Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 30

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. The global response to China's DeepSeek AI platform has evolved into a serious international security concern: Multiple Western nations and institutions are taking defensive measures, with the US Navy implementing a complete ban and European nations raising data privacy concerns. This represents a shift from viewing Chinese AI as a competitive challenge to seeing it as a potential security threat.

2. Tough talk on the campaign trail about China: Despite campaign rhetoric promising a tough stance on China, early indicators suggest the Trump administration may be moderating its position, following a historical pattern of presidential candidates adjusting their China policies after taking office.

3. Global infrastructure security is becoming an increasingly critical concern: Highlighted by the suspicious damage to 11 Baltic cables in 15 months, coupled with ongoing cybersecurity threats from Chinese and Iranian actors, suggests a growing vulnerability in critical global communications and data infrastructure.

4. North American trade dynamics are shifting: Canada and Mexico are facing potential new tariff pressures from the US. The proposed policy framework suggests a broader review of continental trade relationships is imminent, which would reshape supply chains and business operations across North America.

5. The effectiveness of traditional export controls is being questioned: DeepSeek's success despite US chip restrictions demonstrates the limitations of using conventional trade controls to maintain technological superiority in the AI era. Look for new approaches to managing technological competition and protecting intellectual property.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 29

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Global power competition: The United States is taking an increasingly assertive stance toward allies and competitors alike, evidenced by tensions over Greenland, confrontational positions on the Panama Canal, and complex negotiations with China that mix cooperation with Ukraine with competition in AI technology.

2. Arctic's increasing strategic importance: The dramatic increase in Northern Sea Route traffic from 19 vessels in 2016 to 92 vessels in 2024, coupled with US interest in Greenland, indicates the Arctic's growing strategic significance, though local resistance remains high - 85% of Greenlanders oppose US control/

3. Democratic vulnerability in the West: Western democracies grapple with foreign interference, highlighted by Canada's election security concerns and investigation findings suggesting institutional weaknesses in protecting democratic processes from external manipulation.

4. The Congo in crisis: The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has escalated to a critical point, with Rwanda's involvement drawing parallels to other global conflicts and triggering anti-Western sentiment, as evidenced by embassy attacks in Kinshasa.

5. Border security transformation: North American neighbors Mexico and Canada are implementing unprecedented border security measures, including advanced technology deployment and physical barriers, in response to US pressure and threats of tariffs.

6. Geographic naming power: Trump's executive order to rename significant geographic features like the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America" and Denali to "Mount McKinley" in Alaska demonstrates how cartographic changes are tools of political influence and national identity assertion.

7. Mineral resource competition: The global race for critical minerals is intensifying, with Chinese companies actively acquiring mineral sands resources globally while Western supply chains develop more slowly, especially in Australian rare earth developments.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 28

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. DeepSeek's breakthrough in AI development has triggered a seismic shift in the tech sector, causing a $1 trillion market valuation drop and demonstrating that competitive AI models can be developed for around $55 million - a fraction of what major US tech companies have invested, suggesting potential market overcapitalization.

2. Made in China 2025: China's technological advancement, exemplified by DeepSeek's AI model and the partial success of Made in China 2025, demonstrates that US sanctions may be driving innovation rather than containment, forcing a reassessment of US tech competition strategy.

3. A significant transition is approaching in the Chinese leadership, with approximately 20% of local leaders set to retire in 2025, signaling potential shifts in national policy direction and economic strategy at a crucial moment in the US-China competition.

4. The Trump administration is pursuing an aggressive trade strategy, threatening tariffs against multiple allies, including Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It is simultaneously pursuing unconventional diplomatic initiatives regarding Greenland and Panama, indicating a return to confrontational foreign policy.

5. Denmark's $2 billion Arctic security investment represents a broader geopolitical shift as Arctic nations respond to increased strategic competition and US interest in the region, particularly regarding Greenland's status.

6. The European Union is intensifying its oversight of tech platforms' role in elections, with comprehensive stress tests planned for Meta, TikTok, X, Google, and others before the German elections. This highlights growing concerns about digital threats to democratic processes.

7. India and China's relationship faces new strain over China's plans to build the world's largest dam in Tibet. This project will add water security to existing border tensions and complicate efforts to repair bilateral relations.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 24

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Under Trump, a resurgence of American protectionism is emerging, with new tariff threats targeting major trading partners, including Mexico, Japan, and Europe. This stance has sparked warnings from the WTO chief about "catastrophic" impacts on global growth.

2. Global power dynamics are shifting, particularly in Asia, where China's collaboration with Iran on ballistic missiles and influence in Panama highlights growing geopolitical tensions. A notable security incident involves a Taiwanese general charged with aiding potential Chinese invasion plans.

3. Climate policy faces significant upheaval as the US and Argentina signal potential exits from the Paris Climate Accord, which could significantly impact COP30 discussions and global climate initiatives. However, the EU has maintained progress, with 47% adopting clean energy.

4. The US is expanding its military presence globally, particularly in strategic locations like Greenland and potentially Panama, where Trump's administration is pushing to regain control of the Panama Canal, citing concerns about Chinese influence.

5. According to the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer, trust in institutions is eroding. The report reveals increasing acceptance of aggressive action and deepening political polarization. This trend could impact business innovation and social stability.

6. NATO is demonstrating increased unity and capability, with the alliance agreeing to fund US weapons support for Ukraine. However, internal challenges persist, exemplified by Spain's low defense spending at 1.28% of GDP.

7. Saudi Arabia is strengthening ties with the US by committing to invest $600 billion over four years.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 23

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Trump's international relations reset: Trump is taking an assertive stance with multiple nations - pressuring Putin on Ukraine, proposing controversial mergers with Canada, threatening WHO withdrawal, and planning aggressive border policies with Mexico.

2. Global trade tensions are escalating: New tariff threats against the UK and Canada signal potential trade wars, with key allies scrambling to maintain economic relationships and protect critical industries.

3. European strategic realignment: France and Germany are strengthening EU unity in response to Trump's return, while Italy's Meloni positions herself as Europe's intermediary with the Trump administration.

4. Maritime security concerns: NATO confronts Russian and Chinese threats to undersea infrastructure, highlighted by Russian spy ship activity near British waters and increasing sabotage concerns in the Baltic Sea.

5. Environmental challenges intensifying: Brazil reports devastating wildfires covering 120,000 square miles (larger than Italy), representing a 79% increase from the previous year.

6. Argentina's economic experiment: President Milei's radical economic reforms and alignment with Trump are reshaping Argentina's international relationships, including the potential Mercosur exit for the US trade deal.

7. Immigration policy shifts: Major policy changes are emerging globally - the UK opening to skilled workers in AI and life sciences. At the same time, the US plans 10,000 troops at the border, and Turkey hosts 3M Syrian refugees.

Pro-tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate the challenges of geopolitics on your business objectives and help you confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 22

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. America's shifting global posture: Under Trump's leadership, the US is pursuing an unusually expansionist foreign policy, including potential military intervention for territorial acquisition (Panama Canal, Greenland), representing a dramatic departure from traditional US international relations.

2. Trade war escalation: A multi-front trade conflict is emerging, with Trump threatening 25% tariffs on Canada and broader protectionist measures. This prompts defensive responses from major allies, including Canada, Germany, and China, risking significant economic disruption.

3. European defense realignment: European security dynamics are shifting, evidenced by Sweden's first major NATO deployment of 550 troops to Latvia and Ukraine's criticism of European defense spending, indicating growing regional security concerns.

4. Middle East strategic developments: Israel's military operation in Jenin and Google's rapid deployment of AI tools to Israel's military highlight the increasing intersection of technology, military operations, and regional power dynamics.

5. Global economic fragmentation: EU Commission President von der Leyen's warning about the economy "fracturing along new lines" reflects growing concerns about deglobalization and the emergence of new economic blocs.

6: Asia-Pacific strategic positioning: Malaysia's closer alignment with Singapore through a new special economic zone and India's agreement to accept 18,000 citizens back from the US demonstrate how regional powers are adapting to US-China tensions.

7. China-Russia alignment: The timing of Putin and Xi's video call immediately after Trump's inauguration signals coordinated diplomatic positioning by these powers, potentially forming a counterweight to US influence.

Pro-tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate the challenges of geopolitics on your business objectives and help you confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Geopolitics @ Dawn | January 21

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Global trade realignment: Trump's planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, coupled with Canada's targeted retaliation strategy against red states, signals a fundamental shift in North American trade relations that could disrupt established supply chains and business partnerships.

2. European defense transformation: Macron's call for increased European defense spending, triggered by Trump's presidency, indicates a strategic pivot in EU security policy that could create new opportunities in the defense sector and reshape transatlantic military relationships.

3. Economic power dynamics: The Colonial Britain-India reparations debate ($64.82 trillion claim) and Spain's restrictions on foreign property ownership reflect growing tensions around historical economic inequities and modern capital flows, potentially impacting international investment strategies.

4. Geopolitical realignment: The emerging alliance between Trump and Italy's Meloni, combined with divided EU reactions, suggests a reshaping of traditional Western political alignments that could affect international business relationships and market access.

5. Asian security architecture: The evolution of Biden's Asian alliance network under Trump and North Korea's direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict indicates significant shifts in Pacific Rim security dynamics that could impact regional trade and investment patterns.

6. Latin American volatility: Colombia's deadliest violence since its peace accords and Argentina's economic experiments under Milei demonstrate continuing instability in Latin American markets, presenting risks and opportunities for international investors.

7. Global leadership forum transformation: Davos's diminishing influence amid rising nationalism, coupled with anxious anticipation of 'Trumponomics,' signals a fundamental shift in how global economic policy is shaped and communicated, requiring new approaches to international business strategy.

Pro-tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate the challenges of geopolitics on your business objectives and help you confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc