The Communicating Caracal Global | May 29, 2026

May 29, 2026 

Communications at the intersection of globalization, commerce, and governments. Five situations where the story being shaped matters more than the facts on the ground, plus a win and a loss of the week.

The lead: The White House is running two foreign policies and reconciling neither

The most important communications failure of the week is a government that cannot give the same answer to the same question twice.

Over five days, the administration signaled a deal to end the Iran war was close, then, at a Cabinet meeting, Trump said that rising economic costs would not push him into a deal. Brent crude whipsawed from $144 to below $100 as the message changed. The New York Times described the president's posture on Iran as driven by mood and moment rather than any discernible strategy, and a PBS Frontline documentary built the same case from inside the war cabinet.

For executives, the lesson is not about Iran. It is about what happens to any organization that lets its narrative move with the mood of the room. When markets cannot tell a pause from a peace, they price confusion, and confusion is expensive. The discipline that protects a company here is the one most leaders skip: deciding what you will say, to whom, and in what sequence, before the event forces you to improvise. Strategic incoherence is now a planning variable at the highest level of the US government. Assume your stakeholders have noticed, and build communications consistency that the headlines are not giving them.

The reputational risk in your vendor stack is now a security risk

Reuters reported that US military personnel deployed to war zones are being targeted using commercially available location data. Read that sentence as a business leader, not a Pentagon analyst.

The global surveillance economy is no longer an abstraction in an academic white paper. It is happening in real time on the battlefield and in combat zones, and the data your vendors broker, sell, or aggregate is accessible to people you would never choose as employees, business partners, or customers. The partnerships that looked like growth in 2024 can now be a liability in 2026. The communications problem arrives the moment a journalist or a regulator connects your brand to that data trail, because by then, you are explaining a decision instead of having shaped how it was understood.

The defensive response is already visible: own your stack rather than rent exposure through third parties.

News broke that Kirkland & Ellis has committed $500 million over the next three to four years to develop its own proprietary artificial intelligence platform. According to Bloomberg, the investment represents one of the most ambitious technological bets ever made by a law firm. It also signals Kirkland’s strategy to control its own tech to outperform competitors in the legal industry’s competitive race to harness AI.

The move is to audit the story your data relationships tell before someone else tells it for you. Name the partnerships that would be hard to defend on a front page. Decide now what you would say about each one. The companies that get caught flat are not the ones with the worst practices. They are the ones who never rehearsed the answer.

The gap between your written AI policy and your real one is the story

VP Vance told Air Force Academy graduates the military should never let AI make life-and-death decisions. The Pentagon is moving forward with AI in war regardless. That gap between the stated policy and the operational reality is the entire communications exposure, and every company has its own version.

You probably have a written AI policy. You also have an unwritten one that is already different, because the line between "AI assists" and "AI decides" gets crossed in workflow design, not in a policy memo. Amazon scrapped an internal AI leaderboard after a senior executive told staff to stop using AI just for the sake of using it. Starbucks began factoring AI use into tech workers' bonuses. Corporate America is rationing AI as the compute bill comes due. Each of those is a company discovering that its real policy and its stated one have drifted apart in public.

Close the gap before a reporter finds it. The most defensible position is one where the policy you publish and the practice you run describe the same company. If they do not, the discrepancy is your next crisis, and you will be explaining it on someone else's timeline.

Rome just entered the AI conversation, joining Brussels in oversight

Pope Leo XIV used his first major encyclical, Magnifica Humanitas, to place moral concern rather than profit or efficiency at the center of the AI debate, comparing the technology's risks to the Tower of Babel. Anthropic helped unveil it. The Vatican is now an active voice in AI governance, alongside an EU AI-envoy role that remains unfilled, with the GCHQ chief calling AI an unstoppable force being weaponized in the gray zone between peace and war.

For any multinational, the takeaway is that the regulatory and reputational framework around AI is no longer set solely in Brussels. The moral frame is now being written in Rome, the security frame in London, and the market frame in Silicon Valley, and they do not agree. A company that tuned its AI messaging to a single regulator is now under-built for the conversation that actually exists.

Embrace the mantra 'where you sit is where you stand.' It will help you see how technology policy actually gets formed — and it is not only by those who issue fines and write laws. The audience that shapes your license to operate on AI now includes a moral authority with a billion followers. Speak to all the stakeholders who will shape and guide AI policy; it is far broader than what your compliance team has modeled.

Dynamic pricing was an operations decision. It just became a communications liability.

The New York and New Jersey attorneys general subpoenaed FIFA over World Cup ticket pricing, investigating whether staggered releases and dynamic pricing misled buyers. Strip out the soccer and the lesson is universal: the pricing mechanism that quietly migrated from airlines to concerts to sports to restaurants has finally drawn legal exposure, and the exposure is as much reputational as legal.

The failure here was never the algorithm. It was the absence of a story to go with it. Dynamic pricing optimizes revenue while generating resentment, and the companies running it have mostly decided to let the price speak for itself. That is a message, and it is the one customers heard.

If your business uses dynamic pricing, you are one investigation away from having to explain it. Decide now whether you can. The operators who survive this will be the ones who built a defensible narrative around their pricing before a subpoena required one. Silence is a position here, and it is the costly one.

Communications Win of the Week: The audience that owns the distribution

CBS suspended its takedown notices on bootleg YouTube uploads of Stephen Colbert's old public-access show, Only in Monroe, after public outcry: small story, large lesson. The instinct of a rights holder is to enforce. The smarter read was that the audience now sets the terms of distribution, and a company that fights its own fans for control of content loses the room while winning the case. CBS reversed fast enough to turn an enforcement misstep into goodwill. The win was not the content. It was the speed of the climbdown.

Communications Loss of the Week: Ferrari, defining its own launch as desecration

Ferrari unveiled Luce, its first all-electric car, with a Jony Ive design and a €550,000 price tag. The vehicle may be brilliant, but the communications were a rout. The company's own former chairman publicly called it the destruction of a legend and told Ferrari to take the prancing horse off it. When the most quotable critic of your launch is your predecessor, you have lost control of the story before the first car ships. The lesson is old and expensive: a launch is a narrative, and if you do not author it, the loudest insider will. Ferrari let the purists frame Luce as a betrayal, and now every review is litigating heritage rather than engineering.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

— Marc

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal Global 

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.

The Communicating Caracal Global is a weekly memo applying the Caracal Global lens to the week's events, resolved on the communications stakes that decide how a company is understood by the audiences that matter most.

Caracal Global is a communications firm for global business, working at the intersection of geopolitics, commerce, and governments, specializing in Globalization + American Politics. Intelligence + Strategy + Communications.

Sixty-five

That's the number of active kinetic conflicts happening globally this year. The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) recorded 65 active state-based conflicts. Wars in which at least one belligerent is a state and that produce at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year, the highest level since its records began in 1946. The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) spots an equally violent trend. "Despite a sharp decrease in battle-related deaths from 2022 to 2023," it observed, "the past four years have been the most violent period since the end of the Cold War."

We are now operating in the most violent international environment of the post-WWII era, and this isn't a spike. It's a structural shift. PRIO has tracked the curve for decades, and the message is consistent. We have left the relative calm of the post-Cold War period and entered something else.

Most global executives I talk to expect the world to revert to "normal" by year-end.

It won't.

The Iran war appears to be headed toward a 60-day ceasefire extension, and the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen. Treat that as upside on fuel costs and shipping insurance. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026, to 102.2 mb/d. Per the IEA, the oil market remains in deficit until the final quarter of the year. With global oil inventories already being drawn at a record pace, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period.

Three observations that civic and business leaders should be wrestling with.

1. Smaller countries can now defend themselves against bigger ones in ways they couldn't five years ago. Drones, AI targeting, cheap precision weapons, and commercial location data turned against deployed troops. The Economist spells it out: smart tech is making war a dumber choice, but it is also making it cheaper to start. Ross Douthat's NYT column connects the same theme. The mighty US military is built for the wrong century. Every defense ministry on the planet is now writing the same memo about whether half its existing force structure will be obsolete within a decade.

2. The Trump administration's foreign policy, per the new PBS Frontline documentary and the NYT's reporting, is operating on mood rather than strategy. Robert Kagan's warning in Le Monde this week is worth reading twice. The war in Iran risks permanently weakening the US position. The implicit guarantee that American power underwrites your supply chain, your dollar exposure, your dispute resolution, and your customer access in 70 countries is less reliable than it was 12 months ago. Allies are already pricing it in. Norway's nuclear coalition with France. Canada's Swedish surveillance buy. Britain and Poland's missile pact. None of those decisions would have made sense five years ago, let alone five months ago.

3. AI is now a battlefield asset, with all the governance debate that implies. JD Vance told Air Force Academy graduates this week that the military should never allow AI to make life-or-death decisions. The Pentagon is moving forward with AI in war anyway. The corporate parallel writes itself. Every company is deciding which calls to delegate to AI, and the line will land somewhere other than where the policy says it should.

Here is where this stops being geopolitics and becomes a communications problem.

Sixty-five conflicts is not background noise. It is an operating environment, and your stakeholders already know it.

Tariff volatility, supply chains rerouting around chokepoints, questions about NATO credibility, accelerating competition from China, AI corporate spending, tightening export controls, energy disruption, and interest rate uncertainty. These are not separate stories. They are the forces reshaping how your company is understood by regulators, investors, customers, and the press.

The companies that survive the next regulatory cycle are the ones that can give the same answer to the same question to a regulator, a journalist, and a customer.

That is not a legal problem or a strategy problem. It is a communications problem.

Communications shape how a decision is understood before it is made, while it is being made, and after the fact, and not explained after the damage is done.

The peace dividend is gone. A generation of executives built their careers running global businesses in a world that no longer exists. The companies that outperform the next cycle have stopped treating geopolitics as background noise and started treating it as a line item.

The ones who win the communications around those decisions are the ones who planned the communications first.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.

The discipline behind spreading an idea

Why do thought leadership?

Because thought leadership is the spreading of an idea, and the spreading of an idea is never an accident.
Most leaders treat communications as something that happens after the real work is done. The strategy gets set in one room, and then someone is asked to "get the word out." That sequence is backward, and it is the single most common reason corporate communications fail.

The spreading of an idea has a process. I call it E-STOCK.

Event: What is the context? Every idea lands inside a moment: markets, politics, the news cycle, your own org chart, a book launch. Identify an action forcing event before you open your mouth.

Strategy: What are you trying to achieve? Not "awareness." A decision. A specific target. Something that will help you maintain or expand. A measurable shift in how your company is understood. Name the outcome before you choose the tactics.

Tactics: What tools will you use? Op-eds, podcasts, briefings, a keynote, a quiet lunch. Tactics are the easy part, which is exactly why they are the wrong place to start.

Organization: What systems do you need? Ideas die in the gap between intention and execution. You need the people, the calendar, the material, the resources, and the approvals that turn a good thought into a published one.

Consistency: What is your cadence? One brilliant post is a flare. A reliable rhythm is a signal. Audiences trust pattern over brilliance. Create an editorial calendar and execute consistently. Like daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly.

Know-how: What can you share that no one else can? This is the whole game. Your proprietary insight, your scar tissue, your view from inside the room. Commodity takes don't spread; actionable insights do.

Here is where most organizations go wrong.

They jump straight to tactics.

"Let's do a podcast." "We need to be on LinkedIn." "Get me a TED talk." They pick the tool before deciding what they are trying to achieve, and then wonder why the audience never showed up.

That is not a thought leadership problem. It is a sequencing problem.

Done right, thought leadership does more than build a profile.

It creates new opportunities to expand commerce and shape culture. It opens doors that cold outreach cannot. It lets a company shape how it is understood before a crisis forces the conversation. In an environment defined by permanent disruption, the organizations that can deliberately spread an idea hold an advantage that those still "getting the word out" will never match.

So the real question is not whether you should be a thought leader. The question is the one you have been avoiding.

What idea are you holding back?

Start with E-STOCK. Build from there.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.