Caracal Daily | September 26

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Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Hizbullah seems to have miscalculated in its fight with Israel: But neither side would gain from a ruinous and pointless war. Economist

Israel readies possible Lebanon invasion as Hezbollah fires missile at Tel Aviv: WSJ reports Israel's military chief said airstrikes against Hezbollah were in preparation for a potential ground invasion of Lebanon, after air defenses intercepted the militant group’s missile.

WP: Israel preparing soldiers for possible entry into Lebanon, IDF chief tells troops

FT: US and France push for temporary Lebanon truce

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is sending 700 troops to nearby Cyprus to prepare for the possible evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon. The government "continues to advise against all travel to Lebanon."

The Times: British citizens urged to leave Lebanon amid fears of all-out war

+ The Prime Minister refused to rule out deploying troops on the ground to help get British nationals out of Lebanon.

Politico: Ukraine bets on India to help get peace deal with Putin

Volodymyr Zelensky has a plan for Ukraine’s victory: The Ukrainian President on how to end the war with Russia, the empty rhetoric of Vladimir Putin, and what the US election could mean for the fate of his country. The New Yorker 

US ‘unimpressed’ with Ukraine’s victory plan ahead of Biden-Zelensky meeting: WSJ reports the Biden administration is concerned that the Ukrainian leader’s plan is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, US officials said. 

As Zelensky calls for global focus on Ukraine, Putin rattles nuclear sabers: NYT reports hours after the Ukrainian president appealed for the West’s continued support, Russia’s authoritarian leader, Vladimir V. Putin, moved to significantly ease the circumstances under which his country might counter with nuclear weapons.

WP: Zelensky warns UN that Russia is preparing to attack nuclear plants

Yevgeny Prigozhin secretly used JPMorgan and HSBC for Wagner payments: The banks unwittingly handled transactions for companies in Africa controlled by deceased Russian warlord. FT

Apple ‘complicit in Russian censorship by blocking VPNs’: The Times reports Russia has blocked hundreds of websites, including Facebook and X, since invading Ukraine. Now Apple is accused of removing access to apps that dodge those bans.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine to include attacks on nonnuclear states: WP reports Russian President Vladimir Putin said non-nuclear states supported by nuclear ones could face Russia’s nuclear deterrent in an expansion of its policy.

Reuters: Russia has secret war drones project in China, intel sources say

China alarms neighbours with first ICBM test for 40 years: The Times reports Beijing said the launch of dummy missiles into the Pacific was part of ‘routine annual exercises’ but it came as a surprise to international observers.

China-Linked hackers breach US internet providers in new ‘Salt Typhoon’ cyberattack: It is latest intrusion into core US infrastructure by entities tied to Beijing. WSJ

Resolute Japan: A Leadership Model for the Longer Term: In an excerpt from their new book 'Resolute Japan: The Leaders Forging a Corporate Resurgence,' authors Jusuke JJ Ikegami, Harbir Singh, and Michael Useem explain what “long term” means to many Japanese firms. K@W

Who’ll be Japan’s PM: the hawk, nepo baby or would-be Thatcher? Nine candidates are standing to be leader of the Liberal Democratic Party — and prime minister. But each of the three frontrunners would be deeply divisive. The Times

US tackles a military vulnerability in the Pacific: Supply lines: America is rethinking its logistics in the vast region, with training involving giant fuel bladders in the Australian Outback. WSJ

Germany’s GDP is expected to shrink by 0.1% this year, according to leading German economic forecasters. 

UK Labour Party is back in power, but the celebration is muted: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed that there would be sacrifices and compromises before there would be “light at the end of this tunnel.” WP

Labour’s celebration conference felt more like a wake: On what should have been Keir Starmer’s first truly triumphant event since winning the election, the gathering in Liverpool has been the dampest of squibs. The Times

Keir Starmer struggles to fix morale at ‘weird’ Labour conference: Prime minister’s plea for unity undermined by winter fuel payment vote and lingering worries about ‘unforced errors.’ FT

What is Britain’s Labour government for? A bumpy transition from opposition to office. Economist

The government of Albania is planning to give a sect of Shiite Sufi Muslims their own Vatican-style state on 27 acres of land in the capital city of Tirana. The project is the brainchild of Baba Mondi, leader of the Sufi Bektashi Order, which has millions of followers, and Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama. 

Mexico’s Senate voted in favor of a bill that will bring the country’s National Guard under the control of the army. 

Mexico’s datacentre industry is booming – but are more drought and blackouts the price communities must pay? Many fear the arrival of tech giants such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google in the state of Querétaro will place too much of a strain on scarce water and electricity resources. Guardian

UN officials have a strange feeling about the US presidential race: Politico reports Trump return to the White House has many in this international set worried about global cooperation.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

News outlets brace for chaos on Election Night (and perhaps beyond): Here’s how they’re preparing to make calls in a very tight race — and ensure that viewers and readers believe them. NYT

Three key dates to watch - which start 36 days after Election Day:

+ Dec 11: national deadline to complete counts

+ Dec 17: electors vote in state capitols

+ Jan 6, 2025: new Congress certifies election

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 47% to 40% in the race to win the US presidential election, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Kamala Harris has a 31-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters under 30, according to the latest edition of the Harvard Youth Poll.

PA-POTUS: A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, 47% to 45%.

NC-POTUS: A new AARP poll in North Carolina finds Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by two points in a multi-candidate race, 48% to 46%.

Behind Kamala Harris’s rise: Silicon Valley’s wealthiest woman: The alliance between Kamala Harris and Laurene Powell Jobs is a genuine friendship that has thrust the press-shy billionaire philanthropist into the political spotlight. NYT

A recent trip to Washington by BlackRock’s Larry Fink triggered rumors he might be in the running to be Kamala Harris’ Treasury secretary if she wins the White House.

LAT: Trump’s rhetorical walkabouts: A sign of ‘genius’ or cognitive decline?

‘He should be doing better’: Even some Trump allies see him veering off course: Politico reports while polls show an incredibly close race, some of Trump’s allies are concerned about his lack of focus.

Donald Trump secured the endorsement of Hamtramck, MI, Mayor Amer Ghalib over the weekend, a surprise breakthrough with Muslim voters, who rejected the GOP nominee in 2016 and 2020. 

Democrats won complete power in Michigan. Republicans are trying to take it away. The GOP needs to flip just two seats to win control of the state House. Politico

Donald Trump cut ties to some online fund-raisers: NYT reports the campaign also reduced the commission retained by the remaining vendors, as the former president falls behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the cash race.

Republicans pick up unlikely allies in key House races: Unions: NYT reports Democrats still dominate with organized labor. But in must-win swing races, Republicans are peeling off some union support, and feeling the benefits.

Ted Cruz is again fighting for political survival in Texas: The fiery senator, who was nearly unseated in 2018, has been trying to rebrand himself in a close race against a Democratic congressman and former NFL player, Colin Allred. NYT

Ocasio-Cortez says Adams should resign ‘for the good of the city’: NYT reports Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez became the most prominent elected official to call for Mayor Eric Adams to no longer lead New York City.

The bizarre new politics of pets: They used to be a way for pols to look normal. Now they’re all about culture war symbolism. Politico

The Justice Department filed an antitrust suit against Visa.

FTC announces crackdown on deceptive AI claims and schemes: With Operation AI Comply, agency announces five law enforcement actions against operations that use AI hype or sell AI technology that can be used in deceptive and unfair ways.

Mark Zuckerberg is done with politics: He was once a backer of liberal causes. Then, everyone seemed to turn on him. Now, he wants to stay away from politics — if that’s possible. NYT

Understanding the impact of AI on misinformation: Researchers from Indiana University are leading a federally funded effort to understand the role AI plays in making the messages we receive online more influential. Axios

What public discourse gets wrong about social media misinformation: A new study co-authored by Wharton's Duncan Watts shows that while online misinformation exists, it isn’t as pervasive as pundits and the press suggest. K@W

We need a Food and Drug Administration for AI: Governments should look to the pharmaceutical sector when regulating large language models. Anja Manuel

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Drowning in slop: A thriving underground economy is clogging the internet with AI garbage — and it’s only going to get worse. Max Read

James McAvoy and Tom Brady fall for 'Goodbye Meta AI' hoax: BBC reports more than 600,000 people, including many celebrities, have fallen for a hoax claiming to deny Facebook and Instagram owner Meta the right to use their images for training artificial intelligence (AI).

That message from your doctor? It may have been drafted by AI: Overwhelmed by queries, physicians are turning to artificial intelligence to correspond with patients. Many have no clue that the replies are software-generated. NYT

Microsoft President Brad Smith argued at a Semafor event that the US “needs to get comfortable” with exporting artificial intelligence chips to foreign countries like the United Arab Emirates and Kenya.

James Cameron joins board of Stability AI in coup for tech firm: THR reports the director says that “the intersection of generative AI and CGI image creation is the next wave” of film technology, as he joins the company behind the popular Stable Diffusion AI model.

Reuters: Spotify expands AI playlist feature to new markets including US, Canada

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sees AI producing "massive prosperity" in a future that is "so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now." In a manifesto titled "The Intelligence Age," posted to his website Monday, Altman said that OpenAI's strategy of scaling AI up will continue to pay off. Read the post here.

+ OpenAI might achieve superintelligence in as little as 8 years.

Bloomberg: OpenAI pitched White House on unprecedented data center buildout

+ Startup calls for more US data centers as large as 5 gigawatts

+ CEO met with White House officials earlier this month

Reuters: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity, sources say

OpenAI chief technology officer resigns: WSJ reports it’s the latest in a string of departures this year at the company behind ChatGPT.

Bloomberg: OpenAI CTO Mira Murati says she will leave the company

+ Murati was key figure at OpenAI, including interim CEO stint

+ Startup has seen multiple top leaders exit in past year

Behind OpenAI’s audacious plan to make AI flow like electricity: Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, is talking to the United Arab Emirates, Asian chipmakers, and US officials to expand the computing power needed to build artificial intelligence. NYT

My chat with soulless AI Judi Dench, coming soon to your Facebook: Hear our tech columnist’s chat with the AI celebrity voices coming to the chatbot built into Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Geoffrey A. Fowler

Meta is spurning the European Union’s voluntary artificial intelligence safety pledge that’s planned as a stopgap measure before the bloc’s AI Act rules take full force in 2027.

Facebook owner Meta is preparing to kick off its annual Connect conference at its California headquarters, where it is expected to preview its first augmented reality glasses and announce updates to its existing virtual reality and AI products.

The celebrities lending their voices to Meta’s new AI: WSJ reports the social media giant announced deals with Awkwafina, John Cena, and others, who are allowing a likeness of their voices to be used with its AI assistant.

Zuckerberg’s Meta Ray-Bans offer translations and restaurant tips: The smart glasses and a cheaper version of the firm’s VR headset were previewed at the Connect conference in California. The Times

Bloomberg: Meta debuts Orion AR glasses as eventual smartphone rival

+ Orion glasses only a prototype, not available for sale

+ New glasses unveiled at Meta’s annual Connect conference

Meta presses pause on launch of latest AI in Britain and EU: The Times reports the Facebook owner has blamed the stalled rollout of Meta AI in Europe on uncertainty around what data can be used to train AI models.

Google paid $2.7 billion to bring back an AI genius who quit in frustration: Amid debate on whether tech companies are overspending on AI, Google’s pricey reunion with Noam Shazeer draws attention. WSJ

Reuters: Google, Volkswagen partner on smartphone AI assistant

Can dealmaking save Intel? America’s failing chip champion needs a financial-engineering miracle. Economist

Roku said the company remains “very committed” to its namesake set-top boxes, even as the electronics industry shifts to smart televisions with built-in streaming technology.

Koch's private-equity arm is in talks to buy Forbes.

WP: Shoppers will spend a record $241 billion online this holiday season

Bloomberg: US Mortgage rates fall again, triggering big wave of refinancing

+ Refinancing index jumped last week to the highest since April 2022

+ MBA’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 2 basis points to 6.13%

The art market is tanking. Sotheby’s has even bigger problems. The auction house, owned by highly leveraged billionaire Patrick Drahi, is pushing off payments, awaiting a financial lifeline from an Abu Dhabi fund. WSJ

Bloomberg: Hooters restaurant chain taps advisers to address debt as revenue falls

+ Recent closures targeted ‘underperforming’ locations

+ Talks address $300 million in debt backed by revenue, assets

Bloomberg: Chef José Andrés to open luxury hotel in Washington’s Georgetown

+ The Bazaar House by José Andrés is slated to open in 2027

+ Spot has been largely empty after Latham Hotel closed

Plan to refreeze Arctic sea ice shows promise in first tests: Field trials indicate that pumping seawater onto the snow on top of Arctic sea ice can make the ice thicker, offering a possible way to preserve sea ice throughout the summer. Madeleine Cuff

Silicon Valley renegades pollute the sky to save the planet: Some restless entrepreneurs are releasing pollutants in the sky to try to cool the planet. NYT

*** Culture ***

Andrew Neil: ‘I’d rather cut my arm off than listen to Alastair Campbell’: The veteran broadcaster is taking to the airwaves — but what does he make of podcast rivals The News Agents and The Rest Is Politics? The Times

Ellen DeGeneres strikes back: “Mean, Old and Gay — The Triple Crown”: THR reports the former 'Ellen' host jokes that she regrets not signing off with "Go f*** yourselves" in her new Netflix comedy special that details the fallout when the world decides the "queen of nice" is actually "the queen of mean."

Fraser Nelson is to step down as editor of The Spectator. Michael Gove will succeed him.

*** Sport ***

WP: The White Sox are on the brink of setting a record, and the media are running out of words

A night with the ‘ManningCast’: Voice memos, legendary cameos help redefine NFL broadcast TA

Flutter predicts profit will more than double by 2027 as US market booms: FT reports FanDuel and Paddy Power owner expects about four-fifths of Americans will eventually indulge in sports betting.

AC Milan in talks to promote war-torn DRC as tourist destination: FT reports the Central African country’s neighbour, Rwanda, already uses sports sponsorship to advertise itself.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal