Caracal Daily | December 13

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Ross Rant ***

The United States AI regulatory environment for 2025

Based on three policy presentations I attended this week from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), Cooley LLP, and the Federalist Society, I expect significant shifts in the United States AI regulatory environment by 2025. 

Key themes will emerge around national competitiveness, reduced regulatory burden, and strategic technology competition with China.

You can read the full memo here.

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

How Assad's army collapsed in Syria: Demoralized conscripts, absent allies Reuters

How the new Syria might succeed or fail: Much will go wrong. But for now, celebrate a tyrant’s fall. Economist

Assad’s fall humiliated Putin and could dent his global ambitions: Bashar al-Assad’s fall nine years after Russia saved his regime is a stunning blow to Vladimir Putin’s goal of forging Russia into a world power to compete with the United States. WP

In the face of Syria's new leadership, West hesitates, Turkey and Qatar seek contact, Russia aims to limit the damage: Le Monde reports while the fall of Bashar al-Assad has been widely welcomed, Western powers remain cautious, awaiting clarity on HTS' intentions. Meanwhile, Ankara is expressing satisfaction, Doha is offering to reopen its embassy in Damascus and the Kremlin is striving to safeguard its interests in Syria.

With Bashar al-Assad's fall, Iran's line of external defense has been breached: Shocked by the debacle of its regional proxies, the Iranian theocracy is at a turning point, and may be tempted to progress faster on nuclear weapons, or, conversely, to seek negotiations. Alain Frachon

+ The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the country must adapt to the new “realities” in Syria following the ousting of its ally, Bashar al-Assad.

‘We need time’: Syrians in Europe resist calls to return home: FT reports refugees in Germany and elsewhere are in ‘wait and see’ mode after fall of Assad regime.

Hamas concedes on Israeli troops in Gaza, raising hopes for hostage deal: WSJ reports militants also hand over list of hostages they would release under a pact.

Amnesty International accuses Israel of 'genocide' in Gaza: Le Monde reports the London-based rights organization said its findings were based on satellite images documenting devastation, fieldwork, and ground reports from Gazans as well as 'dehumanizing and genocidal statements by Israeli government and military officials.'

A Uyghur man escaped China’s Xinjiang. Cambodia deported him back. WP

+ @EamonJavers: DOJ announces the indictment of 14 North Korean nationals in a long running scheme to plant remote IT workers inside US companies to obtain cash for the regime and conduct cyber attacks in the US. American corporate WFH policies are the weak link the North Koreans are attacking here.

Romania + Bulgaria will become full members of the European Union’s Schengen area from January 1, 2025. 

The EU is making it simpler for individuals to sue the manufacturers of artificial intelligence systems that harm them, under expanded product liability protections. The EU’s Product Liability Directive, a roadmap for the Union’s 27 member states to enact their own legislation, was updated this week to include AI. It ensures there is a business to sue in Europe, and clarifies that liability falls on the manufacturer who controls and is responsible for updating tech products. 

NATO members are discussing increasing the alliance’s target for defense spending from 2% to 3%.

UK must raise defence spending to counter Russia, says NATO chief: Mark Rutte says it is ‘time to shift to a wartime mindset’ amid calls by military chiefs for the UK to increase its spending on defence to 3% of GDP. The Times

For Donald Trump, Europe's security is not about politics or morals, but about providing a service that deserves compensation: After the US president-elect threatened to withdraw from NATO, Europe is still divided over its strategic autonomy and what kind of support they should give their own arms industry in the face of America's behemoths. Jean-Michel Bezat

Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine cease-fire would be your job: WSJ reports President-elect Trump tells French and Ukrainian leaders he would want European troops to be present in Ukraine.

Spotlight on the shadow war: Inside Russia’s attacks on NATO territory: Since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian sabotage campaigns across North America and Europe have accelerated. Calculated campaigns of hybrid warfare show that Russia’s antagonistic foreign policy knows no bounds. In conjunction with its war in Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously executing a shadow war on NATO to destabilize, distress, and deter the transatlantic alliance from its staunch support of Ukrainian sovereignty. CSCE 

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, from 3.25% to 3%. It was the bank’s fourth such cut this year. 

‘Chinese spy’ with close links to Prince Andrew banned from UK: The Times reports the businessman was invited to the Duke of York’s birthday party and was authorized to act on his behalf to seek investors in China.

Argentines no longer love the dollar, thanks to Milei: Argentines have preferred the US dollar over the Argentine peso for decades – Milei may have achieved what once looked unachievable. BAT

Canada is examining the use of export taxes on major commodities it exports to the US — including uranium, oil and potash — if incoming President Donald Trump carries out his threat to impose broad tariffs.

Bloomberg: Canada weighs export taxes on uranium, oil if Trump starts trade war

+ Move would be a last resort to put economic pressure on US

+ Some US refiners rely heavily on cheap Canadian crude

Justin Trudeau renews a complicated relationship with Donald Trump: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's late dad, Pierre, famously likened his country's relationship with the US to being in bed with an elephant. Todd Spangler

+ Ontario may bar American-made alcohol in addition to restricting electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota if Trump imposes tariffs on all Canadian products.

How US firms battled a government crackdown to keep tech sales to China: An intense struggle has unfolded in Washington between companies and officials over where to draw the line on selling technology to China. NYT

Bloomberg: New Jerseyd drone mystery sparks FBI probe, resident hysteria

+ White House downplays risks as lawfully operated aircrafts

+ Federal government is sending drone detecting technology

“As big as bicycles or an SUV”: Mysterious drone swarms over New Jersey now occupy the FBI:  Handelsblatt reports they fly low, often at night, and fool police helicopters: the phenomenon in the US state on the east coast brings back memories of spy balloons. The White House is alarmed.

How America created the enemy it feared most: The United States killed its own allies, sabotaging itself in a part of Afghanistan where it never needed to be. NYT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Biden announces largest single-day act of clemency in modern history: WSJ reports the president will commute the sentences of around 1,500 people while he considers more clemency actions before he leaves office, including possible pre-emptive pardons.

Harris campaign remains in denial: Her former chief of staff still insists that the vice president ran a ‘flawless campaign.’ Karl Rove

WP: Trump pledges to pardon Jan. 6 rioters within hours of taking office

Donald Trump’s perfect 1980s day: For a man who rose to fame in the gilded yuppie era of New York City, today’s ringing the bell to open the stock exchange, and being named Person of the Year by Time, must have a certain appeal. NYT

Those battlin' Republicans are back at it: Instead of building on the coalition that carried Donald Trump back to the White House and the GOP to full control of Congress, the party is doing what it did in 2016, driving out anyone who fails a purity test. Nolan Finley

Donald Trump is planning a ‘brutal’ war on leakers and the press: Trump 2.0 will feature more media subpoenas, communications seizures, whistleblower prosecutions, and legal threats against news outlets. Rolling Stone

Power, intimidation, and the resurrection of Trump’s support for Hegseth: NYT reports the president-elect became convinced that letting Pete Hegseth fail would set off a feeding frenzy among senators. What followed was a MAGA swarm that helped salvage his bid, at least for now.

RFK Jr.’s daughter-in-law meets with Trump’s chosen CIA director about possible job: WP reports the president-elect has voiced support for Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, a former CIA operative, getting a senior role at the agency or in another national security post.

Patel’s warm Senate welcome reflects the GOP’s turn against the FBI: NYT reports Senate Republicans have largely embraced President-elect Donald J. Trump’s pick to run the bureau, demonstrating that his anti-FBI stance is now party orthodoxy.

Andrew Ferguson, whom Trump named Tuesday his FTC chair pick, wants to zero in on alleged censorship by Big Tech and promote innovation in the AI market—offering competing enforcement priorities for the agency’s tech policy.

+ In a statement Tuesday night, Ferguson vowed to “end Big Tech’s vendetta against competition and free speech.”

What Trump’s new antitrust enforcers mean for business: Expect easier dealmaking. Unless you are in Silicon Valley. Economist

The MAGA culture war comes for Silicon Valley: A powerful industry gets a fresh set of Washington antagonists — with a polarizing agenda. Politico

Trump vows to crush Big Tech, even as it warms to him: President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to rein in Big Tech, a longtime enemy, in his second term in office, while simultaneously building relationships with the biggest moguls in the business. Wash Exam

Meta has donated $1 million to President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural fund.

Reuters: Trump says he will meet with Amazon's Bezos next week

A wish list from CEOs for the Trump administration: The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council has plenty of advice for the incoming president. Here are their requests for the economy, healthcare, technology, and energy. WSJ

Republicans watch for Trump to break impasse on 2025 plans: The president-elect can sway GOP decisions by keeping the border and taxes in one bill or splitting them into two. WSJ

The Financial Technology Association is urging President-elect Trump and the new Congress to “curb regulatory overreach” on the use of artificial intelligence in the financial sector and to “refine regulatory frameworks” for AI governance in a package of “first hundred days” recommendations.

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Cardin unveils massive bill to counter China’s AI influence: Inside AI Policy reports Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), the retiring chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has unveiled a massive bill for countering China’s economic and military influence, including provisions for combatting AI-generated disinformation. The 328-page bill was released with about two weeks left for the current Congress, amid expectations by industry sources that the exiting Senate Democratic majority might try to push through an anti-China package as part of a federal spending bill or in stand-alone provisions.

Lessons from a shocking CEO murder: America’s toxic discourse means companies cannot be complacent about executive security. FT - Editorial

Luigi Mangione’s manifesto reveals his hatred of insurance companies: The man accused of killing Brian Thompson gets American health care wrong. Economist

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Exxon is building a plant that will sell energy to data centers.

Exxon's AI power play aims to beat nuclear: The oil major is betting Big Tech’s need for speed will open up a bigger market for gas-fired plants. Liam Denning

Why was a murder suspect’s Instagram taken down, but not his Goodreads? Luigi Mangione’s social media accounts attracted swift attention after he was arrested in the killing of UnitedHealthcare’s chief executive. When do companies scrub a digital trail? NYT

Was Henry Kissinger an AI “doomer”? A posthumous postscript on a hair-raising topic. Economist

AI is the frenemy of freedom: An optimistic view of the technology sees the possibility of it offering humans ‘superagency’ rather than as a threat. John Thornhill

+ The philosopher Isaiah Berlin’s views on freedom, in which different types of liberty are often incompatible, could become increasingly relevant to questions about AI and human agency.

What are the risks of artificial intelligence? A comprehensive living database of over 700 AI risks categorized by their cause and risk domain. AI Risk Repository

Chatbot apps pose dangers for teens: Axios reports platforms and apps that allow users to create and chat with AI-powered bots can addict teenagers, encourage self-harm, and expose minors to adult content, according to experts.

+ Parents in Texas filed a federal product liability lawsuit on Monday against companion app Character_AI and its founders, who have left the company.

+ In October, a Florida mom also sued Character_AI, blaming the company for her 14-year-old son's suicide.

+ The platforms, which are extremely popular with teens, often send emails intended to re-engage users, and their bots will not typically break character even when a user is in distress.

Data is still an AI pain point: You need clean, modernized data to use generative AI.

+ "Our big challenge is the unstructured data, and figure out how to categorize, cleanse it, and bring it in, in a form that can be useful... That’s the next frontier for us." --  Soumya Seetharam, SVP + CIO @ Corning

+ "Data cleanliness is a big deal. … Most companies have lots of information, but it’s not connected. Different departments have different kinds of information floating around. I think you’re going to see a lot of really unglamorous work that’s going to have to happen before we really unlock the power of these machine intelligences." -- Rita McGrath, Professor @ Columbia Business School 

Slack CEO: How to roll out artificial intelligence internally: Slack CEO Denise Dresser lists five types of AI users you need to know in your organization and offers guidance on how to engage them. MIT Management

Big Tech's $62 billion AI spending fuels pick-and shovel bets: Investments by Alphabet, Amazon.com and others may take years to pay off. Skeptics worry about a bubble. Bloomberg

Why AI could eat quantum computing’s lunch: Rapid advances in applying artificial intelligence to simulations in physics and chemistry have some people questioning whether we will even need quantum computers at all. Edd Gent

New magnetic flow has potential to revolutionise electronic devices: ‘Altermagnetism’ discovery could deliver ‘thousand-fold increase’ in memory and speed of computing components. FT

Google plans new smart glasses and VR headsets in Samsung partnership: FT reports the collaboration aims to take on Meta and Apple in hopes of gaining an edge in ‘next generation of computing.’

Artemis Accords celebrate 50 signatories: Payload reports more than a quarter of the world’s countries are now part of the Artemis Accords after Panama and Austria signed on in a pair of ceremonies on Wednesday at NASA HQ in Washington. 

NASA is looking at launch windows in 2025 or 2026 for its ESCAPADE Mars mission, which missed its expected October ride on New Glenn.

Scientists pinpoint when humans had babies with Neanderthals: WP reports that Neanderthals interbred with modern humans 47,000 years ago, passing down DNA that still exists in many modern-day people, according to two new studies.

Chanel appointed Matthieu Blazy as its top designer, the biggest job in fashion.

Reuters: Warner Bros Discovery sets stage for potential cable deal by splitting operations

No one wants to own cable TV networks anymore Peter Kafka

BAT: JPMorgan plans to hire 1,500 workers for global hub in Argentina

HSBC reviews retail banking outside UK and Hong Kong: FT reports the bank could scale back in countries including Mexico as it seeks further cost cuts.

Bitcoin is up by 138% this year. It is a nonsense-free rally: The link between digital assets and mainstream finance is strengthening. Economist

Rio Tinto’s US$2.5-billion lithium plan is a win for Milei: BAT reports Rio Tinto Group plans to invest US$2.5 billion in a new lithium mine in Argentina – a win for President Javier Milei’s RIGI investment incentive scheme.

NYC airports prep for a record 150 million passengers in 2025.

*** Culture ***

Paris Opera shows canceled as ballet dancers walk out over pay: The Times reports performers with France’s national ballet troupe have forced five shows to close after arriving 2.5 hours late to get dressed in protest that has already cost €1.2m.

A Complete Unknown review: Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan is an electric revelation Peter Bradshaw

Military history buffs are waging war against AI data centers threatening battlefields and other historical sites.

Detroit is the 10th US metropolis spotlighted with a tourist guidebook from Michelin.

How to live a psychologically rich life: A psychologically rich life, filled with a wide variety of interesting and perspective-changing experiences, is distinct from a happy or meaningful one. Is there a recipe to get all three? Rotman Insights

The obsession with the 'hot assassin' reveals a disturbing truth about celebrity culture: The folk hero status sometimes accorded to those charged with serious crimes means the victims and the violence can be forgotten. Vanessa Friedman

The anti-woke king of Hollywood lets loose: Taylor Sheridan’s shows explain how and why we got Trump again. Rick Marin

U2’s Larry Mullen Jr: My dyscalculia makes ‘counting like climbing Everest’: The Times reports the drummer tells Times Radio his disability, which causes him to struggle with numeracy, is the reason he looks ‘pained’ when he performs.

*** Sport ***

‘Beat Duke’: Bill Belichick takes a stunning leap to North Carolina college football: The six-time Super Bowl winner makes a detour for Saturdays, in-state rivalries and fantasies of the 12-team playoff. Jason Gay

Why is Bill Belichick going back to college? Because he’s a teacher first. If Belichick somehow doesn’t succeed at North Carolina, it won’t be because he’s ill-suited for the job of college football coach. Sally Jenkins

The NFL will play its first regular season game in Berlin next season as part of the league's continued international expansion.

The NFL has a new most valuable team—and it’s worth $8.3 billion: WSJ reports the sale of a minority stake in the Philadelphia Eagles values the club at a record amount for a U.S. sports franchise, underlining the soaring price tag to get into America’s most popular sport.

NBA Cup semifinalists: Bucks, Hawks, Rockets, and Thunder.

Whoopi Goldberg started the All Women’s Sports Network with George Chung, co-founder of international media holding company Jungo TV. AWSN is available in the US on the free streaming service Vizio WatchFree+.

Sha’Carri Richardson spikes off: A sprint to greatness on and off the track: How spiritual growth, a journey to self-love and a dip into her “soft life” era are fueling the superstar sprinter. Essence


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal