Global Political Intelligence Daily
Demystifying global politics, power, and policies
September 21, 2021
AUKUS, Biden, COVID-19
TOP FIVE
1. What explains Xi’s pivot to the state?
2. How Johnson’s Global Britain went rogue
3. US spat with France shows challenge of keeping Allies unified
4. Is this the beginning of the end for Bolsonaro?
5. Scots don’t back Sturgeon’s push for 2023 independence vote
ASIA
Why AUKUS is welcome in the Indo-Pacific: America’s efforts to strengthen deterrence of China are gathering momentum.
Gideon Rachman
UNGA: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will attend in person.
COP26: Xi Jinping is being non-committal about attending.
Xi Jinping aims to rein in Chinese capitalism, hew to Mao’s socialist vision: Going beyond curbing tech giants, he wants the Communist Party to steer flows of money and set tighter limits on profit-making.
WSJ
What explains Xi’s pivot to the state? He’s wagering it will help him achieve his goal of a record third term as paramount leader.
Kevin Rudd
Evergrande is hostage to Beijing’s property pain threshold: China wants to signal it is serious about cooling the sector but not at the cost of an economic engine.
James Kynge
China defends tech crackdown in meeting with Wall Street chiefs
Bloomberg
The vanishing allure of doing business in China: Who will be next?
Economist
China throws a wrench into a transpacific trade pact: Its application to join the CPTPP may not prosper, but it creates mischief.
Economist
Analysis: China's CPTPP bid is curveball aimed at splitting US and Japan: Beijing bets some members will embrace entry by Asian heavyweight.
Nikkei
SCMP: Beijing’s bid to join CPTPP may fail yet also succeed, experts say
+ Differences with members of the 11-nation trade pact, notably Australia and Japan, may prevent China from winning the backing needed
+ CPTPP’s commitments would be difficult for China to meet – but applying may have diplomatic or economic benefits
Bloomberg: China targets 'effeminate' men in Xi’s mounting push for conformity
Reuters: North Korea warns US risks 'dangerous nuclear arms race' over Australia subs
WP: North Korea says Australia’s submarine deal could trigger ‘nuclear arms race’
South Korea's balancing act amid US-China Indo-Pacific rivalry: DW reports Washington's alliance building in the Indo-Pacific is increasing pressure on South Korea, which finds itself caught between an economic behemoth and a long-standing security relationship.
Japan takes step toward first female premier as two women run
Bloomberg
Japan PM hopeful Takaichi speaks with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen: Nikkei reports Abe protegee seeks to burnish conservative credentials ahead of LDP election.
Japan urges Europe to speak out against China’s military expansion: In the first piece in a new Guardian series on China and tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s defense minister says the international community must bolster deterrence efforts against Beijing’s military.
Guardian
SCMP: AUKUS fallout: For years, US told India it couldn’t share nuclear submarine technology. ‘And now this ...’
+ Deal between Australia, the US, and Britain to share nuclear-powered submarine technology has some in India asking why it hasn’t been granted similar access to US technology
+ But some point out that India, which leases nuclear subs from Russia, stands to benefit from Aukus as it appears aimed at countering China in the region
EUROPE
Why France is apoplectic with rage at Australia's betrayal: Act of duplicity shatters Paris' Anglo-American partnership in Asia.
Louis Raymond
EU-Australia trade deal runs aground over submarine furor: France says pursuing negotiations is now ‘unthinkable.’
Politico
UK-France defense summit canceled in AUKUS row: Paris furious at scrapping of Australian submarine contract and new three-way technology pact.
Guardian
French officials dismiss UK as bit player in submarine spat: ‘We know their constant opportunism,’ said French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Politico
Macron takes on US, a big gamble even for a bold risk-taker: For President Emmanuel Macron of France, a debacle over a lost submarine deal with Australia suggests that the NATO alliance is debilitated through lack of trust.
NYT
To counter China, the US, and EU need to get back on the same page — fast: If the two sides don’t resolve their disagreement over the proposed Digital Markets Act, the only winners will be China and Russia.
Evelyn N. Farkas
UNGA: Emmanuel Macron was slated to speak via pre-recorded video on Sept. 21, but he’s dropped out and Foreign Minister Le Drian will speak on Sept. 27.
How to strengthen the western alliance: Embracing France: Boris Johnson should propose to Joe Biden that the French be included in the new AUKUS defense pact.
The Times - Editorial
Making waves in the Pacific: How Boris Johnson’s Global Britain went rogue: Defense pact with Australia and the US increases the chance of confrontation with China and spurs nuclear proliferation.
Simon Tisdall
Biden has bigger priorities than UK trade deal, Johnson says
Bloomberg
Liz Truss should hug France and empower women: The new foreign secretary can reshape Britain’s role in the world but first needs to shake up her misfiring department.
William Hague
Poll: Scots don’t back Nicola Sturgeon’s push for 2023 independence vote: Polling conducted for Politico also found a narrow majority in favor of Scotland staying in the UK.
Politico
Scots agree that Westminster has final say on new independence vote
The Times
The next German chancellor must prioritize ties with Africa: As Angela Merkel leaves the stage, it seems the curtains are being drawn on an era when German political objectives had a strong emphasis on Africa. Mimi Mefo Takambou says ignoring Africa would be a strategic mistake.
DW
After Merkel: Angela Merkel’s departure will leave a big hole in Germany—and much for her successor to do, says Tom Nuttall.
Economist
The Merkel era in charts: What changed in Germany? Germans are richer, women have more jobs, but the country failed to prepare for a greener, digital future.
FT
NORTH AMERICA
UNGA: Today Biden delivers remarks before the 76th Session.
Axios: Biden to stress US does not seek new Cold War in UN speech
WP: Biden seeks a phone call with France’s Macron to calm the waters
Spat with France highlights Biden’s struggle to satisfy promises of a diplomatic restoration
WP
US spat with France shows challenge of keeping Allies unified: Diplomatic dust-up over security pact among the US, Australia, and the UK comes as Biden administration struggles to maintain unity among its closest friends.
WSJ
Biden deals Europe a tough lesson in realpolitik: Why protect France and Germany as they seek opportunity in China heedless of the danger?
Gerard Baker
Biden’s Australian submarine deal is a big win in the strategic competition with China
Max Boot
US to lift air travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreigners: Politico reports foreign nationals must show proof of vaccination and proof of a negative Covid-19 test taken three days prior to boarding an airplane.
US to relax COVID-19 travel restrictions as tensions mount with allies: WSJ reports new rules requiring foreign travelers to show proof of vaccination follows pressure on President Biden from Europe, major airlines to lift bans.
Bloomberg: COVID-19 toll in US surpasses 1918 pandemic deaths
CNN: Pence preps for potential 2024 presidential run amid rocky headlines about relationship with Trump
Elon Musk’s push to expand Tesla’s driver assistance to cities rankles a top safety authority: Tesla plans to expand access to the Full Self-Driving system and defends its tech; safety official says more work is needed.
WSJ
REST OF THE WORLD
Why World Bank is under fire over set of rankings
AP
AP: As leaders reconvene at UN, climate and COVID top the list
Things to watch at the UN General Assembly meeting this week
AP
AFP: Unvaccinated Bolsonaro eats pizza on New York sidewalk
Bolsonaro worked to shake Brazil’s faith in vaccines. But even his supporters are racing to get their shots.
WP
Is this the beginning of the end for Jair Bolsonaro? The Brazilian president wanted a popular uprising against the supreme court, but the underwhelming response was telling.
Andre Pagliarini
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal
