Caracal Daily | August 12
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
As Ukrainian forces grab Russian territory, the Kremlin maintains it’s no big deal: WSJ reports the Ukrainian thrust into Russia’s Kursk region raises questions about Moscow’s military capabilities and where Vladimir Putin’s red lines really lie.
Kursk governor calls for quicker evacuation: DW reports the acting governor of Russia's Kursk oblast called for civilians to be moved from unsafe areas more quickly amid a Ukrainian incursion. Meanwhile, a man and his child were killed in a strike near Kyiv.
Fire breaks out at cooling tower of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Le Monde reports that Ukraine's interior minister said it was "intensively monitoring" the situation from meteorological stations near the plant, which is Europe's largest nuclear power station.
NATO’s weak spot against Russia facing a choice to take up arms: The undefended Aland Islands in the Baltic Sea have long been a gap in Europe’s shield. Remilitarisation could turn them into one of the West’s key defenses. The Times
Vladimir Putin spends big—and sends Russia’s economy soaring: How long can the party last? Economist
Macron looks to use Olympic 'political truce' to hone his plan for a new prime minister: Emmanuel Macron is spending some time at the presidential holiday residence in southern France, still looking for a prime minister who could create consensus on both the left and right. Le Monde
Left-wing candidate Lucie Castets' strange campaign for France's premiership: Over the two weeks since her name burst onto the French political scene, the Nouveau Front Populaire's candidate for prime minister has been thrust into the limelight and is trying to forge a reputation for herself. Le Monde
UN credibility depends on adjusting veto rights to match the shift in global power: Imagine the poetic justice if the UK were to cede its UNSC seat in favor of India.Kishore Mahbubani
The Philippines accused China of “dangerous and provocative actions” by two of its aircraft, which it said had dropped flares in the path of a Philippine plane patrolling the South China Sea.
China courts developing nations in its push to build a new world order WP
Reuters: China's drivers fret as robotaxis pick up pace - and passengers
Multinationals sound alarm over weak demand in China: The World’s second-biggest economy is slowing, appetite for foreign brands has weakened, and local competition is intense. FT
China’s nightmare: A second trade war with Trump: China’s struggling economy is overly reliant on exports, making it more vulnerable to the punishing tariffs the Republican presidential nominee is proposing. WSJ
China court rulings on AI accelerate race to set standards: Judges establish precedents on voice and images as Beijing embraces the tech. Nikkei
US lawmakers move to restrict trade provision favored by China’s e-commerce giants: A bipartisan group wants to make it harder for companies such as Shein and Temu to ship their products stateside. WSJ
Nikkei: 'Ban Korea' movement drives Thai tourists to China, Japan
+ Some Thais are angry that South Korean immigration agents seem to be indiscriminately taking away their much-anticipated vacations
+ South Korean travel industry says boycott has been unnoticed
Nippon Steel pivots away from China to zero in on US, India: US Steel acquisition and Indian blast furnaces critical to expansion. Nikkei
Thursday: Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are due to speak at a ceremony to mark the 79th anniversary of Japan’s Second World War surrender at Nippon Budokan.
Sunday: Singapore's Wong delivers key speech
+ Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers his first National Day Rally address, an event seen as the city-state's most important political speech of the year, spelling out key economic and social policies.
Today: Jokowi cabinet meets in the new capital
+ Indonesian President Joko Widodo is slated to hold his first cabinet meeting in Nusantara, the country's planned new capital city being built on Borneo island.
Thursday: Taliban takeover anniversary
+ Thursday marks the third anniversary of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, amid increasing restrictions against women and a worsening economic crisis.
Thursday: Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of his country’s independence from British rule in 1947.
Kenya: What next for Gen Z's digital revolution? In Kenya, youth-led protests and political debates have surged on social media, raising fears of surveillance and fake news. Online platforms are now at the forefront of activism and dissent. DW
Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu: ‘America was colonised too and look at where they are’: The proponent of ‘Africapitalism’ on the legacy of imperialism — and why he’s getting into the business of oil. FT
In secret talks, US offers amnesty to Maduro for ceding power: WSJ reports the long-shot American efforts are fueled by an opposition attempt to document the Venezuelan leader’s overwhelming defeat at the polls.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump, by the numbers Maureen Dowd
WP: Trump isn’t campaigning as hard as he used to
WP: Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris
WP: Trump campaign says it is victim of foreign hack after leak of a report on Vance
The hacking of presidential campaigns begins, with the usual fog of motives: NYT reports Donald J. Trump says his campaign was hacked by the Iranians, but obtained publicly available data. Microsoft said Iranian hackers sent a spear phishing email to a “high-ranking official” on a presidential campaign.
WP: Trump falsely accuses Harris campaign of fabricated AI crowd photos
Today: Former president Donald Trump expected to be interviewed by Elon Musk.
WP: Elon Musk’s X feed becomes megaphone for his far-right politics
Elon Musk’s embrace of Trump is turning off these Tesla lovers: WP reports drivers who have bought or considered buying Tesla vehicles are now eyeing EVs from competitors, partially because of Musk’s polarizing persona, provocative online posts, and recent endorsement of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Why I no longer crave a Tesla: Elon Musk’s antics are turning off the most obvious customers for his cars. Pilita Clark
FT: Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump on the US economy
+ FT Michigan Ross poll shows Democratic candidate leading on the issue for first time in nearly a year
WSJ: Harris calls for no taxes on tips, borrowing a Trump idea
Democrats push Sam Altman on OpenAI’s safety record: Senators demanded answers about whistleblowers and conflicts of interest. The Verge
Bari Weiss knows exactly what she’s doing: The founder of The Free Press has built a new media empire by persuading audiences that she is a teller of dangerous truths. NYT
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Google and Meta struck secret ads deal to target teenagers: FT reports the campaign on YouTube to boost Instagram’s appeal to young people skirted search group’s rules for marketing to under-18s.
Why Nvidia is still the undisputed king of AI Christopher Mims
The new AI deal: Buy everything but the company: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have made deals with AI start-ups for their technology and top employees, but have shied from owning the firms. Here’s why. NYT
Where have OpenAI’s founders gone? Only two of 11 co-founders of ChatGPT maker are still active at the $86bn company after a series of exits this year. FT
How Microsoft spread its bets beyond OpenAI: The tech giant has worked to execute an AI strategy independent of Sam Altman’s start-up following a leadership crisis last year. FT
How Elon Musk is using his empire to kickstart xAI: WSJ reports the billionaire is mobilizing resources around artificial intelligence. Some Tesla shareholders are suing to make him stop
Bilingual dictation assistant Silvia understands ‘Spanglish’ and other language mixtures: TC reports natural language AI assistants tend to be excellent English speakers, and passable in other tongues — but if you are one of the millions who fluidly switch between two languages on the fly, they’re stumped. A new AI helper called Silvia, however, understands “Spanglish” just fine, with more language combos to come.
Can you be emotionally reliant on an AI voice? OpenAI says yes. NYT reports a report acknowledged that users of GPT-4o forms unusual bonds with the software’s voice response feature, which the company says warrants further study.
Tuesday: Made by Google event, launching Google’s latest devices, including the Pixel smartphone.
+ A teaser video released in June said “AI . . . meet IX”
WSJ: Former YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki dies at age 56
Engineered dust could help make Mars habitable: Restoring water on Mars may be easier than you think. Economist
Honda, Nissan to recycle plastic from scrapped cars: Nikkei reports that proposed environmental rules in Europe drive push to create supply chains.
Disney unveils billions of dollars in theme park expansions: WSJ reports the Experiences division reveals specific plans for new rides and attractions that die-hard fans have been waiting on.
Bloomberg: Disney plots villains-themed land, new ships in big resorts push
+ No region is left out of the $60 billion investment spurt
+ Details are unveiled as slowdown hits Disney’s famed parks
Why is a New York hospital setting up its own movie studio? Northwell Health has launched a production company to develop documentaries, films, and TV shows. WSJ
*** Culture ***
Why schools are racing to ban student phones: As the new school year starts, a wave of new laws that aim to curb distracted learning is taking effect in Indiana, Louisiana and other states. NYT
*** Sport ***
The Olympics needed a reset. Merci to Paris for providing it. These Summer Games were exactly what the whole enterprise needed and came in a style no other city could provide. Barry Svrluga
What can Olympians teach executives? Citius, altius, spurious. Economist
He’s the biggest fanboy at the Olympics. He’s also the president of France. WSJ reports the Paris Games have been one long checklist of sweaty hugs and ecstatic fist pumps for Emmanuel Macron. But once the Olympic honeymoon ends, he’s waking up to a nightmare.
Olympics committee boss Bach to step down, Coe considers bid: DW reports Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee, has said he will not be seeking a third term. Among the candidates to replace him is World Athletics chief Sebastian Coe.
Bloomberg: Los Angeles sees remote work helping ‘no car’ 2028 Olympic Games
+ California city is preparing to host its third summer Games
+ Paris mayor to hand off Olympic flag to LA’s Bass on Sunday
The rise of women’s sports unlocks unexpected sponsorships: Unknown startups, female-focused companies, and other brands with no prior dealings with sports are being named official sponsors of women’s leagues and teams. WSJ
WP: MLB will play a game inside a NASCAR speedway. How will that work?
Friday: English Premier League football season opens with Manchester United vs Fulham.
The fake Indian cricket league created for real online betting: A shopkeeper in rural Gujarat persuaded some farmers to play in a tournament with manipulated outcomes. The scam traced all the way to Russia. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 8
Caracal Daily | August 8
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Summer COVID surge hits at least 84 countries and continues to climb: WP reports at least 40 Olympic athletes have tested positive for the coronavirus and other respiratory illnesses, suggesting the virus may not exhibit the same seasonal patterns as the common cold and flu.
Reuters: Israeli army issues new evacuation orders in north Gaza after rocket fire
Israeli aircraft buzz Beirut as the drums of war bang loud: Economist reports as Iran and Hizbullah threaten retaliation for Israeli assassinations, Lebanon is the firing line.
WP: Washington and Arab states scramble to avert an all-out Middle East war
Arab and Western nations urge restraint as Israel-Iran tensions simmer: NYT reports trying to head off a Middle East war, several countries are pressing Iran to temper its retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.
How to end a spiraling Middle East crisis: A ceasefire deal in Gaza is the only way to put a stop to the region’s cycle of violence. FT - Editorial
Egypt told its national airlines to avoid flying over Iran in three-hour intervals on Wednesday and early on Thursday local time, apparently because of scheduled military exercises
US sends another carrier from Asia to Middle East, widening Pacific gap: Nikkei reports some call for stationing a flattop in the Mediterranean on a permanent basis.
Politico: Turkey joins South Africa’s genocide case at ICJ against Israel
Ukraine: The uncertainties of a war of attrition: Le Monde reports on Sunday, Kyiv confirmed the reception of the first F-16 fighter jets promised by its allies a year ago. But the arrival of these American-made aircraft likely won't be enough to upend the balance of power on the ground.
Ukraine struggles to implement its 'African Strategy': Le Monde reports after the revelation of its aid to independence fighters in Mali, who are fighting against the Malian army and its Russian ally Wagner, Kyiv is suffering a series of diplomatic setbacks in West Africa.
Reuters: Ukraine pierces Russian border, triggering fierce clashes
Ukraine presses on with surprise military incursion into Russia: Second day of hostilities in Kursk region is driving up death toll, according to Moscow. FT
The Times: Putin accuses Kyiv of ‘major provocation’ with cross-border attack
Politico: EU, UK cyber chiefs say there were hacking efforts aimed at recent elections
Taylor Swift concert terror attack plan foiled: Newsweek reports two people were arrested in Austria on Wednesday, foiling a potential terror attack that may have been targeted at a Taylor Swift concert.
Bloomberg: UK regulator tells online services to ‘act now’ to stop riots
Fears of fresh anti-immigrant violence put Britain on high alert: NYT reports thousands of extra police officers were mobilized across the country, but as of early evening there were no signs that large far-right crowds had gathered.
After a week of UK riots, thousands fill the streets to decry racism: WP reports for the most part, the counterdemonstrators appeared to outnumber the agitators. And, for one night at least, they helped stop the violence.
Catalan separatist to return to Spain, despite arrest threat: DW reports Carles Puigdemont, who fled the country after organizing an illegal independence referendum seven years ago, says he will return home on Thursday. Facing an arrest warrant, it is unclear how he intends to do it.
The Times: Meloni says China trip with her daughter sets good example
Chinese firms are growing rapidly in the global south: Western firms beware. Economist
Analysis: Xi Jinping's draft internet ID law sparks '1984' fears: Online criticism goes viral, then disappears on eve of Beidaihe meeting. Nikkei
Xu Zaozao, an unmarried Chinese woman, lost her final legal appeal to freeze her eggs.
Australia: Great Barrier Reef waters warmest in 400 years: DW reports record water temperatures have led to more and more mass bleaching events along the Great Barrier Reef. Experts warn the reef is running out of time.
AI is coming for India’s famous tech hub: The country’s outsourcing companies have added urgency to shift to higher-end services. WSJ
Newsweek: India and Pakistan brace for rising ISIS threat
Bangladesh: The fall of a dynasty: Le Monde reports the hasty departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has sealed the collapse of a family that has been linked to power since Bangladesh's independence in 1971.
Can hope beat hatred in Bangladesh? Domestic politics and great-power rivalries will make transitioning to democracy hard. Economist
Chile’s only steel mill shuts amid surge in Chinese imports: FT reports the South American country had slapped tariffs on its largest trading partner in order to save the plant run by CAP.
Miami Herald: US supports negotiations with Maduro but won’t call opposition winner president-elect
US nears milestone in race to prevent quantum hacking: Global authorities speed up focus on growing threat to traditional cryptography. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Harris was ‘last person in the room’ on Afghan exit, but her influence is unclear: WP reports the vice president’s role in the Afghanistan withdrawal suggests her limits in meaningfully altering President Biden’s course on historic choices.
Kamala Harris seeks centre-left sweet spot in US election battle: Democrat candidate has dropped leftwing policies from her failed 2020 presidential campaign. FT
Tim Walz looks the everyman part in flannel shirts and camo hats: The Minnesota governor lends a folksy dad vibe to the Harris campaign, from his jeans, tees and glasses to his dog-loving social-media posts. WSJ
Tim Walz and China: Close personal ties and sharp criticism of Beijing: Nikkei reports Harris' VP pick taught and honeymooned in country before becoming vocal on human rights.
The wisdom in calling Donald Trump weird: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are trying to make Democrats normal again. Economist
Will Donald Trump blow another election? As Kamala Harris rises in the polls, the former President doesn’t know how to respond. WSJ - Editorial
Trump took a private flight with Project 2025 leader in 2022: WP reports Trump took the flight to speak at a Heritage Foundation conference, where he said, “They’re going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do."
“F*** these Trump-loving techies”: Hollywood takes on Silicon Valley in an epic presidential brawl: LA’s liberal moguls are coming after Elon Musk and the rest of the Silicon Valley billionaire boys club in a political clash of the titans: “People are putting up a lot of dough just to teach these dudes they can’t buy an election.” THR
Forty-eight hours at the MAGA-fied crypto lovefest: The crowd at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville hopes Trump can make crypto great again. Bloomberg
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
NASA says Starliner astronauts could return with SpaceX—next year: WSJ reports officials confirm that NASA is considering using SpaceX for the return trip. Boeing said its craft is safe for crew.
Starliner crew may stay in space until February as NASA weighs SpaceX option: WP reports the astronauts on the Boeing test flight were supposed to stay on the International Space Station for eight days but could end up staying eight months.
Bloomberg: Warner Bros. takes $9.1 billion writedown on TV networks
Amazon develops China seller network to take on Temu, Shein: Nikkei reports Chinese upstarts are cutting into US e-commerce giant's share with cheap goods.
A booming industry of AI age scanners, aimed at children’s faces WP
Sound clashes are a thrilling reggae tradition. Will AI ruin them? The use of fake AI vocals – including those of Donald Trump – is sending shockwaves through this historic scene. At a Montego Bay clash, performers debate their culture’s future. Guardian
The Google decision is the right ruling — at the wrong time: The glacially slow process of reining in bad behavior by a powerful corporation lands just as AI takes off. Adam Lashinsky
*** Culture ***
Why a black-and-white feminist film was bigger than ‘Barbie’ in Italy NYT
The billionaire vs. the old money: On a coveted slice of Lake Michigan, a land swap has triggered a seething fight over the malign influence of wealth. NY Mag
*** Sport ***
Watching the Olympics is making me wonder: Is sport good for us? Medal-winning brilliance requires obsession as well as dedication and skill. I can’t help wondering what these athletes’ bodies and minds have gone through over the years. Adrian Chiles
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal