10 global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Geopolitical Business Intelligence

1. Europe splits over how war in Ukraine should end, poll shows: The Times reports breaks between doves pushing for a quick diplomatic exit from war in Ukraine and hawks calling for Putin to be defeated threaten to tear the European Union apart this summer, a study finds. The polarisation is reflected in popular national opinion, according to new polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a Berlin-based think-tank, which finds Macron's outlook ascendant in Italy, Germany, and France.

+ "Most would concede territorial losses in return for an end to the conflict, new polling reveals."

2. Biden to meet with Saudi Arabia's crown prince in July: WSJ reports the president aims to reinvigorate relations with key Middle Eastern partners during a visit to the region next month that includes a stop in Saudi Arabia, administration officials said.

+ Biden will visit the country on 15-16 July and will meet King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

3. Scotland's leader starts a campaign for a new independence vote: Sturgeon now says she is confident that Scotland can navigate towards a legal independence vote, and the detail of how that could be done would be presented to the Scottish Parliament "very soon."

+ The Scottish government plans to hold a second independence referendum in October of next year, according to its constitution secretary

+ Scotland rejected independence in a 2014 referendum, with 55% of voters saying they wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom

4. Macron's prospects uncertain after tight parliamentary election - a majority, hung parliament, or cohabitation: French President Emmanuel Macron may find himself without a ruling majority during his second term and deprived of the ability to push through his economic reform agenda after Sunday's first round of parliamentary elections saw his ruling coalition tied with a new left-wing alliance.

+ "Marked by a new record of abstention, the first round is an undeniable setback for Emmanuel Macron, whose majority is, for the time being, slimmer than that of all of his predecessors," writes 'Le Monde' director Jérôme Fenoglio.

5. Jamaican me crazy: Queen to be removed as head of state in Jamaica. Jamaica's government has announced plans to make the country a republic in time for the 2025 general election. Obtaining republic status would remove Queen Elizabeth II as head of state.

6. Australia + NATO: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is considering whether to attend the summit in Madrid on June 29-30 as part of a show of support from Asia Pacific partners, including leaders from Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

7. Should Biden run in 2024? Democratic whispers of 'no' start to rise. NYT reports that in interviews, dozens of frustrated Democratic officials, members of Congress, and voters expressed doubts about the president's ability to rescue his reeling party and take the fight to Republicans.

+ Not good for Team Biden

+ Biden will need to decide by February 2023 if he will seek a second term

8. The US Army's new paratrooper unit will focus on polar warfare: The US Army is standing up a new airborne division for the first time in more than 50 years. The 11th Airborne Division, the "Arctic Angels," will reorganize Army troops based in Alaska into a full-fledged combat division capable of deploying throughout the arctic region—and beyond.

9. Venezuelan leader and Iranian president sign 20-year agreement: Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and Iran's hard-line president signed a 20-year cooperation agreement Saturday, a day after Maduro praised the Islamic Republic for sending badly needed fuel to his nation despite US sanctions.

10. Apple will stream every Major League Soccer match for 10 years starting in 2023: MLS becomes the most prominent American league to have an all-digital, global agreement.

+ Does this mean 20 more seasons of Ted Lasso?

+ Wonderful marketing insights on who watches soccer in America