Caracal Daily | July 10
NATO, Dems, Lavazza, The Whole of the Moon, College Football, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
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Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
12 people to keep an eye on at the NATO summit: A guide to some of the most interesting characters in Washington this week planning for the future of the alliance. Politico
As NATO convenes, leaders worry about a hole in its center: A summit meant to convey confidence in the newly expanded alliance now faces uncertainty over President Biden’s future, and the looming possibility of the return of Donald Trump. NYT
NATO summit puts Biden’s fitness under a microscope: President faces a pivotal test in a three-day event that opens Tuesday. WSJ
Biden’s choices affect NATO, too: A second Trump presidency poses an existential threat to an alliance Biden has fortified. WP - Editorial
NATO is a bulwark against tyranny: Facing down dictators such as Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko is what the alliance was built for. Nancy Pelosi + Svetlana Tikhanovskaya
NATO, the 75-year triumph whose future is always cloudy: Concern about the alliance’s durability might as well be written into its mission statement. David Ignatius
Bloomberg: NATO backs effort to save internet by rerouting to space in event of subsea attacks
+ Academics eye developing system to reroute data to satellites
+ Iceland, Sweden, and Viasat among those that could benefit
NATO to expand defense industrial cooperation to Indo-Pacific: Nikkei reports the alliance aims to tap production capacity of South Korea, Japan and Australia.
US officials say Russia is unlikely to take much more Ukrainian territory: NYT reports Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but NATO leaders gathering in Washington can say that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.
+ NATO allies will announce Ukraine will receive nine more “Patriot-like” air defense systems by the end of the year.
Politico: Trump ally warns Eastern Europe to rapidly increase defense budgets
+ The adviser says frontline countries should spend 10 percent on defense to fend off Russia.
+ "The United States has a commitment to come to the aid of NATO countries that are attacked. That is not the same thing as saying we should throw our entire military [to the eastern flank]," said Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense in the first Trump administration.
Sweden’s prime minister: Europe must step up to defend itself: European leaders know what needs to be done — no matter who is in the White House, says Ulf Kristersson. Lally Weymouth
Europeans use NATO summit to build contacts with affiliates of Donald Trump: FT reports the moves point to concern about Joe Biden’s re-election prospects among US allies.
+ Trump calls on Europe to send $100bn to Kyiv to ‘equalise’ US support
Can Norway persuade Trump on NATO? The prime minister of Norway thinks the alliance can win over its critics. Politico
Wanted: New European ‘Trump whisperer’ to save transatlantic alliance: Trump or not in the White House, NATO has to embrace some hard realities to survive another five — much less 75 — years. Politico
The weird resilience of NATO and the EU: How the West’s two most important institutions are withstanding the age of populism. Janan Ganesh
Why India will become a superpower: The nation can play a big part in shaping the world’s future but its internal challenges are formidable. Martin Wolf
Modi bear hugs Putin in Moscow, marking deep ties between Russia and India: WP reports despite Washington’s efforts to woo Prime Minister Narendra Modi and isolate President Vladimir Putin, the visit shows continuing close relations between their countries.
Zelenskyy: Modi is a ‘huge disappointment’ for hugging Putin: Politico reports Ukraine can’t believe Indian leader met “bloody criminal” Russian ruler on day of children’s hospital bombing.
+ The Pentagon on Friday “indefinitely” called off a US Army exercise in the country of Georgia, which neighbors Russia, as US officials review future cooperation with the country.
Russia plans to have 2,600 satellites in orbit by 2036 despite limitations that allow it to produce only 15 a year.
Why the French election result was such a surprise: Polling firms say their models weren’t able to fully capture the shifting dynamics in the days before the vote. WP
After a deadlocked election, can anyone govern France? The country is scrambling to find a new prime minister. Economist
Recriminations fly in Marine Le Pen’s party over French election result: Rassemblement National official who helped pick contentious candidates steps down from executive committee. FT
Corporate France bids adieu to Emmanuel Macron’s pro-business agenda: Many are relieved to see extremes neutralized, but political gridlock and the rise of the left sparks concern. FT
Europe’s new politics: Nobody is popular: Votes in France and the UK show the splintering of Europe’s electorates as leaders struggle to claim a clear mandate. WSJ
The European country playing off the US, Russia, China, and Europe: Serbia is forging close ties with Donald Trump’s team even as it attempts to pursue a middle course in a multipolar world. FT
+ Belarus and China kicked off 11-day joint military training exercises Monday, Belarus’ defense ministry said – with activities taking place just miles from the border of Poland, a NATO and European Union member.
What does Labour’s win mean for British foreign policy? Continuity on NATO and Ukraine, and hopes for a reset with Europe. Economist
US allies issue rare warning on Chinese hacking group: An advisory by Australia, along with the US and six other countries, details a group known as APT40. WSJ
+ House Speaker Mike Johnson is targeting the end of 2024 for Congress to pass a “significant” package of legislation aimed at curbing China.
Chinese developers scramble as OpenAI blocks access in China: Guardian reports the US firm’s move, amid Beijing-Washington tensions, sparks rush to lure users to homegrown models.
US creates high-tech global supply chains to blunt risks tied to China: The Biden administration is trying to get foreign companies to invest in chip-making in the United States and more countries to set up factories to do final assembly and packaging. NYT
+ Japan depends heavily on a single country, often China, for imports of many more types of consumer and industrial products than do Tokyo's G7 peers, a government white paper shows.
China and Russia plot course for ‘Ice Silk Road’ in the Arctic: Moscow has a new ally in its efforts to keep the Northeast Passage open throughout the summer months. The Times
Avoiding war in the South China Sea: How America can support the Philippines without fighting China. Ryan Hass
+ Air forces from around the world will descend on Australia’s remote Northern Territory this month for a combat exercise of unprecedented scale there.
Africa gets $1 billion boost as UN agency backs startup hubs: Bloomberg reports the United Nations Development Programme, African governments and the private sector plan to raise $1 billion and open a string of technology hubs across the continent to boost start-up innovation.
+ The first of 10 hubs that will form part of the world’s largest initiative supporting Africa’s technology startups will open at UNDP’s innovation center in Lagos, Nigeria.
How Canada’s dream supersonic interceptor became a national nightmare CNN
*** US Politics + Elections ***
How Biden is leveraging his defiance to try to stem Democratic defections: In private and in public, President Biden made clear he holds all the cards when determining his political future. Can he get his Democratic critics to fold? NYT
Hill Dems brace for party reckoning over Biden: Politico reports the party’s panic over the president’s electability has spiraled behind the scenes — and is likely to spill more into public view in the coming days.
Biden won’t win. Democrats need a plan. Here’s one. James Carville
Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win: Politico reports Vice President Kamala Harris is now running ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, the survey found.
@daveweigel: RCP poll average on this day in prior campaigns:
2020: Biden +9.0
2016: Clinton +4.7
2012: Obama +2.5
2008: Obama +4.2
2004: Kerry +2.0
First time in 24 years that the GOP nominee has led after the July 4 holiday, going into conventions.
Battleground MI: President Joe Biden will visit Michigan on Friday as some Democrats pressure him to suspend his campaign.
Bloomberg: Divided Democrats blast Trump agenda to shift Biden focus
+ Biden allies warn of the dangers of ‘Project 2025’ proposals
+ New Democrat calls on Biden to step aside, as doubts persist
Democrats’ effort to push Biden off ticket loses steam: WSJ reports,‘right now, President Biden is the nominee, and we support the Democratic nominee,’ says a top House Democrat.
WP: House Democrats move subtly toward acceptance of Biden staying in the race
Joe Biden latest: ‘pragmatic’ Democrats fall in behind president: The Times reports endorsements from senior figures in Congress — including Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — suggest tide is turning against rebellion.
Top Democrats, swallowing fears, remain behind Biden: NYT reports after Democrats in the House and the Senate met privately in their respective caucuses, they indicated that they were unwilling — for now — to mount an effort to push the president aside despite their concerns.
Why is the Squad backing Biden so forcefully? Nia Prater
Biden is trying to run out the clock: The president has made it clear he is “committed to staying in this race,” despite increasing pressure from fellow Democrats and donors. Timothy L. O'Brien
+ Haley releases delegates to Trump
AP: The plane is ready, the fundraisers are booked: Trump’s VP search comes down to its final days
Trump says he has yet to finalize VP pick: Bloomberg reports that Senators JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum were under consideration.
Russia seeks to boost Trump in 2024 election, US intelligence officials say: WSJ reports other foreign-influence operations in the US include attempts by Iran to covertly encourage protests against the war in Gaza, officials say
New AI polling is out: The AI Policy Institute has published new survey data on public attitudes toward safeguarding American AI technologies from foreign competitors. Key findings:
+ 71% of Americans express significant or moderate concern about the Chinese acquisition of advanced AI models created by US firms.
+ Bipartisan agreement emerged on AI development pace, with 75% of both Democrats and Republicans preferring a measured approach on AI use and deployment over accelerating to gain an edge on China.
+ 63% of respondents support legislative action to restrict AI technology exports.
How the Department of Homeland Security’s WMD office sees the AI threat GZero Daily
WP: Houston power outages may last days amid slow Beryl recovery, surging heat
Bloomberg: Houston bakes in post-Beryl blackout as Biden declares emergency
+ At one West Houston station, dozens line up for gasoline
+ Heat and lack of air conditioning are raising risk of illness
USA Today transformed the media world for good. What’s its legacy now? Gannett’s ‘McPaper’ drew scorn when it debuted 42 years ago. It ended up anticipating the future of news. But as USA Today loses another editor in chief, does it still have a place in national media? WP
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Athletic Brewing is now valued at $800 million after its latest funding round.
Fortune: AI is effectively ‘useless’—and it’s created a ‘fake it till you make it’ bubble that could end in disaster, veteran market watcher warns
Etsy, the artisanal e-commerce giant, will require that every item for sale incorporate a "human touch."
27.1 billion: From April to June, investors poured $27.1 billion into US-based artificial intelligence startups, according to PitchBook.
Inside the secrets of generative AI: The French-American startup Hugging Face recently made the most powerful corpus of texts for developing language models available on its open-source platform. Le Monde
China's AI startups race for customers as titans like Alibaba cut prices: Intensifying battle to generate revenue sows concern over industry sustainability. Nikkei
Deepfake fraudsters impersonate FTSE chief executives: AI-generated voice notes are used to trick people into transferring money. The Times
+ @alialsalim: Data centres now account for ~3% of annual global carbon emissions from human activity, on par with the aviation and shipping industries.
48: Google’s greenhouse gas emissions are up a whopping 48% since 2019, thanks in no small part to its investments in AI.
Microsoft and Occidental sign carbon credit deal to help offset AI energy surge: FT reports the agreement comes as tech groups seek to meet climate promises while expanding power-hungry artificial intelligence.
World’s largest oil company bets on the enduring power of petrol: Saudi Aramco says combustion engines will be around for ‘very, very long time’ after Horse Powertrain investment. FT
Lavazza chair warns coffee prices will rise.
Nike’s new chief runs into trouble as turnaround efforts falter: The world’s largest sportswear maker is in crisis as its sneakers lose some of their cultural cachet. FT
The mission for Europe’s new rocket: Challenge SpaceX: After years of delays, Europe is preparing to test-launch a new rocket that officials hope will help reduce the region’s reliance on Elon Musk. WSJ
*** Culture ***
The Whole of the Moon — The Waterboys’ 1985 track has a visionary streak: Songwriter Mike Scott says he was inspired by a sense of ‘wonderment’ — and by a collage of influences, including Prince. FT
I was grounded
While you filled the skies
I was dumbfounded by truth
You cut through lies
I saw the rain dirty valley
You saw Brigadoon
I saw the crescent
You saw the whole of the moon
How to save brutalism from the wrecking ball: A new exhibit examines the history of Brutalist architecture in Washington, DC, offering provocative solutions for some of the city’s least-understood buildings. Bloomberg
Exclusive Ivy League social clubs are desperate for members: As the clubs lose popularity, some are implementing looser dress codes, discounted dues and speed dating to boost membership. WSJ
*** Sport ***
AP: At the Paris Olympics, it will no longer be personal for Ukraine’s athletes. This time, it’s war
You won’t believe college football this season: Conference realignment, no more Coach Saban and Coach Harbaugh, and an expanded playoff. The game has never been in a more turbulent state. Jason Gay
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | July 10
