Canada-style Brexit, Catalan Votes, Generic 2018 Ballot, Didi Chuxing, Lady Gaga

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 21, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ Catalan votes today

✔️ EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal

✔️ Ds have massive lead over GOP on generic 2018 ballot

✔️ Didi Chuxing raises $4 billion in new funding

✔️ Nashville awarded MLS expansion club

GEOECONOMICS

Catalan votes today: Catalans are casting their ballots in a regional vote that could determine whether the threat of secession by the wealthy region continues to loom over Spain or if separatists’ push for unilateral independence has peaked.

EU prepares a Canada-style Brexit deal for UK: FT reports, bloc to make the limited-access trade offer if Britain fails to clarify demands before summer.

23 percent = The percentage of the total supply Bitcoins which is believed to be lost, locked behind forgotten passwords or hidden in misplaced drives. 

SELL, SEEL, SEEL: You know a peak mania has been reached when you overhear, as I did yesterday, a Capitol Hill police officer talking about buying Bitcoins.....

@CNBCTopStories: NYSE files to list bitcoin ETFs, bringing cryptocurrency a step closer to mainstream http://cnb.cx/2BIKhhv 

US creating 'sensational hype' over China's military modernization: Reuters reports, the United States has created "sensational hype" over China's military modernization, the defense ministry has said in reaction to a White House report branding China a competitor seeking to challenge U.S. power.

The island where Chinese mothers deliver American babies: WSJ reports, women looking to give birth to U.S. citizens have found a loophole in the Pacific: Saipan

Wait until Trump hears about this - oh boy.

China Mission ’92 – The US-China economic relationship has increased dramatically! Barbara Hackman Franklin, the 29th U.S. Secretary of Commerce, is currently President and CEO of Barbara Franklin Enterprises, writes, today, decades later, the US-China economic relationship is huge, enormously complex, multi-faceted, and interdependent — and there are disagreements, differences of approach, and tensions. The current administration is looking to “rebalance” the economic relationship. I believe a rebalance is in order, and sooner rather than later. My hope is that the Chinese side will make many of the structural changes for which the US side, especially the business community, has been advocating for years. Read the full post here: https://goo.gl/8z9wFc

Canadian TV providers receive payments to carry Russian ‘propaganda machine’: Globe and Mail reports, Kremlin’s state-run news channel, criticized by some for circulating conspiracy theories, is being included in many domestic television packages, raising concerns about the access foreign agents have when allegedly trying to ‘destabilize Western countries’

NEXT CHINA 

Make plans to attend the NEXT CHINA conference hosted by SupChina.  

The event will be held on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, at The Times Center in New York City. 

The conference will have five sessions covering Technology, Economy, Healthcare, Politics, and Philanthropy, followed by a live Sinica Podcast recording on “Cracking the China Conundrum."

RSVP for the NEXT China conference here:
https://goo.gl/5UZUhr

Use code HOLIDAY for a $300 ticket.

AMERICAN POLITICS

GOP tax vote seals victory for Trump: WSJ reports, Congress gave final approval Wednesday to a $1.5 trillion tax cut, delivering a major victory for President Donald Trump and GOP leaders after nearly a year in political control of the capital.

Bloomberg: Ryan pushes Trump to follow tax win with US welfare revamp

@Nate_Cohn: Live interview generic ballot polls in December CNN D+18 ... Quinnipiac D+15 ... Monmouth D+15 ... Marist D+13 ... POS (R) D+12 ... NBC/WSJ D+11

@thehill: NEW POLL: Dems have largest lead to date over GOP on generic 2018 ballot http://hill.cm/vjvl2QX

Wall Street Journal killed editorial on Trump’s mob ties https://goo.gl/mFgdxN

Should he decide to run for re-election, Trump will have a less than pleasant experience and won't find the campaign trail of 2016 in 2020.

I place Trump not running for re-election at 38%

Senator Franken to leave the US Senate on January 2.

Virginia house race is tied after court ruling: WSJ reports, It’s not over yet in the Virginia House of Delegates race that threatened to strip Republicans of their majority. A Wednesday decision by a three-judge panel to count a disputed ballot made the race for a House seat representing Newport News a tie. The ruling came a day after an elections panel had ruled for the Democratic challenger in a recount of the November vote. 

"House District 94 seat could be determined by drawing lots"

A reminder that every vote counts, but so does a solid election law team and the judicial system.

Election Betting Odds

Senate control in 2018: GOP - 54.8%

US President Election 2020: Trump - 27.8%, Harris - 11%, Pence - 6.8%, Warren - 6.1%

Trump out: Has full term - 50.5%, leaves in 2018 - 27.2%, leaves in 2019 - 18.4%

Odds Checker

US Presidential Election 2020 winner: Trump 5/2, Pence 11/1, Warren 14/1, Harris 14/1, Sanders 25/1

Paddy Power

DEM 2020 Nominee: Harris 4/1, Warren 6/1, Newsom 7/1, Biden 7/1, M. Obama 9/1, Steyer 10/1, Booker 10/1, Sanders 10/1

GOP 2020 Nominee: Trump 1/1, Pence 3/1, Ryan 7/2, Rubio 18/1, Cruz 33/1, Sasse 33/1, Haley 33/1, Romney 33/1, Cotton 33/1

ENTERPRISE

The slow death of the American mall: WSJ reports, the rise of online retail and changing consumer preferences have hammered US shopping malls since their heyday in the 1990s. Many of these former engines of commerce and centers of community life are now mere skeletons as they fight for their lives.

Didi Chuxing raises $4 billion in new funding placing the ride-sharing platform with a valuation of more than $50 billion.

@ZDNet: Blockchain shows promise for energy companies http://zd.net/2BJgPaS

Penske Media has acquired a controlling stake in Wenner Media, whose prime asset is Rolling Stone magazine.

TRENDS

The rise of the all-day menu: Look for more restaurants where mealtimes are mutable and noshing is the new dining with fewer power lunches and formal meals.

@wef: These are the 25 most high-tech cities in the world http://wef.ch/2AKubWq 

Fireside Conference: Canada’s best minds predict what technology and marketing trends will rule 2018 https://goo.gl/FQzhrB

CULTURE

Lady Gaga will reportedly set up a residency at the MGM Park Theater in Las Vegas.

The NYT year in pictures 2017 http://nyti.ms/2p05cKf

@TheScotsman: The best travel books of 2017 https://trib.al/O3BvXQx 

Mortality in the United States declines: CDC reports, In 2016, life expectancy at birth was 78.6 years for the total US population—a decrease of 0.1 year from 78.7 in 2015. For males, life expectancy changed from 76.3 in 2015 to 76.1 in 2016—a decrease of 0.2 year. For females, life expectancy remained the same at 81.1.

SPORT

Nashville awarded MLS expansion club.

And the nominees for president of US Soccer Federation are ...

Paul Caligiuri
Kathy Carter
Carlos Cordeiro
Steve Gans
Kyle Martino
Hope Solo
Michael Winograd
Eric Wynalda

One of the eight candidates will be chosen at the organization's annual meeting in February, in Orlando.

LAT: McKayla Maroney accuses USOC and USA Gymnastics of covering up sexual abuse with secret settlement