Caracal Daily | October 25
Caracal Daily | October 25
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
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Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Japan’s China paradox has lessons for Australia: Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, wants a more equal relationship with the US. That could spell trouble as Tokyo confronts the “deep threat” from China. AFR
Sinologist Li Cheng: ‘America is not in the mood to study China’: The political expert on the breakdown of US-Sino relations, what Xi Jinping’s fourth term might hold — and why neither Harris nor Trump makes him hopeful of change. FT
China and Iran champion close ties, but Beijing’s influence is limited: WP reports an Israeli strike on Iran could upset China’s oil supplies, but Beijing is more interested in looking like a peacemaker than actually making peace, analysts say.
Americans who want to do business in China need to meet this man: He Lifeng has a direct line to President Xi Jinping and is a gatekeeper to the world’s second-largest economy. WSJ
Bloomberg: China lawmakers to meet during US election amid stimulus hopes
+ Top legislative body to review report on financial work
+ Published agenda doesn’t specifically mention fiscal policies
‘China will not like it one bit’: Beijing uneasy with North Korean troops in Russia: FT reports the deepening Moscow-Pyongyang ties could destabilise Korean peninsula and embolden US-led alliances in region.
Bloomberg: North Korea to send more troops to Russia, South Korea spies say
+ First group of soldiers already undergoing training in Russia
+ South Korea also reports on arms sent to Russia by Pyongyang
Putin abandons caution on North Korea in pursuit of victory in Ukraine: NYT reports the invasion of Ukraine has led the Russian leader to jettison cooperation with the West over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in favor of an ever-deepening military alliance with Pyongyang.
Bloomberg: Putin says Russia won’t make concessions to end war on Ukraine
Putin welcomes Trump’s ‘sincere’ pledge to end war in Ukraine: The Times reports Russian president praised the Republican’s claim he would ‘work out something’ to stop the conflict if he returned to the White House.
Elon Musk’s secret conversations With Putin: Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns. Topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters. WSJ
Vladimir Putin’s battle to keep Georgia in Russia’s orbit: The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow. FT
Pro-Russia parties gain ground in Bulgaria ahead of elections: FT reports political fragmentation in EU and NATO member plays to Moscow’s advantage.
Why Moldova wants to move away from Russia and join EU instead Bloomberg
EU has to stop ‘lecturing’ developing world, says top official: FT reports Charles Michel says partner countries taking part in Putin’s BRICS summit ‘want to send a message.’
Chinese imports damage ‘dignity’ of Italian tomato, says Mutti chief: FT reports the boss of tomato sauce group urges Brussels to protect farmers hit by ‘unfair’ competition from China’s Xinjiang region.
A history of Opus Dei — and the conspiracy theories around it: In “Opus,” Gareth Gore tells the story of a Catholic organization tangled up in right-wing politics and accusations of human trafficking. WP
Violence and threats: How a campaign of fear has shaken Canada’s Sikhs: NYT reports the tightly knit communities in Ontario and British Columbia have been rocked by violent events in the past 18 months. Now the authorities say the Indian government was behind them.
Why Canada is scaling back its immigration ambitions Bloomberg
For Mexico’s Sheinbaum, the race is on to harness nearshoring: Judicial reforms and the US election are roiling expectations of foreign investment-fueled growth. Bloomberg
White House orders Pentagon and intel agencies to increase use of AI: The Biden administration is under pressure to speed up AI development while also safeguarding against potential risks associated with the technology. WP
White House pushes agencies to adopt AI for military, spy uses: BGov reports the Biden administration plans to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence for military and intelligence uses, directing agencies to obtain the most powerful systems in a safe and secure manner, according to plans outlined in a new national security memorandum. The ambition to deploy AI in ways that would include lethal force is driven by fears that the US could fall behind China’s efforts to rapidly advance its own cutting-edge efforts, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the memo before its release on Thursday and requested anonymity to discuss it.
+ “Our competitors want to upend US AI leadership and have employed economic and technological espionage in efforts to steal US technology,” according a White House fact sheet.
+ United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres is leading the call for nations to sign a ban on lethal autonomous weapons by 2026, something that the US is not expected to join.
Biden to release AI national security memo: The memo will serve “as a formal charter for the AI Safety Institute” and a framework will provide agencies with new guidance, senior officials said. FedScoop
+ Under the memo, agencies will be directed to access “the most powerful AI systems and put them to use,” senior administration officials who briefed reporters on the memo ahead of its release said. The memo will also bolster the role of the AI Safety Institute and provide direction to agencies for AI use for national security.
WH Memo: Biden-Harris administration outlines coordinated approach to harness power of AI for US national security - Read the memo here.
Bloomberg: Trump 2.0 haunts world economy chiefs gathering in Washington before vote
+ Finance, central bank leaders gather for IMF annual meetings
+ US election seen as global risk alongside wars and inflation
A US farming giant gets a message 11 stories tall: Using natural materials from environmental disasters around the country, a Brazilian activist sends a message to a US farming giant. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump takes narrow lead over Harris in closing weeks of race: WSJ reports voters remember Trump’s presidency more fondly as negative views of Harris grow.
+ The national survey finds that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, compared with a Harris lead of 2 points in the Journal’s August survey on a ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates.
Harris and Trump deadlocked to the end, final Times/Siena national poll finds: The electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided. A New York Times/Siena College poll found Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied, 48 percent to 48 percent.
Donald Trump takes lead over Kamala Harris on US economy in final FT poll: FT-Michigan Ross survey shows most Americans think they will be better off if Republican wins.
In Wisconsin county, undecided voters reflect unease with Trump, Harris: WP reports Door County has sided with the winner in the past seven presidential races. Voters are anxious, fearful — and some are still undecided.
Harris struggles to distinguish candidacy from Biden: WSJ reports a majority of voters say the Democratic presidential candidate would largely continue the unpopular incumbent’s approach and policies.
+ @KellyO: NBC News confirms that Beyonce will appear with @KamalaHarris in Houston, Texas... That's both Beyonce hometown and where Harris is expected to highlight Texas abortion restrictions.
How Trump talks: Abrupt shifts, profane insults, confusing sentences: WP reports the Republican presidential nominee calls it “the weave” and a sign of a brilliant mind, but his remarks at recent public appearances have been strikingly erratic and coarse.
Believe him. What Donald Trump would do, in his own words NYT - Editorial
Trump’s newfound wealth hinges on winning election: WSJ reports his Truth Social social-media platform could tumble, but less debt and more cash have added stability to the former president’s finances.
The crypto website where the election odds swing in Trump’s favor: NYT reports Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.
How 1% of Polymarket bettors are boosting Trump’s odds: An analysis of millions of transactions shows a handful of accounts with outsize impact. Bloomberg
Prediction markets reflect that the clock favors Trump: Plus, the Polymarket whale is French, 62% probability isn’t a certainty, and October has failed to surprise. John Authers
Joe Rogan takes center stage in an election season dominated by podcasts: The nation’s No. 1 podcaster is set to host Donald Trump for a taped appearance that could air as soon as Saturday. WSJ
Here are 5 industries with the most at stake in presidential election Bloomberg
Alsobrooks has clear lead in Maryland Senate race, Post-UMD poll finds: WP reports Larry Hogan’s popularity as governor runs up against voters’ strong preference for Democrats to control the Senate.
Biden to apologize for Indian boarding schools where hundreds of children died: NYT reports President Biden’s trip to the battleground state of Arizona will be the first time an American president has apologized for the abuses that happened at the schools over a period of 150 years.
A new influence industry is making millions from US sanctions: Prominent former US officials are signing on to represent oligarchs, authoritarians, and corporate interests eager to shape America’s sprawling system of economic warfare. WP
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Behind the magic of ‘Saturday Night Live’s’ comedy empire: Five decades ago, television had never seen anything like ‘SNL.’ Now it’s the bar for modern comedy—and the kind of rare institution that gets to reinvent itself every year. WSJ
Why the young are fleeing to Portugal Rory Sutherland
Ship-free Saturdays? Juneau votes against limiting large cruise ships. NYT reports some residents in the Alaskan capital, frustrated with cruise crowds, sought to limit ship traffic on Saturdays, despite the likely negative impact on local businesses.
The influencer bros selling more baseball bats than the pros: Their YouTube reviews of Bonesabers, Tanks, and Meta Powers are shaping a billion-dollar market. Bloomberg
Dom Pérignon perfectly demonstrates the appeal of scarcity: What better expression of a luxury brand than refusing to sell your product this year, because it would be impossible to meet your impeccable standards? Mark Ritson
Moncler holds star-studded Genius event in Shanghai: Reuters reports mre than 8,000 guests were on hand for "The City of Genius" event, which featured separate pavilions for each of this year's Moncler Genius collection collaborators - a list that includes high profile names such as A$AP Rocky, Edward Enninful, Willow Smith and Rick.
Michael Kors and Kate Spade owners’ $8.5bn merger blocked by US judge: FT reports the decision is a win for antitrust regulators who had argued a deal would strangle competition in ‘accessible luxury’ market.
Cooling EV and China sales halve profits at Mercedes-Benz: FT reports the German carmaker has already lowered its annual profit margin guidance twice in the past three months.
Human scientists are still better than AI ones – for now: A simulator for the process of scientific discovery shows that AI models still fall short of human scientists and engineers in coming up with hypotheses and carrying out experiments on their own. NS
Big Tech has given itself an AI deadline: Why are AI execs suddenly saying that superintelligence is just around the corner? The Atlantic
The next wave of AI won’t be driven by LLMs - Here’s what investors should focus on instead Vivek Wadhwa
Masayoshi Son inflates the AI bubble even more Parmy Olson
Arm CEO sees AI transforming the world much faster than the internet: Rene Haas, the chief executive officer of Arm Holdings, says AI’s impact will be ‘quite, quite dramatic’ and there’s no holding back smart cars. Bloomberg
US approves massive lithium mine in Nevada, overriding protests: WP reports some environmentalists worry the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project could drive a rare wildflower to extinction, highlighting the trade-offs of the energy transition.
Microsoft bets on latest ‘Call of Duty’ to power up video games strategy: FT reports the tech giant hopes ‘Black Ops 6’ will boost Game Pass subscription service as Xbox sales decline.
*** Culture ***
Party barns are the hottest amenity for UK’s countryside rich: Agents say they’re becoming a must-have in property searches, as homeowners transform former agricultural spaces into entertainment hot spots. Bloomberg
Who gets the TikTok in the divorce? The messy fight over valuable social media accounts: When couples who make their living online split up, assessing the accounts’ future value and divvying them up fairly is a drag. WSJ
‘Conclave’: A fly on the wall inside the secret process to elect a Pope: A new drama by Edward Berger draws the audience inside this largely hidden tradition. How accurate is it? NYT
*** Sport ***
It’s Major League Baseball’s dream World Series—and it only cost $650 million: The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are the most prestigious and popular franchises in the sport. They also hold an enormous financial advantage over their rivals. WSJ
Is this Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series baseball’s salvation—or its last stand? A shrinking pastime gets a noisy marquee matchup of superstars and love-to-hate coastal cities. Is it enough to get all of America talking baseball again? Jason Gay
Judge, Ohtani, and a dream World Series matchup: Could this be MLB’s Magic and Bird? TA
WTOP: DC mayor proposes $87.5M purchase of Capital One Arena. Teams will stay in DC until 2050
WUSA: DC Mayor Bowser, Ted Leonsis share plans to revitalize Capital One Arena
Don Garber: Global soccer would be in better shape with MLS structure SBJ
In sports, American socialism is beating European capitalism: The more egalitarian, redistributive club competitions that exist in the US are starting to be copied across the Atlantic. WSJ
The French engineer chasing Ferrari’s first championship since 2008: Frédéric Vasseur has led the F1 team’s resurgence, reinvigorating fans and sponsors. FT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal