported.

WSJ: After shots fired, Elon Musk found his moment to endorse Trump

Crypto crashes the RNC: Crypto leaders at the Republican convention will make their case to GOP power brokers. Politico

Rep. Wexton, confronting degenerative disease, finds her voice through AI WP

Politico: Business groups call on Biden to halt rulemaking in light of Chevron deference decision

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Nvidia could reach $50tn market cap in a decade, says top tech investor: FT reports early Tesla and Amazon backer James Anderson sees chipmaker’s potential scale as ‘way higher than I’ve ever seen.’

Samsung’s ‘chip crisis’: AI ambitions hit by unprecedented worker unrest: FT reports the Korean tech giant risks losing disenchanted engineers to domestic rival SK Hynix.

AI can make you more creative—but it has limits: Although it can boost individuals’ creativity, it seems to homogenize and flatten our collective output. Rhiannon Williams

Universities don’t want AI research to leave them behind: Outspent by Big Tech, some academics are focusing on research that requires less computing power, even as they try to build more of it. WSJ

Why AI is so expensive: The push for bigger AI models, and more chips and data centers to support building them, is driving up costs for technology companies. Bloomberg

No, AI won’t use all the electricity: Utilities’ projections of booming energy demand have a habit of not coming true. Justin Fox

Bloomberg: Apple is top pick at Morgan Stanley as AI seen driving iPhone, iPad upgrades

+ Shares have risen 17% since Apple Intelligence reveal

+ Analyst expects 500m iPhones to be shipped over two years

Bloomberg: Amazon brings Rufus AI shopping assistant to all US customers

Even as denim has its moment, Levi’s finds itself trying to catch up: Denim has become fashionable among young consumers, but the trend hasn’t done much for the company synonymous with blue jeans. WP

Evictions surge in major cities in the American Sunbelt: WSJ reports filings in cities including Las Vegas, Houston, and in Phoenix over the past year in a half-dozen cities are up at least 35% from pre-2020 norms.

*** Culture ***

Don’t cancel meetings to be productive, cancel one-on-ones: The CEO of ClickUp learned through this trial-and-error process that the most inefficient and unproductive meetings are one-on-ones, especially among executives. FC

A study in Scarlett: After avenging herself on Disney and OpenAI, Scarlett Johansson stars in a summer rom-com revolving around the race to the moon. NYT

*** Sport ***

Paris, the Olympics, and the reinvention of a city: After a divisive election, this summer’s Games will fire the starting gun on a vast project to transform the French capital. FT

The speed demons who carried Spain to a European championship: Just a few months ago, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams weren’t regular starters for Spain. But at Euro 2024, they became La Roja’s most dangerous weapons on its way to the title. WSJ


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal