Red Bull, Sri Lanka, Lunar Landing, Trump Approval, Kroger, Naples

Red Bull, Sri Lanka, Lunar Landing, Trump Approval, Kroger, Naples

Caracal Global Daily
April 22, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ Actor who played a president is elected Ukraine’s leader

✔️ Gallup presidential job approval: Trump +6

✔️ Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts enters 2020 Dem race

✔️ Tiffany announces Beverly Hills pop-up restaurant

✔️ Naples, Florida, metro tops US in wellbeing

ROSS RANT

Ross Rant: Red Bull wasn't created by economists

"Marketing is the science of knowing what economists are wrong about."  -- Rory Sutherland

As a means to beat Coca-Cola, no economist would approve of an expensive beverage, served in a small can, and tastes awful.

An economist using logic, facts, and numbers would never greenlight Red Bull.

But Red Bull has changed the global beverage market forever and altered the way Coca-Cola operates permanently.

Austria beating Atlanta is the playbook of how products and ideas will win going forward.

Energy drinks have transitioned from being a niche product to one of the fastest growing segments in the global drinks market. The global energy drinks market now stands at $55 billion and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.7% from 2018 through 2023.

How troubling is this for Coke? 

Consider the first energy drink under the Coca-Cola brand will launch in Europe this month.

Coca-Cola Energy, which will debut in Spain and Hungary, features caffeine from naturally-derived sources, guarana extracts, B vitamins, and no taurine – sounds like Red Bull but with a Coca-Cola taste. 

And not surprisingly, Coca-Cola Energy will be offered in 250-ml cans, just like Red Bull.

The economists of Atlanta are following the entrepreneurship of Austria.

Economists assume most decision making is driven by logic. 

This is flawed.

Using logic to make a decision is called System 2 thinking. 

But most decision making is driven by emotion. 

This is called System 1 thinking.

Facts and numbers don’t drive our decision making. 

Facts take a back seat to emotional responses. 

Numbers with no context and color are no match for actual experiences. 

Great marketers understand the power of ubiquitous and unconscious System 1 decision making to sell products or shape ideas.

Sutherland believes, "Once you reach a basic level of wealth in society, most problems are actually problems of perception.”

The role of a business is to create value by solving problems for customers.

As I move through life, it is clear you don’t always need to solve difficult technical challenges with massive and costly technical solutions.

You need to communicate with a customer to see things from a different, more indirect point of view.

Acknowledging the importance of perception well better position your brand and improve communications.

When it comes to entrepreneurship and thought leadership, one is bigger than two.

-Marc

Marc A. Ross specializes in thought leader strategy for executives and entrepreneurs working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
 

GLOBALIZATION

Sri Lanka Easter attacks: Sri Lankan officials believe an Islamist militant group was behind the Easter morning attacks that killed at least 290 people and wounded another 500.

Attackers may have had help from Isis: The Times reports, the Sri Lankan authorities has this morning blamed a small, little-known local Islamist group, National Thowheeth Jama’ath or NTJ, for the Easter Day bombings. 

Actor who played a president is elected Ukraine’s leader: WSJ reports, Ukrainians elected a comedian with no political experience as their new president Sunday in a damning verdict on their ruling class five years after a violent pro-Western revolution, exit polls showed.

Comedian who played a president on TV will be president of Ukraine: NYT reports, Volodymyr Zelensky won a landslide victory, making an actor with no government or military experience the commander in chief of a country at war.

Wolfgang Münchau: Realism is set to strike the EU over the Brexit timescale: Germany is gaining a wider consensus on a hard deadline. Macron is winning the argument.

Nikkei: Solomon Islands' next prime minister faces choice over Taiwan ties

Taipei's few remaining allies waver in the face of China's investment promises.

The parliament of the Solomon Islands will hold a vote Wednesday to choose a new prime minister against a backdrop of political strife regarding the South Pacific country's diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

China to showcase growing naval power with parade at sea: FT reports, event aimed at building ties with other militaries and inspiring national pride.

Trade deal alone won’t fix US-China business relations: WSJ reports, even as a US-China trade accord apparently nears completion, rattled businesses on both sides of the Pacific are skittish about rushing back in to revive the once-booming investment activity between the two countries.

#Correct

To survive trade battles, China manufacturers deploy every weapon they can: Reuters reports, manufacturers in China facing trade barriers are deploying an array of moves to try to keep foreign customers - giving discounts, tapping tax breaks, trimming workforces and, occasionally, shifting production overseas to skirt tariffs.

FT: Fatal fever ravages China’s pig farms and shakes global food markets

Pork prices forecast to soar as deaths from disease expected to reach 130m.

Jokowi's election win sets up Indonesia political free-for-all: Nikkei reports, playing field has been leveled for politicians with ambitions for 2024.

US plans to eliminate sanctions waivers on Iranian oil: FT reports, fuel prices rise as China, India, and Japan among nations pressured to find other sources.

DISRUPTION

Driving is so 1980s: In a challenge for Detroit, teens put off getting their licenses and buying cars. About a quarter of 16-year-olds had a driver’s license in 2017, a sharp decline from nearly half in 1983. 

AI could boost our intelligence, but will we misuse it?Theoretical neuroscientist and entrepreneur Vivienne Ming believes it’s inevitable, but warns that our use of AI could have unintended consequences. http://bit.ly/2VjeO1m

A new race to the moon? US wants to lead the way: Half a century after the first lunar landing, a new race to the moon may be underway. The United States is out to win again. What are the Russians hoping for? And is there a role for the rest of the world? http://bit.ly/2VgAnQe

POLITICS

Gallup presidential job approval: (Apr 1-9)

Trump approval: 

45%
+6

Trump disapproval: 

51%
-6

Spring 2019 Harvard IOP youth poll results: 

By election day 2020, the Millennial and Gen Z generations will represent more than a third of eligible voters. As indicated by the unprecedented youth turnout in the 2018 midterm election, the youth vote is likely to play a historic role in the upcoming primary and general elections. The poll finds that political engagement is heightened compared to this point in the 2016 contest.  

- The youth vote -- especially young Democrats -- is poised to play an even more significant role in 2020 than in the 2016 presidential contest.

- Generational conflict between young voters and Baby Boomers is brewing.

- Protecting the environment is now central to both domestic and foreign policy agendas of young Americans

- Half of young Americans experience anxiety, and it is correlated with views related to state of our nation.

To defend against Trump, aides wield the pen as a shield: NYT reports, the Mueller Report made clear that Trump is not fond of written records of meetings and conversations, some of which have now come back to haunt him. Note-taking has become a way for aides to protect themselves from Trump.

Democrats see grounds for impeachment in Mueller report as Trump allies claim exoneration: LAT reports, Rudy Giuliani says there is nothing wrong with accepting help from Russia, while Rep. Adam Schiff says Trump's actions were worse than Watergate.

Top Democrats leave open option of Trump impeachment after Mueller report: Reuters reports, top congressional Democrats left the door open on Sunday to the impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump, but said they would first need to complete their own investigations into whether he obstructed justice in Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe.

Why American CEOs are worried about capitalism: Fearing a backlash against business if a Democrat wins the White House, some chief executives are pushing for pre-emptive reforms. https://on.ft.com/2VlZykg

US billionaires worry about the survival of capitalism: For the first time in decades, US politicians and members of the business elite are debating whether American-style capitalism has a future. https://wapo.st/2VgjTaU

Business leaders voice support for climate activists who shut down capital: Business leaders have voiced their support for Extinction Rebellion, the environmental protest group that shut down parts of London last week, calling for an “urgent redesign” of global industry in a letter to The Times.

Trump’s washing machine tariffs stung consumers while lifting corporate profits: NYT reports, new research shows how a move meant to aid domestic manufacturers instead padded profits and raised prices on a wide variety of laundry items.

"Estimates that consumers bore between 125 percent and 225 percent of the costs of the washing machine tariffs. The authors calculate that the tariffs brought in $82 million to the United States Treasury, while raising consumer prices by $1.5 billion."

Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts enters 2020 Democratic presidential race: WSJ reports, the Iraq War veteran, who unsuccessfully opposed Nancy Pelosi, is the 19th Democratic candidate to join the campaign. 

Rep. Moulton (D-MA) is a fourth tier candidate.

Current Caracal Global 2020 Presidential Candidates ranked by tier: http://bit.ly/2KS9pdG

Gallup: Climate change concerns higher in the Northeast, West US

- Southerners, Midwesterners less likely to say global warming has begun

- Worries about global warming higher in the East and West

COMMERCE

FT: FCC chair opposes China Mobile’s effort to enter US market

Ajit Pai urges telecoms watchdog to vote against company’s application next month.

Renault launches new Nissan integration bid: Japanese automaker set to reject proposal from alliance partner.

Kroger is adjusting operations and investing in technology to try to hang on to customers who no longer like to buy their food in stores. 

Flashback: Ross Rant: Cincinnati, we have a problem: Jeff Bezos has long sought to redefine, refocus, and recalibrate the consumer shopping experience. It isn’t so much that Bezos wants to sell more high-end kombucha or grass-fed beef — he wants Amazon to own more and more of consumer spending while at the same time providing endless options, lower prices, and frictionless delivery. http://bit.ly/2KVeNwN

Bed Bath & Beyond has announced a series of changes to its board, including the appointment of five new independent directors, as the retailer faces pressure from activist investors to turn around its operations. 

FT: US airline JetBlue ups ante in battle for transatlantic

London to New York route is fiercely competitive and littered with failures.

LAT: Tiffany & Co. announces Beverly Hills pop-up restaurant

Grab to integrate public transport data in Southeast Asian mega-cities.

Samsung Electronics delays Galaxy Fold media events in China: Reuters reports, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd has postponed media events for its Galaxy Fold planned for this week in Hong Kong and Shanghai, a company official said, days after reviewers of the foldable handset reported defective samples.

Reuters: Huawei says launches 'world's first' 5G communications hardware for autos

CULTURE

Naples, Florida, metro tops US in wellbeing for fourth time: Gallup reports, for the fourth straight year, the Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Florida, metro area had the highest wellbeing across 156 U.S. communities, based on data collected in 2017 and 2018 as part of the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index. Salinas, California; Boulder, Colorado; Santa Rosa, California; and Ann Arbor, Michigan round out the top five metro areas.

Ghana, North Korea, Robot Delivery, William Barr, Uber, Champion, ‘Drake Curse’

Ghana, North Korea,  Robot Delivery, William Barr, Uber, Champion, ‘Drake Curse’

Caracal Global Daily
April 19, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ Ghana is world's fastest growing economy

✔️ Carmakers eye the moon

✔️ AG Barr will hold a presser on the Mueller report at 9:30 am ET

✔️ Daimler invests $100m in battery start-up

✔️ How the ‘Drake curse’ became a thing in sports

ROSS RANT

Business Schools = Less Math and Management. More Policy and Politics.

With an endless news cycle, a continuous flow of global trade, protectionist laws, and committed geopolitical powers, global politics and global business is being shaped from many directions and far beyond a nation’s borders and a company’s boardroom. Decisions made in Beijing now affect events in Brussels which in turn compels policy in Ottawa and then again impacting Santiago.

The ability to manage this dynamic, globalized political environment, particularly at the intersection of public policy global business, coupled with an underlying cultural phenomenon rejecting the establishment, this new environment is more challenging for business leaders and global companies.

The pace involved in addressing global business challenges has increased as well as, with the scale of the problems expanding to an ever-growing globally diverse network of stakeholders. Disenfranchised and left-behind voters around the world have spoken and demanded a greater share of the profits. The traditional capitalist ideal of being responsible solely to shareholders in under threat and business going forward will involve numerous stakeholders, including governments, media, bloggers, consumers, non-governmental organizations, investors, employees, and citizens.

For future business leaders, simply put, there are a lot more people that will hold you accountable and want a say in the process. Having a genius marketing plan and solid accounting skills won’t be enough.

The time is now for MBA programs to recognize this challenging global public affairs environment. It is critical that classes utilize case studies that explore the nexus between multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations, government officials, institutions, investors, and recent elections.

World-class business leaders will need to excel with a foundation of fundamental business management skills, but they must be equally deft at grasping the intersection of history, politics, geography, culture, and economics to manage this new global business paradigm.

MBA programs must prepare future business leaders with the hard and soft skills to understand and engage global problems, comprehend economic development challenges and opportunities, and connect how these issues spread in a globally interconnected marketplace all influencing and disrupting global politics and global business like never before.

-Marc

GLOBALIZATION

The world's fastest growing economy is located in Africa: Ghana's economic strength is expected to soar in 2019. Many other African countries lag far behind, says the IMF report. http://bit.ly/2Va0AzO

The IMF talks of a growth rate of 8.8% in its World Economic Outlook, which would make Ghana the fastest growing economy in the world in 2019. Last year, the country's economy only grew by 5.6%, putting it in sixth position.

AP: NKorea says it tested new weapon, wants Pompeo out of talks

North Korea said Thursday that it had test-fired a new type of “tactical guided weapon,” its first such test in nearly half a year, and demanded that Washington remove Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from nuclear negotiations.

430,000: Japan's population is shrinking by the equivalent of a medium-sized city each year due to a rapidly declining birth rate. The native-born Japanese population fell by 430,000 in 2018, while 161,000 migrants entered the country, partially offsetting that loss.

China and Japan inch closer for insurance against Hurricane Trump: Nikkei reports, Asia's two biggest economies accelerate diplomacy but produce few results.

Trump stirs alarm that he may be giving China a new trade weapon: Bloomberg reports, details of the US commitments and how the enforcement mechanism will operate remain scant. But Mnuchin’s comments have caused plenty of raised eyebrows from legal scholars to the business community and Congress. If the US allows China reciprocal enforcement powers, it would make China “judge, jury and executioner as to whether we have honored our obligations,’’ said Daniel Price, who served as a senior economic adviser to President George W. Bush and is now at Rock Creek Global Advisors in Washington. “I don’t think the US business community is sufficiently alert to the risk of constantly being exposed to unilateral enforcement action by China.”

US firms no longer 'positive anchor' for Beijing ties: AmCham in China: Reuters reports, Frustrated US businesses can no longer be counted on as a “positive anchor” in US-China relations, a top US business lobby said on Wednesday, arguing any deal to end trade tensions must address structural problems in China’s economic system.

"The media is getting very excited about the fact that Chinese GDP data was somewhat stronger than expected. This data is presented with all the quality and accuracy we have come to expect from China. China's GDP is not necessarily very important to the global economy – it is the integration, not the size of an economy that gives it global importance." --- UBS' Paul Donovan

US and China set tentative timeline for new trade talks: WSJ reports, the US and China have tentatively scheduled meetings as they seek to close out a trade deal, with negotiators aiming for a signing ceremony as soon as late May.

State Department approves new deal with Taiwan for F-16 training, maintenance: UPI reports, the US State Department has approved a $500 million possible contract renewal for training of Taiwanese F-16 pilots and maintenance support. 

Army secretary reveals weapons wish list for war with China and Russia: Defense One reports, US Army leaders revealed Tuesday that they are briefing top military commanders about new weapons being built specifically for “high-intensity conflict” against China and Russia, in a new effort to assure that they could provide vital firepower for those potential battlefields of the future. 

Poland and US closing in on deal to build ‘Fort Trump,’ sources say: Bloomberg reports, Poland is nearing a deal with the US to establish an American military base in the former Communist bloc country, according to people familiar with the matter -- an outpost the Poles see as a deterrent to Russian aggression and that the Kremlin would likely consider a provocation. 

Trudeau challenged: Alberta became the third major Canadian province over the past year to elect a conservative-leaning government. The trend threatens to check Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party agenda as he prepares to face the electorate later this year, trailing in the polls.

US-Canada rift widens over training for 737 MAX pilots: WSJ reports, a rift between the US and Canada is growing over how to ensure the safety of Boeing’s grounded 737 MAX planes, as Ottawa’s focus on additional pilot training could lead to a delay in getting the jet back in the air.

Bogota the new city of spies: Geopolitical crises tend to create unexpected centers of refuge and espionage: West Berlin in the Cold War, Amman, Jordan in the buildup to the conflict in Iraq. Now a shift in the world’s attention to Venezuela — which has seen the departure of US diplomats and an influx of Russian military advisers — has made neighboring Colombia's capital, Bogota, a proxy battleground thronged with mercenaries, agents and clandestine operations.

FT: Moderate Conservatives eye challenge for party leadership

Amber Rudd says it is ‘entirely possible’ she could run as One Nation candidate.

Bloomberg: Brexit delay spurs UK frenzy for summer breaks in EU

Brexit: How it came to this: How the Irish backstop emerged as May's Brexit nemesis. Ireland was streets ahead of the UK when it came to planning for Britain’s exit. http://bit.ly/2Vc8gBF

The roots of the UK’s political and constitutional crisis spread far and wide: decades of anti-EU propaganda, a Tory party civil war, a reckless Cameron gamble, a dogged, blinkered successor, a divided Labour party. And with a starring role, the backstop.

Ted: Facebook's role in Brexit - and the threat to democracy: In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past? Watch - here. 

DISRUPTION

Carmakers eye the moon: The next frontier for carmakers could be the moon. China’s BAIC Group is developing joint technology with the country’s Lunar Exploration Project for lunar exploration. Toyota is also teaming up with Japan’s space agency to build a lunar rover, expecting to put it on the moon by 2029. 

The coming obsolescence of animal meat: Companies are racing to develop real chicken, fish, and beef that don’t require killing animals. Here’s what’s standing in their way. http://bit.ly/2KLdxw7
 
HBR: Does higher education still prepare people for jobs?http://bit.ly/2KMlW2t

'More and more students are spending more and more money on higher education, and their main goal is largely pragmatic: to boost their employability and be a valuable contributor to the economy. Even if the value attached to a university degree is beneficial to those who obtain it, companies can help change the narrative by putting less weight on “higher education” as a measure of intellectual competence and job potential, and instead, approach hiring with more open-mindedness."

French supermarket tests robot delivery: Reuters reports, Casino’s Franprix chain will test the delivery robots on the streets of Paris’s 13th arrondissement for a year. In the French capital, where Amazon has been running its Amazon Prime Now express delivery service since 2016, the speedy and convenient delivery of food has become a battleground among retailers.

POLITICS

Mueller report will be lightly redacted, offering detailed look at Trump’s actions: WP reports, the report is said to show that the special counsel decided he could not come to a conclusion on obstruction because it was difficult to determine the president’s intent.

Mueller Report: Attorney General William Barr will hold a press briefing on the Mueller report at 9:30 am, with Congress expected to receive the report between 11:00 am and noon.

Enjoy the ride and plan accordingly.

The White House already knows some of the details of the report.

Pelosi, Schumer call for Mueller to testify ‘as soon as possible’: WP reports, the Democratic leaders criticized Attorney General William P. Barr for his handling of the special counsel’s report.

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry is planning to leave the Trump administration.

In some US counties, more than 40 percent of all arrests are for marijuana possession.

FT: Sanders leads Democrats in fundraising for 2020 race

Contenders build up war chests to challenge Trump for US presidency.

2020 defense: Twenty-two House districts represented by freshman Democrats that Trump won in 2016 are emerging as key battlegrounds for both parties, as Republicans seek to regain ground in a presidential election year and Democrats try to extend the majority they won in 2018.

COMMERCE

Daimler invests $100m in Californian battery start-up: FT reports, the German carmaker announces move for 10 per cent stake as part of electric vehicles push.

Uber nears investment deal for self-driving car unit: WSJ reports, $1 billion investment by group including SoftBank would value division at $7.25 billion.

Some drivers for Uber in DC found it ‘unsustainable,’ study finds: WP reports, the Georgetown University study conducted in 2016 found 33 percent of drivers fell into a “debt trap” working for the ride-hailing service, taking on debt to drive, and all of them lamented its “slippery” wage.

Champion - owned by HanesBrands — hit jackpot, as the teens have bestowed their favor upon it. Last year Champion booked $1.4 billion in sales, and the company hopes to dial those up to $2 billion by 2022. Male teens consider it a top-15 brand, and Champion is worn by 9 percent of upper income boys and 5 percent of girls

Everlane jumps into the $20 billion US sneaker market: Bloomberg reports, the startup famous for environmentally conscious clothing is going after planet-friendly sneaker heads.

FT: Blackstone to ditch partnership structure and become corporation

CULTURE

'It's an absurd profession': the world's most infamous bouncers tell all: Guardian reports, they have a fearsome reputation for excluding eager clubbers – but as a documentary about Berlin’s doormen is released, three of them explain why their policies are ‘all about tolerance.’

See the trailer for Berlin Bouncer - here. 

Caroline Bullock: Flexible working for parents is great. But child-free people need it, too: The office-bound 9-5 job is an anachronism. All workers, whatever their family status, need greater control over their lives. http://bit.ly/2KUp6Bk

Selfie seaths are an epidemic: Outside reports, a recent report found that 259 people died between 2011 and 2017 while stepping in front of the camera in often dangerous destinations. Our writer went deep on the psychology of selfies to figure out what's behind our obsession with capturing extreme risk-taking.

How Paris firefighters saved Notre Dame: Decisions to focus on belfries and to dial back water pressure were key to preserving structure and artwork. https://on.wsj.com/2VfRX77

The chaplain, the cathedral fire and the race to rescue Notre-Dame’s relics: By the time the Paris Fire Department’s chaplain made his way inside Notre-Dame, flames had already consumed most of the cathedral’s roof and its spire had smashed onto the nave. “I had two priorities: to save the crown of thorns and a statue of Jesus,” Father Fournier said. https://nyti.ms/2KOcLyu

"It was a task emergency workers had prepared for. Firefighters held exercises focused on saving its treasures."

Candice Carty-Williams: 'The swag is limitless': why Beyoncé's Beychella Homecoming film is so radical: The singer’s Coachella concert documentary reveals her intimate humanity, celebrates the culture that built her, ousts stereotypes and redefines blackness. 

See the trailer for Homecoming: A Film By Beyoncé - here. 

SPORT

Cracking his whip, musher Michael Inuarak keeps his dog team in line as he prepares to take part in the annual Nunavut Quest. CBC reports, for the past few weeks, the 22-year-old Inuarak has been preparing for the Quest — a gruelling, weeklong traditional dog sled race where competitors traverse an unforgiving sea of ice and tundra. This year, the race starts in Inuarak's hometown of Pond Inlet and ends more than 300 kilometres away in Arctic Bay. Running a dog team is about family and keeping the Inuit way of life strong, Inuarak said. "My happiest moment was dog sledding with two of my other brothers and my grandfather, all at the same time," he said. "That's what I always wanted to do — run my dogs with my family." http://bit.ly/2KIUsdX

Alliance of American Football files for bankruptcy: WSJ reports, the Alliance of American Football, a professional football league that suspended operations after less than two months of competition, has filed for bankruptcy.

How the ‘Drake curse’ became a thing in sports https://lat.ms/2L24Ldp

Champions League - Final Four:

Ajax
Barcelona
Tottenham Hotspur 
Liverpool

Tottenham v Ajax: 30 April + 8 May
Barcelona v Liverpool: 1 + 7 May

Ajax (NED) | UEFA ranking: 20: They dethroned champions Real Madrid, and then stopped Cristiano Ronaldo in his tracks, so what else is left to fear?

Barcelona (ESP) | UEFA ranking: 2: Messi has never had to wait more than four years between European titles – why start now?

Liverpool (ENG) | UEFA ranking: 12: Last season's runners-up have lost none of their attacking edge, but now have added steel at the back.

Tottenham (ENG) | UEFA ranking: 18:  Having eliminated both Dortmund and Manchester City, this looks to be a side primed for knockout football.

How Pep Guardiola lost control of the Champions League: Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola helped set new standards for what is possible in English soccer, but his squads have failed to get anywhere in Europe. https://on.wsj.com/2V1b5Wj

Notre Dame, US-EU Trade Deal, Braveheart Myth, ‘Bernie or Bust’, Ajax

Notre Dame, US-EU Trade Deal, Braveheart Myth, ‘Bernie or Bust’, Ajax

Caracal Global Daily
April 17, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Caracal Global Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ France vows to restore Notre Dame

✔️ The future's electric at the Shanghai Auto Show

✔️ ‘Bernie or Bust’ voters create predicament for Democrats in 2020

✔️ SpaceX is raising another $500 million in funding

✔️ Destination divorce parties are a new Las Vegas trend

ROSS RANT

Does trade cause politics or does politics cause trade?

Yes.
 

GLOBALIZATION

After taxing rescue, France vows to restore Notre Dame; ‘Make it even more beautiful’: WSJ reports, after a frantic effort by firefighters to save Notre Dame Cathedral, President Emmanuel Macron pledged that France would rebuild one of its most cherished monuments within five years. France’s private sector promised to donate hundreds of millions of dollars to the restoration.

The Times: Backlash grows over Notre Dame donations

Yellow-vest anger at generosity of Macron’s “rich friends.”

Pentagon developing military options to deter Russian, Chinese influence in Venezuela: CNN reports, the deterrence options are being ordered following a White House meeting last week where national security adviser John Bolton told acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan to develop ideas on the Venezuela crisis. 

OTD: In 1961 about 1,500 CIA-trained Cuban exiles landed in the Bay of Pigs, Cuba.

USS Ross heads to the Black Sea as US and allies increase patrols: Stars & Stripes reports, the destroyer USS Ross entered the Black Sea on Sunday night, the fourth time this year the Navy has sent a warship to the region. 

That's a fine ship.

US-EU trade deal: EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom has urged a trade deal with the US by 1 November. The EU wants a trade deal that covers industrial goods only. The French objected as EU rules state that trade deals can only be done with countries that have signed up to the Paris climate accord.

US handbags, shovels on $20 billion EU tariff list over Boeing: Reuters reports, handbags, tractors, shovels, and fish are part of an 11-page list of US imports worth $20 billion that the European Union on Wednesday said it could hit with tariffs in a transatlantic aircraft subsidy dispute.

Tusk ‘dreams’ of Brexit reversal: FT reports, the president of the European Council said he would not ‘give into fatalism’ about the Brexit process

Alex Massie: Brexiteers have fallen for Braveheart myth: Tory Leavers are making a big mistake if, like SNP activists, they think that appeals to nationalism will win the day.

FT: City of London cements dominance of renminbi trading

Average daily trading volumes of the Chinese currency in London reached £76.6 billion.

Xi loyalty app: China's state-run CCTV is hiring hundreds of people to ramp up a mobile app used to test Communist Party members’ loyalty to President Xi Jinping and the party. Dubbed “Study the Powerful Country,” the app has become a major topic of conversation among bureaucrats and party officials who are required to download it — with some spending hours racking up points.

China economic activity: China’s economic growth held to a 6.4% rate in the first three months of the year as factory production picked up significantly.

Few pros think this is a real number.

China’s economy stabilizes after Beijing opens the bank vaults: NYT reports, China’s economy stabilized in the first three months of the year, according to official figures released on Wednesday, after Beijing flooded the financial system with money in a whatever-it-takes approach to arrest a slowdown.

China goes all-in on home grown tech in push for nuclear dominance: Reuters reports, China plans to gamble on the bulk deployment of its untested “Hualong One” nuclear reactor, squeezing out foreign designs, as it resumes a long-delayed nuclear program aimed at meeting its clean energy goals, government and industry officials said.

Martin Wolf: China battles the US in the artificial intelligence arms race: What counts is implementation not innovation, and here the Chinese have big advantages. https://on.ft.com/2KLgYTi

Louise Lucas: US and China tech giants look increasingly similar: There is an inconvenient likeness between the main protagonists in both countries. https://on.ft.com/2KGGRUm

"It would be too much to suggest that US tech is taking a chapter or two from China’s playbook. But there is an increasingly inconvenient similarity between the main protagonists in the US and China."

FT: Australian university signs A$100m China deal despite concerns

Monash University, has signed a A$100m deal with China, despite the country’s decision to tighten foreign investment rules last year amid concerns over growing Chinese influence. The Monash deal, which will allow Chinese investors and local governments to commercialise its scientific breakthroughs.

Foxconn's Gou announces bid for Taiwan's presidency in 2020.

US and Japan agree to accelerate trade talks: FT reports, Lighthizer and Japan’s economy minister are set to meet again as early as next week.

Nikkei: Jokowi on track to win Indonesia presidential election: pollsters

Incumbent stops short of claiming victory; rival Prabowo says he won. 

DISRUPTION

The future's electric at the Shanghai Auto Show: Bloomberg reports, There’s electricity in the air at the China auto show in Shanghai this week, as the battery-car brigade rolls into town like never before. Established global makers and dozens of local startups are rushing to showcase electric-vehicle models in a push led by China, the world's largest car market. But there’s a dark side: While companies have plowed billions of dollars into development, projected EV sales may not be enough to keep the assembly lines moving, suggesting only a few companies will survive when the dust settles.

@web: Why Yeti is a strong lifestyle brand: 

- They chose a customer.
- They charge full price despite the half-price substitutes.
- You’ll find YETI stickers on laptops, trucks, boat windshields.
- It became a status symbol in just three years. 
- The products are excellent.

POLITICS

Trump fights back as he braces for Mueller report: FT reports, attorney-general to release redacted version of document into Russia election interference.

Trump vetoes resolution to end US participation in Yemen’s civil war: WP reports, the president called the measure “an unnecessary, dangerous attempt to weaken my constitutional authorities.” It had passed the House on a 247-to-175 vote and was approved by the Senate with the support of seven Republicans.

Trump cash: The Trump campaign and joint committees ended the first quarter with $48.9 million in the bank, more than three times as much as any of the potential challengers in a crowded Democratic field.

Morning Consult Political Intelligence: Tracking the 2020 Democratic primary: 

-- Buttigieg ticks up again: Now at 7% of the national vote, this marks his fourth straight week of growth.

-- Bernie Sanders holds a strong lead with young voters: 41% of18-29 year-old women and 39% of 18-29 year-old men support Sanders as their first choice.

-- If Biden doesn't run, Sanders has the most to gain: A projection based on second choice vote shows that Sanders would pick up 12 points if Biden opts not to run, enough to give him a 23 point first place lead.

Bloomberg: ‘Bernie or Bust’ voters create predicament for Democrats in 2020

Thomas B. Edsall: If Trump country soars, will the president glide to a second term? The rate of job growth in Republican-leaning regions is outstripping the rate in more Democratic areas.

Jonathan Bernstein: Is Trump's weakness an electoral advantage? The president has been largely unable to transform his ideas into policy. Conceivably, voters might be thankful.

Doyle McManus: Pete Buttigieg has everything except positions on major issues 

COMMERCE

Consumers around the world are spending less on almost everything. Even booze. WP reports, Consumers around the world are likely to spend more cautiously in the coming months amid political and economic uncertainty, according to a new report that surveyed shoppers in 64 countries. Shoppers said they have cut back on clothing and entertainment costs in the past year, and have taken measures to save on gas and electricity, according to the Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. Consumers in Europe and Latin America are buying cheaper alcohol and groceries, while Asian shoppers are scaling back their annual vacations.

Andrea Felsted: L'Oreal shows the Lipstick Index lives in China: L’Oreal’s strong sales in Asia show that, even in China, demand for cosmetics can weather difficult economic conditions.

SpaceX funding: Elon Musk's SpaceX is raising another $500 million in funding, four months after raking in a similar amount. The new cash could help SpaceX speed up the development of its Starlink satellite Internet business, which is supposed to support the company's bottom line in the future.

10 years after its founding, SpaceX had 0% market share. 16 years after its founding, it had more than 50%. 

Uber's top five: Based on Uber’s S-1 filing, the company conceded that a full 24 percent of its business in 2018 was derived from just five cities: LA, New York, San Francisco, London, and São Paulo

Netflix added 30 million net new subscribers last year as it became the most popular television streaming service on the planet.

Nokia, the 1990s cellphone pioneer, wants to topple Huawei: WSJ reports, it is trying to expand in the U.S. and China at the same time, steering a path through a global technology showdown.

Apple and Qualcomm settle all disputes worldwide: NYT reports, for the past two years, Apple and Qualcomm have dueled on three continents over the division of billions of dollars of smartphone profits and even how much consumers pay for their phones. On Tuesday, just as a trial had begun in a federal courtroom in San Diego over a suit Apple had filed against Qualcomm, the two companies said they had essentially made up.

Nikkei: Apple and Qualcomm settle dispute, paving way for 5G iPhone

Intel pulls out of 5G smartphone chips as iPhone maker commits to rival.

Reuters: Apple in talks with potential suppliers of sensors for self-driving cars - sources

CULTURE

Bloomberg: Destination divorce parties are a new Las Vegas trend

Mending a broken heart with clubs, cabarets, and machine guns.

Cannes 2019: 20 films we hope will be at the film festival: Ahead of the official lineup announcement on Thursday, we’re banking on Quentin Tarantino, Terrence Malick, Kelly Reichardt and Leos Carax making the final cut. http://bit.ly/2V26DGL

SPORT

The key to building a successful team: Researchers found that if a group has worked together effectively in the past, it can be more important than their individual skills. https://on.wsj.com/2KO5oqD

“Shared success is a distinguishing factor above and beyond skill,” says Brian Uzzi, a co-author of the study and a professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.

Shared success is a concept taken from psychology. The idea is that when groups experience success, individuals are better able to recall the event and articulate what went right or even what went wrong.

Champions League - Quarterfinals - 2nd Game:

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City (Aggregate 1-0) - Today @ 3:00 pm ET
Liverpool v Porto (Aggregate 2-0) - Today @ 3:00 pm ET

'Ajax, sensation of Europe': Dutch and Italian press react to Turin triumph: Guardian reports, the Dutch press exalted the long-awaited return of Ajax to the Champions League semi-finals but in Italy Juve were savaged.