How to not make a prediction

One of the tents of successful geopolitical business communications is intelligence.

Or, if you want a more specific definition, let's use the Bayes' rule.

Named after Thomas Bayes, the rule describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.

This means the best way to make a good prediction is to be accurately informed about what you're predicting.

As explained in the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, applying the Bayes rule means you have the intelligence to grasp the world in proper proportions.

The book explains: "When something surprises us, it ought to surprise us, and when it doesn't, it ought not to."

However, when language is added, this rule starts to break down.

What we talk about typically differs from what we experience.

We talk about what we think a listener will find most interesting, compelling, and entertaining.

We talk about rare things.

The book states: "There's a curious tension, then, between communicating with others and maintaining accurate priors about the world. When people talk about what interests them - and offer stories they think their listeners will find interesting - it skews the statistics of our experience."

This need to communicate on topics we hope the listener finds most interesting, compelling, and entertaining makes it challenging to maintain appropriate prior distributions.

This challenge has only increased with the rise of the printing press, cable news, and social media.

Simply put, media coverage of events, news, and innovations does not track their occurrence in the wild.

Barry Glassner, a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis and author of The Culture of Fear, notes that the murder rate in the United States has declined by over 20% since the 1990s, while the coverage of gun violence on American news has increased 600%.

So, if you need solid intelligence to execute world-class geopolitical business communications, you must follow the Bayes' rule and protect your priors.

Make a solid geopolitical prediction by protecting your priors.

Or secure an outside expert to identify what matters and what should be in a weekly zeitgeist memo.

If you need help identifying essential news or crafting a zeitgeist memo to protect your priors, Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful geopolitical business communications requires intelligence.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected geopolitical and Bayesian environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

England's soft power own goal

Queen Letizia of Spain and her younger daughter, Princess Sofia, traveled to Sydney, Australia, for the World Cup finals on Sunday — and then took part in the celebrations on the field after Spain defeated England 1-0.

Ahead of the game, Queen Letizia said about watching the finals, "It is a joy, and it is exciting to be here today in Sydney to support and accompany the players and the entire coaching staff in a final that is making all of Spain vibrate."

Not attending the match, no member of the British royal family.

William, Prince of Wales, the monarch in waiting, is also president of England's Football Association.

Rightly so, he has been criticized for being absent from yesterday's World Cup final despite the Lionesses of England playing.

It is bizarre he did not make the trip.

The Lionesses are the defending champions of Europe and came into the tournament ranked as the fourth-best team in the world.

The Lionesses going deep into the tournament and competing in the finals was well-expected globally, and plans for William to make the trip should have been planned months in advance.

Critics said it was unimaginable that he would skip the final if it were the men's team playing.

Some media reports in the United Kingdom said William was "concerned about his carbon footprint" over the 19-hour flight from London to Sydney.

Plus, a trip could also have been full of diplomatic complications as King Charles, Australia's monarch, has yet to make a state visit down under, and William's journey could lead to political and security problems.

Such greenwashing and rigidity combined to make this an England soft power own goal.

Meanwhile, Spain's royal family was front and center, celebrating the Spanish team's achievement.

No greenwashing and rigidity from the royals based in Madrid.

During the trophy presentation, Queen Letizia ended up holding a jersey they gifted her in front of many of the players and coaching staff.

The Spanish players began to chant "que bote la Reina," which translates roughly to "Bounce/Jump Queen!" and the Spanish Queen complied happily and began to jump up and down with the athletes.

She wore a red pantsuit the same color as their jerseys, and Queen Letizia fit in with the team.

King Charles, for his part, offered "heartfelt thoughts and commiserations" following the Lionesses' loss.

Even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could not be bothered to attend the match.

Representing England was Lucy Frazer.

She is the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, and Sport of the United Kingdom.

I am sure MP Frazer is a fine person.

But she lacks a royal's razzmatazz and a prime minister's pizazz.

Global sporting competitions offer nations and their leaders unmatched soft power and diplomatic branding opportunities.

Not only did England lose the match, but it missed a glorious soft power opportunity.

If you need help with soft power and corporate diplomacy, Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful communications requires intelligence, strategy, and engagement.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected geopolitical and global sports environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

An essential communications lesson from Apatow and Ann Arbor

Famed American director, producer, and screenwriter Judd Apatow, best known for his work in comedy films, when asked on a pod how to write, he goes for the pow: "The best advice is writers write. You gotta write."

You just gotta write.

You just gotta spew. Let it go. Put it down. Fill in the page.

Apatow says writing requires two separate activities.

One mode is writing.

One mode is editing.

You can't do them at the same time.

You can't edit as you write.

If you do, you block. You deny. You assess. You judge.

Ari Weinzweig, along with his partner Paul Saginaw, founded Zingerman's Delicatessen with a $20,000 bank loan, a Russian History degree from the University of Michigan, four years of experience washing dishes, cooking and managing in restaurant kitchens, and chutzpah from his hometown of Chicago.

Today, Zingerman's Delicatessen is a nationally renowned food icon, and Zingerman's Community of Businesses has grown to 10 businesses with over 750 employees and over $55 million in annual revenue.

When I visit Ann Arbor, Zingerman's Delicatessen is always a must-stop, and I have used their mail-order service over the years to send goods and treats to family and friends.

Weinzweig has a unique approach to business.

A unique approach that harnesses his skills of writing books on business and in-depth articles on food for Zingerman's newsletter.

In Weinzweig's book, Building a Great Business, he shares with his readers that he embraces a "hot pen" technique.

Like Apatow, Weinzweig believes: "Once you start writing, don't stop. Just keep writing for 15 to 30 minutes, regardless of how smart or silly what you're saying may seem. Don't start self-editing - just keep writing."

Weinzweig stresses to keep the pen moving.

He has found his most interesting, compelling, and fanciful bits of writing "are the ones that I started to edit out, but forced myself to put it down anyway."

So the essential communications lesson from Apatow and Ann Arbor is to write.

Just write.

Keep the pen moving.

Keep the communications coming.

If you need help keeping your pen moving and communications coming, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc