Caracal Daily | October 7

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Always Be Communicating.

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Over a billion have voted in 2024: has democracy won? Half the world has had elections so far this year. Economist

Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah: New details emerge of Israel’s elaborate plan to sabotage Hezbollah communications devices to kill or maim thousands of its operatives. WP

WSJ: Israel launches new offensive in northern Gaza, orders mass evacuation

NYT: On eve of Oct. 7 anniversary, Israel strikes Gaza and Lebanon

Israel strikes Gaza, Lebanon and renews warnings to Iran: Le Monde reports strikes continued in Gaza and Beirut on Sunday as Israel warned Iran from 'taking action.' Tehran announced a mass cancellation of flights from tonight.

WP: Macron tells Netanyahu directly that it’s ‘time for a cease-fire’ as airstrikes pound Beirut suburbs

How the push to avert a broader war in Lebanon fell apart: Diplomats thought both Israel and Hezbollah supported a call for a temporary cease-fire. Then Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader. NYT

How the US-Israel relationship actually works: What does the Biden Administration want Netanyahu to do in Lebanon and Gaza? TNY 

'I want to go home': Ukrainians flee Russia's advance in Donbas: Thousands of people evacuated the city of Pokrovsk and the surrounding area after it was hit by intense fighting. Relocated to temporary shelters in the Dnipro region, these displaced people have had to rebuild everything. Le Monde

Ruben Brekelmans, the Dutch defence minister, pledged €400m ($440m) towards the development of Ukraine’s drone programme while visiting Kyiv.

Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: ‘So far, we have called Putin’s bluff’: The Norwegian politician on his decade as a KGB contact, crossing Russia’s red lines — and what comes next for Ukraine. FT

Tories remain the ‘party party.’ Time for a bouncer. More of the same could doom Conservatives to a long stay in the wilderness or even organizational collapse. They better get this leadership contest right. Martin Ivens

The Times: Sue Gray resigns as Starmer’s chief of staff

UK prime minister’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, resigns: NYT reports Gray said intense media scrutiny of her role meant she “risked becoming a distraction” to the new Labour government.

How she lost No 10 power battle — and what comes next The Times

Eric Schmidt: Google’s ex-CEO to join PM at UK investment summit: Starmer moves to ease the gloom and declare Britain open for business. The Times

‘Q’ review: Playing Queen Elizabeth: The Queen confessed she once wanted to be an actress. She achieved her ambition, ‘But always the same role.’ WSJ

Cement is a big polluter. A plant in Norway hopes to clean it up. Heidelberg Materials is betting it can profit from an expensive process that will reduce the carbon dioxide emitted from one of the world’s most polluting industries. NYT

Germany ‘reopens old wounds’ with border checks: FT reports Berlin’s decision risks hampering borderless travel in Schengen area.

Europe's obsession with immigration: Le Monde reports while irregular arrivals have fallen by 39% since the start of 2024, European leaders on both the right and left are not hesitating to borrow ideas that the far right has been advocating for 40 years.

Is Europe becoming ungovernable? Political fragmentation is paralyzing the continent’s largest economies. WSJ

Oliver Blume, Volkswagen’s boss, warned that the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles approved by the EU on Friday could endanger the German auto industry in an interview with Bild am Sonntag, a German newspaper.

Bloomberg: VW CEO sees threat of retaliatory tariffs from China, Bild says

+ Blume proposes exempting certain companies from tariffs

+ EU targets Chinese-made EVs over claims of unfair subsidies

With the handover of the Chagos Islands, the UK cedes part of its colonial past in the Indian Ocean: Le Monde reports the Republic of Mauritius had been claiming sovereignty over these islands for over 50 years. The agreement signed by Keir Starmer's government allows the UK to keep the military base it leases to the US Army. 

New Zealand navy ship sinks after hitting reef: The Times reports Commander Yvonne Gray, the British-born master of MNZS Manawanui, is praised for saving lives by ordering the 75 crew and passengers to abandon ship off Samoa.

Indian companies move in as US cuts China out of its solar industry: FT reports Washington weighs more tariffs on imports after flood of Chinese panels drove global prices to record lows.

Today: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. 

South Korea wakes up to the next K-wave: The 'silver economy': After pop culture, goods and services for the elderly tipped to be next Korean big thing. Nikkei

Tuesday: China's mainland stock exchanges reopen after a weeklong holiday.

Chinese hackers accessed the networks of US broadband providers and obtained information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized wiretapping, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.4% in the three months to the end of September compared with the same period a year earlier. 

Wednesday: Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues.

Nikkei: What is syphilis and why is it spreading in Japan?

+ Nearly 60% of women infected are in their 20s, including pregnant mothers

Wednesday: Japan dissolves its lower house ahead of early elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament.

Thursday: Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech.

Haiti seeks ‘urgent’ reinforcement of Kenya-led force to fight gangs: Acting prime minister Garry Conille says police have not restored order yet in ‘one neighbourhood.’ FT

What America’s presidential election means for world trade: The first in a series of eight concise briefs on the consequences of the 2024 election. Economist

***  US Politics + Elections ***

WSJ: Milton upgraded to hurricane as it heads for Florida

Florida prepares to evacuate millions of people ahead of another potential hurricane: Politico reports the state is still recovering from Helene, which made landfall less than two weeks ago.

WP: Another major storm in Florida may test FEMA’s capacity

US official says ‘dangerous’ disinformation hampers storm recovery: FT reports Trump campaign has attacked Kamala Harris with unproven claims about the Hurricane Helene relief effort.

Bloomberg: House Speaker says Congress can wait for Helene damage needs

+ GOP’s Johnson says specific aid requests take time to compile

+ Politics surrounding Hurricane Helene inflamed by election

Trump’s speeches, increasingly angry and rambling, reignite the question of age: With the passage of time, the 78-year-old former president’s speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past, according to a review of his public appearances over the years. NYT

Trump pitches watches, crypto and his wife's book in the campaign's final weeks: NBC News reports conflict-of-interest concerns have long swirled around Trump’s mixing of business and politics. But his recent promotions have been unusual given how close the election is.

Bloomberg: Oil moguls emerge as key cash source for Trump as race nears end

+ MOGA = Make Oil Great Again

Big Oil urges Trump not to gut Biden’s climate law: WSJ reports oil companies try to persuade Trump and his Republican allies not to slash provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act potentially worth billions.

Democrats try ‘Trump-proofing’ their states ahead of Election Day: WP reports from Washington to Massachusetts, blue states are rushing to protect their policy priorities from the reach of a potential second Trump administration.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is “begging” wife Cheryl Hines not to file for divorce in the wake of his alleged “personal relationship” with journalist Olivia Nuzzi, People magazine reports.

The swing state battles that will win the US election: From a ‘blue wall’ to the American desert, these are the places where the 2024 presidential race will be decided. FT

Why I stopped making election forecasts: The shocks of recent times have shown the rational voter is a myth. Simon Kuper

War Game TV review — gripping BBC doc simulates a fictional coup in America: Former politicians and military veterans on how the US would deal with a replay of 2021’s Capitol attack. FT

Politico: Senator-not-yet-elect Schiff is already boosting likely future colleagues

Senate Republicans’ strangely uneven spending map: Politico reports the distribution of ad spending for Senate GOP candidates is highly lopsided, with a massive amount focused on Pennsylvania.

WP: Dockworkers union asserts ‘absolute, airtight’ anti-automation stance

Mapping the Carville era, from Bill Clinton’s alter ego to Joe Biden’s bete noire: The legendary political consultant had just completed a documentary on his career. Then came its most consequential chapter in 30 years. Politico

‘Citizen Nation’ review: Mastering the Constitution on PBS: Also streaming on YouTube and Prime Video, this four-part documentary follows high-schoolers competing in ‘We the People,’ which tests young people’s civics knowledge. WSJ

The racist AI deepfake that fooled and divided a community: When an audio clip appeared to show a local school principal making derogatory comments, it went viral online, sparked death threats against the educator and sent ripples through a suburb outside the city of Baltimore. But it was soon exposed as a fake, manipulated by artificial intelligence - so why do people still believe it’s real? BBC

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

AI-generated images can teach robots how to act: Gen AI models aren’t just good for creating pictures—they can be fine-tuned to generate useful robot training data, too. Rhiannon Williams

Google’s grip on search slips as TikTok and AI startup mount challenge: WSJ reports as new offerings for advertisers arrive, Google’s share of the US search ad market is projected by one research firm to drop below 50% next year.

Big AI thins out the competition as startups quit the race to build large language models Fortune

Foxconn beat expectations to post its highest-ever revenue for the third quarter on strong demand for artificial intelligence servers.

What the heck is going on At OpenAI? As executives flee with warnings of danger, the company says it will plow ahead. THR

Bloomberg: Khosla says OpenAI’s team is strong, despite departures

It’s time to stop taking Sam Altman at his word: Understand AI for what it is, not what it might become. David Karpf

Grindr aims to build the dating world’s first AI ‘wingman’: WSJ reports the dating app is testing an AI bot for gay and bi men that would scout for long-term relationship prospects, set up dates—and even date other wingmen for you.

Even the ‘godmother of AI’ has no idea what AGI is TC

A glossary for the AI revolution: Every advance in artificial intelligence comes with a confusing plethora of arcane terminology. Here’s a guide to distinguish your AGIs from your GPTs. Bloomberg

I’m a doctor. ChatGPT’s bedside manner is better than mine. Dr. Jonathan Reisman

Pentagon contracts for $96M in Oura smart rings, services: DefenseScoop reports in addition to putting the smart ring on the hands of service members, the contract also provides a suite of data analytics services the Pentagon can use to take action on the biometric information generated by the devices.

‘The Driving Machine’ review: How the world got on a roll: Carmakers tried all sorts of tricks to make their cars more appealing. Carl Benz’s first one looked like a birdcage. WSJ

Meet the HENRYS: The six-figure earners who don’t feel rich: When you’re a HENRY—high earner, not rich yet—a hefty salary isn’t enough to buy freedom from financial pressure. WSJ

*** SOTD *** 

The Revolution Will Not Be Televised by Gil Scott-Heron Spotify

*** Culture ***

Money buys happiness, even if you’re already rich: A 10% raise delivers a similar boost in satisfaction across income levels, research finds. WSJ

WSJ: $200 million ‘Joker’ sequel is a box office bust

Bring on the Oscars chaos: The 2025 Academy Awards race will be the most wide-open movie season in years. I can’t wait. Nate Jones

*** Sport ***

‘Why We Love Football’ Review: America’s national pastime: The author of ‘Why We Love Baseball’ turns his attention from the diamond to the gridiron. WSJ

Mauricio Pochettino's first USMNT roster may be disappointing, but it makes sense Nancy Armour

US hiring Pochettino shows serious ambition Chris Richards


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal