Caracal Daily | August 12

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

As Ukrainian forces grab Russian territory, the Kremlin maintains it’s no big deal: WSJ reports the Ukrainian thrust into Russia’s Kursk region raises questions about Moscow’s military capabilities and where Vladimir Putin’s red lines really lie.

Kursk governor calls for quicker evacuation: DW reports the acting governor of Russia's Kursk oblast called for civilians to be moved from unsafe areas more quickly amid a Ukrainian incursion. Meanwhile, a man and his child were killed in a strike near Kyiv.

Fire breaks out at cooling tower of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Le Monde reports that Ukraine's interior minister said it was "intensively monitoring" the situation from meteorological stations near the plant, which is Europe's largest nuclear power station.

NATO’s weak spot against Russia facing a choice to take up arms: The undefended Aland Islands in the Baltic Sea have long been a gap in Europe’s shield. Remilitarisation could turn them into one of the West’s key defenses. The Times

Vladimir Putin spends big—and sends Russia’s economy soaring: How long can the party last? Economist

Macron looks to use Olympic 'political truce' to hone his plan for a new prime minister: Emmanuel Macron is spending some time at the presidential holiday residence in southern France, still looking for a prime minister who could create consensus on both the left and right. Le Monde

Left-wing candidate Lucie Castets' strange campaign for France's premiership: Over the two weeks since her name burst onto the French political scene, the Nouveau Front Populaire's candidate for prime minister has been thrust into the limelight and is trying to forge a reputation for herself. Le Monde

UN credibility depends on adjusting veto rights to match the shift in global power: Imagine the poetic justice if the UK were to cede its UNSC seat in favor of India.Kishore Mahbubani

The Philippines accused China of “dangerous and provocative actions” by two of its aircraft, which it said had dropped flares in the path of a Philippine plane patrolling the South China Sea.

China courts developing nations in its push to build a new world order WP

Reuters: China's drivers fret as robotaxis pick up pace - and passengers

Multinationals sound alarm over weak demand in China: The World’s second-biggest economy is slowing, appetite for foreign brands has weakened, and local competition is intense. FT

China’s nightmare: A second trade war with Trump: China’s struggling economy is overly reliant on exports, making it more vulnerable to the punishing tariffs the Republican presidential nominee is proposing. WSJ

China court rulings on AI accelerate race to set standards: Judges establish precedents on voice and images as Beijing embraces the tech. Nikkei

US lawmakers move to restrict trade provision favored by China’s e-commerce giants: A bipartisan group wants to make it harder for companies such as Shein and Temu to ship their products stateside. WSJ

Nikkei: 'Ban Korea' movement drives Thai tourists to China, Japan

+ Some Thais are angry that South Korean immigration agents seem to be indiscriminately taking away their much-anticipated vacations

+ South Korean travel industry says boycott has been unnoticed

Nippon Steel pivots away from China to zero in on US, India: US Steel acquisition and Indian blast furnaces critical to expansion. Nikkei

Thursday: Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are due to speak at a ceremony to mark the 79th anniversary of Japan’s Second World War surrender at Nippon Budokan.

Sunday: Singapore's Wong delivers key speech

+ Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers his first National Day Rally address, an event seen as the city-state's most important political speech of the year, spelling out key economic and social policies.

Today: Jokowi cabinet meets in the new capital

+ Indonesian President Joko Widodo is slated to hold his first cabinet meeting in Nusantara, the country's planned new capital city being built on Borneo island.

Thursday: Taliban takeover anniversary 

+ Thursday marks the third anniversary of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, amid increasing restrictions against women and a worsening economic crisis.

Thursday: Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of his country’s independence from British rule in 1947.

Kenya: What next for Gen Z's digital revolution? In Kenya, youth-led protests and political debates have surged on social media, raising fears of surveillance and fake news. Online platforms are now at the forefront of activism and dissent. DW

Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu: ‘America was colonised too and look at where they are’: The proponent of ‘Africapitalism’ on the legacy of imperialism — and why he’s getting into the business of oil. FT

In secret talks, US offers amnesty to Maduro for ceding power: WSJ reports the long-shot American efforts are fueled by an opposition attempt to document the Venezuelan leader’s overwhelming defeat at the polls.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Trump, by the numbers Maureen Dowd

WP: Trump isn’t campaigning as hard as he used to

WP: Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris

WP: Trump campaign says it is victim of foreign hack after leak of a report on Vance

The hacking of presidential campaigns begins, with the usual fog of motives: NYT reports Donald J. Trump says his campaign was hacked by the Iranians, but obtained publicly available data. Microsoft said Iranian hackers sent a spear phishing email to a “high-ranking official” on a presidential campaign.

WP: Trump falsely accuses Harris campaign of fabricated AI crowd photos

Today: Former president Donald Trump expected to be interviewed by Elon Musk.

WP: Elon Musk’s X feed becomes megaphone for his far-right politics

Elon Musk’s embrace of Trump is turning off these Tesla lovers: WP reports drivers who have bought or considered buying Tesla vehicles are now eyeing EVs from competitors, partially because of Musk’s polarizing persona, provocative online posts, and recent endorsement of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Why I no longer crave a Tesla: Elon Musk’s antics are turning off the most obvious customers for his cars. Pilita Clark

FT: Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump on the US economy

+ FT Michigan Ross poll shows Democratic candidate leading on the issue for first time in nearly a year

WSJ: Harris calls for no taxes on tips, borrowing a Trump idea

Democrats push Sam Altman on OpenAI’s safety record: Senators demanded answers about whistleblowers and conflicts of interest. The Verge

Bari Weiss knows exactly what she’s doing: The founder of The Free Press has built a new media empire by persuading audiences that she is a teller of dangerous truths. NYT

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Google and Meta struck secret ads deal to target teenagers: FT reports the campaign on YouTube to boost Instagram’s appeal to young people skirted search group’s rules for marketing to under-18s.

Why Nvidia is still the undisputed king of AI Christopher Mims

The new AI deal: Buy everything but the company: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have made deals with AI start-ups for their technology and top employees, but have shied from owning the firms. Here’s why. NYT

Where have OpenAI’s founders gone? Only two of 11 co-founders of ChatGPT maker are still active at the $86bn company after a series of exits this year. FT

How Microsoft spread its bets beyond OpenAI: The tech giant has worked to execute an AI strategy independent of Sam Altman’s start-up following a leadership crisis last year. FT

How Elon Musk is using his empire to kickstart xAI: WSJ reports the billionaire is mobilizing resources around artificial intelligence. Some Tesla shareholders are suing to make him stop

Bilingual dictation assistant Silvia understands ‘Spanglish’ and other language mixtures: TC reports natural language AI assistants tend to be excellent English speakers, and passable in other tongues — but if you are one of the millions who fluidly switch between two languages on the fly, they’re stumped. A new AI helper called Silvia, however, understands “Spanglish” just fine, with more language combos to come.

Can you be emotionally reliant on an AI voice? OpenAI says yes. NYT reports a report acknowledged that users of GPT-4o forms unusual bonds with the software’s voice response feature, which the company says warrants further study.

Tuesday: Made by Google event, launching Google’s latest devices, including the Pixel smartphone. 

+ A teaser video released in June said “AI . . . meet IX”

WSJ: Former YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki dies at age 56

Engineered dust could help make Mars habitable: Restoring water on Mars may be easier than you think. Economist

Honda, Nissan to recycle plastic from scrapped cars: Nikkei reports that proposed environmental rules in Europe drive push to create supply chains.

Disney unveils billions of dollars in theme park expansions: WSJ reports the Experiences division reveals specific plans for new rides and attractions that die-hard fans have been waiting on.

Bloomberg: Disney plots villains-themed land, new ships in big resorts push

+ No region is left out of the $60 billion investment spurt

+ Details are unveiled as slowdown hits Disney’s famed parks

Why is a New York hospital setting up its own movie studio? Northwell Health has launched a production company to develop documentaries, films, and TV shows. WSJ

*** Culture ***

Why schools are racing to ban student phones: As the new school year starts, a wave of new laws that aim to curb distracted learning is taking effect in Indiana, Louisiana and other states. NYT

*** Sport ***

The Olympics needed a reset. Merci to Paris for providing it. These Summer Games were exactly what the whole enterprise needed and came in a style no other city could provide. Barry Svrluga

What can Olympians teach executives? Citius, altius, spurious. Economist

He’s the biggest fanboy at the Olympics. He’s also the president of France. WSJ reports the Paris Games have been one long checklist of sweaty hugs and ecstatic fist pumps for Emmanuel Macron. But once the Olympic honeymoon ends, he’s waking up to a nightmare.

Olympics committee boss Bach to step down, Coe considers bid: DW reports Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee, has said he will not be seeking a third term. Among the candidates to replace him is World Athletics chief Sebastian Coe.

Bloomberg: Los Angeles sees remote work helping ‘no car’ 2028 Olympic Games

+ California city is preparing to host its third summer Games

+ Paris mayor to hand off Olympic flag to LA’s Bass on Sunday

The rise of women’s sports unlocks unexpected sponsorships: Unknown startups, female-focused companies, and other brands with no prior dealings with sports are being named official sponsors of women’s leagues and teams. WSJ

WP: MLB will play a game inside a NASCAR speedway. How will that work?

Friday: English Premier League football season opens with Manchester United vs Fulham.

The fake Indian cricket league created for real online betting: A shopkeeper in rural Gujarat persuaded some farmers to play in a tournament with manipulated outcomes. The scam traced all the way to Russia. Bloomberg


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal