One of the tents of successful geopolitical business communications is intelligence.

Or, if you want a more specific definition, let's use the Bayes' rule.

Named after Thomas Bayes, the rule describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.

This means the best way to make a good prediction is to be accurately informed about what you're predicting.

As explained in the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, applying the Bayes rule means you have the intelligence to grasp the world in proper proportions.

The book explains: "When something surprises us, it ought to surprise us, and when it doesn't, it ought not to."

However, when language is added, this rule starts to break down.

What we talk about typically differs from what we experience.

We talk about what we think a listener will find most interesting, compelling, and entertaining.

We talk about rare things.

The book states: "There's a curious tension, then, between communicating with others and maintaining accurate priors about the world. When people talk about what interests them - and offer stories they think their listeners will find interesting - it skews the statistics of our experience."

This need to communicate on topics we hope the listener finds most interesting, compelling, and entertaining makes it challenging to maintain appropriate prior distributions.

This challenge has only increased with the rise of the printing press, cable news, and social media.

Simply put, media coverage of events, news, and innovations does not track their occurrence in the wild.

Barry Glassner, a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis and author of The Culture of Fear, notes that the murder rate in the United States has declined by over 20% since the 1990s, while the coverage of gun violence on American news has increased 600%.

So, if you need solid intelligence to execute world-class geopolitical business communications, you must follow the Bayes' rule and protect your priors.

Make a solid geopolitical prediction by protecting your priors.

Or secure an outside expert to identify what matters and what should be in a weekly zeitgeist memo.

If you need help identifying essential news or crafting a zeitgeist memo to protect your priors, Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful geopolitical business communications requires intelligence.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected geopolitical and Bayesian environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc