Caracal Daily | July 30

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Always Be Communicating.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

NPR: Maduro and opposition both claim victory in Venezuela's presidential election

Venezuela’s autocrat is declared winner in tainted election: NYT reports the result, which would give Nicolás Maduro six more years as president, was disputed by the opposition, and the United States said it had “serious concerns.”

AP: Venezuela’s capital is eerily calm after vote in which Maduro and opposition both claimed victory

WP: World leaders cast doubt on Maduro’s claim of victory in Venezuelan election

Negotiators meet to revive push for hostage release and cease-fire in Gaza: NYT reports the talks in Rome remain stuck over several key issues, including the extent to which Israeli troops should withdraw from Gaza, where tens of thousands were forced under Israeli orders to evacuate Sunday.

NYT: Israel’s security cabinet approves military response to rocket attack from Lebanon

Region braces for Netanyahu to decide Israeli response to Golan Heights strike: WP reports as tensions rise after a deadly rocket attack launched from Lebanon, diplomats are urging restraint to prevent the war in Gaza from spilling into a regional conflict.

Putin, Kim, and the $4 trillion threat on Cold War’s last frontier: South Korea is a semiconductor factory built on top of a geopolitical fault line. War is a very low probability. If it does break out, the human and economic cost would be devastating. Bloomberg

Walking the line: Chinese migration surge tests President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. WP

Can K-pop exist without the K? With prospects for growth limited in its home market, the industry is consciously trying to become less Korean. Bloomberg

A tale of three very different elections: We’ve got a rare opportunity to compare the UK, US and French systems. What have we learnt? FT

Bloomberg: Conservative Party runners and riders: The six candidates to lead Britain’s opposition

+ Kemi Badenoch is favorite to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader

+ Patel, Cleverly, Stride, Tugendhat, Jenrick also contend

Fiber optic networks 'sabotaged' in parts of France: Le Monde reports it was not clear whether there was a link with the coordinated attacks that paralyzed the country's high-speed train network last Friday, hours before the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics.

French far-left groups suspected of being behind Olympics sabotage: FT reports the interior minister says methods in countrywide rail disruptions match leftist extremists’ modus operandi.

Bordeaux locals back ban on ‘unsightly’ cruise ships: The Green mayor has upset business owners with his plan, which aims to cut pollution and stop the vessels spoiling views of the historic city centre. The Times

Italy's Meloni hails China 'important interlocutor' in managing global instability: Le Monde reports the Italian prime minister the two countries must work out 'how to guarantee peace' when she sat down for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday.

EU prepares two-step trade plan to tackle Donald Trump: FT reports if the Republican candidate returns to the White House, Brussels will offer a quick deal then threaten retaliation against tariffs.

Will the AI chatbot wave come for the federal government? Canada's public service is working on its own artificial intelligence strategy. CBC

Trump comeback could see familiar faces re-emerge — and they may spell trouble for Canada: The moderates are out, the true believers are in — and some have picked fights with Canada. CBC

How Canada is defending the place with no dawn: Liam Denning spent 10 days in the Arctic, where the Canadian military is preparing to safeguard its vast, unpopulated mineral-rich territory from emerging threats. Bloomberg

‘Anywhere but Canada’: How a tax ruling could hobble pro teams north of the border The Athletic

Can tyrants be curtailed? Two books examine how today’s autocrats differ from those of the past, and what liberal democracies can do to counter their influence. FT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

AP: Trump and Harris enter 99-day sprint to decide an election that has suddenly transformed

100 days out, Dems are feeling something unusual: Optimism: Politico reports at Vice President Kamala Harris’ first big-dollar fundraiser and across the Sunday shows, Democrats were suddenly energized about a presidential race that brought them nothing but misery over the last month.

How Harris turned the tables on Trump: Many voters had been dreading a rerun of the 2020 election between two ageing men. Now they are being presented with a much sharper contrast. FT

The quiet bond Kamala Harris forged with three VP contenders: The vice president is considering several men who also served as state attorneys general. Those relationships could inform her crucial decision in the days ahead. NYT

Why Vance-ism won’t be the future: Trump’s genius, which is to be rightwing but not pious, is lost on his election running mate. Janan Ganesh

JD Vance stumbles in his debut, as Democrats go on offense: In the 12 days since Ohio’s junior senator was tapped as the future of Donald J. Trump’s movement, old comments and a chorus of derision have blunted any sense of invulnerability. NYT

Inside the powerful Peter Thiel network that anointed JD Vance: A small influential network of right-wing techies orchestrated Vance’s rise in Silicon Valley — and then the GOP. Now the industry stands to gain if he wins the White House. WP

From believers to Bitcoin: 24 hours in Trump’s code-switching campaign: When Donald J. Trump tries to win over a crowd that is not inherently his own, the results can be awkward. NYT
 
Trump cites China competition in vowing to create bitcoin 'stockpile': Reuters reports Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump told a bitcoin conference on Saturday that the US must dominate the sector or China would, his latest move to court advocates of cryptocurrency, which Beijing has restricted and which he once dismissed as a "scam."

Trump became crypto believer after falling in love with NFTs of himself: His cowboy-and-superhero nonfungible tokens led Donald Trump down the digital-asset rabbit hole. He emerged as a crypto advocate, and now industry heavyweights are lining up to return him to the White House. Bloomberg

How Elon Musk came to endorse Donald Trump: The world’s richest man favored Biden in 2020, but he has since become a vocal Trump supporter. WP

How Elon Musk broke with Biden and the Democrats: The split started with a snub at a White House electric-vehicle summit. Things got worse from there. WSJ

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

The Silicon Valley startup using AI to scour the Earth for copper and lithium: KoBold Metals is betting artificial intelligence can change how miners find the metals needed to power the energy transition. WSJ

Hackers race to win millions in contest to thwart cyberattacks with AI: Computer scientists brainstorm in Pentagon-backed competition to design an AI program that scans open-source code for flaws bad actors could exploit. WP

Europe’s answer to OpenAI launched in 2023. Now it’s worth €6bn: After developing artificial intelligence for America’s technology powerhouses, three founders set out to do the same across the Atlantic with Mistral. The Times

Big Tech groups must justify AI investments: Success of Azure will be watched closely when Microsoft releases its figures, with Meta, Amazon, and Apple to follow. Lauren Almeida

What are the threats to the $1trn artificial-intelligence boom? A fast-growing supply chain is at risk of over-extending. Economist

At last, Revolut has a licence to lend. Now for America: After a long struggle, Nikolay Storonsky’s bank has the go-ahead to expand its UK activities. With the US next on the wishlist, a blockbuster listing beckons. The Times

SpaceX, NASA to launch Crew-9 mission next month: Reuters reports SpaceX and NASA said on Friday they plan to launch the space agency's Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station (ISS) no earlier than Aug. 18.

Alzheimer’s blood test shows 90% accuracy, outperforming other exams: WP reports the findings come amid larger efforts to develop a cheap, simple test that can diagnose Alzheimer’s without forcing people to undergo expensive or invasive exams.

Your cup of coffee is already expensive. It’s about to get even worse: Coffee shops around the world, pinching pennies to prevent another round of hikes, are running out of options as bean costs spike. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Keanu Reeves: Turning 60, graphic violence and why I’ve written a novel: When the Hollywood star of The Matrix called the quirky British author China Miéville to suggest writing a book together, he was put on hold. The odd couple reveal how they finally bonded. The Times

*** Sport ***

Inside US Cricket's shocking victory: How an American team of retreads, castoffs, and one software engineer took down a dominant world power. The Atlantic

Needed: English pivot to match greats of Europe – and why there’s hope: England have not had a top-class playmaker in the mould of Sergio Busquets, Luka Modric or Toni Kroos since Paul Scholes 20 years ago, but new talents are emerging. The Times

Paris Olympics broadcasters diverge on AI approach: The Paris Olympics will be a showcase of generative AI for American viewers but European audiences won't see a similar approach, a contrast that reflects how global media companies are deliberating over the use of the technology. Reuters


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal