Caracal Daily | October 31

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Always Be Communicating.

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Trump told Netanyahu he wants Gaza war over by time he enters office — sources: TOI reports the Republican nominee has repeatedly called for Israel to end war quickly, but ex-Trump aide and Israeli official are first to reveal that the request has a timeline attached.

US draws up draft Israel-Lebanon ceasefire plan: FT reports the proposal leaked as senior Washington officials head to the region in an effort to end the year-long conflict.

+ @AFP: #BREAKING Lebanon PM says hopes for ceasefire with Israel in 'coming hours or days'

Poll shows Israelis massively favor Trump over Harris in US election: TOI reports that Channel 12 survey finds 66% prefer Republican candidate; separate poll finds Netanyahu preferred to former PM Bennett as Likud rises amid war successes.

Israeli settlers set their sights on a new beginning in Gaza: The Times reports as hostilities intensify in the north of the territory, hardliners sense an opportunity to expand into land that they regard as their own.

How the Houthis went from ragtag rebels to global threat: The Gaza war has allowed the Iran-backed Yemeni militants to broaden alliances with Iraqi militias, African jihadists, and Russia. WSJ

North Korea troop deal exposes Putin's weakness: NATO should be prepared for a wide range of endgames, including a rapid collapse of a rotten regime in Moscow. James Stavridis 

Putin’s hidden vulnerability: To break the Kremlin’s war machine, the West must exploit the grievances and fears of ordinary Russians. Peter Pomerantsev

Catastrophic flooding in Spain kills at least 95 people: WSJ reports more than a year’s worth of rain fell overnight, washing away bridges and flooding towns.

Around Valencia, almost a hundred dead in the 'floods of the century': 'The water came all at once, like a tsunami': Le Monde reports the torrential rains that swept through southeastern Spain from Tuesday evening to Wednesday killed at least 95 people. Many are still missing.

The euro zone’s economy grew by 0.4% in the three months to September, exceeding the 0.2% expected by analysts. GDP growth in the bloc has been sluggish this year, particularly hampered by a lagging German economy.

European countries, trailing US economy, hike taxes and trim spending: WP reports the largest economies — Britain, France and Germany — are confronting sluggish growth and soaring debt as they struggle to produce their budgets for next year.

Rachel Reeves’s ‘shock and awe’ budget represents a huge gamble: The Times reports the chancellor’s economic hopes rely on encouraging businesses to expand and invest — the same businesses which argue that her tax rises will have the opposite effects.

UK's Labour government hikes taxes in first budget: Le Monde reports the British Treasury chief Rachel Reeves told lawmakers Wednesday that taxes will rise by £40 billion in order to plug a hole in the public finances and provide new funding for public services.

The British budget combines large numbers and a narrow vision: A bigger state but an irrational way to fund it. Economist

Me in Politico on the LinkedIn post soliciting staffers from the now-governing UK Labour Party to campaign for Kamala Harris for POTUS, which blew up into a surprise diplomatic storm on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Marc Ross, a DC comms executive and Republican who has campaigned for the Conservatives in the UK in the past, said the LinkedIn post gave the Trump campaign “a ‘what about it’ cover on foreign interference in the 2024 election.”

Indeed, Ross is a testament to the fact that both the left and right across the Atlantic conduct campaign exchanges during elections, using their own time and cash. He has helped British Conservatives link up with Republicans to help with US campaigns, too. “People who love politics and love campaigns tend to volunteer and work on campaigns all over the globe,” he said.

You can read the full article here. 

Britain reported its first case of the mpox strain that caused an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has reported 31,000 suspected cases and 1,000 death.

Japan's parliament convenes Nov. 11 to choose prime minister: Nikkei reports after losing majority, LDP courts support to defend Ishiba as top leader.

US defense industry strategy stumbles into Japan's political uncertainty: Nikkei reports plans for ship repair, missile co-production are crucial to counter China, Pentagon says.

US and South Korea call for North Korea to withdraw troops from Russia: Le Monde reports Russia and North Korea have deepened their political and military alliance as the Ukraine war has dragged on. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has not denied the deployment of North Korean troops to his country but has also refused to confirm it, while Russia's ambassador to the UN on Wednesday called them "mere assertions."

North Koreans fighting for Russia points to China's waning clout: Nikkei reports Beijing warns against Ukraine escalation as Pyongyang and Moscow grow closer.

+ @dwnews: DEVELOPING: North Korea has fired a ballistic missile towards the sea off its east coast, according to South Korea.

+ @W7VOA: Japan’s defense ministry says the flight of North Korea’s ICBM lasted one hour and 26 minutes, the longest of any ballistic missile ever launched by Pyongyang

Something has changed inside North Korea: Troops to Russia, signs of an imminent nuclear test, and death sentences for K-pop. Economist

‘Do it for your country’: Chinese officials urge women to get pregnant: The Times reports as China grows increasingly desperate to arrest its falling birthrate, local party workers are ringing women to encourage them to have more babies.

Analysis: Ministries compete to show economic loyalty to Xi Jinping: Housing, reform, and central bank officials feel the anti-corruption campaign's threat. Nikkei

China’s agents of chaos: The military logic of Beijing’s growing partnerships. Oriana Skylar Mastro

Taiwan’s race for secure internet detours around Musk’s Starlink: WSJ reports SpaceX’s network hasn’t cracked the market on an island where self-sufficiency is a matter of survival.

Bloomberg: AI’s $1.3 trillion future increasingly hinges on Taiwan

+ Stock market is hottest major Asian exchange thanks to AI

+ ‘Taiwan is really the engine that’s driving AI,’ says analyst

The next AI debate is about geopolitics: Data might be the “new oil,” but nations—not nature—will decide where to build data centers.  Jared Cohen

+  Jared Cohen is the president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs and co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute.

Argentina’s Javier Milei fires foreign minister over pro-Cuba vote: FT reports the president’s office says the country is ‘categorically opposed to the dictatorship’ in Havana.

America’s economy grew by an annualized rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, just shy of analysts’ expectations of 3%. America’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said that strong consumer spending and exports boosted growth.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

3%: The proportion of people in Michigan, a swing state, who claim Middle Eastern or North African origins.

POTUS: A new CMC-Rose/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 51% to 46%.

Why Kamala Harris’s chances of victory just jumped: Our forecast now puts her level with Donald Trump. Economist

NYT: Polls show Trump’s edge shrinking on voters’ top issue: The economy

Historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman still predicts Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in the presidential race, USA Today reports.

Polymarket’s influence on Wall Street’s election ‘game plan’ grows despite red flags Bloomberg

How Arnold endorsed Kamala: Schwarzenegger in recent days connected over the phone with Vice President Kamala Harris herself. Politico

A Las Vegas Sun editorial argues that Donald Trump’s cognitive decline is a “troubling concern.”

‘Garbage’ comments push Biden back into spotlight: WSJ reports the president hasn’t appeared at a campaign event with Kamala Harris since Labor Day. But he still managed to step on her message.

Kamala Harris’s Joe Biden problem: WP reports Harris stood on the Ellipse and delivered a clear and unifying message to a thundering crowd. Moments earlier, in the White House illuminated behind her, Biden had sat alone at a computer.

Harris distances herself from Biden remarks: WSJ reports the vice president noted that Biden “clarified his comments” following his call last night with Voto Latino.

Kamala Harris responds after Biden ‘calls Trump voters garbage’: The Times reports Donald Trump seizes on president’s remarks by taking the wheel of a garbage truck and comparing them to Hillary Clinton’s fateful reference to ‘deplorables.’

Joe Rogan said he previously warned Tony Hinchcliffe about his Puerto Rico joke, telling him “that’s the one that’s gonna get you stabbed,” Variety reports.

Nicky Jam told his 43 million followers on Instagram that he is withdrawing his endorsement of Donald Trump because he can’t look past the Trump campaign’s disrespect towards Puerto Rico.

Trump has no regrets about Garden bile, even if it sinks him: Reveling in bigotry and hostility wasn’t an act. And the former president isn’t sorry. Timothy L. O'Brien

A Harris victory means a fourth Obama term: At home, she’s no centrist. Abroad, she seems unprepared for the dangers ahead. WSJ - Editorial

Nikki Haley has made her peace with Trump. Not all of her supporters have. WSJ reports the former South Carolina governor has said she would campaign with the former president, but that offer hasn’t been accepted.

Miami Herald: A million Floridians would be kicked out under Trump’s mass deportation plans, report says

Mike Johnson vows major changes to Affordable Care Act if Trump wins election: WP reports the House speaker said Republicans would seek to overhaul the law, which provides health coverage to tens of millions and has been a frequent target of GOP repeal efforts.

Johnson’s ‘no Obamacare’ remark draws attention to unpopular stance: NYT reports Speaker Mike Johnson said a Trump victory would allow Republicans to embark on a “massive overhaul” of the Affordable Care Act. He said the party wants to “take a blowtorch to the regulatory state.”

Spanish-language election misinformation has a mass audience — and a long shelf life: WSJ reports Latino voters who look to YouTube and WhatsApp for their news often find unchecked conspiracy theories.

US crypto exchange Coinbase committed another $25 million of funding to Fairshake, an influential political action committee for the digital-asset industry.

Fact Sheet: Key AI accomplishments in the year since the Biden-⁠Harris administration’s landmark Executive Order: One year ago, President Biden issued a landmark Executive Order to ensure that America leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of artificial intelligence (AI). The Executive Order directed sweeping actions to manage AI’s safety and security risks, protect Americans’ privacy, advance equity and civil rights, stand up for consumers and workers, promote innovation and competition, advance American leadership around the world, and more. WH Release

Center for AI Policy (CAIP) Congressional endorsements for Election 2024: The Center for AI Policy (CAIP) announced endorsements in Election 2024 for incumbent Representative Tom Kean, Jr. to continue representing New Jersey's 7th Congressional District and US Senate candidate Caroline Gleich to represent the people of Utah. Press Release

+ CAIP conducted a survey of notable races this election cycle for the first time as a small pilot project to ascertain federal candidates’ support of AI safety legislation and policies.

+ "I’m proud to earn the endorsement of the Center for AI Policy. As technology continues to evolve, we need a digital expert in Congress to help shape American policy for decades to come." -- Caroline Gleich - Candidate for US Senate (D-UT) + Ski mountaineer and athlete

Will Silicon Valley’s next member of Congress be tough on tech? Silicon Valley is set to get fresh congressional representation in the upcoming election, with two Democrats vying to fill retiring Rep. Anna G. Eshoo’s coveted seat in California’s 16th District. WP

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Somewhere amid the Frappuccinos, fans say Starbucks lost something: Customers are turning away from the coffee giant, and its new chief executive, Brian Niccol, has to figure out how to get them back. NYT

Starbucks turns to Sharpies, mugs, and a price freeze to stem traffic slide: FT reports new CEO Brian Niccol pledges to simplify ‘overly complex’ menu and return to its coffee house roots.

Bloomberg: Starbucks’ Niccol maps out vision, including four-minute coffee

+ New CEO says company needs to put guardrails on customization

+ Coffee chain to bring back condiment bars and ceramic mugs

Home Depot’s 12-foot skeletons spawned an industry of giant Halloween decor: Skelly has helped set sales records for the home improvement giant every year since its release in 2020. Its invention was a stroke of inspiration. Bloomberg

Disney to pay more than $500 million to air the Grammys: WSJ reporta the music industry’s marquee awards show will leave CBS after 2026, ending a decadeslong run.

Is Denver’s big bet on e-bikes paying off? Since 2022, the Colorado city has handed out close to 15,000 vouchers in a bid to cut traffic, clean the air and spark an electric cycling boom. Bloomberg

Three Mile Island, notorious in nuclear power’s past, may herald its future: The Pennsylvania plant, site of the worst US nuclear energy accident, is at the forefront of efforts to expand nuclear capacity to meet rising electricity demand. NYT

Wall Street giants to make $50 billion bet on AI and power projects: WSJ reports KKR and Energy Capital Partners plan to invest in development of data centers and the power infrastructure to support them.

How Arm could be the unexpected winner of the AI investment boom: Shares in the British chip designer, which is controlled by SoftBank, have trebled in price over the past year. But its ambitions go much further. FT

Profit at Samsung Electronics Co.’s mainstay chip operations missed market expectations, reflecting the Korean tech leader’s struggles to catch up in lucrative AI chips.

Can startups thrive in an age of AI? Hemant Taneja + Fareed Zakaria

Amazon AI veteran joins PwC to lead innovation and AI push: WSJ reports Matt Wood is the accounting firm’s first commercial technology and innovation officer.

Microsoft’s GitHub unit cuts AI deals with Google, Anthropic: Bloomberg reports GitHub’s Copilot coding assistant will offer new AI models as option for users who want to switch from OpenAI.

Microsoft earnings show AI is bolstering its cloud Business: WSJ reports the quarterly revenue for the cloud unit rose 33%, indicating that the company's heavy investment in artificial intelligence is paying off.

Microsoft’s big bet on AI reaps reward: The Times reports first-quarter profits of $24.7bn beat Wall Street forecasts.

Microsoft cloud revenue rises on AI boom but softer outlook weighs on shares: FT reports warnings of slowing Azure growth and rising data centre costs dampen initial optimism on tech giant’s quarterly earnings.

FT: Meta sees AI spending accelerating as earnings top forecasts

Facebook company Meta shows strong growth as AI spending surges: Le Monde reports the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp said net profit in the third quarter was $15.7 billion – up 35% on the same period last year.

How The New York Times is using generative AI as a reporting tool: LLMs help reporters transcribe and sort through hundreds of hours of leaked audio. ARS

Alexa’s new AI brain is stuck in the lab: Amazon is eager to take on ChatGPT, but technical challenges have forced the company to repeatedly postpone the updated voice assistant’s debut. Bloomberg

Siemens to buy simulation software group Altair for $10.6bn: FT reports the deal likely to mark a conclusion to the consolidation in engineering software industry.

*** Culture ***

Giorgio Armani takes Manhattan — again: Peter Howarth talks to the designer about his triumphant return to New York and why his clothes are fashionable again. The Times

Churchill at War premieres December 4: From Ron Howard and Brian Grazer comes a groundbreaking 4-part docuseries on Netflix examining Winston Churchill's pivotal role in World War II.

Nancy Silverton and Stephen Starr’s Osteria Mozza is finally ready to open: Washingtonian reports the massive Italian restaurant and market in Georgetown debuts November 10.

*** Sport ***

TA: MLS is considering changing to a fall-spring calendar after the 2026 World Cup

The 76ers want to rest their aging stars. The NBA wants to punish them for it. WSJ reports a week into the season, the Sixers’ star players have been sidelined with nagging injuries. It’s drawn the eye of the league office.

Bloomberg: Traders banned from watching World Series amid Ohtani craze

+ Compliance rules prevent Tokyo traders from watching Live

+ Second game had 15.9 million viewers in Japan on average

Investment firm Arctos Partners is in talks to acquire a minority stake in the National Football League’s Buffalo Bills, according to people with knowledge of the matter.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal