Caracal | Communications for Geopolitics

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Trump's tariff policies + the Global Great Lakes

As geopolitical and economic dynamics shift under Trump 2.0, business and civic leaders must recognize the potential negative and burdensome impacts on interconnected regional economies. The Global Great Lakes presents a compelling case study of these challenges.

When analyzing potential tariff impacts on this unique cross-border economic ecosystem, there are five critical issues to grasp:

1. Regional integration at risk: The Global Great Lakes is an integrated system where manufacturing, hospitality, technology, finance, and trade form a delicate balance across international boundaries. Once a strength, this interdependence becomes a vulnerability when trade barriers rise.

2. Competitive cost disruption: In manufacturing alone, Trump's tariffs will increase raw material costs throughout the supply chain, putting pressure on margins for businesses of all sizes and accelerating inflation within the region.

3. Tit-for-tat spiral: Trade partners rarely absorb tariffs passively as they cannot ignore their economic sovereignty. The likelihood of countermeasures creates a cascade effect that will amplify economic downsides beyond initial projections.

4. False protection paradox: While tariffs are good politics and a winning issue on the campaign trail, aiming to protect domestic industries and allow national governments to pick the winners and losers of an economy, tariffs are bad economics and create unintended consequences. The resulting friction in business operations and increased consumer costs will outweigh protective benefits and impact the long-term vitality of the Global Great Lakes.

5. Economic growth stifled: The cumulative effect of Trump's tariffs threatens to constrain growth, limit job creation, increase economic uncertainty, and reduce financial security for residents and businesses throughout the Global Great Lakes.

The region's business and civic leaders must confront Trump's tariffs head-on and convey to Washington that these policy shifts will create long-term challenges for the Global Great Lakes.

It is imperative to communicate and engage with political leaders across the aisle and let them know that Trump's economic policies and pro-tariff agenda will have significant negative impacts on the Global Great Lakes region.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc