"Don't confuse being 'soft' with seeing the other guy's point of view."

Marc Ross Daily
December 5, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ National day of mourning

✔️ May suffers worst defeats by PM in Commons for 40 years

✔️ Trump calls himself ‘tariff man’

✔️ Maersk pledges zero carbon emissions by 2050

✔️ Kevin Hart to host the 2019 Oscars

GEOECONOMICS

Referendum two: The chatter of a second Brexit referendum is growing louder, although the probability of such an outcome remains relatively small. 

May suffers double defeat on Brexit deal: FT reports, the UK government will publish legal advice on Wednesday after MPs seize more control of EU exit.

Theresa May suffers worst defeats by PM in Commons for 40 years: The Times reports, MPs gave themselves the power to stop a no-deal Brexit yesterday as Theresa May suffered the worst series of Commons defeats on a single day for 40 years. Parliament passed two votes that will force the release of confidential legal advice given to the cabinet on the Brexit divorce. MPs then defeated the government to ensure that they have a say over what happens next if they reject Mrs. May’s agreement with Brussels.

JPMorgan now sees a 40 percent probability of Britain staying in the European Union - up from 20 percent previously.

Tuesday was the day the government lost control over Brexit and parliament claimed it.

France: The French parliament holds an emergency debate to discuss the Paris riots.

Yellow Vest demonstrations in France began as a protest against higher gasoline taxes, but have since grown as voters express dissatisfaction with the cost of living.

CNBC: China is reportedly 'puzzled and irritated' by Trump administration's words of triumph after trade truce 

"You don't do this with the Chinese. You don't triumphantly proclaim all their concessions in public. It's just madness"

China ‘confident’ of US trade deal ‘within 90 days’: FT reports, Beijing’s positive statement fails to halt sell-off on Asian and European bourses.

Reuters: China confident it can clinch US trade pact, Trump demands 'real deal'

China said Wednesday the trade meeting with the US was “very successful".

NYT: Trump calls himself ‘tariff man,’ and markets fall

Stocks sank as Trump threatened China with further tariffs, just days after the two countries agreed to a truce in their trade war.

Panama awarded a Chinese consortium a $1.4 billion contract to build a bridge over the Panama Canal, a day after a visit by President Xi Jinping.

Germany’s president visits China: Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s six-day trip comes as Beijing seeks stronger European trade ties. Steinmeier, who has served two stints as Germany’s foreign minister, is an advocate for more engagement with China.

German auto CEOs seek to dodge tariffs threat: German auto executives outlined plans for U.S. investments Tuesday during meetings with President Trump and top White House officials, a strategy aimed at easing U.S. threats of auto tariffs.

Next Greek PM? Poll favorite Kyriakos Mitsotakis seeks to boost the economy with reforms.

Bloomberg's biggest political risks to the world economy in 2019:

Trade wars
Italy
Populism rising 
Brexit
Democrat-controlled House
Elections in Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Nigeria
Oil
Asia’s waterways and freedom of navigation 
Black swan cyber or terrorist attack

"My biggest risk is less to do with a particular country, it’s a wild terrorist attack." -- Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House

AMERICAN POLITICS

National day of mourning: The state funeral for former President George H. W. Bush starts at 10:00 am ET with a departure ceremony from the Capitol Rotunda. The funeral service at the National Cathedral begins at 11:00 am ET.

Eulogies: Four men are expected to deliver eulogies. The late president’s son George W. Bush, also a former president; former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, who held the post while the elder Bush was president; former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY), who has known the Bush family since the 1960s; and historian Jon Meacham, who wrote a Bush biography.

Special guests: Trump and Melania, are expected to sit, along with the remaining former presidents and their families: George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and his wife — Trump’s 2016 Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. Also attending: Britain’s Prince Charles, the king and queen of Jordan, and Polish President Andrzej Duda.

NYT: Mourning not just George Bush’s death, but the world order he helped build

Mueller recommends no jail time for Mike Flynn: Flynn has provided “substantial assistance” to the special counsel investigation.

LAT: Flynn has given 'substantial assistance' to Mueller probe and should avoid jail, prosecutors say

‘Chaos breeds chaos’: Trump’s erratic and false claims roil the globe. Again. WP reports, global markets demand consistency and reliability, but this week’s statements from President Trump on trade with China underscore how he makes knee-jerk announcements that surprise investors, lawmakers, and even some advisers, who might find themselves reversing course depending on his whims.

"Then there is the way Trump talks about how the economy works — imprecise at best, ignorant at worst."

Made in the USA? Only 15% of Trump merch is made in the US.

A billion is like real money: Nebraska Farm Bureau says Trump's trade conflicts cost the state's farmers more than $1 billion

Deval Patrick, the former Democratic governor of Massachusetts, plans to announce he won’t run for president in 2020.

ENTERPRISE

Maersk pledges zero carbon emissions by 2050: FT reports, world’s largest container shipping group throws down a challenge to the industry

Pegatron shifts from China to Indonesia as trade war bites: Nikkei reports, leading iPhone assembler accelerates diversification strategy.

Volkswagen said the automaker was building an alliance with Ford Motor Co. and might use Ford's American plants to build cars.

Netflix will shell out $100 million next year to hold on to the right to stream Friends.

YouTube is rolling out its Instagram-like Stories feature to more creators.

TRENDS + BUZZ

Drones: About 110,000 commercial drones are operating in US airspace, and the number is expected to soar to about 450,000 in 2022.

Future-of-work strategist Heather E. McGowan predicts: “The old model of work was three life blocks: Get an education. Use that education for 40 years. And then retire." The next model will be “continuous lifelong learning’’ — because when the pace of change is accelerating, “the fastest-growing companies and most resilient workers will be those who learn faster than their competition.”
 
California’s fires released a year’s worth of emissions: The wildfires spewed out 68 million tons of carbon dioxide—almost as much as was produced by the state’s electricity usage in 2016.

CULTURE

Kevin Hart to host the 2019 Academy Awards.

SPORT

NHL is expanding to Seattle in 2021: Seattle was the first US city to win the Stanley Cup. The Seattle Metropolitans won it in 1917 before folding in 1924.

Urban Meyer, the 54-year-old coach, said he is retiring after seven years at Ohio State.

Good luck coach. This is a sound decision.

Buckeye nation:

Since 1960, Ohio State has had two losing seasons. 

Since 1993, Ohio State has 19 10-win seasons.

Ohio State’s last four full-time head coaches — Jim Tressel, John Cooper, Earle Bruce, and Woody Hayes — are all in the College Football Hall of Fame. 

#Relentless

Hut, hut, hike: Trump is going to the Army-Navy football game Saturday in Philadelphia

HBD: Anthony Martial, footballer, Manchester United and France, 23