Xi Jinping

Rees-Mogg, Xi Jinping, Beverly Hills, WeWork, David Beckham

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Rees-Mogg, Xi Jinping, Beverly Hills, WeWork,  David Beckham

Caracal Global Daily
March 26, 2019
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ Rees-Mogg signals readiness to back May’s Brexit deal

✔️ Italy’s hug makes China feel warm inside

✔️ How eating habits changed at George Mason University when delivery robots came to the campus

✔️ Release of Mueller report sets off political tussle

✔️ Apple looks to TV as part of its own digital ecosystem

ROSS RANT

Time and money

“I can’t afford it.”

“I don’t have the time.”

…almost always means, “this is not a priority.”

When we care, it’s amazing how much we can get done. One way to choose to care is to be clear about your priorities, which means being clear in your language.

And so we can say to ourselves, “I’d love to do that, but it’s not a priority.”

Remarkable work is usually accomplished by people who have non-typical priorities.

-- Seth Godin
 

GLOBALIZATION

UK Parliament votes to take control of Brexit from May: WSJ reports, Britain’s Parliament moved to pry control of the Brexit process away from Prime Minister Theresa May, forcing votes on alternatives to her unpopular plan to extract the UK from the European Union. 

Rees-Mogg signals readiness to back May’s Brexit deal: FT reports, leading Eurosceptic issues warning after MPs vote to take control of EU withdrawal process.

Robert Shrimsley: Brexit paralysis pulls Tories towards an early election: Forcing the parties to clarify their positions would ideally create a majority.

France: President Macron, Jean-Claude Juncker, Xi Jinping, and Angela Merkel meet in Paris to discuss global governance.

“We would like to make progress renovating multilateralism. We have divergences, obviously in the history of humanity power does not go without rivalry, none of us are naive,” Macron said after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. “But we respect China and are determined to have dialogue and cooperation.”

Chinese investments in Europe: German EU commissioner floats EU veto right: DW reports, alarm bells are ringing over Italy's involvement in Beijing's infrastructure project. EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger thinks an EU veto over future Chinese deals in Europe could protect the continent.

Virginia Postrel: Italy’s hug makes China feel warm inside: The first G-7 country to join Belt and Road embraces Beijing’s benign view of its place in the world.

European Parliament to vote on controversial copyright reform: DW reports, will the reform of European Union copyright law herald the downfall of the digital era as we know it, or is it merely a matter of compensating artists? The European Parliament is set to vote on the landmark dispute.

Australia weighs laws against ‘weaponised’ social media: FT reports, PM wants to make groups accountable for content after Facebook streaming of NZ attacks.

Mexico asks Pope Francis and Spanish king to apologize for colonialism: DW reports, Mexican President Manuel Lopez Obrador told the Spanish king and the Vatican that "wounds are still open" from the Spanish conquest of Mexico in 1521. The Spanish government was not amused.

DISRUPTION

Beverly Hills weighing ban on all tobacco sales: The famed city of Beverly Hills is considering a ban on the sale of all tobacco products. The city’s health commission is meeting today to finalize its recommendation, which it will present to city officials in May. 

How eating habits changed at George Mason University when delivery robots came to the campus: WP reports, in the two months since the robots arrived, an extra 1,500 breakfast orders have been delivered autonomously, say the companies that run the service.

30 legendary startup pitch decks and what you can learn from them http://bit.ly/2SMNA2C

Kara Swisher: Owning a car will soon be as quaint as owning a horse: The shift away from private vehicles will happen faster than we think.

Brain ‘creates cells until well into old age’: The Times reports, The human brain produces new cells well into its twilight years, according to a study. In research that may offer a new path towards understanding forms of dementia, scientists have found that the hippocampus region of the brain, used for memory and mood, generates fresh cells even in its tenth decade.

POLITICS

Release of Mueller report sets off political tussle: WSJ reports, Trump offered praise for Robert Mueller as his 2020 campaign ramped up efforts to use the special counsel’s findings as a political weapon, while Democrats set a deadline for delivery of the full Mueller report to Congress.

Republicans and Democrats angle to take the offensive after Mueller report: LAT reports, in the wake of the special counsel's report, both parties are calling for further investigations. Democrats want to examine obstruction. Republicans want to investigate the investigators.

An unnamed adviser to the President says the White House will renew its attacks on the media this week: The alleged strategy to "slam and shame the media" follows Friday's news that the so-called “Mueller Report” had been delivered -- an announcement that has prompted broadcast news to revamp schedules on the fly all weekend and into this week.

According to the Tyndall Report, the three main broadcast networks made the Russia collusion investigation the second-most-covered news event of 2018, trailing only the Kavanaugh hearings, another scandal.

Trump and Republicans seek to turn the tables in post-Mueller Washington: NYT reports, Trump denounced adversaries, calling them “treasonous” people who are guilty of “evil” deeds and saying they should be investigated themselves.

Jonathan Bernstein: Even in victory, Trump shows his weakness: Predictably, the president is overselling his supposed exoneration – and demonstrating why he’s unfit for office.

The US Gulf coast has become a net exporter of crude oil.

Digital hype aside, report says political campaigns are mostly analog affairs: NYT reports, a new report finds that, on average, campaigns in the 2018 midterm election cycle spent no more than 5 percent of their overall media budgets on digital ads on platforms like Facebook and Google.

Television ads and direct-mail campaigns remained the biggest expenses for campaigns, accounting for about half of all media spending, the group said.

Job approval of Congress: Congress' 26% job approval rating is the highest it has been in over two years.

"The Democrats won the 2018 midterms by focusing on the issues, not collusion. For most voters, politics is about their lives, not a self-righteous TV show." -- David Brooks

Election 2020: Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) announces he won't seek re-election.

Democratic candidates, pressured by party base, split on how liberal to be: WSJ reports, presidential aspirants test waters on health care, environmental policy; ‘bring on the tension.’

COMMERCE

McDonald’s to buy AI company Dynamic Yield: FT reports, the acquisition will help burger group customize its menu displays based on differing variables.

New space race on the horizon: It's going to take some deep pockets to challenge Richard Branson-backed OneWeb and Elon Musk's SpaceX. A group of private equity firms and pension funds have agreed to buy Inmarsat for $3.4B, launching the UK-based satellite operator's shares up 8.4% in London. The bidders - Apax Partners, Warburg Pincus, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board - were drawn to the "considerable potential for in-flight connectivity and the internet of things," they said in a statement.

WeWork said its loss last year doubled to nearly $2 billion.

Airbus secures $35 billion China deal in new blow to Boeing.

Nike’s Air Jordan brand is winning over European soccer fans: Bloomberg reports, the iconic basketball brand is storming onto Adidas’s home turf.

Hyundai and Kia have now recalled three million vehicles in North America since 2015.

Volvo chief warns against ‘irresponsible’ self-driving roll-out: FT reports, Hakan Samuelsson said it was “irresponsible” to put autonomous vehicles on the road if they were not sufficiently safe, because that would erode trust among the public and regulators. “We have a responsibility and everybody who’s in this business has that responsibility, because otherwise you’re going to kill a technology that might be the best lifesaver in the history of the car,” he said.

Faraday Future signs a strategic partnership with Chinese video game firm The9 to build a car in China: The jointly-owned venture will manufacture an EV based on the previously announced FF91.

Apple looks to TV as part of its own digital ecosystem: FT reports, the company is offering more services but questions over pricing remain.

JD.com and Alibaba export AI and robot logistics expertise: Nikkei reports, e-commerce giants expand delivery and warehouse solutions beyond China.

Alibaba acquires Israel-based Infinity Augmented Reality: Infinity offers AR tools for a range of Industries including gaming and healthcare.

AR > VR

SPORT

'It's a no-knickers feeling!' The healing power of wild swimming: Liz Richardson’s new show explores the transformative qualities of a freezing cold dip. http://bit.ly/2U6riJk

Brexit, a threat to Britain's sporting hegemony? AFP reports, can British sport, which has benefited massively from the opening of European borders, survive Brexit? Experts say the uncertainty created by Britain's probable EU exit could undermine the multi-billion-dollar Premier League and Formula One. Since its inception in 1992, the Premier League has become the richest football league in the world, a financial juggernaut fuelled by huge television contracts that has attracted a global audience.

Formula One divided as Brexit threat zooms into view: AFP reports, the new Formula One season is underway but the action on the track is being overshadowed by concerns over the implications of Brexit, with so many teams calling Britain home. Seven of the 10 F1 teams are based in Britain and there are nine European races this season, making the nation's impending departure from the European Union an unwanted headache even for such a globalized sport.

Sports Illustrated predicts Nats will miss playoffs, Bryce Harper’s Phillies will lose World Series: WP reports, the magazine picked Washington to win the National League pennant in four of the previous six years.

Why David Beckham is desperate to keep Inter Miami out of the suburbs: Guardian reports, the former England captain wants his team to play in downtown Miami, as soccer in North America markets itself as an urban game.

Tim Cook, Golden Boot, Xi Jinping, Election 2018

Marc Ross Weekly June.png

Tim Cook, Golden Boot, Xi Jinping, Election 2018

Marc Ross Weekly
June 24, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Weekly  = Commentary + Analysis at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

THREE QUESTIONS

1) Who will win the Golden Boot?

2) Michael Bloomberg plans to spend over $80 million on midterms and help Democratic House candidates, will it make a difference?

3) Gallup figures show most Americans work more than 40 hours a week (the average is 47) and 18 percent work more than 60 hours, how will this trend impact upcoming American elections?


GLOBALIZATION

Tim Cook - Tech's top US-China diplomat

As the US-China trade war smolders, Apple is concerned it will be caught in the middle between powerful interests in Washington and Beijing.

This public affairs environment has led Tim Cook to play diplomat and moved Apple to court China ever more closely. 

Cook's efforts to play diplomat haven't gone unnoticed. Even supply chain partner Foxconn now refers to the company as "Red Apple." 

The New York Times reports, Apple’s China business has grown far more significant than anyone on either side of the Pacific could have anticipated - even the optimists in Cupertino didn't expect this level of success. With 41 stores and hundreds of millions of iPhones sold in the country, there is arguably no American company in China as successful, as high-profile, and with as big a target on its back. 
 
This success in China is a core part of Tim Cook’s legacy. People close to him say his deep China supply chain experience was a massive help in managing China’s bureaucratic and nationalist government.

This business success and commitment to the Chinese marketplace has propelled Apple to be the top businesses diplomat and is the leading corporate to manage the US-China commercial relationship.

Apple realizes America's government wants big tech assembly plants for employment, and China's leaders want R&D investment in innovation. 

Last month Cook visited the Oval Office to warn President Trump that tough talk on China could threaten Apple’s position in the country. In March, at a major summit meeting in Beijing, he called for “calmer heads” to prevail between the world’s two most powerful nations.

The article reports, citing a source, Trump told Cook the US government would not impose tariffs on iPhones assembled in China.

Can "Red Apple" be the key to moving the US-China commercial relationship forward?

DISRUPTION

What global business needs to know about Xi

Earlier this year, Chinese Communist Party big boss Xi Jinping broke with a 25-year tradition by unveiling a new senior leadership group that includes no clear potential heirs, ensuring he will stay in office beyond 2022 and securing a lifetime appointment.

The consolidation of power in the hands of one man is a departure from the collective leadership that guided China through decades of historical and impressive economic growth and consumer stability. Today's top leadership reveal is a return to China's cultural code of imperial command.

What does it mean for global business? 

How will he use this power? 

Does the C-Suite commit or retreat?

As always, global business and the Davos crowd hopes a stronger Xi will now be able to push through bold economic and financial reforms.

I don't see it.

Xi is beholden to China and not the shareholders of the world's Western-based blue chip companies.

Xi's new leadership enhancement does little to change the ethos that to invest and manage a business in China you need fortitude, patience, and need to think in China for China. Capital controls and other investment barriers remain, while debt soars.  

If you sell a commodity and consumer packaged good and service, all is well, and there will be continued access and success in the Middle Kingdom.

If you are a bank, a tech company, an oil exploration concern, a biotech startup, a developer of new energy vehicles, you best buckle-up. 

Your business model is seen as a challenge to where Xi wants to take China, and the Great Wall just got higher.

@carlquintanilla: Percentage of revenue from China:

* Deere: 8%
* Caterpillar: 9%
* Boeing: 11%
* Nike: 12%
* 3M: 13%
* Tiffany: 13%
* Starbucks: 15%
* McDonalds: 15%

(via @TheDomino) @CNBC @SquawkStreet


AMERICAN POLITICS

US voters split on whether tariffs are good for America

When it comes to tariffs and trade - a few campaign rules apply:

1) Where you sit is where you stand

2) Good politics rarely makes good economics

3) China, Brazil, France, Germany, Canada et al. don't have a vote in US elections

4) House elections are more parochial and micro, while Senate elections are broad-minded and macro

Earlier this week, Morning Consult reported thirty-eight percent of registered voters surveyed in the poll said tariffs on Chinese imports would help the US economy, compared to 42 percent who think they’ll hurt the economy. 

In a change of Republican ideology, Republican voters now are more likely to say the tariffs are good for the economy, with 59 percent saying they think they help the United States compared to 36 percent of independents and 21 percent of Democrats.

Regardless of what happens in the coming weeks, trade and tariffs will be an issue on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

The battle between helping some against maximizing for all is the friction point.

Berlin and Beijing know this Amerian political struggle. No doubt teams of political scientists around the world are reading Politico, The Hill, and the Cook Report to determine where tit for tat tariffs will inflict the most pain at the ballot box for Republicans and Trump.

Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia, managing director at the consulting firm Oxbow Advisory and an adjunct professor at Middlebury College, said that the political risks for the administration are likely to be higher if US tariffs contribute to widespread inflation of consumer prices. “The strategy from the other side, whether it’s China or another country, to focus on congressional districts or agricultural products — I don’t know if that’s going to be that effective,” Spadavecchia said in an interview on Tuesday. “China is a big market, but it’s not our only market.”

Sure the tariffs provide a feel-good and sterling campaign trail talking point, but what is the end game?

It is to change business behavior and global commerce imbalances, or is politics for the sake of politics? 

“This is not about a policy,” said Mickey Kantor, the former commerce secretary and a chief trade negotiator for the Clinton administration, in a New York Times article. “This is not about asserting US leadership. It’s about the president having an impulse that if he does this, he will strengthen his base, send a signal to China, and be able to say  he’s been strong and tough.”

The expansion of tit for tat tariffs and reduced international commerce will stunt economic growth. Industries that require global supply chains and cross-border intercompany assembly will be profoundly affected, and pain could be substantial. 

Economists say the tariffs will drive up prices for American consumers purchasing products at retail stores as well as for businesses that depend on China for parts used to make other goods in the United States.

This increase in costs and losing markets is generating local headlines, but the feel-good, standing strong policy (personality) of Team Trump will keep trade and tariffs on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

Plan accordingly.

Turnover in a President's senior staff after one year:

Trump: 34%
Reagan: 17%
Clinton: 11%
Obama: 9%
Bush Snr: 7%
Bush Jnr: 6%

HT: Brookings

Xi Jinping, Cryptocurrencies, Viktor Orban, John Bolton, Patrick Reed

Marc Ross Daily.png

Xi Jinping, Cryptocurrencies, Viktor Orban, John Bolton, Patrick Reed

Marc Ross Daily
April 9, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Xi to outline economic reforms amid trade tension

✔️ Regulators worldwide are cracking down on cryptocurrencies

✔️ European right greets Viktor Orban's Hungary win

✔️ John Bolton comes prepared

✔️ Patrick Reed won the Masters

ROSS RANT

Make that walkabout a priority; your imagination will thank you

Made famous in the United States by famed Australian philosopher Crocodile Dundee, a walkabout is a journey through the wilderness of one's choosing to satisfy an itch, a desire to be elsewhere, the craving for the open road, or to engage the space over the horizon.

A walkabout can be a simple bike ride to your local art museum or possibly a more adventurous cross-continental journey to the top of Mount Kilimanjaro. A walkabout can be joining the local historical society or taking a gap year to teach economics in Canada.

Regardless of the distance traveled or the actions taken, your imagination will thank you for the change of scenery. The brain gets too comfortable in your everyday surroundings. Same morning routine. Same office commute. Same weekly meetings. Same quarterly reports. Same yearly industry conference. Sameness overload. 

This sameness can suppress your ability to generate new ideas.

Without generating new ideas, you become a manager and not a leader.

Changing up the pace, the people, the poetry can have profound results. From developing new skills and insights, but more importantly, your ability to generate new ideas.

You are a mashup of what you let into your life - friends, meals, music, books, art, lectures, movies, experiences, etc.

Every new idea is a mashup of one or more previous ideas. Without developing new ideas, the mashup process stalls.

So make time for that walkabout. Big or small, your imagination will thank you.

GEOECONOMICS

Xi Jinping to outline economic reforms amid trade tension: FT reports, Xi Jinping will on Tuesday give the most anticipated speech of his already historic presidency. During an address to a Chinese government-hosted forum on Hainan island, Mr Xi’s challenge will be to outline bold new economic reforms and measures to open markets without appearing to bend to US pressure on trade.

Analysts are hoping that Chinese President Xi Jinping will use his speech tomorrow at the Boao Forum for Asia to announce a serious market reform push. 

NYT: Amid fears of trade war, Trump predicts China will relent

China’s largest movie studio is vast, and so is its audience. But filmmakers have to toe the party line. LAT reports, Hengdian World Studios, built on farmland in the 1990s, claims to be the largest outdoor film studio in the world, and the source of an estimated 1,200 Chinese films and TV shows. It has 13 themed shooting areas scattered throughout a nondescript town in southeastern China's Zhejiang province.

Regulators worldwide are cracking down on cryptocurrencies. India’s next. WSJ reports, the country will prevent banks and financial institutions from engaging in digital currencies.

NAFTA: Leaders from the United States, Canada, and Mexico are not likely to announce a preliminary deal to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement when they gather in Peru for a summit later this week.

Lula da Silva surrendered to Brazilian police on Saturday to begin serving a 12-year jail sentence for corruption.

Brexit banking: Barclays is preparing to split its euro trading division and move part of the unit that trades eurozone government bonds and interest rate swaps away from its main trading floor in London.

May on tour: May will meet her Danish and Swedish counterparts on Monday in a tour of Scandinavian capitals to discuss Brexit and Russia.

DW: European right greets Viktor Orban's Hungary win

This will be Orban’s third consecutive term as PM and fourth overall. 

AMERICAN POLITICS

Plan accordingly: Both the House and Senate are in session this week.

The Hill: Day one in Trump's White House: John Bolton comes prepared

Farmers who propelled Trump to presidency fear becoming pawns in trade war: WP reports, Trump’s aggressive attacks on China over trade are putting Republicans in a difficult spot — torn between siding with Trump and acknowledging the economic peril to many of their constituents. The issue presents yet another challenge to the GOP in a tough midterm election year even in the rural areas across the Upper Midwest that swept Trump to victory — and where control of the Senate could be decided.

FT - Peter Navarro - OpEd: Donald Trump is standing up for American interests

LAT - Editorial: China sees right through Trump's posturing

FT - Editorial: History holds little hope of a winnable trade war


US-China on the Hill:

Wednesday @ 230pm ET: Senate Finance subcommittee hearing on tariffs with China.

Thursday @ 1000am ET: House Ways and Means Committee hearing on the effects of tariff increases.


Detroit: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan will be at Harvard University on Wednesday to talk about rebuilding Michigan’s biggest city.

WSJ: Mark Zuckerberg’s Washington mission: Stay cool in a very hot seat

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is set to meet US lawmakers today ahead of Tuesday and Wednesday's Congressional hearings.

Facebook on the Hill:

Tuesday @ 215pm ET: Facebook's Zuckerberg testifies at Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate Commerce Committee joint hearing.

Wednesday @ 1000am ET: Facebook's Zuckerberg testifies at House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing.


Zuckerberg has prepared for his testimony with a crash course in charm and humility - I need this course.

Facebook PR chief Elliot Schrage manages between 500 and 700 full-time policy and communications employees.

That is a lot of people to attend focus groups, read polling data, and say no comment.

Tim Cook of Apple took a shot at Facebook’s business model in an MSNBC/Recode interview: “We’re not going to traffic in your personal life. I think it’s an invasion of privacy.”

FL-SEN: Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) today is set to announce his candidacy for his party's nomination for US Senate.

The race to replace Paul Ryan is on: Politico reports, two top members of Paul Ryan's leadership team, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, have begun angling for his job in the event the speaker calls it quits after the election. They're closely monitoring the moves of the other and quietly courting Republicans who could help them clinch the top post, according to 20 GOP lawmakers and aides interviewed for this story.

NYT: Republicans seize on impeachment for edge in 2018 midterms

Good luck with that. This move will only propel Whole Foods Republicans to vote Dem in House races, or worse for the party, not voting at all, which will impact Senate races. 

ENTERPRISE

FT: HSBC brings in AI to help spot money laundering

"Bank is latest to harness tech as a cheaper and better way of tackling crime"

Alibaba and other investors have pushed the valuation of the Chinese AI start-up SenseTime to $3 billion.

Shipping emissions: The International Maritime Organisation will meet in London this week to figure out how to cut carbon emissions from the shipping industry, which is currently unregulated on that front.

Car dealerships face conundrum: Get big or get out: WSJ reports, in the age of Uber and Tesla, locally owned dealerships are becoming a thing of the past. https://on.wsj.com/2uVvaBr

Netflix reportedly put up a $300+ million bid for LA-based billboard company Regency Outdoor Advertising.

Netflix plans to boost marketing spending to $2 billion in 2018.

A billboard spot on Sunset Strip could cost $140,000 a month.


TRENDS

Theme park designers are preaching the importance of play over technology these days. https://lat.ms/2GPRcqU

Play > Technology

Brigadoon > Conference


Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future http://bit.ly/2uZmSZ5

How planned mergers like CVS-Aetna are reshaping US healthcare by muscling out doctors. https://nyti.ms/2IE2Zca

The future of what: Data! What is it good for? These days there’s nothing but data out there - social media statistics, Spotify artist insights, info about who your fans are, where they are, and when they listen to your music. But what do you do with all this data? And who is really benefiting from it? http://bit.ly/2GJhD5o

Barron's: AI: Coming to a portfolio near you: Fund shops and other financial firms are in a race to use artificial intelligence to improve their stock-picking, provide better guidance for customers, and save money in the process. What managing your money will look like in the not so distant future. http://bit.ly/2H9EcQ2

CULTURE

Gisele Bündchen is a force of nature https://on.wsj.com/2Ewoady

"Never do meetings unless someone is writing a check." -- Mark Cuban

Olivier awards: The musical Hamilton stormed the Olivier awards last night, taking home seven awards and dispelling any wonderings about whether a show about one of the least well-known founding fathers of the US would do well in the UK.

SOTD

Ten Fé - Single, No Return http://bit.ly/2qgE2Nf

SPORT

Patrick Reed won the Masters - few seem to care.

Bananas vs. sports drinks? Bananas win in study https://nyti.ms/2Ej2S35

Sad news from the Paris-Roubaix race: Belgian cyclist Michael Goolaerts, 23, has died after suffering a cardiac arrest during the event on Sunday.