Caracal Daily | December 12
Caracal Daily | December 12
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
Key findings from the Navigator Election 2024 media environment survey
The Global Strategy Group conducted an online survey of 5,000 registered voters to analyze the media consumption landscape ahead of the 2024 US federal election. The study reveals significant shifts in how voters consume media, with important implications for audience engagement strategies.
Key communications trends:
+ Traditional cable news continues its decline, with only 54% of voters reporting regular viewership across major networks (Fox News 36%, CNN 31%, MSNBC 25%). However, Trump base voters remain highly engaged with Fox News, maintaining 53% regular viewership.
+ Streaming platforms have emerged as the dominant method of television consumption, with 55% of voters primarily accessing content through streaming services or a hybrid streaming-cable approach. This trend is particularly strong among swing voters, where 61% prefer streaming platforms compared to 42% with cable subscriptions.
+ Social media platforms show robust engagement, led by Facebook, which has 78% daily usage across all voters and 80% among swing voters specifically. YouTube (75%), TikTok (73%), and Snapchat (71%) follow as preferred platforms among swing voters. Alternative media sources, including social media and podcasts, reach 52% of swing voters.
Audience segmentation patterns:
+ Harris base voters predominantly consumed broadcast news (50%) and CNN (38%)
+ Trump base voters concentrated on Fox News (51%) and showed high Facebook engagement (81%)
+ Swing voters split attention between social media (45%) and streaming services (61%)
+ Traditional broadcast news shows had the most substantial Harris support (+17 points)
+ Digital platforms, especially podcasts and social media, demonstrated more substantial Trump support
+ Streaming services emerged as the most politically balanced medium
Communications implications:
The findings indicate a need for a multi-platform approach to reach different voter segments effectively. Organizations must prioritize digital-first platforms while maintaining a targeted traditional media presence where demographically appropriate.
The data suggests three key strategic priorities:
+ Immediate focus on establishing and strengthening streaming platform presence
+ Development of comprehensive, integrated social media strategies across multiple platforms
+ Targeted maintenance of traditional cable presence for specific demographics
Long-term recommendations include investing in streaming content infrastructure to support growing digital demand and developing platform-specific content strategies. Organizations must maintain operational flexibility to adapt to the continuously evolving media landscape and changing voter information preferences.
The survey results underscore a fundamental transformation in media consumption patterns, requiring organizations to adopt a high-low, holistic approach to achieve comprehensive audience reach.
Success in this evolving landscape demands careful attention to platform selection and the adoption of a "high-low" communications strategy. This strategy focuses mainly on digital platforms while maintaining an effective traditional media presence.
You can read the full memo and access the presentation deck here.
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
The fall of Bashar al-Assad is a major blow for Iran: Will the weakened regime reform, or race for the bomb? Economist
What the future of Syria might actually look like: An Israeli military legend lays out potential scenarios for a new Middle East. Politico
Analysis: Bashar Assad's fall reminds Xi Jinping of a Donald Trump bombshell: China's president was with Trump in Florida in 2017 when US missiles struck Syria. Nikkei
US-China relations are wild: President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration next month, CBS reported, citing multiple sources.
US-China officials to hold economic talks before Trump return: AFP reports economic officials in outgoing President Joe Biden's administration are set to meet their Chinese counterparts this week for talks, in a final effort to strengthen ties before Donald Trump's White House return.
China is considering letting the yuan weaken next year, as it braces for higher US tariffs. Donald Trump has promised a 60% tariff on Chinese imports into the US.
China AI military use spurs latest US chip export controls, analysts say: Nikkei reports lessons from Ukraine and Israel show rapid escalation in speed and scale of combat.
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned China's dispatch of ships to nearby waters and urged Beijing to immediately stop its "military intimidation."
Ukraine launched an attack on Russian infrastructure, causing a fire at an oil refinery in Bryansk, a region in the west which hosts pipelines transporting oil to Europe.
Russia could launch its lethal new intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine again soon, the Pentagon said Wednesday, as both sides wrestle for a battlefield advantage that will give them leverage in any negotiations to end the nearly 3-year war.
Putin’s regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think: Russia’s resurrected military industrial complex is cannibalising the rest of its economy. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
ElevenLabs’ AI voice generation ‘very likely’ used in a Russian influence operation: TC reports one recent campaign was “very likely” helped by commercial AI voice generation products, including tech publicly released by the hot startup ElevenLabs, according to a recent report from Massachusetts-based threat intelligence company Recorded Future.
+ The report describes a Russian-tied campaign designed to undermine Europe’s support for Ukraine, dubbed “Operation Undercut,” that prominently used AI-generated voiceovers on fake or misleading “news” videos.
Ranking the most influential people in Europe: Class of 2025 - Politico 28: The doers, disrupters, and dreamers shaping European politics and policy in the year ahead. Politico
+ The most powerful person in Europe = Giorgia Meloni
Macron eyes political truce to calm turmoil in France: President negotiates with party leaders of left and right to ensure survival of next government. FT
British politics enters the “death zone”: Every party in British politics is in danger, whether they think it or not. Economist
Could the next pope come from Africa or Asia? Those are the regions where the Catholic church is growing fastest. Economist
Ethiopia, Somalia reach compromise to end feud, Turkey says: DW reports the two East African sides have been fighting with each other since January. The agreement was reached with the assistance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Qatar’s $500bn wealth fund targets bigger deals as LNG windfall looms: New chief says QIA will deploy cash ‘more aggressively’ as it conducts investment review ahead of huge influx. FT
DW: Brazil's President Lula to require further surgery
Bloomberg: Brazil ‘goes big’ with jumbo hike set to lift battered currency
+ Policymakers raise rates, signal two more similar hikes
+ Real likely to outperform as BCB seeks to restore confidence
Milei promises inflation will soon be a 'bad memory' in first anniversary speech: President touts US trade deal with Trump, vows to remove currency controls and says “happy times” lie ahead in national broadcast marking first year in office. BAT
College graduates are turning on Milei after helping him win power: Argentina’s libertarian president derides universities as bastions of wokeness and elitism. But publicly funded higher education is a point of civic pride. Bloomberg
Canada central bank makes half point rate cut to 3.25%: AFP reports Canada's central bank on Wednesday lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent, seeking to aid a slowing economy facing uncertainty following a tariff threat from US President-elect Donald Trump.
Bank of Canada warns Donald Trump’s tariffs will ‘dramatically’ hit growth: FT reports the central bank has slashed borrowing costs five times this year in an effort to combat unemployment and boost growth.
Reuters: Trump tariff plan puts $3 billion in Diageo, Becle tequila imports at risk
Mitch McConnell: ‘We’re in a very, very dangerous world right now’: The Republican Senator on his plans to spend the last two years of his term fighting back against an increasingly isolationist GOP. FT
AI weapons and the dangerous illusion of human control: America must let autonomous systems operate more freely in war. Sebastian Elbaum + Jonathan Panter
WP: NASDAQ index breaks 20,000 for first time as Big Tech carries the benchmark
The best of books 2024: This year’s top picks from Foreign Affairs’ reviewers. FA
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump’s day one will unleash over 25 executive orders, sources say: FC reports while some of the moves would face delays due to court challenges, there are dozens of actions that Trump can take with the stroke of a pen.
Donald Trump is expected to be named Time magazine’s “Person of the Year,” Politico reports.
Why is Joni Ernst coming around on Pete Hegseth? A lifeboat arrives for Republicans. Charles P. Pierce
FBI Director Christopher Wray said that he is stepping down at the end of the current administration.
Good luck reforming the Department of Defense Harlan Ullman
FTC: President-elect Donald Trump tapped Federal Trade Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to lead the consumer protection and antitrust agency. Trump also selected Mark Meador, a former aide to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) to be confirmed as the third Republican on the FTC.
The criminal’s ‘go-to cryptocurrency’ has a new friend in the White House: Howard Lutnick has defended the stablecoin company which has been used by gangs and US adversaries. FT
America can’t break its wellness habit: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fits into a long history of Americans who have waged battle against conventional medicine. Shayla Love
How tech's right-wing elite made 'debanking' claims into a political rallying point: Highly influential figures in tech, including Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen, allege the cryptocurrency industry is a victim of banking discrimination. NBC News
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) will chair the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX-36) was selected to chair the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee.
Anthony Weiner is running for New York’s city council.
45: A new survey found that 45% of “Swing voters” in the US presidential election reported getting most of their news from social media. Just 39% cited local news as their primary source of information, and 38% cited broadcast news.
New: Launch of ETO AGORA ( Emerging Technology Observatory - AI Governance and Regulatory Archive): A living collection of AI-relevant laws, regulations, standards, and other governance documents from the United States and worldwide. Updated regularly, AGORA includes summaries, document text, thematic tags, and filters to help you quickly discover and analyze key developments in AI governance. Access here.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Price of coffee to skyrocket as weather hits global market: WP reports cost of arabica beans reached a near 50-year high this week while the price of robusta beans has also risen.
Honda to end self-driving tie-up with GM as Cruise unit founders: Nikkei reports the US partner's exit from robotaxis strands plans for Japan launch.
Bloomberg: Microsoft sees $800 million charge on stake in GM’s Cruise
ExxonMobil announced plans to increase oil production. The American oil giant said it will produce 5.4m barrels of oil per day by 2030, up from 3.7m last year, and increase annual capital expenditure from roughly $29bn a year to $33bn a year.
AI thinks differently than people do. Here’s why that matters. Generative AI isn’t the strategic oracle many say it is. Like any other form of AI, it is a mirror that reflects patterns, trends, and decisions of the past. It cannot reliably break new ground or generate truly novel solutions given that it relies on pre-existing data and learned probabilities. Teppo Felin + Matthias Holweg
Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman hires ex-DeepMind staff for AI health unit: FT reports the rival companies are racing to create lucrative applications from cutting-edge technology.
What do the gods of generative AI have in store for 2025? OpenAI and Google have unveiled their next generation of products. Economist
Adobe fell in extended trading after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the creative software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.
Google introduced Gemini 2.0, which the company says is twice as fast as its predecessor and more powerful than the larger "pro" version of Gemini 1.5.
Google launched Gemini 2.0, its new AI model for practically everything: The Verge reports Gemini 2.0 can generate images and audio, is faster and cheaper to run, and is meant to make AI agents possible.
Google unveils AI agent that can use websites on its own: The experimental tool can browse spreadsheets, shopping sites and other services, before taking action on behalf of the computer user. NYT
Google rolls out faster Gemini AI model to power agents: Company expects AI assistants will follow its users around the web. Bloomberg
Google races to bring AI-powered ‘agents’ to consumers: FT reports the tech group unveils Gemini upgrades as it battles Apple and OpenAI in making practical AI assistants for the masses.
Google’s new AI projects aren’t ready for the masses yet. Good! Google DeepMind is showing off an AI assistant that sees and a Chrome extension that can browse the web on its own. They’re for testing purposes only—and that makes sense. FC
The GPT era is already ending The Atlantic
Their job is to push computers toward AI doom: It’s largely up to companies to determine whether their AI is capable of superhuman harm. At Anthropic, the Frontier Red Team looks for the danger zone. WSJ
Character dot ai is being sued for encouraging kids to self-harm: FC reports the lawsuit alleges that Character dot AI “poses a clear and present danger to American youth.”
Get ready for ‘long thinking,’ AI’s next leap forward: A new generation of AI models will take its time to reason, providing more reliable answers to increasingly complex questions. Steven Rosenbush
Movie stars, matchmakers, and aunties: How WhatsApp became an unstoppable cultural force: The world’s most popular messaging platform is synonymous with the internet for millions of people. ROW
SpaceX has reached a valuation of $350bn after the company agreed to purchase $1.25bn of employees’ shares at $185 each.
A new pair of satellites are set to create ‘solar eclipses on demand’: WP reports two satellites from the European Space Agency are designed to create eclipses on demand, which scientists hope will lead to breakthroughs in solar studies.
*** Culture ***
Paris is replacing 60,000 parking spaces with trees: ‘Our motto is, imagine that every parked car is a tree.’ FC
Two decades after ‘The Simple Life,’ Paris Hilton and Nicole Richie are ready for an encore LAT
80 colleges could close by 2029, even as elite Ivy League schools thrive: FC reports many colleges are struggling financially as enrollment falls. Blame skyrocketing tuition and growing doubts about the value of a degree.
*** Sport ***
Brazilian football looks like the next Premier League: Awash with money, the country’s teams are conquering South America. Economist
FIFA announced a $1 billion (£785,000) broadcast deal with DAZN for next year’s Club World Cup.
Saudi Arabia 2034 World Cup explained: Why FIFA’s awarding of the competition is controversial TA
Saudi Arabia 2034: Another FIFA World Cup of migrant worker abuse, repressed human rights and ‘sham’ processes Henry Bushnell
Why I believe the time is right for Cadillac to join Formula One Mark Phelan
How go-karting has become a multi-million dollar path to F1 racing WP
NFL + Nike: The NFL has announced a 13-year extension with Nike to continue as their official uniform partner.
Private equity firms Ares and Arctos buy NFL team stakes: FT reports the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are the first US football franchises to strike deals with powerful Wall Street funds.
CNBC: NFL approves sale of minority stake in the Philadelphia Eagles at $8.3 billion value
+ The National Football League has approved the sale of a minority stake in the Philadelphia Eagles to two family investment groups.
Bill Belichick calls his next play: Heading to college at 72 years old: The six-time Super Bowl champion head coach is on the verge of taking over at the University of North Carolina. WSJ
Bill Belichick finalizing deal to become UNC football coach: WP reports Belichick, who won six Super Bowl titles over 24 seasons with the Patriots, turns 73 in April and will coach in college for the first time.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal