Lithuania, Australia, New Zealand, Venezuela, Gambia

Lithuania, Australia, New Zealand, Venezuela, Gambia

Marc Ross Daily
February 18, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ Pence and Merkel offer contrasting visions of global security

✔️ War on plastic will dent oil demand

✔️ Obama quietly gives advice, but no endorsement

✔️ Northern Virginia is keeping Amazon’s 25,000 jobs

✔️ NBA announces new Africa basketball league

ROSS RANT

Bloomberg Sound ON: Trump tariffs, national emergency, and Amazon (Podcast): Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent Kevin Cirilli delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. Kevin discussed the fallout from Amazon’s decision to drop their NYC expansion plans, President Trump’s national emergency declaration to build a wall and the progress on trade talks with China with guests Marc Ross, founder of Caracal Global and Bloomberg News Congressional reporter Anna Edgerton. Listen here: https://bloom.bg/2SHtOFS

GLOBALIZATION

Pence and Merkel offer contrasting visions of global security: FT reports, discord and division between US and allies on show at Munich conference.

Trump policies unite allies against him at security forum: Reuters reports, in 2009, then Vice President Joe Biden came to Munich to "press the reset button" with Russia. A decade later he came again to offer the world better relations, this time with his own country.

WP: Trump foreign policy under attack from all sides at European security conference

Rana Foroohar: Donald Trump’s ill-timed rift with Europe: There is an opportunity for a new transatlantic alliance to benefit both US and EU.

Lithuanian spy case recalls Soviet-era practices: DW reports, Lithuania has been stunned by the arrest of a scion of the country’s most controversial political dynasty. The repercussions could impact the result of an ongoing trial in Vilnius. 

German export machine braced for global shocks: With free trade and open borders under threat, a debate on how to protect businesses is set to divide coalition politicians.https://on.ft.com/2SGZPhs

Trade war hits SE Asia, growth down for first time in 3 years: Nikkei reports, US-China dispute weighs on Singapore and Thailand economies in 2019.

FT: Data leak reveals China is tracking almost 2.6m people in Xinjiang

Security researcher’s discovery suggests extensive use of facial recognition.

NYT: Chinese and Iranian hackers renew cyberattacks on US companies

Dozens of corporations have been hit, including Boeing, T-Mobile andGeneral Electric, along with multiple US agencies, according to people briefed on the episodes.

Security experts believe the renewed aggression is a result of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal last year, and his recent trade conflict with China.

Australian political parties hit by cyber attack: FT reports, ‘sophisticated state actor’ to blame for intrusion just months before election, PM says.

Nikkei: 'State actor' hit Australian parliament in cyberattack, says PM

FT: Australia to fast-track UK trade pact in event of no-deal Brexit

Minister pours cold water on British ambition to join TPP.

New Zealand tourism faces Huawei backlash from China: Nikkei reports, Wellington's 5G snub puts the economy at risk, experts say.

Seven MPs resign from Labour in challenge to Corbyn: FT reports, split by pro-EU moderates comes ahead of crucial parliamentary votes on Brexit.

Scotland dreads Brexit. But is it enough to boost sentiment for Scottish independence? https://wapo.st/2N0hSc2

Saudi crown prince pledges $20bn to Pakistan: FT reports, Mohammed bin Salman kicks off tour that is expected to include India and China.

DW: US military planes carrying aid arrive near Venezuelanborder

As US amasses aid on Venezuelan border, Colombian city braces for showdown: WP reports, Cucuta, population 750,000, has for years been overwhelmed by the massive migration over its border. Now there is concern about a massive protest and a benefit concert set for next weekend.

Venezuela’s opposition reaches out to Russia and China: FT reports, Juan Guaidó wants to establish diplomatic ties with Nicolás Maduro’s biggest allies.

Bloomberg: Trump to ramp up pressure on Maduro to leave Venezuela

OTD: In 1965 the Gambia became independent from the UK.

Indian soldiers killed in clashes with militants: DW reports, a gunbattle with militants in disputed Kashmir has left four Indian troops dead. It comes just days after the worst attack on government forces in the region's history, to which India promised a "jaw-dropping" response.

DISRUPTION

Christof Ruhl: The war on plastic will dent oil demand more than anticipated: Companies are underestimating the importance of changed consumer attitudes.

POLITICS

Heather Nauert, who was Trump’s pick to serve as US ambassador to the UN, has withdrawn from consideration.

Timothy O'Brien: In Trump’s world, he never loses: His Rose Garden speech declaring a national emergency and his decades of self-aggrandizement are more closely related than you might think.https://bloom.bg/2DNeWLS

WP: Bill Weld defends decision to run against Trump, says Republicans ‘want to have no election’

@GovBillWeld: "It is time for all people of good will to take a stand and plant a flag...It's for this reason that I have today established an Exploratory Committee to pursue  the possibility for my running for the Presidency of the United States as a Republican in the 2020 election."

NYT: Obama quietly gives advice, but no endorsement, to Democrats

Former President Barack Obama has counseled more than a dozen candidates on how to win the White House in 2020 — but he has no plans to pick a favorite.

The discreet role he has taken on reflects his longstanding ambivalence about acting as a partisan political leader.

Minouche Shafik: Populists have a point, the system has to change: The economic insecurity and fears about identity that they exploit must be addressed.

THOUGHT LEADER TACTIC OF THE DAY

Submit four opinion editorials engaging both national and regional news outlets.

COMMERCE

FT - Editorial: The chastening fallout of Amazon’s hunt for HQ2: Companies and politicians can learn from the ill-fated New York deal.

WSJ: Amazon’s New York project foundered on labor organizing, opposition to subsidies

Amid backlash, talks to resolve differences failed to allay company’sgrowing unease.

LAT: Amazon's New York retreat heralds a new era of corporate welfare fights

Northern Virginia is keeping Amazon’s 25,000 jobs, and wants you to know it: NYT reports, Their message: Their region has its act together, they have been far more prepared, and they were free of drama.

Amazon’s New York ‘disaster’ reminds leaders to address gentrification https://wapo.st/2SWVBBx

In bid to conquer Oscars, Netflix mobilizes savvy campaigner and huge budget: NYT reports, Lisa Taback, who worked on awards campaigns for best picture winners like “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech,” is in charge of the lavish effort behind “Roma.”

Porsche customers in the UK should brace for a price hike of up to 10 percent in case of a hard Brexit, the carmaker warned.

Flybmi is shutting down due to rising fuel prices, carbon costs and uncertainty around Brexit.

Payless ShoeSource is closing its roughly 2,100 US locations in what is likely to be the largest-ever retailer liquidation by number of stores.

CULTURE

Israeli Film 'Synonyms' wins 2019 Berlinale Golden Bear award: DW reports, Nadav Lapid's quasi-autobiographical quest for identity on the silver screen takes the Golden Bear at the Berlinale 2019. Meanwhile, "So Long, My Son" by Chinese director Wang Xiaoshuai won two Silver Bear awards.

SPORT

Today: Chelsea play Manchester United in the FA Cup fifth round @ 2:30 pm ET

Female German referee causes Bundesliga broadcast to be canceled in Iran: DW reports, Iranian state TV did not broadcast a Bundesliga soccer match because of the presence of a woman as referee, media say. The Islamic country censors the showing of women in "revealing" clothes such as football shorts.

Barack Obama reportedly set for role with NBA-backed African basketball league: WP reports, the NBA is helping to establish a new professional basketball league in Africa and it has the enthusiastic support of Barack Obama. In fact, the former president will reportedly have a role with the league, although the extent of his involvement has yet to be announced. Over the weekend, before the NBA All-Star Game in Charlotte, the league announced a partnership with FIBA, basketball’s international governing body, to create the Basketball Africa League. Set to debut in 2020, the BAL will feature 12 teams from across the continent, with qualifying tournaments to be held later this year.

NBA announces new Africa basketball league: DW reports, the 12-team professional league in Africa will start playing in January 2020. The NBA said the new league will help develop basketball in Africa and create economic opportunities.

MOU, Munich Security Conference, Millennials, Michael Gianaris

MOU, Munich Security Conference, Millennials, Michael Gianaris 

Marc Ross Daily
February 15, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ Munich Security Conference: A masterclass in backroom diplomacy

✔️ Wellbeing trend for healthier office furniture

✔️ First Democrat debates for 2020 set for June

✔️ 'Amazon isn't bigger than New York'

✔️ Atherton, California = The wealthiest town in the United States

ROSS RANT

Talk to strangers: It will change your life.

GLOBALIZATION

Munich Security Conference: A masterclass in backroom diplomacy: Every year, powerful global leaders gather in Munich to discuss peace and diplomacy. But the conference is not just a show of power, it is a diplomatic laboratory of possibilities that takes place behind closed doors.

Chinese, US trade negotiators inch toward an agreement: WSJ reports, negotiators concluded weeklong talks and made some progress on a memorandum of understanding that could serve as the basis for a deal that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could later finalize at a summit.

US-China trade talks finish with little sign of progress: FT reports, teams had hoped to produce ‘memorandum of understanding’ to facilitate Xi-Trump summit.

The Chinese love an MOU.

US and China will continue trade talks next week.

Chinese state media: “both sides are satisfied”...

Reuters: Mnuchin says US had 'productive' trade meetings with China

Wonderful. What does that mean?

Mnuchin calls US-China talks ‘productive’ as deadline nears: Bloomberg reports, the two sides have failed to narrow the gap around structural reforms to China’s economy.

@onlyyoontv: “We are willing to adopt a cooperative approach to resolve and promote an agreement acceptable to both sides. However, cooperation requires certain principles.” - President Xi’s reminder to the U.S. that #China has its own bottom line in trade talks, says state media @XHNews

Nigeria votes: Forecasters are split over who will win Saturday’s election between President Muhammadu Buhari and his main opponent, Atiku Abubakar. The nation of 200 million people has faced numerous election rigging, which has marred almost every vote since Africa’s biggest oil producer got independence from the UK in 1960.

Ecuador and the IMF have launched formal talks about a potential financial bailout for the South American country.

OTD: In 1965 Canada flew its newly adopted red maple leaf flag for the first time.

Spain votes: PM calls snap election for April 28. This will be Spain's third election in four years.

Theresa May suffers fresh Commons defeat: MPs voted by 303 to 258 - a majority of 45 - against a motion endorsing the government's Brexit negotiating strategy. The defeat has no legal force and Downing Street said it would not change the PM's approach to talks with the EU. But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn urged Mrs May to "admit her Brexit strategy has failed" and to come forward with a plan Parliament would support.

FT: Brexit vote ‘shambles’ blows hole in May’s authority

The resurgent left: Millennial socialism: The Economist reports, a new kind of left-wing doctrine is emerging. It is not the answer to capitalism’s problems. https://econ.st/2DPQwBB

What is more problematic - populism or socialism?

DISRUPTION

Wellbeing and noise concerns fuel "accelerating" trend for healthier office furniture: Soundproof pods, saddle-shaped chairs, adjustable-height desks, and wobble boards were in abundance at Stockholm Furniture Fair last week, as privacy and wellbeing become essential aspects of office furniture design.

Pricing algorithms can learn to collude with each other to raise prices: If you shop on Amazon, an algorithm rather than a human probably set the price of the service or item you bought. Pricing algorithms have become ubiquitous in online retail as automated systems have grown increasingly affordable and easy to implement

NASA wants to get to the moon ‘as fast as possible.’ But countries like China and India are racing there, too.: WP reports, like the Cold War space race, the new lunar activity is fueled by national pride and a quest for scientific discovery. But this new Space Age also features a third factor: Greed.

End of fast fashion? Millennials are increasingly buying clothing that's characterized by durability and utility. This has led to a surge of interest in brands like The North Face and Patagonia.

POLITICS

It's an emergency: Trump plans to sign a spending bill that keeps the government open and will then declare a national emergency to seek more border-wall funding.

WP: ‘Off the rails’: Inside Trump’s attempt to frame a border wall defeat as a victory

Ted Cruz: Make ‘El Chapo’ pay for the border wall

William Barr Confirmed as Attorney General.

First Democrat debates for 2020: As many as 20 Democratic presidential contenders could qualify for the first two televised primary debates beginning in June. The DNC said the candidates will need to achieve at least 1% in a series of polls and show an ability to raise money online to qualify for the first two debates.

The first debate will be televised by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo while the second debate, in July, will air on CNN.

The DNC said the debate slots will be chosen at random and a maximum of 10 candidates will appear on stage during the individual debates. 

National Council For the American Worker: Apple CEO Tim Cook and IBM CEO Ginni Rometty are joining Trump’s business advisory board to help come up with solutions to prepare millions of Americans for the shift toward automation and artificial intelligence in the workplace. Cook and Rometty will be joined by other business executives, including the CEOs of Walmart, Lockheed Martin, and Home Depot. The group also includes two governors and leaders from trade groups. The board will be co-chaired by Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Ivanka Trump.

State Capitalism with American Characteristics.

I can't wait for Team Trump's Department of Software, Agency of Fintech, and AV Czar.

Peggy Noonan: Republicans need to save capitalism: Democrats have gone left, so they’re not going to do it. The GOP needs a renewed seriousness.

LAT: Trump's company scraps plans for new hotel chains, blaming politics 

THOUGHT LEADER TACTIC OF THE DAY

Speak at three conferences - think adjacent possible when it comes to venues and topics.

COMMERCE

CNBC: Amazon says it will not build a headquarters in New York

"We will proceed as planned in Northern Virginia and Nashville, and we will continue to hire and grow across our 17 corporate offices and tech hubs in the US and Canada."

NYC tells Amazon no way and leave, but the city is totally cool with a Duane Reade and Rite Aide on every corner.

Congratulations citizens of Long Island City ... You stopped the future.

NYT - Editorial: New York returns 25,000 jobs to Amazon: As the company cancels its plans for a major Queens campus, anti-corporate activists got what they wanted at a great cost.

'Amazon isn't bigger than New York': meet the man who killed HQ2: Guardian reports, Michael Gianaris turned his outrage into leverage when he was appointed to an obscure state board – and soon after, the company called the project off.

@pkafka: Reminder that Google is buying approximately all the real estate in Manhattan south of 23rd street and it’s NBD.

Apple's plans to launch its new iOs TV streaming service in either April or early May. 

JPM Coin: JP Morgan is rolling out the first US bank-backed cryptocurrency to transform payments business. 

Richard Waters: Everything still to play for with AI in its infancy: IBM and Google’s differing approaches highlight extent to which field is wide open.

CULTURE

$450,696: That’s the average household income in Atherton, California, the wealthiest town in the United States for three years in a row now.

How the US has hidden its empire: The United States likes to think of itself as a republic, but it holds territories all over the world – the map you always see doesn’t tell the whole story. http://bit.ly/2DJj3bA

Extension, EU, Exercise, Europe, Emerging

Extension, EU, Exercise, Europe, Emerging

Marc Ross Daily
February 14, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics

TOP FIVE

✔️ Trump considers 60-day extension for China tariffs

✔️ Europe's shrinking middle class

✔️ Exercise may help to fend off depression

✔️ Andrew McCabe: Every day is a new low in Trump's White House

✔️ How Michael Jordan became a brand

ROSS RANT

Risky ≠ Dangerous
 

GLOBALIZATION

Bloomberg: Trump considers 60-day extension for China tariff deadline

Trump said he was open to letting the March 1 deadline for more than doubling tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods slide, if the two countries are close to a deal that addresses deep structural changes to China’s economic policies.

A spokeswoman for US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer declined to comment.

Trump is so desperate for a big, we goin sizzler, blow out the candles on the birthday cake deal that it's hard to see how his art of the deal skills will be more successful with 60 more days.

US and China resume talks to resolve trade impasse: FT reports, Washington argues Beijing’s backing of Chinese companies distorts markets.

Politico: China aims to run out the clock to get Trump and Xi to the table on trade

“The Chinese looked at the State of the Union stare-down and the shutdown stare-down and could well be thinking to themselves that maybe Trump is an easier negotiator than Ambassador [Robert] Lighthizer,” said Scott Mulhauser, who served as chief of staff at the US embassy in Beijing under the Obama administration.

US trade demands have China fearful of 'color revolutions': Nikkei reports, 'structural reforms' touch the foundations of Communist Party rule.

Taiwan foreign minister: reunification with China 'not an option': Joseph Wu, the foreign minister of Taiwan, told DW that Taiwan could provide a model of democracy for China. However, China would need to accept that Taiwan is an "independent political entity" for relations to improve.

China’s 'ham-handed' PR moves hurt its global image: Nikkei reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping was hailed last year as the new keeper of the global economic order. This year he was denounced at Davos as a grave threat to freedom.

Europe's shrinking middle class: Since the recession of the late 2000s, the middle class has shrunk in over two-thirds of the European Union, echoing a similar decline in the United States and reversing two decades of expansion. 

France's unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2009.

EU heading for collapse just like the Soviet Union, warns Soros: The Times reports, George Soros has warned that the European Union is “sleepwalking into oblivion” and risks collapsing like the Soviet Union. Citing the spasms of upheaval in Italy, Britain and Germany, he said that Europe had drastically underestimated the threat from its “internal enemies” and was on the cusp of tipping into “the nightmare of the 21st century”.

The Times: Snap Spanish election looms as Catalans reject national budget

Bloomberg: Trump's foreign policy discord drives wedgebetween vital allies

“We have never seen anything like this. The problem with this administration is that they seem to have this genuine antagonism towards the European Union in ways that are frankly scary.”

Germany preps a plan B for Trump's foreign policy 'zigzag': One of Washington’s closest allies in a fractured Europe struggles to adapt to the Trump administration’s unpredictable policy moves.

DISRUPTION

Think big, work small: A new study finds that small teams of researchers do more innovative work than large teams do. The new research, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, is the latest contribution from an emerging branch of work known as the science of science — the study of how, when and through whom knowledge advances.

Exercise may help to fend off depression: Jogging for 15 minutes a day, or walking or gardening for somewhat longer, could help protect people against developing depression.

POLITICS

Manafort broke plea deal: A federal judge ruled that former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort lied to investigators about his contact with an associate linked to Russian intelligence.

“As part of his plea deal, he faced up to 10 years in prison ... But by breaching his plea agreement, he now likely faces the rest of his life in prison. His only hope of avoiding that fate is a presidential pardon.” -@PaulaReidCBS reports on Paul Manafort

Andrew McCabe: Every day is a new low in Trump's White House: The president steps over bright ethical and moral lines wherever he encounters them. Everyone in America saw it when he fired my boss. But I saw it firsthand time and time again.

60 Minutes: McCabe says he ordered the obstruction of justice probe of President Trump

The former FBI acting director tells 60 Minutes about the measures taken to ensure investigations into President Trump wouldn’t "vanish." 

.@ScottPelley's full interview with former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe will air this Sunday on @CBS' @60Minutes.

US CPI report which was stronger than expected. 

Two years into Trump's presidency, Pew reports Americans remain most satisfied with the state of US military strength and preparedness (78%) and the nation's security from terrorism (68%).

Tariffs Hurt the Heartland: US businesses paid an additional $2.7 billion in tariffs in November 2018, according to data from a coalition of business groups fighting Trump’s trade tariffs.

Voters 2020: Millennials and Gen Z will make up 37% of the 2020 electorate

Do you ever feel like Gen X doesn't exist?

Daniel Henninger: Maybe it’ll be Beto: The Democrats are going to lose if their nominee can’t hold a stage with Trump.

It's the age of personality trumping policy.

Reuters: Democrats swear off big money, but will it hurt their 2020 White House chances? 

COMMERCE

Airbus pulled the plug on its slow-selling A380 superjumbo.

How Michael Jordan became a brand: Michael Jordan remains the OG signature shoe king 16 years after his last NBA game and 21 years after his last championship. His Air Jordan brand, introduced by the Chicago Bulls superstar in 1984 and launched by Nike in 1985, created the basketball sneaker branding market. In fiscal 2018, Nike revenue from the Jordan Brand line hit nearly $2.9 billion. https://lat.ms/2DBkFEy

No endorsement deal? No problem. Spencer Dinwiddie created his own sneakers brand: Brooklyn Nets player Spencer Dinwiddie, ignored by the big sneaker companies early in his pro career, launched a self-endorsed brand, K8iros (pronounced “Kyros”), and debuted his new footwear this season. And each time he plays this season, he’ll be wearing a one-of-kind custom shoe designed by Los Angeles artist Troy “Kickasso” Cole.

Levi Strauss plans to go public — again. Files IPO under symbol LEVI.

Canada Goose to open new factory in Quebec as profit beats expectations.

Juventus tests ‘Ronaldo effect’ in global bond market: FT reports, the Italian football club seeks fresh funding after paying €100m for Portuguese star.

CULTURE

Jude Webber: ‘Roma’ is channelling a changing political zeitgeist: Alfonso Cuarón’s drama focuses on the ordinary Mexicans the new president has promised to represent.

THOUGHT LEADER TACTIC OF THE DAY

Invite a reporter your admire to coffee - do this ten times this year.