Caracal Daily | July 8
French Left, Vance + Rubio, New Age of Materials, Happiness, Lhakpa Sherpa, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
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Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
+ @POLITICOEurope: 🚨 BREAKING: The leftwing alliance is heading for a shock victory in the 2024 French election — according to first estimates.
Bloomberg: French left set for election win in shocking reversal for Le Pen
Macron and left thwart far right in French election, polls say: FT reports projections suggest Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has fallen well short of expected gains in parliament.
French leftist coalition appears to win most seats in parliamentary elections: WSJ reports the New Popular Front is projected to take the biggest share of the National Assembly but fall far short of a majority, raising the specter of a hung parliament.
How France’s far right built a national movement: Old school retail politics have helped bring Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National to the brink of political power. FT
UK HOC: Labour has 412 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives are down to just 121, and the Liberal Democrats on 71.
Rachel Reeves was named UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, the first female to hold this position.
Keir Starmer begins tour of UK nations to ‘reset’ relations: FT reports the PM moves to repair Westminster’s strained relationship with devolved administrations.
My advice to Keir Starmer Tony Blair
An insider’s guide to Keir Starmer’s 100-day action plan for UK Bloomberg
Labour’s Potemkin landslide Fraser Nelson
Greens secure four seats in best-ever UK result: FT reports the party captures all its targets after luring leftwing voters from Labour, as investors note clear support for climate action.
Sunak’s big bet ends in Tory party’s worst defeat in history: ‘Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong’ in the six week election campaign say former cabinet ministers. Bloomberg
How Rishi Sunak got stumped: The inside story of a disastrous campaign: Since he arrived in No 10, the then prime minister was on a sticky wicket. We reveal the ignored advice from Dominic Cummings, the dumped plan to rethink human rights and the conversation that sparked the betting scandal — and bowled him out. The Times
This Trump supporter helped crush the UK’s Conservative Party: Reform UK’s Nigel Farage now wants to reshape the country’s politics. WSJ
Farage, anti-immigrant icon, could reshape Britain’s conservative trajectory: In the shadow of Labour’s landslide victory over the upended Conservatives, Nigel Farage’s small insurgent right-wing party, Reform UK, is on a roll. NYT
How investors should play the UK, French and US elections: Worry not if policies are discounted, they are sideshows versus fundamentals. Stuart Kirk
China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine puts Beijing on NATO’s threat list: Worries that ‘Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow’ prompt more US allies to look for ways to contain China. WSJ
Is xenophobia on Chinese social media teaching real-world hate? Violent attacks on foreigners have prompted a debate about extreme nationalism online in a country that heavily censors information the government bans. NYT
Made in China, for China: Is patriotism the answer to its weakening economy? With China’s growth target of 5 per cent this year deemed ambitious, the programme Insight looks at the factors behind its economic challenges and whether relying on innovation and domestic spending can steer its economy towards recovery. CNA
CNBC: China leads the patents race for generative AI, with Tencent and Baidu topping the list
+ Geographically, China leads with 38,210 inventions from 2014 to 2023, far outpacing the U.S. (6,276), Republic of Korea (4,155), Japan (3,409) and India (1,350).
+ Tencent, Ping An Insurance and Baidu are among the top ten inventors, the UN report showed.
+ “The sharp rise in patenting activity reflects the recent technological advances and the potential within GenAI,” the report said.
Tesla cars make it onto a Chinese province’s procurement list: Bloomberg reports Tesla’s locally built cars in China have made it onto a provincial government’s procurement list, meaning that Communist Party workers can buy them for official use for the first time.
EU confirms tariffs on Chinese-made EVs: WSJ reports new import fees will begin Friday and last at least four months, the EU Commission said.
China EV makers to pivot to emerging markets as US, EU hike tariffs: The shift also comes amid Chinese President Xi Jinping and his government’s increasing desire to boost cooperation with the Global South, which China considers itself a part of. CNA
Tokyo Governor Koike wins third term: CNA reports Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike declared victory in Sunday's vote to elect the leader of one of the world's most populous cities after Japanese media said exit polls showed her winning in a landslide.
Israelis’ frustration with Netanyahu builds as war hits nine months: WSJ reports Israelis take to the streets to call for new elections and for the government to secure the release of hostages.
Hopes for a diplomatic opening rise under Iran’s new president: NYT reports Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist, wants warmer relations with the West, with the goal of ending sanctions. But his powers are strictly limited.
CNA: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger sign 'confederation' treaty
As Trudeau confronts an anxious caucus, some Liberals say he needs to act swiftly: CBC reports the PM's caucus support hasn't cratered yet — but party sources say he has to prove he has a plan.
AI begins ushering in an age of killer robots NYT
Amazon to build $1.3bn Australian defence cloud: FT reports the deal aims to improve data sharing with allies including UK and US.
NATO has to change. Here’s how. Farah Stockman
*** US Politics + Elections ***
WP: Biden aides face scrutiny of whether they shielded him from showing signs of aging
The conspiracy of silence to protect Joe Biden: The president’s mental decline was like a dark family secret for many elite supporters. Olivia Nuzzi
Jill Biden’s momentous choice: First ladies have unique influence over their husband’s decision to embark on a presidential campaign, and over the presidency itself. Felicia Kornbluh + Julia E. Sweig
Biden can’t spin his way out of this: The president’s handlers think he can plow ahead, but his position will only get worse. What a tragedy. Peggy Noonan
The Almighty calls for Biden: The Democratic Party establishment that covered for the President’s decline now wants him gone. WSJ - Editorial
Biden’s defiant delusion David Axelrod
Presidential historian explains why dropping Biden won’t help Democrats WSJ
Biden narrows gap with Trump in swing states despite debate loss: The incumbent trails his GOP rival by just 2 points across key states, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows, even as three in 10 Democrats say he should leave the race. Bloomberg
Trump running mate decision nears, with Vance, Rubio at center of talks: WP reports the campaign is eyeing an announcement by July 15th and internal talks have focused heavily on the two senators.
The AI industry starts to focus on a potential Trump presidency Semafor
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Hollywood tycoon Ari Emanuel blasts OpenAI’s Sam Altman after Elon Musk scared him about the future: ‘You’re the dog’ to an AI master Fortune
A hacker stole OpenAI secrets, raising fears that China could, too: NYT reports security breach at the maker of ChatGPT last year revealed internal discussions among researchers and other employees, but not the code behind OpenAI’s systems.
We need to control AI agents now: Automated bots are about to be everywhere, with potentially devastating consequences. Jonathan Zittrain
AI has all the answers. Even the wrong ones: ChatGPT has the appearance of a brilliant logician and that’s a problem. Tim Harford
For AI giants, smaller is sometimes better: Companies are turning their attention to less powerful models, hoping lower costs and solid performance will win more customers. WSJ
Reuters: Crypto hacking thefts double to $1.4 bln in first half of 2024, researchers say
Every time you post to Instagram, you’re turning on a light bulb forever: Even simple actions online can take a toll on the environment. Arthur Holland Michel
Inside America’s billion-dollar quest to squeeze more trees into cities: We follow an arborist around DC to find out why it’s so hard to plant urban trees. WP
A new age of materials is dawning, for everything from smartphones to missiles: Labor-intensive manufacturing has limited the use of lighter, stronger composites but that may change with emerging techniques. Christopher Mims
Battery maker SK On declares ‘emergency’ as EV sales disappoint: Supplier to Ford and Volkswagen may have to be rescued by its South Korean parent as losses mount. FT
Is it OK to choose 'no tip' at the counter? Some customers think so: Survey results show 77% of Canadian respondents dislike auto-tipping prompts on payment machines. CBC
How Ford Motor Company is reshaping Detroit into the next great tech hub: With the opening of Michigan Central, some of Detroit’s oldest neighborhoods are getting a new life. FC
*** Culture ***
Shiny blowouts, chic fashion and West Village reservations. These Insta-perfect lives are managed by one woman. Shana Davis-Ross scores lucrative brand deals for social-media influencers. And now TikTok has millions of posts devoted to the ‘West Village Girl.’ WSJ
A happiness expert’s frank advice for Joe Biden: Arthur C. Brooks on the trap of staying on too long. Matt Seaton
*** Sport ***
The amazing double life of Lhakpa Sherpa: Everest record breaker — and Connecticut house cleaner: With little help from sponsors, Lhakpa Sherpa has climbed Everest 10 times — more than any other woman — and overcome even bigger challenges off the mountain. FT
The beautiful game in ugly times — a Euro 2024 journey: Following the England team in Germany, Gideon Rachman watches new football stars emerge in the shadow of war and a resurgent far right. FT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | July 8
