On October 10, University of Florida (UF) President and former US Senator Ben Sasse dropped a note in strong support of Israel outlining steps the university would take to protect UF Jewish students and free speech on campus.

Sasse wrote, "This is always true: (The United States) Constitution protects the rights of people to make abject idiots of themselves."

The US Constitution does protect free speech and fear from arrest, lawsuits, or other legal consequences.

But as Paddy Cosgrave, founder of the famous tech conference Web Summit, discovered, the free market can regulate free speech.

Cosgrave resigned his Web Summit leadership position after major tech companies, including Meta, Google, and Intel, pulled out of the event over his comments on Israel.

In an October 13 tweet, Cosgrave described Israel's assault on Gaza as a war crime.

Though Cosgrave later denounced Hamas' attack and posted a public apology for his statements on Web Summit's website, it was too late to appease the free market.

As we live in an ever-increasing hyper-geopolitical world, not only are employees demanding that companies take a side, but global executives are in a bind over unifying messaging.

Take McDonald's, one franchise in Israel offered free meals to members of the Israel Defense Forces, while McDonald's Malaysia made statements noting it is "100% Muslim-owned" and donated money for humanitarian aid in Gaza.

In recent years, as the job approval of democratic governments globally has cratered, staff and customers have pressured businesses to speak out about political issues — from trans issues and abortion rights to Black Lives Matter — to highlight their corporate values, according to the Financial Times.

But criticism of corporate responses to the Israel-Hamas conflict shows how fraught with risk reacting to geopolitical crises has become for business executives.

The Washington Post reports Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean for leadership studies at the Yale School of Management, has been tracking corporate responses to the Hamas attack on Israel.

Almost 150 corporations have spoken out, either to condemn Hamas's attacks and antisemitism or to express solidarity and support for Israel, according to his analysis, including big names such as Walmart, Pfizer, JPMorgan, Disney, Salesforce, and Starbucks.

My advice for global executives, thought leaders, and influential entrepreneurs is threefold.

One, fundamentally, you need to be more competent in geopolitics, history, and economics.

We live in a hyper-geopolitical world that shows no signs of slowing down.

Realize that we are in what CIA Director William Burns called a "plastic moment" unseen since the end of the Cold War.

A "plastic moment" is when the entire cross-section has reached its yield stress.

This moment is the maximum bending moment that the section can resist. When reached, a plastic hinge forms, and any load beyond this point will result in infinite plastic deformation.

Today, the world is far more crowded, complicated, contested, and connected.

Today, the world sees the West as no longer running geopolitics.

Today, the world is going through a "plastic moment."

This "plastic moment" will challenge the best of global leaders.

Two, realize you can say and do whatever you want if you are independently wealthy and free of securing revenue or status from multinational corporations.

But you must plan accordingly if you have business relationships with companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange or supporting the World Economic Forum. Multinational companies (MNCs) are in the business of revenue and not revolution. The favorite phrase of MNCs is "no comment."

Third, Caracal recommends using the TWIN Framework before you speak.

TWIN = Targets to Win, Influence, and Neutralize.

In a complex communications effort, you will likely have 5, 7, 9, 11, and 25 targets (audiences) that you need to win, influence, and neutralize.

This framework is classic stakeholder management, engagement, and situation awareness.

Of the 5, 7, 9, 11, and possibly 25 targets, identify them and place them into one of three columns - win, influence, or neutralize.

Pro-tip - mathematically, the win and influence audiences should be bigger.

Once you have sorted out the stakeholders and mapped where they land, this will give you a good sense of whether you should proceed freely or cautiously.

I believe that Cosgrave mapped nothing and hit send.

Whereas Sasee holds a history Ph.D. from Yale and spent eight years in the US Senate, he had the wherewithal to speak confidently, knowing how his words would land.

Global executives, thought leaders, and influential entrepreneurs need more book smarts, situation awareness, and the TWIN Framework to succeed in today's hyper-geopolitical world.

Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful communications requires intelligence, strategy, engagement, and education.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected business environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc