Caracal Daily | October 30

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Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

We’ve just had a glimpse of the world to come Lydia Polgreen

North Korea remains silent to citizens on Ukraine war deployment: Nikkei reports Pyongyang is censoring information to curb backlash, South Korean spy agency says.

The North Korean escalation: The arrival of thousands of North Korean troops in Russia, confirmed by Washington, and their likely involvement in support of Russian troops raises fears about the war evolving into a wider conflict. Le Monde - Editorial

‘Elite units’ and ‘cannon fodder’: North Korean troops enter Russia’s war against Ukraine: Deployment to Kursk region threatens to escalate conflict but analysts question Pyongyang forces’ readiness. FT

With limited options, Zelensky seeks a path forward for Ukraine: A muted response to Ukraine’s “victory plan” and steep challenges on the battlefield leave Kyiv searching for a Plan B. NYT

Ukraine is now struggling to survive, not to win: Russia is slicing through Ukrainian defences in parts of the battlefield. Economist

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants: FT reports the Qatar-mediated discussions mark resumption of previous efforts abandoned after Kyiv’s invasion of Kursk region.

Putin tests nuclear missile as Ukraine plans Korean response: The Times reports President Zelensky is working with Seoul on how to stop North Korea escalating the war.

Kremlin warns German weapons factory is legit target for Russia’s military: Politico reports Moscow puts Rheinmetall on notice over Ukraine-based plants.

Germany will play a pivotal role in Ukraine’s future: Russia is escalating its aggression even as western leaders debate Nato membership for Kyiv and a negotiated ceasefire. Constanze Stelzenmüller

Poland tells Ukraine to exhume second world war victims despite Russia’s invasion: FT reports the foreign minister says Kyiv and Berlin should act on Warsaw’s historic grievances.

Israel cuts ties with UN agency, creating new hurdles for Palestinian aid: WSJ reports a ban on working with Unrwa will make it harder for agency to operate in Gaza.

Hezbollah names Naim Kassem as new leader: Le Monde reports Kassem was one of Hezbollah's founders in 1982 and has been the party's deputy secretary general since 1991. He succeeds Hassan Nasrallah after he was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Beirut last month.

Will a humiliated Iran choose a nuclear bomb or a love bomb? How 30 years of strategy blew up in the regime’s face. Economist

AFP: Iran moves to triple military budget amid Israel tensions

Pentagon runs low on air-defense missiles as demand surges: WSJ reports a large number of interceptors used to strike missiles, drones in Middle East raises concerns about US military readiness in Pacific.

With dreams of a lunar outpost, China takes new risks in space race with US: China puts its space ambitions on display as it blasts three astronauts into orbit from a remote desert launch center. WSJ

US and Taiwan set for talks to end double taxation for companies: FT reports the deal would increase investment in American semiconductor manufacturing and away from China.

Why China may be saving its bazooka for Donald Trump: The Communist Party may be hoarding fiscal firepower to offset a possible trade war. Economist

Trump muddies an already-chaotic debate in China: A possible second term is adding to disagreement over the size of China’s fiscal stimulus and how it should be spent. Shuli Ren

US efforts to contain Xi’s push for tech supremacy are faltering: The world outside the US is increasingly driving Chinese electric vehicles, scrolling the web on Chinese smartphones, and powering their homes with Chinese solar panels. Bloomberg

TSMC chips ended up in devices made by China’s Huawei despite US controls: NYT reports the U.S. government has tried to keep Chinese companies from obtaining certain advanced technologies, but concerns have been growing that some products may have been routed to Huawei.

A tariff war with China might be good news for Brazil’s crops: WSJ reports a trade war with the US could give China more fuel to find other suppliers for its agricultural needs. 

Hong Kong offices in US promote Beijing's agenda, report alleges: Nikkei reports a local network's political influence campaign raises concern among activists.

Japan's Ishiba eyes minority government after opposition shuns coalition: Nikkei reports the LDP seen pursuing 'partial' alliance with DPP to retain power after election loss.

Why Europe’s car crisis is mostly made in China: The once-lucrative market is now highly competitive and more Chinese EVs are being exported, compounding slower sales at home. FT

Slovenia caught in the German slowdown trap: Le Monde reports with the recession in Germany spreading to the automotive supply chain, and the difficulty of making the transition to a service economy, the small Balkan state illustrates the slowdown in growth in countries that joined the European Union in 2004.

Georgia announces partial vote recount amid protests: DW reports Georgia's election commission plans to recount votes from randomly selected polling stations after the opposition said the recent election was "stolen." But the country's president called for an international probe.

Britain’s birth rate has crashed. It is likely to recover: Immigrants to the rescue, again. Economist

AFP: France's Macron pledges investment in W.Sahara under 'Moroccan sovereignty'

Does Africa need its own credit rating agency? A pan-continental body is not a cure-all for its debt problems. FT - Editorial

Bolivia 'going from bad to worse': At the barricades with Morales supporters: AFP reports at a traffic stop on a road leading to the central Bolivian city of Cochabamba, a group of coca-chewing demonstrators man a barricade of tree trunks.

How American tax breaks brought a Chinese solar energy giant to Ohio: The Inflation Reduction Act restored American manufacturing jobs – and gave China an opportunity to extend its dominance in some clean energy technologies. Bloomberg

***  US Politics + Elections ***

The 13 best counties to watch for outcome clues on election night Cook Political Report

POTUS: A new Morning Consult poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 50% to 47%.

POTUS: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has Harris ahead 47% to 46%.

TX-SEN: A new UT Tyler Poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) clinging to a two-point lead over challenger Colin Allred (D), 47% to 45%.

How wrong could America’s pollsters be? Gamblers are a lot more confident that Donald Trump will win. Economist

Polymarket is all about vibes, too: This isn’t a reason to ignore election betting markets — it could be why they’re right. John Herrman

How Trump is using truth social to concoct and spread conspiracy theories NYT

Donald Trump is once again ready to do anything to challenge the outcome if defeated: Le Monde reports the US is holding its breath, as the Republican candidate's methods have been known since 2020: unfounded proclamation of victory, possible local blockades by his supporters of the certification of results, judicial warfare and even violence.

How the Trump campaign’s gamble on a provocative comic backfired: Harris says Republican rival is ‘dividing our country’ after his New York City rally aired racist and demeaning remarks. WSJ

Donald Trump got the Tony Hinchcliffe he hired Hershal Pandya

WSJ: Trump says Madison Square Garden rally was ‘absolute love fest’

NYT: Trump tries to talk his way past rally fallout

Le Monde: Trump forgoes apology for racist remarks at NYC rally

50 Cent turned down a $3 million offer to perform at Donald Trump’s controversial rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Variety reports.

Bitcoin surge as investors bet on Trump victory: The Times reports the Republican presidential candidate has pledged to make America ‘the bitcoin superpower of the world.

Where’s Ivanka? Donald J. Trump’s oldest daughter and former top aide was once one of his most prominent campaign surrogates. Lately, she’s noticeably absent. NYT

Le Monde: Trump ally Steve Bannon released after four months in prison for contempt of Congress

AFP: Jennifer Lopez to boost Harris at glitzy Las Vegas event

+ President Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a $3 billion investment towards port infrastructure in Maryland

How podcasts became the new battleground state Nicholas Quah

Joe Rogan won’t even leave his house to interview Kamala Harris Matt Stieb

Mr. Bezos went to Washington. But he never arrived. The billionaire made splashy purchases of The Washington Post and a mansion in Washington. But his status as a power player in the nation’s capital was never realized. NYT

WP: Andrea Mitchell is ending her MSNBC show after 16 years

America’s foreign policy has changed — and must remain changed: Global economic power has for too long been concentrated in the hands of large corporations and state-run enterprises. Chris Murphy 

+ The writer is the junior US senator for Connecticut

Polling shows most voters say they’ve been exposed to AI misinformation: Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI) released new polling on voters’ attitudes towards AI policy and their experiences with AI content during this year’s presidential election. The polling arrives in the final weeks of an election cycle that has featured a flood of AI-generated content. The new polling shows that fifty-five percent of all voters, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, say they’ve been exposed to AI-generated fake information this presidential election.

+ The poll, conducted by Morning Consult from October 16 to 19, surveyed 2,001 registered voters with a margin of error of ±2%. The full poll is available here.

+  About a third of the poll respondents said they were not confident in their ability to distinguish AI generated content from authentic content. 

OpenAI is violating a slew of laws and regulations, including President Joe Biden’s sweeping executive order and the White House’ AI Bill of Rights, according to a complaint filed by the privacy advocacy nonprofit Electronic Privacy Information Center, or EPIC. The complaint filed with the Federal Trade Commission builds on existing consumer protection and antitrust investigations the agency is conducting into OpenAI.

+ “OpenAI is the subject of this complaint, largely because they've really set themselves up as a leader in the generative AI field, and because their products have been used by so many.”

American Security Project, a non-partisan think tank, began a new initiative today called AI 2030, with the support of an array of former national security officials, generals, and some of the world’s leading AI developers — including OpenAI. The initiative is meant to shape public dialogue about US competition against China on AI.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

The AI boom may unleash a global surge in electronic waste: Most e-waste is never recycled. Data center upgrades for AI projects could significantly add to the problem, researchers say. WP

Max Richter: ‘AI music is probably in the charts and we don’t realise’: The wildly popular composer has clocked up three billion streams and soundtracked dozens of films. Now he fears for the future of creativity. The Times

Universal Music Group, which has sued AI start-ups for copyright infringement, has partnered with Klay Vision, a music generator that says it won’t rip off artists.

Silent firing is the new quiet quitting: Companies need to find a way to pay for investments in artificial intelligence. FC

How real-time AI facial filters can influence romantic attraction: A study used artificial intelligence to transform the smiles of volunteers during speed-dating sessions to investigate how this affected their interactions. The Times

Musk’s xAI in talks to raise funding valuing it at $40 billion: WSJ reports the fundraising is poised to result in a much higher valuation for the startup, which was pegged at $24 billion this past spring.

Sierra, an AI start-up co-founded by Bret Taylor, the chairman of OpenAI, closed a funding round that values it at $4.5 billion.

Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund leads $500mn fundraising for AI cloud group Crusoe Energy: FT reports the deal values infrastructure start-up at $3bn as it benefits from spending surge on generative AI.

AFP: Google reports strong growth driven by AI, Cloud

FT: Google’s strong earnings boosted by cloud computing growth

Meta is reportedly working on a search engine for its chatbot users to reduce the service’s reliance on Google and Microsoft’s Bing.

Reuters: OpenAI builds first chip with Broadcom and TSMC, scales back foundry ambition

+ @pmddomingos: Apple has always been known for its tight integration of hardware and software. And now with Apple Intelligence it’s adding vaporware to the mix.

Bloomberg: Softbank’s Son Says Nvidia is undervalued as super AI looms

+ “$9 Trillion of capex for Artificial Super Intelligence is very reasonable. In fact, it may be too small” -- Masayoshi Son

Suck up to your fake CEO: The deepfake scam explosion has only just begun. Economist

A rural Missouri town fights Big Tech, and itself: Residents of Peculiar battled developers and some of their local officials to keep a giant data center out of their community. NYT

Czech group buys stake in Rolls-Royce mini nuclear project: The Times reports the partnership to push forward deployment of small modular reactors.

Nikkei: Founder of TikTok owner ByteDance tops China's rich list

Too many people want to be social-media influencers: That is good for companies but bad for “creators.” Economist

Who stole 24 tons of cheddar? ‘Sophisticated’ cheese heist sparks police hunt. Neal’s Yard Dairy in London reported the theft of more than $389,000 worth of artisan cheese. WSJ

Inside the colorful and cultish world of Nerds gummy clusters: Sales of Nerds have greatly increased in recent years, the company says. The secret? A multicolored orb. NYT

Investors are betting on 'India story' with quick delivery apps: Zepto CEO: Startups aim for rapid growth but face accusations of undercutting traditional retailers. Nikkei

How Callaway’s bet on driving range chain Topgolf went off course: The merger of hospitality and golfing has fallen victim to changing consumer habits and high costs. FT

IKEA to compensate East German prisoners for forced labor: DW reports the German branch of IKEA has pledged millions to compensate victims of the former Communist East German regime, who were forced to make furniture components in the GDR.

Biodiversity: The world is not on track to protect 30% of land and sea by 2030: Le Monde reports a United Nations report published during COP16, which is being held in Colombia, asserts that the surface area of protected zones must double on land and triple at sea over the next six years.

*** Culture ***

How to give a good speech: Before you begin, what is it that you really want to say? FT

Are bosses right to insist that workers return to the office? Company mandates are infuriating employees. Economist

*** Sport ***

The Chagos Islands: A new Maldives? UK ownership and a US military base have kept the vast Indian Ocean archipelago, and its waves, off-limits for 60 years. Now with the UK handing over sovereignty, does surfing have a new Maldives on its hands? Surfer

NBA walks a fine line on China as commissioner eyes return: Sports leagues juggle free speech with need to stay in Beijing's good graces. Nikkei

Have the Boston Celtics broken the NBA? Last season, the Celtics hoisted 3-pointers more than any other team in the league on the way to a championship. This season, they’ve shown that was just the beginning. WSJ

Real Madrid was snubbed for soccer’s top award—and it took that personally: When the Spanish club discovered its star player had been passed over for the Ballon d’Or, it didn’t take the slight lying down. Instead, it went completely ballistic. WSJ

+ Pep Guardiola insisted Tuesday that Rodri was a worthy winner of the Ballon d'Or, insisting no "elite group" had decided the Manchester City midfielder should be crowned the world's best footballer.

AFP: Sporting Lisbon confirm Man Utd interest in coach Ruben Amorim

Manchester United target Amorim: Portugal's next superstar coach? AFP reports twenty years ago it was Jose Mourinho. Now it is Ruben Amorim who appears set to move from Portugal to the Premier League with a reputation as Europe's next coaching superstar.

Men's Tour de France 'comes home' in 2025, as women's Tour gets tougher: Le Monde reports this will be the first edition of the men's race since 2020 to take place exclusively in France, as the routes for both the men's and women's races were revealed in Paris on Tuesday.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal