Turkish Lira, Pirates, Scott Walker, Nikki Beach, Poker, EVs

Marc Ross Daily
August 13, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

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TOP FIVE

✔️ Turkish lira’s fall hammers emerging markets

✔️ Crises across the Caribbean are fueling a resurgence in pirates

✔️ Evidence emerges of China forcing Muslims into ‘reeducation’ camps

✔️ Scott Walker looking for his path in Trump’s Republican Party

✔️ Nikki Beach as a chill resort brand

ROSS RANT

Your company's strategy and stones

The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

The Stone Age ended because we found better tools, better methods, better systems, better technology.

Plan accordingly.

GEOECONOMICS

Turkish lira’s fall hammers emerging markets world-wide: WSJ reports, Turkey’s currency plunged again, rattling other vulnerable emerging markets, while the country’s central bank made policy moves that failed to assuage investors about the economy’s perilous financial condition. 

Amid escalating tensions with the US, the lira broke through 7 (to the dollar) on Sunday afternoon before recovering some ground.

Turkish Lira per US Dollar:

Five years ago: 1.92
Four years ago: 2.11
Three years ago: 2.76
Two years ago: 2.95
One year ago: 3.54
Six months ago: 3.81
Three months ago: 4.28
Now: 7.03

FT: Turkey promises plan to calm markets

Bloomberg: Turkey takes first steps to bolster banks amid Lira's decline

Turkey looks to ‘new alliances’ for way out of crisis: FT reports, China, Qatar or Russia lack financial firepower or will to bail out Ankara, say analysts.

WSJ: US takes trade fight to smaller nations

The Trump administration is reviewing tariff breaks that were granted to poorer countries to promote economic development.

Thailand, Indonesia, and India have been put on notice that they could lose some duty-free privileges.

Less than 1% of all US imports came in under this policy's favorable treatment in 2016: about $19 billion of a total $2.2 trillion in imports. 

Canada's unemployment rate is back to multi-year lows.

Mexican wage growth remains robust.

Brazil’s retail sales growth continues to slow.

WP: As Venezuela crumbles, an old menace reappears in the Caribbean: Pirates

"Political and economic crises across the Caribbean are fueling a resurgence in piracy, which translates to boarded ships, terrorized fishermen, and lawless coastlines."

France plans to introduce a penalty system next year that would increase the costs of packaging made of non-recycled plastic, part of a pledge to use only recycled plastic nationwide by 2025.

OTD: In 1961 construction of the Berlin Wall started.

Russia on an international offensive to sell its nuclear plants: Nikkei reports, Vladimir Putin's government vies with China to become a superpower in the field.

Trump’s tariffs prove tougher than China expected: FT reports, Beijing leaders weigh likely effects of retaliation on domestic economy.

Reuters: The Chinese street's view of the trade war

"The interviews showed there is no palpable sense of crisis or panic yet. There is division and confusion over how China should respond to Trump, with some arguing that Beijing should strike back at American interests but others saying they didn’t know what could be done."

Beijing readies new political document for China-Japan ties: Nikkei reports, 'Fifth Communique' marking four decades of peace in draft stage.

WP: New evidence emerges of China forcing Muslims into ‘reeducation’ camps

"First-of-its-kind courtroom testimony here has corroborated allegations that the Chinese government has built a network of internment camps in western China where Muslim minorities are held without charge for “reeducation.”

No one can 'obliterate' Taiwan's existence, president says on departure for US: Reuters reports, vowing that "no one can obliterate Taiwan's existence," President Tsai Ing-wen left on Sunday for the United States and two of Taipei's remaining diplomatic allies, amid pressure from China to try to stamp out references to the island internationally. 

Malaysia: Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad says his government will cancel major infrastructure projects backed by China.

Korea Penisula: North Korea and South Korea to hold a summit in Pyongyang in September.

New wave of sex-abuse scandals threatens to tarnish Francis’s papacy: WP reports, Roman Catholics have looked to Pope Francis as a figure who could modernize the church and help it regain its credibility after the abuse scandals of the past few decades, but his record has been mixed. Analysts say the Vatican has been unable to take the dramatic steps that can help an organization get out from under scandals — and avoid repeating them.

AMERICAN POLITICS

Giuliani says Trump lawyers are prepared to counter Mueller: WSJ reports, Trump’s lawyers believe they can weather a “negative” report from special counsel Robert Mueller and are prepared to rebut the conclusions, Rudy Giuliani, one of Mr. Trump’s attorneys, said in an interview.

Virginia Heffernan: A courtroom artist captures what cameras can't at the Manafort trial https://lat.ms/2ML24ZK

Robert J. Samuelson: Trump’s no-win trade war: When all is said and done, Trump’s trade war may be fated to fail. There are many reasons. One is that the target countries — prominently, China, Japan, and Germany — won’t accede to his demands. This is already happening. Another threat is a backlash among US firms, hurt by tariffs that raise their products’ prices. This, too, is happening. But even if all these possibilities were avoided, the larger threat to Trump’s trade agenda is the dollar’s role as the major world currency. It dictates trade policy in ways not widely understood and is the ultimate cause of chronic US trade deficits.

Paul Krugman: Supply chains and trade war (very wonkish)https://nyti.ms/2OVmOzw

"a trade war in a supply-chain world would cause a lot of disruption,because it would lead over time to a major restructuring of industry. This would create a lot of losers, as well as some winners, perhaps more than a trade war would have in the past."

Michael Schuman: A US-China divorce would be uglyhttps://bloom.bg/2MH3hkV

"There’s no need to ruin a prosperous partnership."

Trump backs boycott of Harley Davidson in steel tariff dispute: Reuters reports, Trump backed boycotting American motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson Inc on Sunday, the latest salvo in a dispute between the company and Trump over tariffs on steel.

SCOTUS: All signs point to Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's nominee to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court, getting the 51 votes he needs for confirmation this fall.

Election 2018: House Republicans hope to advance a "Tax Reform 2.0" plan before the November midterms.

Is the US leaning red or blue? It all depends on your maphttp://bit.ly/2KQfOAS

Once a rising star, Scott Walker is still looking for his path in Trump’s Republican Party: WP reports, the Republican governor of Wisconsin won praise for taking on labor unions, but now he is emphasizing different issues.

WP: A slimy environmental crisis roils Florida’s tight Senate race

LAT: Break in the weather helps California firefighters battle massive blazes across state 

ENTERPRISE

Google woos partners for potential China expansion: WSJ reports, while Google’s search engine remains blocked in China, the company is courting allies there by providing tools and support to a growing number of app developers, manufacturers, and advertisers in the region. 

In China, for China.

Alibaba and Tencent in battle for China’s food delivery crown: FT reports, apps backed by rivals offer subsidies while fears rise over strategy and environment.

Crypto company aims to buy its way onto wary Tokyo Stock Exchange: Nikkei reports, Noah Ark's push to use Beat as virtual coin springboard puts bourse in a bind

Nikkei: SoftBank's Son says WeWork is his 'next Alibaba'

Tesla's slow disclosure raises governance concerns: Reuters reports, Tesla's handling of Chief Executive Elon Musk's proposal to take the carmaker private and its failure to promptly file a formal disclosure has raised governance concerns and sparked questions about how companies use social media.

Nikki Beach wants to remake itself as a chill resort brand: Bloomberg reports, it plans to open 20 ultra-chill locations in the next five years in classic and emerging destinations alike—think Santorini, Greece, and Montenegro—throughout the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean.

TRENDS

FT's Business Book of the Year 2018 — the longlisthttps://on.ft.com/2MH5X2b

The share of British adults owning a:

Desktop PC

2008: 69%
2018: 28%

Smartphone

2008: 17%
2018: 78%

HT BBC

US EV sales: More than 152,000 plug-in electric vehicles have sold in the US so far this year, putting 2018 on track for record sales.

CULTURE

Loch Ness contains more fresh water than all the lakes of England and Wales combined.

HBD: John Slattery, actor, Mad Men (2007-15), 56

'The Meg': The Warner Bros. adaptation of Steve Alten's "Meg: A Novel of Deep Terror"  took $44.5 million in its first weekend in NA theaters.

Maria Konnikova shows her cards: The well-regarded science writer took up poker while researching a book. Now she’s on the professional circuit. https://nyti.ms/2KTqT4k

"Dr. Konnikova is an experimental psychologist trained at Columbia University. But her latest experiment is on herself. For a book she’s researching on luck and decision-making, Dr. Konnikova began studying poker."

Today: International Left-Handers' Day

SPORT

Golf: Brooks Koepka wins the PGA Championship.

Barcelona battled back to defeat Sevilla 2-1 and win the Spanish Supercup.

Bayern Munich cruised to a comfortable 5-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the German Supercup.

Rangers manager Steven Gerrard won his first match in the Scottish Premiership.