Caracal Daily | August 5
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
NYT: For Israelis, jittery wait for retaliatory strikes stretches into a new week
FT: Western governments step up calls on citizens to leave Lebanon
Bloomberg: Israel braces for attack by Iran as US urges Gaza cease-fire
+ US-led regional coalition is being formed to stop missiles
+ Ministers get satellite phones, GPS scrambled, troops on alert
Fear and tension in the West Bank as residents anticipate retaliation against Israel: Le Monde reports following the targeted assassinations in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and in Beirut of Fouad Shukur, the right-hand man of the Hezbollah chief, demonstrations were organized in several West Bank towns on Saturday.
The Middle East braces for wider war as Iran weighs its response: After Israeli strikes, America is rushing troops to the region and airlines are steering clear. Economist
Anti-immigration protesters clash with UK police: WSJ reports the protests, ignited by false information that spread online, have swept across several major UK cities in some of the worst unrest to hit the nation in more than a decade.
Far-right UK protesters attack hotel housing asylum seekers in violent weekend: WP reports demonstrations in Rotherham, Liverpool, Hull and Bristol turned violent, prompting arrests. Misinformation about a deadly knife attack in Southport, England, spurred the protests.
Prime Minister condemns ‘far-right thuggery’ as riots grip UK: NYT reports protests escalated over the weekend in towns and cities in England and Northern Ireland, with dozens arrested and more demonstrations unfolding on Sunday.
Why are the far right rioting in England? A horrific knife attack, disinformation and extremists whipping up anger have all played a role in triggering a shocking outburst of violence. FT
How to respond to the riots on Britain’s streets: The violence demands robust policing, but it also requires cool heads. Economist
The army of digital sleeper agents who propelled Labour to power: The party spent £6m in online campaigns but really owes victory to supporters chipping in on Facebook and chatting on Instagram. The Times
How two Russian spies went deep undercover with their children: A couple planted as sleeper spies in Slovenia posed as an Argentine art dealer and an entrepreneur. They were caught in December 2022 and sent to Moscow in a sweeping prisoner exchange last week. NYT
Moscow’s spies were stealing US tech — until the FBI started a sabotage campaign: During the early days of Silicon Valley, a tech industry entrepreneur teamed up with the FBI to ship faulty devices to Moscow. Politico
WP: First F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, Zelensky confirms
Dozens killed in protests against Bangladesh’s prime minister: WSJ reports the opposition party said at least 85 people were killed in bouts of violence that erupted around the country.
Tuesday: US and Australian officials meet in Maryland: Top defense and diplomatic officials from the US and Australia will meet in Annapolis, Maryland, with the allies looking to further strengthen their ties in the face of a more assertive China.
Today: India’s President Droupadi Murmu begins a state visit to Fiji.
Paradise lost: Maldives falls into China’s grip after shunning India: Indian Ocean nation is sinking in a sea of debt after throwing in its lot with Beijing, heightening tensions with India, which fears it is losing its influence among neighbours. The Times
WP: Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It’s not going well.
Bloomberg: China rolls out action plan on boosting domestic consumption
+ State Council designates 20 steps to help flagging economy
+ Weak domestic spending has undermined a boom in exports
China becomes a punching bag for assertive US states: Restrictions on land purchases, TikTok, and investments seek to curb Chinese influence. Nikkei
With smugglers and front companies, China is skirting American AI bans: The US is trying to stop China from getting Nvidia microchips to advance its military. The private sector is fighting back. NYT
What the world gets wrong about China's overcapacity: Many policymakers confuse productive capacity with production output. Tristan Kenderdine
World’s biggest lithium producer urges state help to compete with China: US-based Albemarle cuts expansion plans amid struggles for processor of key mineral for electric cars. FT
Humiliated and furious, Maduro locks up 2,000: Venezuelans in fiercest crackdown of his rule: Venezuela risks becoming a police state as its socialist regime fights to remain in power after contested election. Bloomberg
The real winner of Venezuela’s election urges the regime to face facts: A peaceful transfer of power is still possible, says Edmundo González. Economist
Maduro lost election, tallies collected by Venezuela’s opposition show: WP reports challenger Edmundo González likely beat President Nicolás Maduro in the July 28 election by millions of votes, according to data pulled from more than 23,000 precinct-level tally sheets.
Pope calls for Venezuela to ‘seek the truth’ after disputed election: The Times reports the pontiff’s comments came after a week of protests and dozens of arrests in the country.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Tuesday: Biden's decision: Behind President Joe Biden’s fateful decision are decades of challenges and controversies, triumphs and tragedies. Frontline tells the inside story of Biden’s rise to the presidency, and the personal and political forces that shaped him and led to his dramatic decision to step aside. Watch the trailer here.
WSJ: In two weeks, Harris’s campaign has reset the electoral map
WP: Harris running-mate selection expected in next 48 hours: WP reports Vice President Harris interviewed at least three potential running mates on Sunday and will announce her vice-presidential pick ahead of a seven-state campaign tour that begins Tuesday.
AP: VP’s campaign launches ‘Republicans for Harris’ in push to win over GOP voters put off by Trump
How Harris can reset Democrats’ relations with business: The vice president should make it clear that experience in the private sector would be welcome in her administration. Matthew Yglesias
What might a Harris foreign policy look like? From personal experience she grasps how domestic political divisions can undermine American power abroad. Anne-Marie Slaughter
Trump’s team had a Harris strategy. Then he went off-script. WSJ reports Donald Trump ignited a firestorm by questioning Kamala Harris’s racial identity, an attack that risks harming his larger campaign strategy to define her.
Democratic party’s ‘Trump is weird’ strategy rattles Republicans: Kamala Harris’s campaign shifts attack lines in effort to win the White House. FT
What’s rattling Trump: The size of Harris’s crowds: NYT reports the numbers game is everything to Donald J. Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris’s first big rally appears to have gotten under his skin.
Who in Silicon Valley is supporting Trump -- and why? Backers concentrated in cryptocurrency community and defense tech sector. Nikkei
JD Vance’s knockoff theory of manufacturing: Modern appliances enrich Americans’ lives, and the jobs that produce them aren’t being lost to China. Allysia Finley
In ‘The Art of Power,’ Nancy Pelosi knocks Trump but pleads for decency: After nearly four decades in the US House of Representatives, Pelosi offers insights into the enduring effectiveness of her leadership strategy. WP
Senator calls grow for OpenAI to prove it’s not silencing staff: Following a Washington Post report, bipartisan pressure in Congress emerges for OpenAI to prove it is developing its AI safely. WP
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Helen Toner on the OpenAI coup: ‘It was about trust and accountability’: The former board member who (briefly) ousted Sam Altman talks about taking on one of tech’s most powerful CEOs. FT
OpenAI’s Sam Altman is becoming one of the most powerful people on Earth. We should be very afraid: Sam Altman’s ChatGPT promises to transform the global economy. But it also poses an enormous threat. Here, a scientist who appeared with Altman before the US Senate on AI safety flags up the danger in AI – and in Altman himself. Gary Marcus
Surging AI power demand boosts utility stocks: Investors have found a cheaper way to play the market’s hot new obsession. FT
Bloomberg: Big Tech’s AI promises become a ‘show me’ story for investors
+ Earnings growth has cooled dramatically for Mag 7 so far
+ Investors balked at heavy spending on AI without results
Bloomberg: Big Tech fails to convince Wall Street that AI is paying off
+ Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet earnings disappointed investors
+ Amazon projected profits that fell shy of market expectations
The Times: Warren Buffett sells another $50bn of Apple shares
Google hires top start-up team, fueling concerns over Big Tech’s power in AI: The search company’s deal with the start-up Character.ai is similar to recent moves by Microsoft and Amazon that have drawn antitrust scrutiny. WP
India's Ola Electric goes public: Nikkei reports Indian electric scooter maker Ola's shares are set to start trading in its public debut after an initial public offering seeking to raise 61.45 billion rupees ($734 million).
Lamborghini’s winning formula is defying an auto industry slump: The Italian supercar maker reports record midyear results while it slow-walks full EV plans. Bloomberg
Disney bets on Deadpool, Wolverine, and dirty jokes to save Marvel: After a string of disappointing releases, the Disney studio is counting on the pair’s R-rated antics to provide the antidote for superhero fatigue. Bloomberg
The best country for remote workers is Spain, new report says: Nine out of the top 10 digital nomad programs are located in Europe, says a new report. Bloomberg
*** Culture ***
Wait, is PowerPoint cool now? No longer the sole domain of Bob from accounting, the presentation software is being repurposed for parties, pickup lines and the persuading of parents. WP
*** Sport ***
Why Olympic sharpshooters insist on looking like cyborgs: The gold medal for badass Olympics gear goes to shooting glasses—cyborgian specs that looked like they could've been plucked straight off Deadshot's face. Wired
WSJ: Noah Lyles wins the 100 meters in dramatic photo finish
The Times: Noah Lyles snatches gold by 0.005sec in one of greatest 100m finals in history
WP: After 24 Grand Slams, Novak Djokovic calls Olympic gold medal ‘the biggest’
Olympic triathlete in hospital with E coli amid Seine sewage problems: The Times reports organisers forced to cancel familiarisation events before mixed triathlon on Monday, in which Great Britain’s medallists Alex Yee and Beth Potter compete.
Paris Olympics: Emmanuel Macron congratulates athletes and hopes for a 'legacy of pride': On Friday, the President came to attend the Olympic events, as French athletes racked up medals. He aimed to get a sense of the country's enthusiasm, as it appears united and reconciled. Le Monde
The fake Al Michaels is surprisingly good in Olympics highlights: Finally, a use for artificial intelligence that doesn’t stink. WP
The Atheltic: Chicago White Sox reach new level of futility, extend losing streak to 20 games
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 2
Caracal Daily | August 2
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
EU's AI Act: Balancing innovation + rights
The European Union's landmark AI Act has officially come into force, marking a significant step in balancing innovation with protecting European citizens' rights.
This pioneering legislation, the first globally, sets out comprehensive rules for AI systems, particularly powerful ones like OpenAI's ChatGPT.
The AI Act aims to govern how companies develop, use, and apply AI. The urgency for these regulations grew with the rapid rise of generative AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Midjourney, which can produce human-like text and images from simple prompts.
The EU AI Act aims to provide clear guidelines for businesses and innovators while ensuring robust safeguards for individuals.
For the full post and actionable insights - click here.
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Bomb smuggled into Tehran guesthouse months ago killed Hamas leader: An explosive device hidden in a heavily guarded complex where Ismail Haniyeh was known to stay in Iran was what killed him, according to an NYT investigation.
+ “The bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse… The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran.”
Israel’s spies take their revenge: After the humiliation of October 7, intelligence services are hitting back where their enemies feel safest. FT
AP: Ukraine receives first F-16 fighter jets to bolster defenses against Russia, officials tell
US Aid is flowing to Ukraine again. Can it turn the tide of the war? Ukraine’s morale is improving on two fronts — at least for now. Politico
Russia released Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan in a major multi-country prisoner swap.
+ President Biden finalized the prisoner swap 1 hour before he dropped out of the presidential race
+ This was the largest prisoner exchange since the depths of the Cold War
WP: Biden: Prisoner swap ‘a feat of diplomacy
Inside the secret negotiations to free Evan Gershkovich: The effort to bring home The Wall Street Journal reporter and others unfolded on three continents, involving spy agencies, billionaires, political power players, and his fiercest advocate—his mother. WSJ
In world first, EU's sweeping AI law enters into force: The European Union's landmark law on artificial intelligence came into force on Thursday, which Brussels vows will drive innovation while protecting citizens' rights. AFP
+ "With our artificial intelligence act, we create new guardrails not only to protect people and their interests, but also to give business and innovators clear rules and certainty," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
The EU’s AI Act is now in force TC
700 companies keen to join Pact to prepare for AI law: Some 700 companies have shown interest in joining the AI Pact – which are preparatory commitments to help businesses get ready for the incoming AI Act – a spokesperson for the European Commission told Euronews. With the Pact, the Commission aims to let businesses anticipate the AI Act with voluntary commitments and share ideas through workshops organized by the EU executive’s AI Office.
Spain’s Valencia region, one of Europe’s most popular beach destinations, is cracking down on short-term vacation rentals as officials nationwide grapple with growing anger over mass tourism.
UAE blocked meetings with leading AI firm amid China fears, House committee says: The dispute marks growing concern from lawmakers’ over the Middle East and its potential role as a conduit for China. Politico
Microsoft scales back AI partnership with Emirati firm amid concerns over China ties: Politico reports the US tech giant intends to restructure a sensitive part of its partnership with UAE-based G42, following concerns on the Hill about Chinese IP theft.
Chinese companies are winning the global south: Their expansion abroad holds important lessons for Western incumbents. Economist
Does China prefer Harris or Trump? Why Chinese strategists see little difference between the two. Wang Jisi, Hu Ran + Zhao Jianwei
Suspected Chinese hackers hit Taiwanese research center: Bloomberg reports passwords among data stolen from government-affiliated institute.
A Canadian warship passed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday in what Ottawa called a commitment to an open Indo-Pacific – and in what China called an undermining of peace.
India and Vietnam to enhance defense cooperation: Nikkei reports Pham Minh Chinh becomes first Vietnamese prime minister to visit India in a decade.
Bloomberg: Kim Jong Un wades into North Korean floods in hands-on propaganda drive
+ State media finding new ways to show Kim taking control
+ Damage could be worse than reported as cadres get blamed
France's North African dilemma: By adopting Rabat's position on the Western Sahara, Paris has made a major diplomatic shift, marking the failure of its reconciliation policy with Algiers. Le Monde
In Mali, Ukraine's shadow behind rebels at war with Wagner's Russian mercenaries: Le Monde reports, according to corroborating sources, the Ukrainian authorities are collaborating with the pro-independence fighters operating in the north of the country, providing them with strategic information and training them in the use of drones.
Mali rebels claim to have killed at least 130 soldiers, Russians in July clashes: AFP reports Mali's Tuareg rebels announced on Thursday that they had killed at least 131 Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner mercenaries during intense clashes in late July. Despite the heavy losses, Russia reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the Malian junta, emphasizing ongoing military and socioeconomic cooperation.
Exxon almost walked away from its $1 trillion oil discovery: A few geoscientists pushed a reluctant energy giant to take a chance on Guyana. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: US patience ‘running out’ on Venezuela vote as sanctions weighed
+ US government recognizes Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo González as the presidential election winner.
Bloomberg: Maduro’s crackdown thrusts old ally Lula into global hotseat
+ Biden, Venezuela opposition seek Lula’s support after election
+ Brazil leader has not recognized result or backed fraud claims
Argentina will use AI to ‘predict future crimes’ but experts worry for citizens’ rights: Guardian reports President Javier Milei creates security unit as some say certain groups may be overly scrutinized by the technology.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
95: The number of days until the 2024 election.
The fight of Trump’s political life: Kamala Harris has the wind at her back. Her strengths became clearer in the past two weeks. Peggy Noonan
+ @Scaramucci: Don’t be surprised if Donald Trump drops out of the race.
GOP pollster shows tight race: A new round of surveys from Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies:
MI: Harris 45%, Trump 45%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 45%
WI: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
AZ: Trump 48%, Harris 43%
NV: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Economist: The Kamala Harris effect on the polls has been dramatic
Harris ditches Biden’s message: The Democratic Party didn’t just change their nominee, they have changed their message in the final hundred days before the election,” Axios reports. President Biden wanted to make his campaign about ‘democracy’ and Jan. 6, but Vice President Kamala Harris wants it to be about ‘freedom’ and the ‘future.'
CNBC: Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro cancels Hamptons fundraiser, days before expected Harris VP reveal
+ BREAKING: @NBCNews is reporting that Pete Buttigieg met with Kamala Harris' vetting team and is on the final VP shortlist. Let's go.
Democratic convention will host hundreds of online influencers: WP reports welcoming stars of TikTok, YouTube and other platforms to the party’s convention in Chicago could add to a recent surge in online support for Kamala Harris.
AP: Obama and Bush join effort to mark America’s 250th anniversary in a time of political polarization
The House and Senate have begun their summer break and aren’t scheduled to return to Washington until Sept. 9.
Senators propose “Digital replication right” for likeness, extending 70 years after death: ARS Tech reports th law would hold US individuals and firms liable for ripping off a person's digital likeness.
How AI chatbots could improve civic engagement in the 2024 election: Election officials have the authority and responsibility to ensure voters have access to the best possible tools for making informed decisions. So why isn’t AI part of the equation? FC
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency named Lisa Einstein its first-ever chief artificial intelligence officer.
DC welcomes ex-OpenAI board member after Sam Altman drama: Helen Toner is building a reputation in the nation’s capital as a trusted expert on artificial intelligence. Bloomberg
OpenAI says ‘dedicated’ to safety in letter to US lawmakers: OpenAI, responding to questions from US lawmakers, said it’s dedicated to making sure its powerful AI tools don’t cause harm, and that employees have ways to raise concerns about safety practices.“Our mission is to ensure artificial intelligence benefits all of humanity, and we are dedicated to implementing rigorous safety protocols at every stage of our process,” Chief Strategy Officer Jason Kwon said Wednesday in a letter to the lawmakers. Bloomberg
OpenAI pledges to give US AI Safety Institute early access to its next model TC
A Wharton professor is now the go-to reviewer for AI products: Ethan Mollick conducts “weird experimentation” with chatbots to help people navigate a crowded market of AI products. Bloomberg
Politico: Crypto interests drop $13M on lobbying in first half of 2024
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
NASA is beginning its next simulated Mars mission.
NASA says it is “evaluating all options” for the safe return of Starliner crew: ARS Tech reports that SpaceX is actively working on a plan to fly Starliner's crew home.
Inside Volkswagen’s $130 billion EV battle Fortune
Inside America’s small, perfectly formed ‘tourist cabins’: Two entrepreneurs hope to kick-start a revival of the wooden lodges that played a key role in the invention of the great American road trip. FT
Agriculture tech company Agrovision has raised $100 million for its farms growing blueberries, raspberries, blackberries and more— seizing on a broader trend of growth in US berry consumption. The funding round, led by Aliment Capital, values Los Angeles-based Agrovision at more than $1 billion. The company sells fruit under its Fruitist and Big Skye labels, which are available at some branches of retailers including Costco, Trader Joe’s and Sprouts.
Why Americans are snubbing McDonald’s and Starbucks CNN
It’s no surprise McDonald’s is struggling Alexander Larman
Columbia professor says McDonald’s can blame its sales woes on an election-stoked vibecession Fortune
CNBC: Taco Bell to roll out AI drive-thru ordering in hundreds of locations by end of year
+ Yum Brands said hundreds of Taco Bell locations in the US will use artificial intelligence in drive-thru lanes by the end of 2024.
AI startup Suno says music industry suit aims to stifle competition: In a new court filing, company said it trained software on tens of millions recordings. Bloomberg
Fortune: Only an AI breakthrough can help humans live longer, argues drug developer: ‘We need a ChatGPT moment in longevity’
BI: Amazon has discussed a 'DoctorAI' tool to automate routine healthcare tasks
Reddit is acquiring Memorable AI, a startup that uses generative artificial intelligence to help marketers create better ads, in its first acquisition since going public in March.
Sources say TikTok was paying Microsoft nearly $20 million monthly to use OpenAI models in the cloud.
xAI approached startup Character AI about an acquisition.
Amazon is reportedly considering a takeover bid for Covariant, which makes AI software for robots.
Apple’s iPhone sales slip, but investors still expect AI rally: WSJ reports the iPhone maker is preparing to release “Apple Intelligence” in the fall, which investors hope will lead users to upgrade their phones.
Bloomberg: Apple predicts boost from AI features after uneven third quarter
+ Customers will have ‘compelling’ reason to upgrade, CEO says
+ Sluggish China revenue marred strong performance last quarter
FC: Move over Google and Microsoft: Amazon’s putting $16.4 billion to develop cloud and gen AI infrastructure
Meta, Microsoft, and Google blew blinding amounts of AI smoke during earnings—here’s what we actually learned Fortune
Media groups seek a new profit model with AI: Industry seeks to avoid painful experience with online gatekeepers such as Google and Facebook. Richard Waters
AI can learn a lot from its biological predecessors: Synthetic data risks ‘model collapse’ but may spur renewed interest in robotics. John Thornhill
Many people fear AI. They shouldn't. David Brooks
Intel shares fall 20% on plans to cut 15,000 jobs: FT reports US chipmaker says it will also reduce capital spending as its turnaround strategy hits another setback.
AI’s future in grave danger from Nvidia’s chokehold on chips, groups warn: ARS Tech report anti-monopoly groups want DOJ to probe Nvidia’s AI chip bundling, alleged price-fixing.
*** Culture ***
How I learnt to stop scrolling: It took a silent retreat to reboot my relationship with smartphones and social media. FT
Museums must defend their right to treasures: Pious arguments about modern collections ignore our curiosity about long-dead bodies and the darker side of history. Stephen Bush
Today: 77th Edinburgh Festival Fringe, the internationally acclaimed arts festival featuring hundreds of theatre, cabaret, comedy, and music shows, starts in the Scottish capital.
*** Sport ***
A global gold rush is changing sport: Fans may be cooling on the Olympics, but elsewhere technology is transforming how sport is watched. Economist
The reason you’re hooked on obscure sports at the Paris Olympics? Artificial intelligence Fortune
Top soccer leagues and broadcasters send letter to X demanding more action against illegal content: AP reports the letter, which was obtained by The Associated Press, had 14 signatories, including the Premier League, Spanish league, Bundesliga, Italian league, DAZN, Sky, beIN, DirecTV and Movistar Plus+. Soccer governing bodies UEFA and CONMEBOL also signed the letter.
Bordeaux relegated to French fourth-tier after bankruptcy: AFP reports former French Ligue 1 champions Bordeaux have been relegated a further division down to France's fourth-tier National 2 after going into receivership, the French football federation (FFF) announced Thursday.
Chariot racing in Rome, the forerunner of the sports industry: In the capital of the Roman Empire, 150,000 spectators would flock to the Circus Maximus to watch chariot drivers from various factions, the first genuine star athletes of the ancient world. Le Monde
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal