Team Trump’s China gamble

The Trump administration's top economic and trade officials — including Steven Mnuchin, Larry Kudlow, Robert Lighthizer, and Peter Navarro — will head to China next week to try to prevent tit-for-tat tariffs from taking effect. But analysts doubt they can convince Xi Jinping to make any big concessions. 

Trump the deal marker seems confident.

‘I think we’ve got a very good chance of making a deal,’ Trump said earlier this week.

Trump went on to say, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is headed to China in "a few days" to resolve the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. "They trade with us [but] we can't trade with them," Trump declared. Both countries have proposed tariffs on the other, after the Trump administration's Section 301 investigation into China's business practices.

American business continues to be baffled by Trump's goals in China trade battle. No one seems to have the answer to one key question: What will it take for Trump to declare victory and withdraw his threat to impose tariffs on up to $150 billion worth of Chinese goods? 

"Based on my conversations, both with U.S. government officials and Chinese government officials, there's been a lack of specificity in what China could do that would satisfy the United States and avoid the imposition of tariffs and investment restrictions or anything else," Erin Ennis, vice president  the US-China Business Council, said during a panel discussion Wednesday hosted by the Global Business Dialogue, an industry-funded.

Have you ever made a trip to a foreign land with no agenda and clear outcomes?

Usually it is for fun and vacation.

When it is for business and deal making it is called a boondoggle.

Maybe Team Trump will get to see the Great Wall so it won't be a complete waste. 

Huawei pulls €500m bond offering and America’s Huawei probe - Why you should care

Huawei scrapped a bond sale after it emerged that America’s DOJ is investigating the Chinese telecoms giant over suspected violations of Iran-related sanctions. 

Bankers and fixed income investors close to the deal said demand for the bond was strong on Wednesday evening until the company called off the deal without explanation. Some investors speculated that Huawei stopped the deal because the company was aware of an investigation and wanted to protect buyers from any impact on the price of the security.

The €500m ($605m) offering would have been the firm’s first euro-denominated debt sale. The probe reportedly concerns Huawei’s shipments to Iran of products originating in America.

Why should you care?

America’s Huawei probe will lead to China to find its own American target.

Tim Culpan, the technology columnist for Bloomberg Gadfly, in his recent column writes that whether or not Huawei is guilty of busting American sanctions isn’t the point.

With various U.S. government agencies searching for excuses to clamp down on China’s top technology hardware company, all this attention could fall under the rubric of violating a ban on sales to Iran, espionage, or anything else the U.S. government doesn’t like.

He writes it is possible that Huawei may have committed infractions. Or not.

Regardless, what is essential is that American investigations into alleged violations are being escalated. From one rogue company – ZTE Corp. – to another. Two is a coincidence; three is a trend.  If another Chinese company is investigated, Beijing will have the cover it needs to get even tougher on the U.S. and its corporate giants.

There is a lot of smoke around Huawei for a company few Americans can properly pronounce. Start paying attention to this company because regulators in Beijing are and the impact will shape commerce on both sides of the Pacific.

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications and thought leader management at the intersection of politics, policy, and profits. Working with boardrooms and C-Suite executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.