Caracal Daily | September 17

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

China, America, and a global struggle for power and influence: The whole world risks losing from the rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Gideon Rachman

America needs a better strategy on semiconductors: Export controls are necessary, but they are not a complete competitive strategy. Meghan Harris

Reuters: Biden to host Quad summit September 21 in Delaware

+ "The Quad Leaders Summit will focus on bolstering the strategic convergence among our countries, advancing our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and delivering concrete benefits for partners in the Indo-Pacific in key areas," White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.

+ The Quad is the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.

German Navy says it exercised right to pass through Taiwan Strait: Nikkei reports two naval ships stop at Manila as nations bolster defense cooperation.

CNN: Washington and Seoul discussing new deal on cost sharing for US troops in South Korea ahead of a potential Trump election victory

Beijing releases long-jailed US citizen: Politico reports California resident David Lin is free after spending 18 years in prison.

China struggles to build new companies: A new Financial Times report that cites data showing a 99% decline in businesses started in China from 2018 to 2023 sheds light on its entrepreneurial struggles. One executive in Beijing told the publication that "the whole industry has just died before our eyes."

Singapore to 'mop up' finance business leaving Hong Kong: report: EIU says Japan and India also to benefit amid Chinese markets' challenges. Nikkei

The Houthis hit Israel again: The missile threat from Iran’s proxy is growing, and imagine what it will be when Tehran gets a nuclear weapon. WSJ - Editorial

The crude system of coded messages keeping Hamas’s leader alive: WSJ reports Yahya Sinwar’s use of low-tech communications has vexed Israel’s efforts to kill him.

‘Sprinkled with our blood’: Why so many Ukrainians resist land for peace: Any “land for peace” deal would likely seal the fate of Donbas, which has been mired by conflict and separatism stoked by Moscow since the war there began a decade ago. WP

Russia ramps up air assault on Ukrainian cities: NYT reports an attack on Kyiv was the eighth on the Ukrainian capital in about two weeks, officials said, adding that most Russian drones had been intercepted.

France's ambiguous stance on deep strikes in Russia: Le Monde reports Ukrainians want to disrupt Russian logistics at the rear of the front line. France remains in the background of these discussions against a backdrop of political turbulence in Paris.

AFP: Britain and Italy agree to deepen security cooperation, says UK's Starmer

Fortune: Greece spends €1 billion a year on pro-child policies as dwindling birth rates create new headaches for the country

Why Europe is embracing the new American growth model: Following the trail of the US will require more government intervention in industrial and trade policy. WSJ

The calamitous rape crisis unfolding in Congo’s war: WSJ reports around 80% of women in camps for the displaced have been raped in brutal attacks, as international attention wanes. ‘If the war ends, I won’t have to be raped anymore.’

Brazil wants to be a climate champion and an oil giant. Can it be both? Lula has staked his international reputation on the environment, but he must also find the money to alleviate poverty at home. FT

Argentina’s Javier Milei promises to eliminate budget deficit in 2025: FT reports the libertarian president insists country must learn to live within its means.

Fed enters tricky terrain: Rate cuts in a decent economy: WSJ reports lower rates should filter through to credit cards, mortgages and savings. The question is how, exactly.

Why Biden’s multibillion-dollar plan to build America’s next tech powerhouses is getting starved: The national, bipartisan Tech Hubs program could have been a campaign winner. Instead, it’s underfunded and barely present on the political stage — and anxious awardees are “holding their breath” for November. Politico

‘Buy America’ feud risks 200 mile-an-hour rail from Vegas to LA Bloomberg

+ Alstom lawsuit may complicate Brightline West’s 2028 timeline

+ Siemens chose NY site for factory to build high-speed trains

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Another attempt to kill Trump raises fears of political violence: The Economist reports Republicans and Democrats must again try to avoid politicizing a failed assassination.

+ President Joe Biden said America’s Secret Service will be given “every resource” to protect Donald Trump after an apparent second assassination attempt. 

Trump seeks to rally support after possible second assassination attempt: WP reports an email to campaign staff urged vigilance about security as the golf course episode raised new concerns.

'From this side of the Atlantic, Trump can seem like an anomaly, but he has taken the measure of a profound American anxiety': Le Monde's former correspondent in Washington, Gilles Paris, answered readers' questions after an apparent second assassination attempt targeted Trump on Sunday. Le Monde

Trump, GOP fuel conspiracy theories: Eating pets, a rigged debate, and QAnon: WP reports led by their presidential nominee, Republicans have increasingly embraced false tales and groundless claims once relegated to the political fringes. Some in the party are worried.

Five days in Ohio: False immigrant rumors threaten to unravel an American town on the upswing: Local residents say the town’s economic upswing has come with growing pains, and its comeback story has been overshadowed by lies about its Haitian population. NBC News

The 5 most important economic questions CEOs still have for Harris and Trump Fortune

Majority of voters like Trump’s plan for tariffs: Donald Trump’s campaign vow to increase tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, has the support of a narrow majority of US voters, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

CBS News: Trump plans to announce the World Liberty Financial crypto exchange

Donald Trump’s unlikely weed wager: Politico reports the former president’s pro-cannabis policies could bolster his efforts to gain support with key Democratic constituencies.

Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC ramps up swing state operations: WP reports America PAC has spent more than $30 million since mid-August, including on mailers targeting voters in North Carolina.

Elon Musk writes, then deletes, a post musing about threats to Biden and Harris: NYT reports his remark, just hours after what authorities said was a second assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump, immediately drew outrage.

Kamala Harris’ old condo is now San Francisco’s hottest Airbnb.

Big energy issue in Pennsylvania is low natural gas prices. Not fracking. NYT reports energy businesses and farmers in western Pennsylvania are struggling because of prices, an issue that has not figured prominently in the campaigns of Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris.

Bloomberg: NYC mayor’s top allies are quitting as probes, pressures mount

+ Chief counsel to mayor’s office resigned on Saturday night

+ Mayor’s approval ratings mired at lows before reelection bid

The widening crisis surrounding New York Mayor Eric Adams: WSJ reports City Hall’s chief counsel stepped down Saturday, as probes expand in America’s biggest city, with four agencies now involved.

TikTok launches fight for its life in court: Politico reports with the clock ticking on a potential ban, the ultra-popular app is politically more important than ever.

Bloomberg: TikTok fights US ‘sale-or-ban’ law in key appeals court faceoff

+ Video-sharing app faces ban over China ties unless it is sold

+ Owner ByteDance had pledged to take fight to Supreme Court

TikTok’s US future hangs in the balance in court: WSJ reports appeals court to weigh law that could shut down Chinese-backed app used by half of Americans.

WP: TikTok fights ban in court as Harris and Trump campaigns embrace the app

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

15 AI trends of 2024 Mashaid Ahmed

9 things you need to know about OpenAI’s powerful new AI model o1 Fortune

The new followup to ChatGPT is scarily good at deception: The safety paradox at the heart of OpenAI’s “Strawberry” model. Vox

Bloomberg: Google Pixel 9 Pro, Watch 3 offer unrevolutionary AI

AI wearable promises to help you remember everything: But is your privacy safe? Fox News

Regulating AI is easier than you think Paul Scharre

AI boom is driving a surprise resurgence of US gas-fired power: New gas plants just keep on coming, defying expectations that their rapid growth was nearing an end. Bloomberg

$84bn: Intel’s current market value, down from over $210bn in January.

Why Washington and Big Oil are investing billions in ammonia: Capturing carbon makes the chemical cleaner, boosting its popularity for fertilizer and fuel. WSJ

Fortune: So long London? Goldman Sachs is turning to Birmingham and Warsaw for talent in lower-cost European cities

Reuters:  Commerzbank snubs overtures for UniCredit takeover 

Inside the routine of Red Lobster’s 35-year-old CEO from when he ran PF Chang’s Fortune

To catch up in EVs, Detroit needs to invite China in: There’s lots Ford and GM could learn from the likes of BYD about building affordable electric cars. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Robert Caro reflects on ‘The Power Broker’ and its legacy at 50: Caro’s book on Robert Moses, a city planner who reshaped New York, is also a reflection on “the dangers of unchecked power,” and remains more resonant and relevant than ever. NYT

Is streetwear finally over? Off-White, a streetwear beacon, came to New York with a new designer. Can it ever regain its influence? WP

‘Shōgun’ and ‘The Bear’ dominate the Emmys: WSJ reports the 17th-century Japanese drama and the chaotic kitchen series broke awards records, but in a surprise, ‘Hacks’ won best comedy.

*** Sport ***

The surprise team marching all over the NFL: The New Orleans Saints are off to a historic start after destroying the Dallas Cowboys in a week highlighted by upsets and an improbable deep-passing barrage. WSJ

How Ferrari became genuine rival to McLaren (just in time for Hamilton): Italian team may decide where drivers title ends up this season, and are very much in contention for constructors’ championship themselves, which bodes well with British driver joining in 2025. The Times

Manchester City's 'trial of the century' opens in England: The Mancunian club is facing 115 charges before a Premier League committee for breaching UEFA's financial fair play rules between 2009 and 2018. Le Monde


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal