Caracal Business Insider | December 19, 2017

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Trump Doctrine, North Korea, Theresa May, Tax Overhaul, Sammy Hagar

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 19, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits.

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia


What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ Trump Doctrine - written report or speech given? 

✔️ Congress poised to approve biggest tax overhaul in 30 years

✔️ Tories urge Theresa May to stay until 2021

✔️ Athleisure sales nearly topped $46 billion

✔️ Manchester City's plan for global domination
 

GEOECONOMICS

Trump’s worldview: Economic strength bolsters security: WSJ reports, declaring that “economic security is national security,” President Donald Trump aimed to reframe a national debate over his domestic economic and trade policies by thrusting them into a national-security context.

Trump delivers a mixed message on his national security approach: NYT reports, Trump presented a blueprint for the country’s national security on Monday that warns of a treacherous world in which the United States faces rising threats from an emboldened Russia and China, as well as from what it calls rogue governments, like North Korea and Iran. To fend off these multiple challenges, the report says with Cold War urgency, the government must put “America First,” fortifying its borders, ripping up unfair trade agreements and rebuilding its military might.

Trump’s China strategy: trade war or American game: FT reports, US president’s national security speech reveals priorities including tough action on trade.

It was a speech searching for a strategy full of boilerplate campaign rhetoric that will do little but antagonize and force others to reply in kind.

What is the Trump Doctrine - is it the written report or is it the speech given?

Trump's rivalry with China overlooks US economic reliance: Bloomberg reports, Trump is breaking with recent U.S. convention by portraying China as a rival that wants to undermine American prosperity. But it may take more than an aggressive tone to change the complex relationship between two economies that are joined at the hip.Under his America First approach to foreign policy, Trump says he will try to eliminate America’s $500-billion total trade deficit by insisting on “fair and reciprocal” commerce with other nations and strengthen the national security test for foreign investments.

A trade deficit is a useless vanity metric to measure the status of a trade relationship, business connection, or commerce supply chain. Useless.

BTW, assembly is the low-end of commerce compared to the high-end of R&D, marketing, and branding. Think about where you want your business or nation on the U-shaped curve of commerce.

A Tillerson slip offers a peek into secret planning on North Korea: NYT reports, Tillerson revealed that the Trump administration had already provided assurances to China’s leadership that if American forces landed in North Korea to search for and deactivate nuclear weapons, the troops would do their work and then retreat.

"In other words, the United States would essentially cede North Korean territory to the Chinese military, or let China and South Korea figure out who would control 46,500 square miles of territory and take care of its 25 million occupants, many of whom already do not have enough to eat."

WSJ: Alleged North Korea missile broker arrested in Australia

"Sydney man accused of trying to sell missiles and coal for North Korea"

US says North Korea was behind a cyberattack that infected computers in more than 150 countries: WP reports, the Trump administration urged nations to counter North Korea’s ability to conduct cyber attacks and to implement United Nations sanctions after the massive WannaCry attack earlier this year.

China unveils an ambitious plan to curb climate change emissions: NYT reports, China released plans on Tuesday to start a giant market to trade credits for the right to emit planet-warming greenhouse gases. The nationwide market would initially cover only China’s vast, state-dominated power generation sector, which produced almost half of the country’s emissions from the burning of fossil fuels last year.

China's trying to gain political influence abroad, and the West isn't happy: CNBC reports, Western countries are growing increasingly cautious of China's Communist Party. Officials in the US, Australia, New Zealand, and Germany — major recipients of Chinese foreign direct investment — have been questioning the extent of Beijing's interference on their home turfs amid recent developments that suggest rising Chinese clout.

"Experts say China's Communist Party is using education, spying, political donations and people-to-people diplomacy to gain a greater say in decision-making within these countries."

#Duh

Sunlight v subversion - What to do about China’s “sharp power”: The Economist reports, China is manipulating decision-makers in Western democracies. The best defense is transparency. https://goo.gl/AY2VSL

At the sharp end - How China’s “sharp power” is muting criticism abroad: The Economist reports and stealthily trying to shape public opinion in its favor. https://goo.gl/Mm6ghe

Austria turns right: The thirty-one-year-old conservative Sebastian Kurz was sworn in as chancellor in Vienna on Monday after clinching a deal with the euro-skeptic Freedom Party. 

May, please stay: After months of reports that she could be “gone by Christmas,” May is now being urged to hang around until 2021 to avoid a bloody internal battle before trade talks with the EU are complete, the Times reports.

The Times: Tories urge Theresa May to stay until 2021

Uber driver held in diplomat’s death: WSJ reports, a driver working for Uber in Lebanon was arrested for the killing of a British diplomat over the weekend, local security officials said.

French finance minister calls for bitcoin regulation debate at G20: Reuters reports, France will propose that the G20 group of major economies discuss regulation of the bitcoin virtual currency next year, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Sunday. “I am going to propose to the next G20 president, Argentina, that at the G20 summit in April we have a discussion altogether on the question of bitcoin,” Le Maire told French news channel LCI.

Russia could cut off the internet to NATO countries, British military chief warns: NBC News reports, Russia could try to sever global underwater communications cables, potentially triggering catastrophic repercussions for the economy and way of life in the West, the head of Britain’s military has warned. 

AMERICAN POLITICS

Reuters: Congress poised to approve biggest tax overhaul in 30 years

#TaxTuesday: The House is poised to approve GOP tax legislation this afternoon with plans to hold a vote around 1:30 pm ET. The Senate could vote as soon as late this afternoon or early Wednesday morning.

GOP Nos: Most of the House GOP dissenters are from high-tax states and are concerned that the bill’s $10,000 limit on individuals’ state and local tax deductions will raise taxes on their middle-class constituents.

Dana Rohrabacher of California will not back tax overhaul - smart local politics for a pol that has a monster fight on his hands to secure re-election.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine will back the tax overhaul.

Senate Intelligence Committee investigating Jill Stein campaign for possible ‘collusion with the Russians’: WP reports, the inclusion of the Green Party candidate suggests the committee’s probe is far from over, even as lawmakers worry that the House Intelligence Committee is racing to a close.

You knew this was only a matter of time.

ENTERPRISE

Bitcoin futures started trading on CME, the largest futures exchange in the world, on Sunday evening.

Samsung is preparing to combat the iPhone X with the Galaxy S9 to be launched this spring.

Will they search for that? Chinese learn the art of hooking Americans on Amazon: WSJ reports, an instructor named Uncle Sam teaches entrepreneurs how to cut out the middleman and sell directly to Americans.

How China’s luxury e-commerce market will evolve in 2018https://goo.gl/izzFnQ

TRENDS

Year in search 2017: See what was trending in 2017https://goo.gl/f2VZ4K

How retro sportswear reigned supreme in 2017https://goo.gl/Nj8j4h 

The best piece of clothing I purchased this year was an Ocean Pacific (OP) windbreaker from the 80s.

Athleisure sales nearly topped $46 billion in 2016. 

Gifts: Average holiday spending to top $900, highest in at least 12 years: CNBC survey

CULTURE

Work hard, play hard: Life lessons from Sammy Hagarhttps://goo.gl/qHj91X

Reporters Without Borders: At least 65 media workers killed doing their jobs in 2017

"Thirty-nine of those killed were targeted for their journalistic work such as reporting on political corruption or organized crime while the other 26 were killed while working due to shelling and bomb attacks" 

SPORT

Manchester City's plan for global domination: Football has already been transformed by big money -- but the businessmen behind Man City are trying to build a global corporation that will change the game forever. https://goo.gl/HFeRGz

@CNBCnow: BREAKING: ESPN president and co-chairman of the Disney Media Networks John Skipper resigns citing "substance addiction"

Caracal Business Insider | December 18, 2017

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Strategic Competitor, Cold War, Healthy Snacks, Mount Everest

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 18, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits.

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia


What Caracal Global is watching today
:

✔️ Trump targets China and Russia on national security

✔️ Sebastián Piñera wins in Chile

✔️ Macron's 40th and French exceptionalism

✔️ Hershey to bet on healthy snacks

✔️ About 5,000 people have reached the top of Everest

GEOECONOMICS

FT: Trump to label China as a strategic ‘competitor’

"Beijing accused of pursuing policies of economic aggression to weaken US"

Trump’s national security focus shifts to Russia, China: WSJ reports, Trump will put his domestic economic and trade policies at the heart of a new national-security strategy that depicts the world as one of the heightened rivalries and potentially dangerous competition.

National security plan hints at return to Cold War footing: NYT reports, Trump’s first national security strategy, which envisions rivalries with China and Russia, is at odds with his often-warm relations with the leaders of those two countries.

New national security plan paints China and Russia as US competitors that want to realign global power in their interests: WP reports, Trump will present the strategy, which follows his “America First” doctrine, in a speech today. An official said the plan does not expressly “overturn” strategies of former president Barack Obama or his predecessors, but it frames Trump’s priorities differently.

Trump targets China and Russia on national security: Reuters reports, Trump will declare that China and Russia are competitors seeking to challenge U.S. power and erode its security and prosperity, in a national security strategy he will lay out today.

The speech will take place at 2:00 pm ET from the  Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center.

Five key facts about China’s economic conference: As the Communist Party’s leadership starts its annual economic work conference in Beijing, here are the main points to note. https://goo.gl/CEKJvk

Sebastián Piñera wins the presidential election in Chile: WSJ reports, the billionaire who had already served once as head of state cruised to victory, promising to reinvigorate the country’s flagging economy after four years of subpar growth.

Chile swings right to return Piñera to the presidency: FT reports, billionaire ex-leader joins Argentina’s Macri as another businessman-turned-president.

Honduran president declared winner, but OAS calls for new election: NYT reports, the Honduran electoral commission on Sunday declared President Juan Orlando Hernández the victor in a bitterly contested race, but the Organization of American States called for a new election, arguing that the vote was so riddled with irregularities that it was impossible to be sure of a winner. The electoral commission, which is controlled by allies of Mr. Hernández, said he had won by about 50,000 votes over the opposition candidate, Salvador Nasralla.

Macron appeals to French exceptionalism as 40th birthday looms: Bloomberg reports, “By choosing in May to elect a 39-year-old president, with no political party, that no one knew of, who came out of nowhere -- the choice our country has made -- that’s a choice that no other country has made,” he said late Sunday, directly invoking his youth within days of his 40th birthday. “France is only itself when it carries a real European vision and a real determination to pull the world towards the future.”

AMERICAN POLITICS

GOP faces a five-day sprint to pass its tax bill, forge a deal with Democrats to avoid a shutdown: WP reports, Republicans plan to vote on the tax bill early in the week, leaving them little time to strike a deal with Democrats to authorize funds to keep the government running.

Suburbs offer Democrats a path to House control: NYT reports, from Houston to Seattle, suburban districts once locked down by Republicans are looking to Democratic candidates to oppose President Trump.

If you a Republican MOC and there is a Whole Foods in your district - bye, Felicia.

The Thomas fire in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties has grown to be the third-largest wildfire in modern California history.

MAKE GLOBALIZATION SIMPLE 

Marc A. Ross works with clients to develop executive education lectures, speeches, presentations, workshops, and conferences to help demystify Globalization, Disruption, and American politics. Learn more here.

ENTERPRISE

Tencent teams up with JD.com to take on Alibaba: WSJ reports, in an escalating battle between China’s dominant internet giants, Tencent has teamed up with JD.com, Alibaba’s main e-commerce competitor, to buy a stake in the No. 3 online retail player.

Hershey to buy Amplify Snack in $1.6 billion bet on healthy snacks.

Campbell Soup Co. will buy Pretzels and Cape Cod chips maker Snyder‘s-Lance Inc for $4.87 billion as it looks to expand its snack business amid sagging soup sales.

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s: Reuters reports, Toyota Motor Corp said it would market more than 10 all-electric vehicle (EV) models globally in the early 2020s, a target which could require the firm to look beyond a partnership with Panasonic Corp to co-develop and supply batteries.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi'opens with $220 million box office weekend - the second best weekend all-time.

I saw the Darkest Hour this weekend and can report that Gary Oldman was sensational.

TRENDS

Hard questions: Is spending time on social media bad for us? Facebook says yes. http://bit.ly/2oEu5uH

Meet the ‘world’s only full-time hemp reporter’ https://goo.gl/NwYqKa

@wef: Robots could start to replace teachers as soon as 2027 http://wef.ch/2CyL2Zr  

CULTURE

Mount Everest: About 5,000 people have reached the top of the mountain since the feat was first accomplished in 1953, and nearly 300 people have died in the attempt.

SPORT

The Carolina Panthers will be sold after their longtime owner, Jerry Richardson, was accused of what the team called “workplace misconduct.”

@cwordock: Diddy said he wants to buy the Carolina Panthers and sign Colin Kaepernick

Caracal Business Insider | December 15, 2017

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China Soft Power Fail, Paul Ryan, Mexico, Putin, Amazon, H&M

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 15, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits.

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia


What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ South Korea outraged by journalist beating in China

✔️ Two Canadian Senators’ business venture linked to China

✔️ EU launches next phase of Brexi

✔️ Paul D. Ryan exiting as speaker?

✔️ H&M says to close more stores as customers go online

GEOECONOMICS

World trade order in a wobble as Washington snubs WTO status quo: Reuters reports, the frustration of Roberto Azevedo was evident when, as director general of the World Trade Organization, he summed up the results of a three-day ministerial conference in Buenos Aires in the past week. There were simply none.

China set for slower growth target in 2018: Caixin reports, key policymaking meeting likely to focus on curbing financial risks, reining in debt.

Chinese authorities collecting DNA from all residents of Xinjiang: Guardian reports, officials build a database of iris scans and blood types of everyone aged 12 to 65 in the region home to 11 million Muslim Uighurs.

This is troubling.

How's the soft power campaign working?


South Korea outraged by journalist beating in China: AFP reports, South Korean news media on Friday expressed anger and outrage after Chinese security guards beat and severely injured a South Korean photojournalist covering President Moon Jae-In's visit to Beijing. Opposition parties and internet users joined in, saying the incident epitomised the Asian giant's attitude towards its smaller neighbor.

This is also troubling.

How's the soft power campaign working?


Can China contain bitcoin? It is trying. But the cryptocurrency is bigger than any country, even the one where it has been most popular. https://goo.gl/PQsngB

Caixin: Asian Development Bank to invest in cleaning up Beijing’s air

Two Conservative senators’ business venture linked to China: Two Conservative senators – one with close ties to Beijing – set up a private consulting business this year with partners who are involved in attracting investment from China to Newfoundland and Labrador, corporate records show.

Senator Victor Oh, who recently said he has not conducted any "personal business" in Canada or China since his appointment to the Red Chamber in 2013, formed a St. John's-based company in April with Senator David Wells. Mr. Wells would not say whether Signal Hill Management is pursuing business deals with China-based entities.

J-Alert: One of Japan's Japan’s most popular phrases is the system used to warn citizens of an imminent missile attack.

US offers 'proof' missile fired at Saudi Arabia was Iranian: AFP reports, the United States on Thursday presented pieces of what it said is the missile fired at Saudi Arabia by Houthi militia in Yemen, describing it as conclusive evidence of Iran involvement and its violation of UN resolutions.

Red Dawn in Lapland: Outside reports, Finland shares an 833-mile border with an aggressive and unpredictable neighbor. That proximity led to a major conflict during World War II—the horrific Winter War—and even now it keeps Finns nervous about Russia’s intentions. David Wolman suited up to train with the elite soldiers who will be on the front lines if this cold feud ever gets hot. https://goo.gl/y1iMiE

EU gives UK go-ahead for next phase of Brexit talks: FT reports, negotiations to start on trade after leaders endorse progress on the divorce settlement.

'Congratulations': EU launches next phase of Brexit: Reuters reports, the European Union agreed on Friday to move talks forward with London on Britain's exit from the bloc as leaders warmed to the British premier, but there was little clarity on trade, as well as on some issues already discussed

Theresa May, navigating Brexit, reaches a first finish line: NYT reports, Ms. May lacks many of the qualities that draw a person into politics. She does not enjoy the public spotlight, or have a vision she yearns to share with the country. In a political environment that demands social ease and boundless intellectual confidence — the “tranquil consciousness of effortless superiority” once attributed to Oxford’s Balliol College by one of its famous alumni — she is formal, controlled and extremely private.

“In some ways, she’s old-fashioned English in an era where being old-fashioned and English is no longer acceptable,” said Philip Cowley, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London.

Some Canada firms could move to US amid NAFTA worries: Reuters reports, more a quarter of Canadian firms could move part of their operations to the United States amid uncertainty over the future of the NAFTA trade pact, the nation's export credit agency said on Friday.

Mexico plots open trade course to escape Trump's NAFTA threats: Reuters reports, Trump’s ‘America First’ brand of economic nationalism is pushing Mexico to seek sanctuary in more open commercial ties elsewhere to soften the blow of a possible breakdown of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

"Mexico has lobbied hard to defend NAFTA. The country is heavily dependent on U.S. demand, which soaks up around 80 percent of its goods exports."

Mexico scores big tourism gains after hurricanes devastate Caribbean islands: LAT reports, from October 2017 through March 2018, airlines cut more than 1.2 million seats to Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Cuba and St. Martin. In that same period, they've added more than 600,000 seats on flights to popular Mexican destinations.

The Russia facts are hiding in plain sight
WP - David Ignatius

AFP: Putin says Arctic exploration a priority for Russia

Russia election date = March 18, 2018

I wonder if the Trumpster will join Putin on the hustings?

AMERICAN POLITICS

Tax reform: Republicans expect to unveil the final version of their $1.5 trillion tax measure today.

The Republicans’ problem is bigger than Alabama: A string of defeats points to weaknesses beyond one tainted candidate and to trouble in 2018 and beyond. https://goo.gl/iQegmn

"Voters who disapprove of Trump have reliably cast ballots against Republican candidates in each of the three major elections this year: In Alabama, 93 percent of those who disapproved of Trump voted for Jones; in Virginia, 87 percent voted for Gillespie’s Democratic opponent, Ralph Northam."

8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicanshttps://goo.gl/tY8UG5

"Among those 65 years old (and older), Moore won by 19 points. Among all other voters -- aged 18-64 -- he lost by eight."

Paul Ryan sees his wild Washington journey coming to an end: Politico reports, he felt he was ‘made for this moment.’ But now, on the verge of achieving his long-sought legislative dream, he’s got his eyes on the exits.

Paul D. Ryan exiting as speaker? It only makes sense.
WP - Aaron Blake

"Trump has already turned Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) into a pariah with a newly imperiled majority, and it seems only a matter of time before the House's failure to meet Trump's expectations causes him to truly turn his fire on Ryan too."

@politico: #BREAKING: House Speaker Paul Ryan considering retirement after 2018 midterms http://politi.co/2o58WcR 

@POLITICOMag: Paul Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker


@CNNPolitics: 5 reasons why Paul Ryan should definitely quit in 2018 | Analysis by CNN's Chris Cillizza http://cnn.it/2AqHh7X

@FoxBusiness: @SpeakerRyan aides dismiss reports of possible 2018 resignation


Net Neutrality: The FCC voted to dismantle rules governing how internet-service providers treat traffic, a move that is likely to empower cable and wireless providers.

"We are helping consumers and promoting competition.” --F.C.C. Chairman Ajit Pai

Recommendations signal major changes coming to Iowa’s Caucuses https://goo.gl/7vXbsN

ENTERPRISE

NYT: Uber under criminal investigation, Justice Dept. confirms in letter to court

"It is the first public confirmation by the Department of Justice of a federal inquiry into the San Francisco-based ride-hailing company."

Nordic Choice Hotels tests blockchain distribution for Stockholm property: Skift reports, hotels, like airlines, currently rely on the global distribution systems and other intermediaries for distribution. Bypassing them could be an attractive proposition if it would lower costs.

Google’s return to China foretells a global race to deliver AI: MIT Tech Review reports, with a new research center in Beijing, Google hopes to strengthen its global position in offering AI services through the cloud.

Transneft says its computers were used for mining cryptocurrency: Reuters reports, computers at Transneft have been used for the unauthorized manufacture, or "mining", of the cryptocurrency Monero, a vice-president of the Russian pipeline operator said.

Disney-21st Century Fox deal ensures that the future of television and movie viewing is online.

H&M shares slide after unexpected sales fall: FT reports, Swedish fashion retailer has been struggling with a shift to online shopping.

AFP: H&M says to close more stores as customers go online

Reuters: Siemens partners with Amazon as it ramps up industrial software platform


Amazon wants it all.

TRENDS

Facebook invites HR pros to steal its sexual harassment policy.

AOL Instant Messenger made social media what it is today: The once popular messaging platform goes dark this week, but its legacy of instant communication is here to stay. https://goo.gl/3UrMwc

How a Welsh jeans firm became a cult global brandhttps://goo.gl/Pk19KB

CULTURE

Breaking: Harry and Meghan to marry on May 19, 2018.

SOTD

Recomposed by Max Richter: Vivaldi, The Four Seasons, Spring 1 https://goo.gl/wtL6XN

SPORT

What did the Reds show Shohei Ohtani? http://cin.ci/2AgOrvc

Creator versus disruptor: Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho battle for the fate of the universe (and the Premier League). https://goo.gl/GNkUMQ