Using data: A lesson from the IBM 305 RAMAC

In the picture is the IBM 305 RAMAC.

In 1956, IBM released this machine as the first supercomputer with a hard disk drive.

Chrysler, in 1957, was the first to put this supercomputer into industrial application.

During the 1960 Squaw Valley Olympic Winter Games, IBM provided data processing for the Games.

One thousand RAMACs were built, but by 1962, the RAMAC was obsolete.

Since the RAMAC was unveiled, the world has only become more inundated with data.

Still, Hollywood can't guarantee a hit.

NHL fans can't confirm the winner of this season's Stanley Cup.

The future UK PM officeholder can't be verified.

And the next chef to beat Bobby Flay can't be affirmed.

We love data.

"Do a survey. Do a focus group. Do a study."

Do more data.

The magic isn't in more data.

Data should not be about trying to use the information to prove a theory but to see what the numbers tell us and to inform us what we might be missing - since our minds like to trick us.

You see, our brains are wired to remember and overvalue the vivid and the shocking. Our brains are wired to remember events that actually happened and not events that could occur.

So often, we comfort ourselves in data to gain a better understanding and some guidance, but the data often falls short.

In their book, Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong, authors Chris Anderson and David Sally concluded that soccer is a 50/50 game.

Half is luck, and half is skill.

With this conclusion, the authors determined two routes to soccer glory.

One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game.

Disney CEO Bob Iger reached a similar conclusion.

Announcing his company's over-the-top Disney+ streaming service, Iger is going where his customers are—one where customers can customize their viewing experience and seamlessly view Mickey and Minnie on numerous devices.

No survey, focus group, or study is needed to know this is a good move for Disney.

Disney has a customer experience that is visceral and multigenerational.

A customer experience that is deep and broad.

A customer experience forged with skill.

But Iger knows Disney needs more than skill to win the future.

As Iger told CNBC, if you measure the future against the present, the present doesn't stay the present for very long. Today's marketplace has never been more dynamic.

You can't measure what is happening today. You need to measure what you think will happen in the future - that and harness a little luck.

Many of us don't innovate because a current business model shapes the data and information we use and what has gotten us to our current status.

Data that is based on the present and data which is not of the future.

So, be mindful of having too much data as a means to confirm what you want the outcome to be.

Plus, feel free to harness a little bit of luck.

Want to ensure you are using data successfully?

I am a geostrategist and geopolitical business communications advisor.

I founded Caracal, believing that geopolitics is disrupting every industry and sector and that comms pros need actionable insights and ideas to navigate today's interconnected business environment.

Clients rely on Caracal for help navigating today's interconnected business environment with intelligence, strategy, engagement, and education.

Happy to have a chat if it makes sense.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | September 15, 2023

25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. In Germany, more and more people between the ages of 30 and 49 with children and young professionals between the ages of 25 and 29 have been moving to the countryside since 2017.

2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to visit Washington next week.

3. The European Parliament is looking to expand - it will take the number of seats from 705 to 720 between 2024 and 2029.

4. The City of Los Angeles has a bigger population than fourteen US states.

5. The Democratic Republic of Congo has 43% of the world's cobalt deposits.

6. China refines 70% of the world's cobalt.

7. Half of Ethiopia's population of 120 million live without power.

8. China overtook Germany in 2022 and Japan in the first half of this year as the world's largest car exporter.

9. Mexico surpassed China as the US's largest trade partner.

10. Ron DeSantis says the odds of Donald Trump winning the presidency if convicted are 'close to zero.'

11. QOTW #1: "Politicians from one-party states never learn broadness. They speak only Party Language to Party Folk. They aren't forced to develop policy mastery, only party dynamics. They rely on personal charm but are superficial." -- Peggy Noonan

12. QOTW #2: "Elections aren't an event, but a process." -- Karl Rove

13. The White House is expected to release an executive order on AI this year.

14. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports US mortgage demand dropped to the lowest level in 27 years.

15. Caesars paid ransom after suffering a cyberattack.

16. McDonald's is removing its self-serve soda machines at its US restaurants.

17. Venice wants to combat 'overtourism' with a new €5 entrance fee.

18. USA Today is hiring a Taylor Swift reporter.

19. Alexander McQueen designer Sarah Burton quits after two decades.

20. Lockheed Martin, the American defense contractor, is entering the streetwear business.

21. The 'Poor Things' takes the top prize at the Venice Film Festival.

22. Antidepressant users per 1,000 people in the US: 110

23. Paul Pogba was suspended after testing positive for testosterone.

24. The Dartmouth men's basketball players file the National Labor Relations Board petition to unionize.

25. The NFL extends the deal for London games through 2029.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

How to build a leadership team: A lesson from the Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions going on the road to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL 2023 season-opening game is a wow moment.

Arguably, this is the Lions' most significant win in decades.

Since winning an NFL championship in 1957—a decade before the first Super Bowl was played—the Lions have won just one playoff game, in the 1991 season, against the Dallas Cowboys.

That's right: one playoff victory since the Dwight Eisenhower administration and Jerry Lee Lewis was signing "Great Balls of Fire."

Colton Pouncy of The Athletic reports this wow moment in Kansas City started when the Lions knew it had to change how it selected its leadership team of general manager and coach.

"Having gone through the Patricia-Quinn years, I really wanted people who were coming from two different institutions, two different teams, and brought kind of a fresh approach and not just one way of looking at the world," Lions president Rod Wood said to Pouncy. "I think it's real easy to go to a New England or a Pittsburgh or a Green Bay, teams that have historically been very good, and think, 'You can replicate that in Detroit.'"

"Well, we became Patriots Midwest. And that's not who we wanted to be. We wanted to be the Detroit Lions. We were looking for people that were going to be our kind of people. And I think I kind of learned that the hard way."

The Lions made four crucial decisions on how to hire their next general manager and coach.

First, get old-school and all-around great former players into the decision-making processes.

In December 2020, the Lions announced they hired former linebacker Chris Spielman as a special assistant to team owner Sheila Ford Hamp and team president Rod Wood, while Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders joined as a part-time advisor to help in the search for a new general manager and head coach.

Second, have the team owner and team president agree that the new general manager and coach should adapt and work together for a common goal and be open to differing opinions, all to steer an egoless ship.

Third, disrupt the typical hiring process. Commonly, for professional teams, a general manager is hired first and then leads a search for the head coach. The general manager makes a final call on a coaching candidate, involved in the process from start to finish. The typical approach of most teams is to hire a combo general manager and head coach package from a winning franchise.

Fourth, spot hires that will get you to where you want to go.

For general manager, the Lions went with Brad Holmes.

Holmes is a former HBCU football player and journalism major who parlayed a PR internship with the Rams into a job with the club's scouting department.

Holmes' ability to spot talent and his communications skills sold him to the Lions.

For coach, the Lions went with Dan Campbell.

Campbell spent three seasons with Detroit as a player, including Detroit's infamous 0-16 team in 2008. Following his playing days, Campbell went into coaching and was well-known to command the respect of his players.

Campbell's experience as a Lion and knowing how to motivate players sold him to the Lions.

The Lions had found the right people using their new approach and vision.

The Lions had found the right people, hailing from different NFL backgrounds and chosen simultaneously.

So separate was the interview and hiring process that Campbell and Holmes were introduced to one another via text.

Want to ensure you are building a communications team with a new approach and vision?

I am a geostrategist and geopolitical business communications advisor.

I founded Caracal, believing that geopolitics is disrupting every industry and sector and that comms pros need actionable insights and ideas to navigate today's interconnected business environment.

Clients rely on Caracal for help navigating today's interconnected business environment with intelligence, strategy, engagement, and education.

Happy to have a chat if it makes sense.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc