The likely voter sham
New York Times data journalist extraordinaire, Nate Cohn, used Twitter last week to announce the Times was “switching to likely voters.” That is, their polls would now reflect the opinions of voters likely to turnout in November. The Times is hardly alone, so it’s a propitious moment to trot out one of my favorite polling iconoclasms: focusing on likely voters can be a misleading sham.
Full post from Mark Mellman.