Caracal Daily | September 23

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

WP: Hezbollah enters ‘new phase’ against Israel; Netanyahu vows to do ‘whatever it takes’

US warns Israel against full-scale war with Hizbollah: FT reports exchanges of fire between Lebanese militant group and Israel are some of the most fierce since October 7.

Bloomberg: Israelis fear attack from restive West Bank will spark wider war

+ Communities wary of falling victim to Oct. 7-style attacks

+ Jewish settler violence stokes animosity in West Bank

Israel and Hizbullah creep closer to all-out war: But Israel does not yet have the forces in place to invade. Economist

Israel and Hezbollah slide toward full-scale war in night of intense strikes: WSJ reports the militant group said it targeted an air base and a developer of Israel's Iron Dome system, while dozens of Israeli warplanes struck southern Lebanon.

Israel’s new Hezbollah strategy: Israel shows the damage the Iran-backed militia will suffer in a full-scale war. WSJ - Editorial

What is Hezbollah’s strategy — and can Israel force a truce? If audacity alone could nudge a sworn enemy towards Netanyahu’s strategic ends, he would be well on the way. The reality is much tougher. Mark Urban

Israel raided the offices of Al Jazeera, a Qatar-based news outlet, in the West Bank, and ordered it to close down for an initial period of 45 days.

On Ukraine’s Snake Island, the heart of the battle for the Black Sea: The Wall Street Journal was granted rare access to the patch of land that Ukraine recaptured in summer 2022. WSJ

WP: Zelensky to appeal to Biden’s legacy in plea to lift Ukraine weapons limits

WP: With nuclear option unlikely, Putin struggles to defend his red lines

How to beat online poker: Russian group won big with AI: How a card-playing Siberian AI outsmarted the world’s brightest researchers and raked in millions. Bloomberg

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a Marxist MP, won Sri Lanka’s presidential election after a second round of counting. He defeated Sajith Premadasa, the opposition leader, and Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent.

Neo-Marxist Dissanayake wins Sri Lanka election: FT reports outsider rides anti-establishment wave with pledge to root out dynastic corruption while abiding by $3bn IMF bailout.

Marxist leader to become Sri Lanka's next president: Le Monde reports Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, the 55-year-old leader of the People's Liberation Front, was declared the winner of the weekend's election with nearly 1.3 million more votes than his nearest rival.

Modi calls India's diaspora its 'strongest ambassadors' in NY speech: Nikkei reports the Indian PM announces 2 new US consulates ahead of UN General Assembly.

Vietnam leader's first US visit: Vietnam's new top leader To Lam is scheduled to speak at Columbia University when he visits the US for the UN General Assembly. The New York trip marks his debut on the global stage since becoming the fast-growing country's Communist Party general secretary in July.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) releases its flagship Asian Development Outlook, providing a crucial forecast for the region's economic trajectory and shedding light on potential growth drivers and challenges.

Roche CEO calls industrial subsides a ‘waste of money’: Severin Schwan criticized the subsidies that the US and European governments are using to boost their manufacturing industries against competition from China and other nations. WSJ

Why Europe needs a foreign economic policy: Current EU structures discourage joined-up thinking in pursuing geostrategic goals. Martin Sandbu 

Wednesday: EU vote on China EV tariffs: The European Union's 27 members are due to vote on proposed final tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as the bloc aims to counter Beijing's subsidization of its EV industry.

Angela Rayner: I don’t believe I broke rules over Lord Alli holiday: The Times reports the deputy prime minister didn’t declare that Sam Tarry, then MP for Ilford South, accompanied her at  Manhattan apartment but tells the BBC she has been “transparent.”

London’s ultra-rich flee the threat of rising taxes: Labour’s looming triple-whammy to the rich has sped up emigration plans among some of the UK’s well-heeled residents. Bloomberg

Will AI solve the UK’s growth problem? Don’t be so sure: AI might one day follow earlier technological innovations in boosting productivity, including in public services, but it could be agonisingly slow. Diane Coyle

Belfast’s Grand Central Station creates new era for Northern Ireland’s public transport: Bloomberg repotts the new facility expands capacity and integrates train and bus travel.

The revelation of Ireland by Diarmaid Ferriter review — a nation reborn: The Celtic tiger boom years, a debt crisis and a reckoning with industrial-scale child abuse — the past three decades have brought dramatic change. The Times

Barnier government confirms Macron's shift to the right: Le Monde reports the team put together by the new prime minister combines Macron loyalists with a dozen elected representatives from the most conservative right. It's a far cry from the social-democratic roots of Emmanuel Macron's early supporters.

Duo of Macron loyalists at helm of France's Economy and Finance Ministry will ensure continuity: Le Monde reports the hirty-three-year-old Antoine Armand will be in charge of the economy, while 39-year-old Laurent Saint-Martin will try to pass a budget.

Bloomberg: Lula seeks to lead push for global AI rules during Brazil’s G20

+ Brazilian president sees need for Global South voice in debate

+ Consensus remains elusive on how to regulate the technology

Looming US ports strike threatens fresh supply chain crisis: FT reports business groups warn of ‘devastating impact’ on economy if dockworkers walk off the job.

AFP: 'Convergence' growing on global plastics treaty: UN environment chief

The path to global carbon pricing: To tackle climate change, the polluter pays principle needs to spread further and wider. FT - Editorial

The Biden administration is fighting smugglers of a potent greenhouse gas: Since the start of this fiscal year alone, Customs and Border Protection agents have confiscated 211,000 metric tons of planet-warming chemicals. Bloomberg

US worries deepen as adversaries team up to challenge dominance Bloomberg

+ Tighter ties among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea alarm US

+ US global leverage under pressure as rivals push for influence

Trump and Harris have no plans for a world on fire: The foreign policies of the last eight years aren’t sufficient for dealing with two hot wars and a cold one. Hal Brands

US and Taiwan seek to strengthen drone supply chain to keep out China: FT reports co-operation would be part of wider western ‘de-risking’ because of security fears over Chinese products.

The Chinese chipmaker at the heart of the US-China tech war: Efforts by the Beijing-backed Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, or SMIC, to break through innovation barriers have landed it in a geopolitical tech battle. NYT

War in the age of AI demands new weaponry: We must develop now what we need to be ready to fight in the future. Eric Schmidt

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Kamala Harris + Donald Trump are both considering “60 Minutes” interviews that would air back-to-back on Oct. 7 as a campaign grand finale, Axios reports.

WP: Harris campaign accepts Oct. 23 CNN debate, but Trump calls date ‘too late’

Bloomberg: Harris shows momentum in two polls while swing states stay tight

+ Gap closing among voters who care most about the economy

+ Vice President’s favorability skyrockets from July in NBC poll

In Michigan, Democrats hope to benefit from a post-Biden surge of youth energy: NYT reports Democrats in the battleground state are counting on a sea change in the mood of young voters that could bolster their candidates in critical races that will determine who controls Congress.

+ “He’s just deranged.” -- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), talking about Donald Trump on CNN.

The Hill: More than 700 high-ranking national security officials endorse Harris 

Harris makes undercover push to win over corporate America: WSJ reports Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned on holding big business accountable but has privately sought advice from CEOs and investors.

Georgia Democrats fear for democracy under Trump. Republicans say Harris threatens prosperity. WSJ reports election-interference charges against former President Donald Trump in Atlanta, after his claims of fraud in 2020, make the issue of “democracy” more salient—and more divisive.

Controversies erupt as Trump and GOP make critical push to voters: A Republican who reportedly called himself a “Black Nazi,” a false story about migrants eating cats and dogs, and a feud with Taylor Swift bring back a sense of chaos. NYT

Springfield, its cats and Haitian migrants reflect the deep polarization of the US: This Ohio town has been the center of attention ever since Donald Trump, during his debate against Kamala Harris, peddled his running mate's false accusations against the Haitian community and local pets. Le Monde

Trump’s pet-eating rant was an effective act of misdirection: The former US president knows how to get everybody talking—for better or worse. Bloomberg

NYT: Mark Robinson’s top aides resign after his reported online remarks

Republican Party kamikazes: In North Carolina and DC, the party’s suicidal impulses are on display. WSJ - Editorial

Republicans boost Jill Stein as potential Harris spoiler: WSJ reports Green Party candidate says she is challenging the two-party system. She also hired a consulting firm that has worked with Republicans.

It’s still the economy, stupid, says Clinton’s mastermind: Americans are struggling with soaring prices. James Carville, the so-called Ragin’ Cajun, warns that Kamala Harris needs to convince people they will be better off. The Times

A changed Montana may decide control of the US Senate: Republicans are trying to seize control of the US Senate by ousting Jon Tester, the last Democrat holding statewide office in a state that not long ago had many of them. NYT

Election day is already here for some US voters as states open the polls early: FT reports Tens of millions of Americans will have cast their ballots before polling day on November 5.

Lobbyists exploit massive loophole to wine and dine lawmakers, aides at fancy getaways: Leading the way is the nonprofit Congressional Institute, which is run by veteran Republican staffers and funded by $3 million in annual dues from private interest groups. Politico

Google to present defense in antitrust trial: WSJ reports the company will lay out its defense in the civil case against its ad business, after the Justice Department argued that Google’s internal communications support its claims of illegal monopolization.

The American Economic Association snubs Hayek: But a Marxist and DEI get plenty of attention at the annual scholarly conference. Mark Skousen

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Electricity that costs nothing—or even less? It’s happening more and more: A big increase in wind and solar power has pushed wholesale prices to zero or below for many hours of the year, spurring a sea change in the way people use power in some parts of the world. WSJ

WP: Microsoft deal would reopen Three Mile Island nuclear plant to power AI

Microsoft AI needs so much power it's tapping site of US nuclear meltdown: Bloomberg reports Constellation to invest $1.6 billion to restart dormant reactor as data-center power demand surges.

Salesforce Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said his company’s newly introduced artificial intelligence software is a complete package for business customers seeking to take advantage of the emerging technology.

The joys of talking to ChatGPT: Among the ways I find it useful: It helps me cure writer’s block, prepare for meetings in the car and sightsee. Oh, and hang curtains. WSJ

Bloomberg: OpenAI to decide which backers to let into $6.5 billion funding

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing + Samsung have discussed building major new factories in the United Arab Emirates in coming years amid the rise of artificial intelligence, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Qualcomm approached Intel about takeover bid in recent days: FT reports no formal offer has been made in deal which would be biggest tech acquisition in history.

Bloomberg: Apollo to offer multibillion-dollar investment in Intel

+ Investment firm offered equity-like investment in chipmaker

+ Move comes as rival Qualcomm makes approach about takeover

China’s BYD raises car export hopes in Pakistan after being spurned by India: FT reports the planned assembly plant in the country would mark carmaker’s first venture into south Asia as it expands globally.

Nissan to bet on plug-in hybrid technology as EVs lose steam: Nikkei reports Japanese companies scramble to catch up with China in vital 'bridge' vehicle tech.

What does ‘slow news’ startup Tortoise have in store for The Observer? Tortoise Media is on the verge of buying the 233-year-old paper — but rivals and analysts are baffled about the rationale for splashing out on a loss-making venture. The Times

YouTubers like MrBeast are coming for Hollywood: Scandals will not be enough to stop a new generation from taking over. Economist

Paris department stores launch charm offensive: New brands, store exclusives, vintage sections... Galeries Lafayette, Printemps, and Le Bon Marché are making changes to lure back French customers. Le Monde

*** Culture ***

‘A Very Royal Scandal’: Bumbling onto the BBC: Michael Sheen stars in Prime Video’s gripping miniseries about Prince Andrew’s disastrous TV interview concerning allegations of illicit sex and his connection to Jeffrey Epstein. WSJ

I really can't tell if you're serious: The latest style of engagement-bait video is designed to be confusing—but why? Kaitlyn Tiffany

*** Sport ***

NFL makes historic debut in Brazil—cheers, confusion ensue: Fans yell at wrong times, merrily curse refs in Portuguese and wonder why ‘astronauts’ keep huddling. WSJ

How college football in Florida fell apart: In one of the surprises of the new season, Florida State has crashed back to Earth, while the Gators are on course for another disappointing year. WSJ

F1 has gone crazy again—and it’s completely unmissable: The whole sport was bracing for another season of Max Verstappen dominance. Instead, the field is deeper than it has been in years with seven different race winners this season. WSJ

The International Chess Federation, the game’s governing body, voted to uphold a ban on the national teams of Russia and Belarus in competitions. 


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal