NAFTA, Shinzo Abe, US-China, John Bolton, Rag & Bone

Marc Ross Daily
April 3, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

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TOP FIVE

✔️ Industry giants push back on looming China trade action

✔️ John Bolton, cyber warrior

✔️ More than 25 million people went on a cruise in 2017

✔️ Mueller probe into UAE influence broadens

✔️ Indie bookstores grow in the age of Amazon

ROSS RANT

Sure, China is a competitor, but it's also a marketplace

Much of the press coverage on the current state of US-China commercial relations is focused on competition, and not enough on the market for American goods and services.

China as a competitor has been dominating press headlines for years. Candidates seeking high office in the United States have been informing voters that China is a competitor and the only solution is tough action. Political columnists use China to score easy points and advance one-sided protectionist remedies.

Years of one-sided opinion is having a negative impact on US-China commercial relations and is fostering a tit-for-tat retaliatory tariff environment.

In the United States, negative views of China have increased by 26 percentage points between 2006 and 2016. And American negativity towards China has been higher than Chinese negativity toward the United States in every year since 2014.

A January 2017 Pew Research survey of Americans found that 65 percent of respondents said China is either an adversary (22 percent) or a serious problem (43 percent), while only about a third (31 percent) said China is not an issue.

And in a separate Spring 2016 survey by Pew Research, a majority (55 percent) of Americans held an unfavorable opinion of what more and more Americans see as their largest Asian rival.

This hostile environment is the public affairs reality that American business is facing right now.

Many now see China, one of America's most significant and most promising markets, as a loser for US business. Unfortunately, this belief is fertile ground for politicians supporting protectionist policies and trade halting tariffs. Actions that if successfully passed would force Beijing to respond with retaliatory trade tactics including increased limits stifling full access to the growing Chinese consumer marketplace for American goods and services.

It is time for those that care about a productive and engaged US-China commercial relationship to take these polls seriously and engage Americans in Main Street coffee shops and at picnic tables for backyard BBQs.

For far too long American business has overly relied on a model dependent on high-level government relationships and support from the White House and corresponding federal agencies to manage the US-China relationship.

This model to manage the US-China relationship is exhausted and broken.

US companies exported $135 billion in goods to China in 2017, and it is still the third-largest US goods export market behind Canada and Mexico, our neighbors and NAFTA partners.

Thirty states experienced at least triple-digit goods export growth to China since 2006, and four states saw growth of more than 500 percent over the same period: Alabama, Montana, North Dakota, and South Carolina. Every US state had triple-digit services export growth to China since 2006, 16 states had export growth of more than 400 percent.

At a grassroots level, it is critical to remind Americans US goods and services exported to China come from a wide range of industries. Goods such as transportation equipment, agriculture products, computers and electronics, and chemicals. These exports also sustain logistics jobs in America’s ports and warehouses throughout the country.  Also, US services exports come from the travel, education, and transportation sectors as well as professional business and financial services.

Leaders of American business needs to play a decisive role in reversing this trend and ensuring American goods and services reach the ever-expanding Chinese marketplace. Sitting on the sidelines will be too detrimental for America's economic security. 

GEOECONOMICS

Trump pushing for preliminary NAFTA deal by mid-April, sources say: Bloomberg reports, The White House wants leaders from Canada and Mexico to join in unveiling the broad outlines of an updated pact at the Summit of the Americas that begins April 13.  

Trump will welcome PM Shinzo Abe of Japan to Mar-a-Lago from April 17-18, 2018.

China to start paying for oil in yuan as early as this year: report: Asia Times reports, Beijing is forging ahead in its efforts to internationalize the yuan, with sources saying this week that China may begin paying for crude oil with the local unit as early as this year. 

Industry giants push back on looming China trade action: NYT reports, as the United States prepares stiff trade measures and China retaliates, stock markets have plummeted and some of America’s biggest companies have lodged objections. The idea of addressing China’s unfair trade practices is popular, but details of President Trump’s plan have set off fierce opposition.

Trump to unveil China tariff list this week, targeting tech goods: Reuters reports, the Trump administration this week plans to introduce a list of $50 billion to $60 billion worth of annual Chinese imports targeted for US tariffs as part of an effort to punish China over its technology transfer policies. Administration officials have said that the US Trade Representative's office is expected to publish the list, which is expected to target "largely high-technology" products, by Friday. 

The US wrote the rules for global trade. Now China is using them against Trump. WP reports, the Chinese government designed its first concrete response to President Trump’s recent wave of protectionist policies to inflict noticeable political and economic pain upon the United States while remaining within the bounds of global trade rules. China imposed tariffs on a relatively modest $3 billion in American imports. But by hitting numerous products, including fruit, wine, ginseng and pork, that affect congressional districts across the country, China demonstrated that it can exert pressure within the American system.

Anchorage Daily News: Here’s what the Trump-China trade negotiations could mean for Alaska’s gas pipeline http://bit.ly/2q3TTxw

"Working on the premises that US-China trade relations don't escalate into a tit-for-tat imposition of tariffs across a host of sectors, LNG presents a real opportunity for the U.S. and China to forge common ground (and economic benefit)," said Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia, managing director at Oxbow Advisory, where he works on business, trade and government policy analysis. 

AMERICAN POLITICS

John Bolton, cyber warrior: Politico reports, John Bolton has spent years imploring the US to go on the attack in cyberspace — a stance that some digital warfare experts caution could set up the nation for a conflict it would be better off avoiding. 

Corruption, not Russia, is Trump's greatest political liability: New York Magazine reports, instead of draining the swamp, the president is monetizing it.  What appears to be an embarrassment of riches for Democrats may in fact be a collection of distractions, and it's likely that several of Trump’s most outrageous characteristics will fail to move the needle in the states and districts where the needle needs moving. https://goo.gl/pwVvGb

WSJ: Mueller probe into UAE influence broadens

Beware of an ambitious state AG: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) said he is launching a probe into Facebook Inc.'s use of personal data and is asking the company to disclose every time-shared user information with a political campaign or political action committee.

ENTERPRISE

LAT: Apple will dump Intel and use its own chips in Macs, sources say

Rag & Bone aims to revitalize the brand in Japan.

More than 25 million people went on a cruise in 2017.

Beauty mogul Bobbi Brown launches a lifestyle brand: NYT reports, Bobbi Brown spent more than 20 years building a major beauty brand and proving her doubters wrong, and now she's expanding with a new lifestyle venture dubbed Beauty Evolution. The brand will focus on wellness products including a vanilla collagen cocktail and a chocolate protein drink.

Indie bookstores grow in the age of Amazon: NPR reports, independent bookstores took hits as first large chains and then Amazon grabbed market share, but many indies learned to adapt and their numbers have climbed about 40% since 2009, Harvard Business School professor Ryan Raffaelli said. "Real estate developers are actually willing to give deals to some of the independent bookstores because the independent bookstore is a mark of authenticity," he said.

Reuters: Walmart opens first small high-tech supermarket in China

CBS plans to make an all-stock offer for Viacom.

Hostility from Trump, criticisms from Capitol Hill threaten to weaken the tech industry: WP reports, Monday was just the latest bad day for Silicon Valley, which has seen its biggest brands politically battered over several months as the president has lashed out on social media and US and European regulators have scrutinized the industry.

TRENDS

6 billion: That’s Starbucks’ own estimate for how many cups it distributes worldwide, or around 1 percent of the 600 billion paper and plastic cups that Earth uses in a given year.

CULTURE

23 percent: Black Panther was responsible for a staggering 23 percent of all movie ticket sales in the first three months of the year, the second-highest percentage ever. Titanic” took up 25 percent of winter sales in 1998.

LAT: Hard Rock Hotel in Las Vegas will be reborn as Virgin Hotels property

SPORT

Baseball: FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros and Indians each a 14 percent chance of winning the World Series, with the Dodgers (12 percent) and Yankees (9 percent) also in the hunt.

When 26.2 miles just isn't enough – the phenomenal rise of the ultramarathon: They are an almost-impossible test of the human body and spirit, yet the number of ultramarathons has increased 1,000% over the last decade. Adharanand Finn of Guardian asks what’s behind this rapid increase – and whether racing 100 miles or more is actually good for you. http://bit.ly/2GtUZOr