Caracal Daily | October 9
Caracal Daily | October 9
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
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Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
67: The number of countries that have already held national elections this year.
Europe’s privacy patrol is spoiling Big Tech’s AI party: Politico reports more than six years into force, Europe’s mighty data protection rulebook is finding its second wind — by stymying Big Tech giants’ artificial intelligence plans. In just a few months, tech giants including Google, Meta, X and LinkedIn have paused or delayed AI projects in the European Union, blaming an old yet familiar foe: Brussels’ red tape.
EU creates 'Appeals Centre' to referee disputes with social media giants: Le Monde reports Appeals Centre Europe, an out-of-court dispute settlement body set up under the EU's Digital Services Act and backed by Meta, is due to 'decide cases relating to Facebook, TikTok and YouTube' to begin with.
Bloomberg: Ukraine’s allies see Kyiv getting more flexible over war endgame
+ As war drags on, Western capitals shifting view to ending war
+ Zelenskiy consulting with US before unveiling ‘victory plan’
For a second day, Ukrainian hackers hit Russian institutions: WP reports hackers attacked Russia’s digital state media hub and courts websites over two days, bringing both down.
Russia pays criminals to sow ‘mayhem’ in Europe, warns UK spy chief: WSJ reports the head of the MI5 said Russia and Iran are hiring low-level criminals to undertake sabotage missions and attacks on dissidents in Europe.
America v China: Who controls Asia’s internet? Amid an explosive data and AI boom the superpower contest. Economist
Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao expressed “serious concerns” on the US’s chip policy and its proposed ban on Chinese car software, in a phone call with US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Tuesday.
China imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs of up to 39% on European brandy imports, arguing that foreign distillers threaten its domestic industry. The European Commission said it would challenge the decision, which comes into effect on Friday and arrives days after the EU voted to introduce hefty tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
ISIS is back, says UK spy chief: Politico reports rare public appearance from MI5 boss Ken McCallum also includes stark warnings about Russia, Iran — and funding pressures on the intelligence service itself.
WSJ: Hezbollah launches barrage of rockets into northern Israel, hitting city suburbs
Israel sends thousands more troops into Lebanon: FT reports the IDF signals an expanded ground offensive against Hizbollah.
Can Israel’s mighty tech industry withstand a wider war? Its resilience is being tested. Economist
Weakened Iran has a major deterrent: The nuclear option: WSJ reports with Hezbollah reeling and its own missiles so far failing to do much damage, attention has turned to the potential threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear program.
Washington worries the Israelis will bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. But can they? NYT reports for 22 years, Israeli forces have planned for this moment. But it seems unlikely that they will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the next round of retaliation, or that they would be successful without American help.
Israel’s defense minister postpones trip to Washington, US says: NYT reports Yoav Gallant and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III were expected to discuss Israel’s response to the Iranian missile assault on Israel last week.
US irked by Israel’s reluctance to share Iran retaliation plans: WSJ reports the Biden administration hopes to avoid a repeat of surprise attacks, such as the killing of Hezbollah’s leader.
Joe Biden ‘called Netanyahu a bad guy’ in profanity-laden rant: The Times reports Bob Woodward writes in new book about the president’s frequent use of expletives when talking about his foreign counterparts.
One year after October 7, Western and Arab diplomats are unable to end war in Gaza: Le Monde reports the conflict between Israel and Hamas seems hopeless and threatens to expand. While the Biden administration is unable to influence Netanyahu, the Arab-Muslim world is divided, and Europeans are marginalized.
Exploding pagers and spy chips: The rising risk of hardware tampering: Unreliable suppliers can modify devices, yet companies devote few resources to verifying the origin of components. FT
South Sudan’s economic crisis is so bad it’s taxing its only lifeline: Ravaged by civil war, floods, and now collapsing oil revenues, the country has imposed a levy on international aid trucks and UN peacekeepers. WSJ
How Erdogan’s monument to Turkish power landed New York’s mayor in legal trouble: Eric Adams cleared a path for the opening of the troubled Manhattan skyscraper after the Fire Department flagged defects. “You are a true friend of Turkey,” the consul general replied. WSJ
Keir Starmer as unpopular as Nigel Farage, poll shows: The Times reports just 27% of the public have a favourable opinion of the prime minister – as a separate survey shows Labour’s lead over the Tories is down to a single point.
Tom Tugendhat, a former British security minister, was knocked out of the leadership race for the Conservative Party in the third round of voting among MPs. His departure leaves three candidates: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick. The winner will be announced on November 2nd.
French PM Barnier survives first no-confidence vote: Le Monde reports the motion of no confidence required 289 votes to be adopted. It was supported by only 197 lawmakers on Tuesday.
French wine production down by a fifth after September washout: The Times reports that Burgundy, Beaujolais, and Champagne are worst-hit regions after wettest season in 25 years.
Southern Europe's economic revenge: Le Monde reports growth in Greece and Spain is expected to exceed 2% this year and in Italy by 1%, while Germany's economy is stagnating and French GDP is struggling to grow.
They flew 7,000 miles to fight Haiti’s gangs. The gangs are on top. Hundreds of Kenyan police officers are in Port-au-Prince, trying to take the capital back from gangs, but financing and personnel shortages have hampered the effort. NYT
Bloomberg: X cleared to return in Brazil after Musk bows to judge’s demands
Mexico is facing an emergency. Washington must help. Simply hunting down narcotics traffickers only exacerbates the violence south of the border. Eduardo Porter
The myth that foreign policy doesn’t matter in presidential elections: Details might not matter, but voters care about projecting strength. Jeffrey A. Friedman + Andrew Payne
Trump’s trade policies would hurt the world: His new suggestions would have a far bigger impact than the relatively modest ‘starter protectionism’ of his first term. Martin Wolf
The battle over robots at US ports is on: Striking dockworkers are back to work—but disagreement over automation stands in the way of lasting peace. WSJ
*** US Politics + Elections ***
FT: Hurricane Milton strengthens again as Florida residents urged to leave
WP: Milton closes in on Florida’s west coast; ‘life-threatening’ storm surge expected
+ @RobbieGramer: BREAKING: President Biden is postponing his upcoming trip to Germany and Angola "to oversee preparations for and the response to Hurricane Milton"
Hurricane Milton is about to end Tampa’s century of good luck: Bloomberg reports a potential direct hit is looming for a thriving metropolitan area that has long avoided the worst effects of powerful storms.
WSJ: Federal deficit hit $1.8 trillion for 2024, according to CBO
Could an “October Surprise” upset America’s election? What last-minute developments might portend for the race. Economist
AZ - POTUS: A new AARP poll in Arizona finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris among voters overall, 49% to 47%, with 1% supporting other candidates and 3% undecided.
Inside the battle for America’s most consequential battleground state: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are pouring more money, time, and energy into Pennsylvania than anywhere else, waging an ad war as they crisscross the state. NYT
Trump and Republicans bet big on anti-trans ads across the country: NYT reports Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars on the ads, part of an attempt to help them win over suburban female voters.
3% of American high schoolers identify as transgender, first national survey finds: NYT reports a survey by the CDC found high rates of sadness, bullying, and suicide attempts among transgender and gender-questioning teenagers.
Top Musk lieutenant joins Trump Super PAC for final push: NYT reports Steve Davis is often called upon by Musk to help in all-hands-on-deck situations, such as after Musk’s purchase of Twitter.
Trump spoke with Putin multiple times since leaving office, Woodward book reports: Politico reports the Trump campaign vehemently denied that the GOP nominee has been in touch with Russia’s president.
Trump secretly stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office, book says: A new book by the journalist Bob Woodward also reports that Donald J. Trump, while still in office, secretly sent Vladimir Putin what were then rare COVID-19 test machines for the Russian leader’s personal use. NYT
5 key revelations from Bob Woodward’s new book: Trump, Putin, Biden, Netanyahu and other world leaders in secretive, off-the-cuff moments revealed in “War.” WP
'The Apprentice' by Ali Abbasi: How Roy Cohn created Donald Trump: The Iranian-born Danish filmmaker directs an edifying fable on the former American president's formative years under lawyer Roy Cohn. Le Monde
Inside the patriot wing: January 6 rioters are running their jail block like a gang. They’re leaving more radicalized than ever. Tess Owen
Iran > China: Vice President Kamala Harris has a hot geopolitical take: Iran, not China, is the United States’ biggest threat.
The world according to Kamala Harris: Critics say the vice-president is yet to clearly define her foreign policy vision. But the contours of a philosophy are starting to emerge. FT
Inside a Harris ad in which ex-Trump aides blast him as unfit for office: NYT reports an attack ad from Kamala Harris’s campaign uses denunciations of Donald Trump by his own former top security lieutenants to portray him as too risky to restore to power.
Kamala Harris struggles to say how she would differ from Joe Biden: FT reports the US vice-president has sought to cast herself as change candidate in White House race against Donald Trump.
Kamala’s comedown how the Harris campaign became a grim slog. Zak Cheney-Rice
Harris allies fear she is struggling to reach working-class voters: WSJ reports in crucial blue-wall states, senior Democrats want a sharper economic message and more campaign visits.
CNBC: Harris seeks to convert economic tailwinds into votes as election enters homestretch
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he has yet to make a decision on whether to endorse a candidate in the US presidential election next month.
Crypto dot com sues SEC after receiving legal threat from US regulator: FT reports crypto exchange accuses securities watchdog of ‘over-reach’ and argues it ‘cannot lawfully regulate’ token sales.
Breaking up is hard to do: Antitrust officials weigh splitting Google, others: Antitrust enforcers search for tough remedies to counteract alleged monopoly abuses. WSJ
In landmark move, EPA requires removal of all US lead pipes in a decade: WP reports the rule finalized Tuesday, which could eliminate a toxic threat to American children, is projected to cost tens of billions of dollars.
Michigan and the EV mandate backlash: As auto layoffs mount in the state from climate policies, Democrats are on the political defensive. WSJ - Editorial
Virginia congressional candidate creates AI chatbot as debate stand-in for incumbent: Reuters reports a long-shot congressional challenger in Virginia is so determined to debate the Democratic incumbent one more time that he created an AI chatbot to stand in for the candidate in case he's a no-show. Bentley Hensel, a software engineer for good government group CivicActions, who is running as an independent, said he was frustrated by what he said was Beyer’s refusal to appear for additional debates since September. So he hatched a unique plan that will test the bounds of both propriety and technology: a debate with Beyer’s artificial intelligence likeness.
AI labeling requirements could have an unintended boomerang effect: According to a new study, researchers at New York University’s Center on Technology Policy found that people rated candidates “less trustworthy and less appealing” when their ads featured AI disclaimers. The first-of-its-kind study examining how the labels affect views of candidates.
Members of Congress pushed back on California’s AI bill: Groups wanting to protect US innovation as well as the public at large helped torpedo legislation. Roll Call
Silicon Valley, the new lobbying monster: From crypto to AI, the tech sector is pouring millions into super PACS that intimidate politicians into supporting its agenda. TNY
States sue TikTok, saying its addictive features hook children: WP reports the child safety lawsuits arrive as the video-sharing app battles a potential ban over national security concerns.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
MicroRNA pioneers win Nobel Prize in Medicine: WSJ reports Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun were awarded the prize for the discovery of microRNA, tiny molecules that play an important role in gene regulation.
Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to trio who cracked the code of proteins: WSJ reports the work of David Baker, John M. Jumper and Demis Hassabis transformed the ability to understand human biology and create proteins from scratch.
Fecal contamination in Perrier well adds to $300 billion sector’s hurdles: As the French brand faces challenges, the global water business is grappling with questions of sustainability. Bloomberg
Anything in 10 minutes: $5 billion delivery app sweeps Latin America: Rappi’s plans to deliver groceries and prepared meals in a tight window is key to the company’s growth. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Home Depot orders corporate staff to take 8-Hour retail shifts
+ CEO wants all employees to see challenges store workers face
+ Move comes amid chain’s sales slump, rising US labor activism
Decision time for GM in China: Stay, scale back or go: WSJ reports the country’s sharp shift to EVs and stronger local competition have deflated a key profit engine for the US automaker.
Tesla Cybertruck too dangerous for Europe’s roads, say campaigners: The Times reports Elon Musk’s electric pickup truck is too heavy and has sharp edges that break EU regulations, according to safety groups.
Battery makers aim to ease EV anxieties with 5-minute charge: FT reports the industry says superfast charging for electric cars is on its way to matching the time drivers used to spend filling up at pumps.
A subsidiary of Northvolt, a Swedish-battery maker, filed for bankruptcy. The struggling firm is desperately trying to stave off financial collapse, after splurging on new technology in 2023.
EV battery recycling push by Japan's JERA targets 90% recovery: Technology seeks to keep supplies of lithium, cobalt and nickel within reach. Nikkei
Rio Tinto considers bid for Arcadium Lithium: The Times reports the deal would make the FTSE 100 miner one of the biggest producers of the metal essential for electric vehicle batteries and power storage.
Chevron in talks to sell Texas gas assets to Tokyo Gas for up to $1bn: FT reports a deal would bolster Japanese group’s drive to secure supplies for its home country, which relies on fossil fuel imports for energy.
French winegrowers find 'forbidden' American grapes are hardier in the face of climate change: Le Monce reports in 1934, France banned vintages made from six grape varieties imported from the US from being sold as 'wine.' Yet some winegrowers never stopped growing them.
Marc Rowan, the man with a plan to remake Wall Street: The Apollo chief believes we are on the cusp of a new era in finance. FT
New titans of Wall Street: How Jane Street rode the ETF wave to ‘obscene’ riches: A quirky and opaque New York firm has rapidly expanded to become the most profitable trader of all. FT
Can Hudson Square reinvent itself as New York City’s next hot neighborhood? Once known as a gritty, industrial area on Manhattan’s West Side, Hudson Square is now trying to lure new tenants and businesses, and create its own identity. NYT
+ @NobelPrize: BREAKING NEWS: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2024 #NobelPrize in Physics to John J. Hopfield and Geoffrey E. Hinton “for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks.”
Nobel Physics Prize awarded for pioneering AI research by 2 scientists: NYT reports with work on machine learning that uses artificial neural networks, John J. Hopfield and Geoffrey E. Hinton “showed a completely new way for us to use computers,” the committee said.
Nobel physics prize 2024 goes to AI pioneers Hopfield and Hinton: Reuters reports US scientist John Hopfield and British-Canadian Geoffrey Hinton won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics for discoveries and inventions that laid the foundation for machine learning, the award-giving body said on Tuesday. Hinton has been widely credited as a godfather of artificial intelligence and made headlines when he quit his job at Google last year to be able to more easily speak about the dangers of the technology he had pioneered.
AI pioneers John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton win Nobel Prize in Physics: WSJ reports Hinton and Hopfield were recognized for inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks.
AI innovators win Nobel Prize for physics: FT reports Geoffrey Hinton, co-recipient of award with John Hopfield, warns of potential dangers of artificial intelligence.
AI researchers receive the Nobel prize for physics: The award, to Geoffrey Hinton and John Hopfield, stretches the definition of the field. Economist
A godfather of AI just won a Nobel. He has been warning the machines could take over the world. Geoffrey Hinton hopes the prize will add credibility to his claims about the dangers of AI technology he pioneered. WSJ
One of the biggest AI boomtowns is rising in a tech-industry backwater: WSJ reports Blackstone and TikTok’s parent are among the companies investing in data centers in a Malaysian state better known for its palm-oil plantations.
New score uses AI to rate brands’ inclusivity in advertising WSJ
Small businesses show high AI adoption rates: Almost all small businesses are using a software tool that is enabled by AI, a new survey reveals. Inc.
OpenAI + Hearst have struck a deal to give ChatGPT access to Hearst's print content.
Bloomberg: Meta launches generative AI video tools for advertisers
No time to read? Google’s new AI will turn anything into a podcast. The new podcast craze is two AIs talking about anything you want. Should you trust it? WP
OpenAI is right to abandon non-profit status: Complicated corporate structures cannot force leaders to agree and makes fundraising more difficult. Nathan Benaich
Google ordered to open Android to app store rivals after court loss: FT reports injunction is a blow to search giant defending three antitrust cases that threaten its core business.
*** SOTD ***
The Bartender and the Thief by Stereophonics Spotify
*** Culture ***
The Waldorf Astoria is set to reopen soon. How do you renovate a classic? How does a designer make a classic hotel feel fresh and modern, while also respecting what came before? We took a deeper look at the renovations of three grandes dames to find out. WSJ
Is it stylish to be fit? What I learnt from becoming a middle-aged man in Lycra. Robert Armstrong
WP: Taylor Swift is reportedly the world’s richest female musician at $1.6 billion
Netflix’s latest runaway hit is a Korean reality cooking show: Bloomberg reports Culinary Class Wars has garnered millions of views online.
*** Sport ***
In Salt Lake City, sports drive a new vision for downtown: A proposal to remake the area would please the owner of the city’s NBA and NHL teams. But others, including classical musicians, aren’t so thrilled. NYT
Why is football in Latin America so complex? Money-grubbing and regulatory capture explain its Byzantine leagues. Economist
Blockchain businesses like Crypto dot com, Kraken, Bitpanda, and Arkham Intelligence are among those that have signed new sponsorship deals in the world of English and European football this summer, taking the industry’s spending on the sport to a record £130 million ($170 million) this season. As one of the world’s most-watched sports, football has become a favorite route for reaching the masses, and at a much lower price than the sector is used to.
Jets fire coach Robert Saleh after a 2-3 start to the season.
The turf war between tennis and pickleball is escalating: The US Tennis Association says that 10% of courts in America have been taken over or repainted since the pickleball boom began. WSJ
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal