Notre Dame, THAAD, Terry Gou, Bernie Sanders, Los Angeles Clippers

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Notre Dame, THAAD, Terry Gou, Bernie Sanders, Los Angeles Clippers

Caracal Global Daily
April 16, 2019
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ Notre Dame draws an estimated 13 million visitors a year

✔️ Donald Trump, China savior? Some Chinese say yes

✔️ Uber Eats will deliver to your airport gate

✔️ ‘Stop Sanders’ Democrats are agonizing over his momentum

✔️ JetBlue intends for flights to London

GLOBALIZATION

Notre Dame fire: Built in the 13th century, the medieval cathedral is considered a feat of architecture as much as a religious symbol. It is one of Paris' best-known landmarks and one of the most-visited tourist sites in the world, drawing an estimated 13 million visitors a year.

CNBC: Vuitton and Gucci owners pledge more than $300 million to rebuild Notre Dame after fire

CNN: French billionaires and companies pledge $450 million to rebuild Notre Dame


@AP: BREAKING: French billionaire Bernard Arnault and his group LVMH pledge 200 million euros for Notre Dame's reconstruction.

@LVMH: "In the wake of this national tragedy, the Arnault family and the LVMH Group pledge their support for #NotreDame. They will donate a total of 200 million euros to the fund for reconstruction of this architectural work, which is an integral part of the history of France."


Italy targets Amazon in market dominance probe: AFP reports, Italy's competition authority said Tuesday it had opened an investigation into Amazon for possible abuse of its dominant position in online commerce and logistics. The authority said it suspected that the retail giant had been giving preferential exposure to third-party vendors on its platform only if they subscribed to Amazon's logistics service.

China’s SenseTime sells out of Xinjiang security joint venture: FT reports, facial recognition group’s move follows scrutiny of security operations in region.

Saber rattling: China and US at a dangerous military tipping point: CNBC reports, China is lashing out at South Korea and Washington for the deployment of a powerful missile defense system known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, deposited at the Osan Air Base in South Korea on Monday evening. 

In search for leverage, Trump may be undercutting his own trade deals: NYT reports, Trump has argued that this aggressive and unpredictable negotiating style allows him to extract greater economic concessions than past administrations — and he may be right, at least in the short run. But his approach is causing concern among business groups and foreign officials, who say the uncertainty Mr. Trump loves to sow could undermine the role the United States has traditionally played in setting and stabilizing the global rules of trade, hampering economic growth in the process.

Gideon Rachman: Why Donald Trump is great news for Xi Jinping: The US president has disarmed America in the battle of ideas.

"Trump has been in office long enough for certain patterns to emerge in his behavior. The US president likes to create a crisis, let it run a while and then announce that he has solved it. He will frighten friend and foe alike with dire threats, before striking an agreement that he self-certifies as “tremendous”. In reality, the new deal will often be superficial and the underlying issues will remain largely unaddressed."

"In a few weeks time, the US president will declare a great victory. His loyal aides will play along. But the underlying reality will be that not much has actually changed in the economic relationship between the US and China — in the same way that not much changed in the trade relationship between the US, Canada and Mexico after MrTrump’s team renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement."

Donald Trump, China savior? Some Chinese say yes: NYT reports, business leaders and intellectuals say one of Beijing’s toughest critics could force the country to change. Still needed: voices of support from the inside. https://nyti.ms/2V2q81O

The US wants to ban Huawei. AT&T Mexico relies on it. WSJ reports, US officials have told telecom executives around the world to steer clear of Huawei Technologies, calling the company a national-security threat, but that hasn’t prevented AT&T from using the Chinese company’s equipment in Mexico.

China a major threat to Canadian security: Ottawa: Asia Times reports, amid worsening relations between Canada and China, a parliamentary committee in Ottawa has cited Chinese spies and agents as major threats to Canadian security. 

College kids are living like kings in Vancouver’s empty mansions: Globe-trotting landlords can avoid vacancy taxes by renting. It’s the latest twist for a housing market down 8.5% from its peak. https://bloom.bg/2V3OyYI

Tokyo raises concern over Beijing’s industrial policies: FT reports, Japan fears Chinese groups will gain unfair advantage when competing on new technologies.

Okinawa has been eager to expel US troops. A murder-suicide is pouring fuel on those flames. WP reports, last week’s deadly incident in which a US sailor is suspected of killing a Japanese woman is among the high-profile crimes involving American forces in Okinawa that have angered officials and the community for decades.

Foxconn chairman weighs run for Taiwan presidency: FT reports, the founder of the world’s main iPhone supplier to step back from daily operations. Terry Gou is Taiwan's richest person with a net worth of $7.6 billion, according to Forbes.

Indonesians head to the polls: About 193 million residents are eligible to decide who leads the Southeast Asian nation, which is an outpost of democracy and is forecast to be among the world’s biggest economies by 2030.

@APMiddleEast: Libya is on the verge of an all-out war involving a rogues’ gallery of militias, many of which are little more than criminal gangs armed with heavy weapons.

Russia's parliament votes to unplug internet from world: DW reports, the Russian Duma has given its final approval to a bill creating a domestic internet. Lawmakers say it aims to protect Russia from cyber threats — but the law has sparked protest: Critics worry it will allow censorship.

FT: Russia plans Vladimir Putin-North Korea talks, reports say

Moscow prepares meeting next week between president and Kim Jong Un, Kremlin confirms.

DISRUPTION

Uber Eats will deliver to your airport gate: Passengers at Toronto Pearson airport will be able to order food and have it delivered to them at the gate. Launching in Q3 of this year, the pilot program is a joint collaboration between Toronto Pearson, the airport restaurant operator HMSHost and Uber Eats. Customers can order from a selection of restaurants including Caplansky's Deli, Paramount Fine Foods, Smoke's Burritorie, Smashburger or Fionn MacCools.

Rise of the Chief Data Officer (CDO): A new C-suite role is getting traction, and by 2019 it's expected that 90% of large global organizations will have a Chief Data Officer (CDO) on their teams.

According to Pew Research, 91% of Americans “agree” or “strongly agree” that people have lost control over how personal information is collected and used.

By 2025, it’s estimated that 463 exabytes of data will be created each day globally – that’s the equivalent of 212,765,957 DVDs per day.


The robots that manage the managers: More companies are turning to AI-driven apps that aim to help newer bosses with reminders and tips on how to maintain a well-run office. https://on.wsj.com/2V1U2mF

Asia VC cash: Last year, $81 billion was invested in VC-backed startups in Asia across more than 5,000 deals. That's an increase of almost 12x in funding to Asia-based startups since 2013.

POLITICS

Mueller Report: Attorney General William Barr expects to provide special counsel Robert Mueller’s report to Congress and the public on Thursday

Roger Stone asked a federal judge to compel the Justice Department to turn over a full copy of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s report on the Russia investigation as part of discovery in his criminal case. 

Stephen Miller emerges: With Kirstjen Nielsen out and Miller ascendant, the White House is preparing to bombard the judicial system with cases that will test the limits of current immigration law.

House panels subpoena Deutsche Bank in Trump inquiry: WSJ reports, two House panels have issued subpoenas to Deutsche Bank and other financial institutions, as Democrats continued to pursue an inquiry into President Trump’s financial interests.

Trump intends to present Tiger Woods with the highest civilian award following his Masters win.

Current national security leadership:

Defense Secretary: Vacant (Acting in place)
DHS: Vacant
UN Ambassador: Vacant (Acting in place)
FEMA Director: Vacant (Acting in place)
Secret Service Director: Vacant
ICE Director: Vacant (Acting in place)
DHS Deputy: Vacant (Acting in place)


Bernie takes lead for Democratic nomination, Mayor Pete on the move: A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%.

‘Stop Sanders’ Democrats are agonizing over his momentum: NYT reports, members of the party establishment who oppose Senator Bernie Sanders have discussed how to handle his candidacy. Others are warning of a schism.

Nathan Robinson: Pete Buttigieg is the Democrats' flavor of the month. Just don't ask what he stands for: Pete Buttigieg is a man with a lot of ‘gold stars’ on his résumé, but why should anybody actually trust him to be on their side? http://bit.ly/2V3KVlF

Bill Weld has formally announced he is running for President of the United States of America and will seek the Republican nomination.

COMMERCE

Publicis makes biggest purchase with $4.4bn Epsilon cash deal: FT reports, ad group acquires digital marketing agency as it steps up business transition.

Huawei chips: Huawei is open to selling Apple its "5G" mobile connectivity chips, company founder Ren Zhengfei has said. So far, Huawei has reserved those chips for its own phones. Apple does not yet have a "5G"-capable device.

Huawei reveals it has no 5G contracts from mainland China: FT reports, disclosure comes as analysts say country has scaled back rollout of technology.

JetBlue intends to launch multiple flights from the East Coast to London, in an attempt to entice trans-Atlantic business away from American and Delta. 

The learning machine: Amazon’s empire rests on its low-key approach to AI: Unflashy but high-powered machine learning powers everything from its fulfilment centres to the cloud. https://econ.st/2UZU1Q9

Netflix changes the way TV production is paid for: FT reports, streaming service will drip-feed $19.3bn to producers over the next five years.

Warner Bros. plans to buy Burbank Studios and occupy new Frank Gehry ‘iceberg’ towers: LAT reports, as part of the deal, Warner Bros. will sell its historic North Hollywood Way facility.

DW: No slowdown for Porsche in China

Volkswagen bets on electromobilty in China
: DW reports, the Chinese car market has grown rapidly over the past 20 years, with Germany's VW group now selling every second car there. But as the fat years seem to be over, VW has made a risky bet on electric vehicles for growth

CULTURE

Game of Thrones finally returned Sunday night. I haven't seen one episode.

After complaints that it made light of drug epidemic, Milk Bar renames its famous Crack Pie: WP reports, Chef Christina Tosi wrote that the old name was “getting in the way of letting the gooey, buttery slice bring happiness — my only goal in creating the thing in the first place.”

SPORT

FT: Hopes rise that ‘Tiger effect’ will put swing back into golf

Clippers pull off biggest comeback in playoff history
: AFP reports, the Los Angeles Clippers delivered the biggest comeback in NBA playoff history Monday, rallying from a 31-point deficit for a shocking 135-131 win over the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors.

AFP: F1 in talks over second China GP, road race on cards

Dakar Rally moves to Saudi Arabia for2020 race
: DW reports, the world-renowned off-road race had moved from Europe and Africa to South America following major security concerns. Now it's headed to "the deep and mysterious deserts" of Saudi Arabia.

Champions League - Quarterfinals:

Ajax v Juventus (Aggregate 1-1) - Tuesday @ 3:00 pm ET
Barcelona v Manchester United (Aggregate 1-0) - Tuesday @ 3:00 pm ET

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City (Aggregate 1-0) - Wednesday @ 3:00 pm ET
Liverpool v Porto (Aggregate 2-0) - Wednesday @ 3:00 pm ET

Juan Guaido, Bob Iger, Theresa May, Terry Gou, Tiger Woods

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Juan Guaido, Bob Iger, Theresa May, Terry Gou, Tiger Woods

Caracal Global Daily
April 15, 2019
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ We have reached the end of the Franco-German love-in

✔️ How to win friends and influence algorithms

✔️ Goldman economists say Trump re-election more likely than not

✔️ Tiger’s Masters victory is a $22 million win for Nike

✔️ Solskjær hatches a plan for Camp Nou

ROSS RANT

Being counted doesn't always count.


"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." -- Albert Einstein

The world is inundated with data.

But yet Hollywood can't guarantee a hit.

The outcome of the Stanley Cup can't be confirmed.

The future UK PM officeholder can't be verified.

And the next chef to beat Bobby Flay can't be affirmed.

Still, we love data.

"Do a survey. Do a focus group. Do a study."

Do more data.

I don't think the magic is in more data.

Data should not be about trying to use the information to prove a theory, but to see what the numbers are actually telling us and to inform us what we might be missing - especially since the mind likes to trick us.

You see, our brains are wired to remember and overvalue the vivid and the shocking. Our brains are wired to remember events that actually happened and not events that could happen.

So often we comfort ourselves in data to gain a better understanding and some guidance, but the data often falls short.

In their book, Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong, authors Chris Anderson and David Sally concluded that soccer is basically a 50/50 game. Half is luck, and half is skill.

With this conclusion, the authors determined there are two routes to soccer glory. One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game.

Disney CEO Bob Iger used a similar conclusion this week.

With the announcement of his company's over the top Disney+ streaming service, Iger is going where his customers are going. One where customers can customize their viewing experience and seamlessly view Mickey and Minnie on numerous devices.

No survey, no focus group, and no study needed to know this is a good move for Disney.

Disney has a customer experience that is visceral and multigenerational. A customer experience that is deep and broad. A customer experience forged with skill.

But Iger knows Disney needs more than skill to win the future.

As Iger told CNBC, if you measure the future against the present, the present doesn't stay the present for very long. Today's marketplace has never been more dynamic.

You can't measure what is happening today. You need to measure what you think will happen in the future - that and harness a little luck.

The reasons many of us don't innovate is the data and the information being used is shaped by a current business model and what has gotten us to our current status.

Data which is based on the present and data which is not of the future.

So be mindful of having too much data as a means to confirm what you want the outcome to be.

Plus don't be afraid of harnessing a little bit of luck.

-Marc

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in thought leader strategy for executives and entrepreneurs working at the intersection of globalization and politics.

GLOBALIZATION

IMF meetings: The Spring IMF/World Bank meetings ended at the weekend with an air of cautious optimism. While the IMF did cut its forecast for growth, the risk of a recession remains low. 

World Bank urges financial inclusion as growth falters in Europe and Central Asia: DW reports, the economic outlook for the 23 countries that make up the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia unit is gloomy. To improve things, the unit's chief economist Asli Demirguc-Kunt suggests a push for financial inclusion.

Juan Guaido: Why China should switch sides in Venezuela: Our country will be a source of prosperity that fulfills its commitments and ensures security to investors, pledges its interim president. 

Julian Assange: The president of Ecuador, Lenín Moreno, has told the Guardian that Julian Assange repeatedly violated his asylum conditions and tried to use the Ecuadorian embassy in London as a “center for spying” during his seven-year stay there, which ended with his expulsion and arrest by UK police on Thursday.

Duterte heeds pressure to confront China as midterms approach in the Philippines: LAT reports, a year after joking about his country becoming a province of China and professing his “love” for Chinese President Xi Jinping, Duterte is heeding pressure at home to confront Beijing. The Philippine strongman known for his bluster employed his toughest language in years against China this month when he told the country to stay away from the Philippine-held island of Thitu or face the prospect of suicide attacks.

“I will not plead or beg, but I am just telling you [to] lay off the Pag-Asa because I have soldiers there. If you touch that, that’s a different story. I can tell my soldiers, ‘Prepare for suicide missions,’ ” Duterte said in a recent speech.

Moon chases inter-Korean summit to save Trump-Kim nuclear talks: WSJ reports, South Korea’s president said he would push for another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he seeks to rejuvenate a diplomatic process that has stalled over the question of how to dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons.

FT: Lighthizer faces crunch time as US-China trade talks near finish

“I think he will deliver a deal, but the question is whether it will, to put it nicely, pass the ‘straight-face’ test,” said one former senior trade official. “Trump will say whatever they sign is the greatest thing ever, but the jury is still out on whether this will be a real, substantial deal that people take seriously.” 

US waters down demand China ax subsidies in push for trade deal - sources: Reuters reports, US negotiators have tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing, according to two sources briefed on discussions, marking a retreat on a core U.S. objective for the trade talks.

Bloomberg: China to consider US request to shift tariffs on farm goods

Trump looking to sell deal as win for farmers.

Anjani Trivedi: China's secret weapon in the electric car race: Local automakers are hoarding the country’s “new-energy vehicle” credits, giving them leverage when renegotiating joint ventures with western rivals. 

FBI bars some China scholars from visiting US over spying fears: NYT reports, the FBI has mounted a counterintelligence operation that aims to bar Chinese academics from the United States if they are suspected of having links to Chinese intelligence agencies. As many as 30 Chinese professors in the social sciences, heads of academic institutes, and experts who help explain government policies have had their visas to the United States canceled in the past year, or put on administrative review, according to Chinese academics and their American counterparts.

On rare Taiwan visit, US official urges 5G investment screening: Nikkei reports, Washington seeks tough enforcement to curb Beijing's distorting market practices. David Meale, deputy assistant secretary for trade policy and negotiations at the U.S. State Department, recently addressed the American Institute in Taiwan on 5G.

German regulator says Huawei can stay in 5G race: FT reports, agency defies US call for ban on Chinese group provided it abides by data secrecy rules.

FT: US warns of Huawei’s growing influence over eastern Europe

Secretary of state Mike Pompeo begins diplomatic push to curb China’s ambitions in region.

Bloomberg: Huawei has skirted outright bans in Europe. But not 5G regulations

EU member states approve contentious copyright reform
: DW reports, EU member states have given final approval for copyright reforms ensuring artists and news publishers get their due in the internet era. The proposed reforms have triggered Europe-wide protests over internet freedom.

EU countries back starting trade talks with United States: Reuters reports, European Union countries gave final clearance on Monday to start formal trade talks with the United States after months of delay due to French resistance.

Wolfgang Munchau: We have reached the end of the Franco-German love-in: The interests of the two countries and their leaders are diverging.

Last week’s European Council was dominated by Brexit. But it may be remembered for the visible cracks in the Franco-German relationship.

France and Germany do not disagree on the principle of European political integration, but they are at loggerheads on the most important details. We are headed into a period in which the interests of the two countries and their leaders are diverging. These will be difficult years for the EU.


Macron to set out fix for 'yellow vest' anger: AFP reports, President Emmanuel Macron was to set out a series of major policy announcements Monday in response to five months of nationwide "yellow vest" protests, in what has been billed as a make-or-break moment for his presidency.

Leadership rivals urge May to stay for months: The Times reports, Cabinet rivals to succeed Theresa May are backing the prime minister to stay in office into the autumn if she fails to get her Brexit deal through parliament. 

Guardian: Sisi could rule Egypt until 2030 under constitutional changes

MPs to vote on granting president control over the judiciary and boosting military power. 

DISRUPTION

Making babies in the year 2045: Huge pools of health data collected over the past generation allow you to pick many of your child’s genetic traits. Are you comfortable with that? https://nyti.ms/2KEswaU

How to win friends and influence algorithms: From YouTube to Instagram, what you see in your feeds isn’t really up to you—it’s all chosen by invisible, inscrutable bots. Here’s how to take back at least some control. https://on.wsj.com/2UXDah4

POLITICS

US 5G: Trump has ruled out using the US government to roll out 5G networks, a plan promoted by some in his administration as a way of beating China in the race to superfast internet. Trump said on Friday he wanted private companies to take the lead on building 5G in the US, dealing a blow to those in his own party who had championed the use of the public sector to help do it more quickly and cheaply.

Democrats want Stephen Miller to testify on immigration policy: WP reports, House Democrats are sharpening their focus on the White House immigration adviser, saying Miller should answer questions about an administration plan to release undocumented immigrants into “sanctuary cities” represented by critics of the president.

Pete Buttigieg launches his official 2020 presidential bid in South Bend.

Molly Roberts: How Pete Buttigieg stole Beto O’Rourke’s mojo: Buttigieg-mania isn’t really a thing, and that’s not only because it’s a mouthful: It’s because Buttigieg is appealing not for being larger than life, but for being regular-sized. That’s refreshing in an era where, as Buttigieg himself pointed out, one nominee in the last presidential election put “I’m with her” on campaign buttons and the other was Trump.

Trump 2020: His campaign raised more than $30 million in the first quarter.

Goldman economists say Trump re-election more likely than not: Bloomberg reports, Trump enjoys a “narrow advantage” over rival candidates heading into the 2020 election given the outlook for the US economy, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Incumbent presidents carry a 5 to 6 percentage-point edge over rival candidates in the popular vote and Goldman Sachs’s economic forecast also leans in favor of Trump, although that is partly offset by his negative approval rating, economists Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor wrote in a report released late on Saturday.

“The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” said Phillips and Blake. 

COMMERCE

Bloomberg: Mercedes goes for offroad looks on compact SUV in China

Waste Management 
is buying competitor Advanced Disposal Services for around $2.9 billion.

Charley Grant: Tesla can’t stop dreaming big: Elon Musk’s ambitions to turn Tesla into a dominant automobile player have become a liability instead of an asset.

American Airlines cancels summer flights as Boeing 737 Max fears persist.

Foxconn Technology Group + India + iPhone: Chairman Terry Gou said the iPhone will go into mass production in India this year, a shift for the largest assembler of Apple Inc.’s handsets that has long concentrated production in China.

Bloomberg: Tiger’s Masters victory is a $22 million win for Nike

SPORT

Tiger Woods shot a 2-under 70 on Sunday to win the Masters by one shot to secure his 15th major title.

The win comes exactly two years since Woods told friends, “I’m done,” before a fourth back surgery resolved a spinal problem that had left him barely able to walk.

Today: The Boston Marathon takes place.

OTD: In 1989 96 football fans were crushed to death at Hillsborough stadium in Sheffield at the start of the FA Cup semi-final between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.

Hillsborough 30 years on: Victims' families continue fight for justice: DW reports, Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster. The worst stadium tragedy in British history and its aftermath still haunts English football, with a recent twist in legal proceedings adding to the saga.

Champions League - Quarterfinals - Round 2:

Ajax v Juventus (Aggregate 1-1) - Tuesday @ 3:00 pm ET
Barcelona v Manchester United (Aggregate 1-0) - Tuesday @ 3:00 pm ET

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City (Aggregate 1-0) - Wednesday @ 3:00 pm ET
Liverpool v Porto (Aggregate 2-0) - Wednesday @ 3:00 pm ET


Solskjær hatches a plan for Camp Nou: Ole Gunnar Solskjær believes that in Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard, Manchester United have an attack that can overturn the 1-0 deficit to Barcelona in their Champions League quarter‑final second leg on Tuesday. 

NATO, Wellness, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Holmes, Idris Elba, Formula E

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NATO, Wellness, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Holmes, Idris Elba, Formula E

Caracal Global Daily
April 12, 2019
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ Arab Spring 2.0

✔️ For NATO, China is the new Russia

✔️ Who comes to the rescue of stranded robots?

✔️ Buttigieg is the hottest thing in politics. Can it last?

✔️ Uber warns it may never make profit

GLOBALIZATION

A second North African autocrat is on the verge of being felled this month by massive popular protests: Call it Arab Spring 2.0.

NATO to enhance security in the Black Sea region: UK Defence Journal reportts, NATO Foreign Ministers agreed a package of measures to improve situational awareness in the Black Sea region and strengthen support for partners Georgia and Ukraine. 

For NATO, China is the new Russia: Politico reports, Beijing, rather than Moscow, was the top concern as the alliance gathered in Washington early this month. 

Military drills in Arctic aim to counter Russia, but the first mission is to battle the cold: NYT reports, bitter temperatures pose an immediate threat to NATO troops defending icy waterways.

Indonesia unrest: The former special forces commander taking on President Joko Widodo in next week’s election has vowed to tap into a “tsunami” of discontent he says is building across the country. As Bloomberg reports, Prabowo Subianto has challenged tens of thousands of supporters at rallies to reject the April 17 result if the president wins a second five-year term, setting the stage for a disputed poll and possible mass protests.

Malaysia to resume China-built Belt and Road rail project: FT reports, Beijing agrees to cut cost by a third to break year-long impasse.

Japan’s population decline accelerates: FT reports, country set to lose equivalent of a midsize city every year for foreseeable future.

As China trade war cools, Japan braces for its clash with Trump: Bloomberg reports, the world’s third-biggest economy has a lot at stake in the talks, which are expected to start next week in Washington just as the U.S.’s negotiations with China appear to be winding down. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is desperate to avoid tariffs or quotas on lucrative auto exports, while Trump wants to crack open Japan’s agricultural market and reduce a $60 billion trade deficit.

Millions of Chinese youth 'volunteers' to be sent to villages in echo of Maoist policy: Guardian reports, Communist Youth League students to ‘spread civilization’ in countryside and ‘promote technology.’

David Hoffman: What’s missing from the US-China trade deal: The only way to truly change Chinese commercial behavior is to open up the country to full and unhindered foreign competition. 

Theresa May could bring forward Brexit bill to break deadlockon deal: The Times reports, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn agreed last night to press on with Brexit talks as the prime minister spelt out a new route to reaching a deal in the Commons. The party leaders held a short meeting in parliament after Mrs May updated MPs on the latest Brexit delay.

The Times: Jacob Rees-Mogg’s sister to stand for Farage’s Brexit Party

Annunziata Rees-Mogg told the party’s launch in Coventry that she had been a member of the Conservatives since 1984 but that Brexit was a “fight we must win”. Last year Mr Rees-Mogg was quoted describing his younger sister as “my Brexit conscience who ensures I do not go soft”.

Roger Cohen: Brexit heads for that riveting black hole: Brexit could still happen. But for the first time the odds on it happening are no better than even.

Brexit exposes painful disconnect between England and Britain: The split can be traced back to the Blair government’s election in 1997 on a commitment to parcel out powers. https://bloom.bg/2UQh0Nx
 
Can Brexit Britain still laugh at itself? The British pride themselves on their GSOH — but what happens when politicians are in on the joke? https://on.ft.com/2KuLbpD

One of Coldwar Steve's dystopian photomontages of modern Britain; he posted this one on Twitter in March.

Greece eyes 16+1 group of China and eastern European states: FT reports, move comes in spite of European Commission’s branding of China as ‘systemic rival.’

The move comes as the European Commission branded Beijing a “systemic rival” and was alarmed by Italy’s decision to become the first G7 country to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure investment drive. 

DISRUPTION

Digital-native retailers are giving physical stores a radical makeover: Online brands are opening brick-and-mortar shops, using technology and data-driven customer insights to transform the in-store experience. http://bit.ly/2UQ3Dgq

The best brands work seamlessly offline and online.

Who comes to the rescue of stranded robots? Humans: Food-delivery robots are everywhere, but they often need some help from softhearted humans when their navigation goes awry. https://on.wsj.com/2ULGjk0

The basic questions about universal basic income: After years of hype, UBI could become a large-scale reality. But first, policymakers and businesses will have to address fundamental implementation issues.

Why successful men are meditating and trading beer for green juice: WSJ reports, wellness—the umbrella term for everything from meditation to yoga to moringa oil—is no longer just for women. Increasingly men (and businesses) are getting juiced about holistic health.

Wellness was a Brigadoon Sundance 2019 topic, just sayin'. 

POLITICS

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Frontloaded primary schedule suggests the possibility of an early Democratic knockout http://bit.ly/2UQ3lpQ

-- The size of the Democratic field, combined with the party’s proportional allocation of delegates and other factors, raises the possibility of a very long nomination process that may not be decided until the convention.

-- However, the voting calendar is so frontloaded that a nominee may emerge relatively early in the process.


Trump 2020 challengers dodge wall street and corporate donors: The money race in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is more Walmart than Tiffany so far. The biggest war chests mostly have been amassed in increments of $200 or less, and primarily online, Bloomberg reports. Candidates are making a virtue of the modesty of their average donation -- as low as $20 -- while swearing off deep-pocketed donors, who are increasingly a liability with their base. 

LAT: Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the hottest thing in politics. Can it last? 

COMMERCE

Elizabeth Holmes’ failed Theranos was just granted 5 new patents in 2019: CB Insights reports, after being accused of years of fraud, Theranos officially shut down in September 2018. But in March of this year — and just a few months after its death — the company was granted its first blood-testing patent of 2019. Since then, Theranos has been granted 4 additional patents.

Chevron is acquiring independent exploration company Anadarko in a $33 billion deal.

Move is most significant consolidation since period of weaker oil prices began in 2014.

JD.com is rolling out wide-scale layoffs and closing most offices abroad to cut costs to cope with a slowing economy and rising competition. 

Disney unveils streaming service aimed at undercutting Netflix: FT reports, CEO Bob Iger expects five years of losses in bid to catch up with high-tech rivals.

Uber maintains heavy spending to keep rivals at bay: FT reports, ride-hailing app’s ‘winner-takes-all’ strategy will continue to cost billions.

Data from Uber’s IPO prospectus:

Uber will offer ample employment opportunities for lawyers for years to come. Among the legal risks it points to: “a number of inquiries, investigations, and requests for information” coming from the US Department of Justice, along with other agencies from the US and other countries. 

$860 million possible: Travis Kalanick, the former chief executive and co-founder who still sits on Uber’s board, holds an 8.6 percent stake in the company.

How big Uber can get: The company laid out several total addressable markets for its different businesses, adding up to more than $12tn in market opportunity it hopes to disrupt.

- Personal mobility: $5.7tn, consisting of “all passenger vehicle miles and all public transportation miles in all countries globally” totaling 11.9tn miles

- UberEats: $2.8tn, the amount consumers spend at restaurants

- Freight: $3.8tn, the market for freight trucking in 2017


The Times: Uber warns it may never make profit

The world’s largest taxi-hailing company revealed that it made a $3 billion operating loss last year.

Grab faces $2bn payout to Uber if no IPO by 2023: Nikkei reports, US ride-hailer has redemption right according to prospectus.

LAT: Amazon’s entry into the satellite internet market sets up another faceoff between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk

CULTURE

Idris Elba is DJing at Coachella.

LAT: Fancy Chinese food is here to stay — and it's about time

If the Chinese Communist Party was smart, it would spend $1 billion supporting chefs and use premium Chinese food as a soft power tool.

I've never understood why Beijing hasn't propped up a high-end food joint in NYC.


'Clean' Chinese food by white restaurateur prompts outrage: NYT reports, the uproar over a restaurant in Manhattan has become the latest front in the debate over cultural appropriation. Arielle Haspel defended her concept and menu, while acknowledging some errors in presenting them.

Jonah Hill: from ‘Superbad’ to serious director: The actor-turned-auteur talks about Scorsese, skateboarding and why his debut feature ‘Mid90s’ is a ‘string of pearls.’ https://on.ft.com/2KwOqNu

Is the Hudson Valley turning into the Hamptons? NYT reports, developers have discovered the once-sleepy Catskills and are building million-dollar homes there. And now there’s a bus service modeled after the Hampton Jitney.

SPORT

ABB FIA Formula E championship powers away after a slow start: FT reports, a friendly collision with F1 looms as the electric racing series gains sponsors and fans.

Now into its fifth season, the ABB FIA Formula E championship features 13 races across five continents, with leading carmakers such as Audi, BMW, Nissan and Jaguar competing in the series.

Sunday: Formula 1's 2019 Chinese Grand Prix @ 2:10 am ET. The race will take place at the Shanghai International Circuit, Shanghai, China.