Caracal Daily | August 13

Caracal Daily | August 13

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

US deploys submarine to Middle East; Israel anticipates direct attack from Iran: WP reports the order came after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, discussing efforts to deter Iran.

US and Israeli defense officials speak amid fears of escalation in Mideast: NYT reports Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, the Pentagon said. In an unusual disclosure, it said Austin had ordered a submarine to the Middle East.

AP: Leaders of France, Germany, and Britain endorse push for cease-fire in Gaza

Today: The UN Security Council holds a public meeting on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

In Syria’s hinterlands, the US wages a hidden campaign against a resurgent Islamic State: Defeated by American-led forces half a decade ago, the terrorist group is rebounding amid the chaos of the Middle East. WSJ

The Times: Zelensky tells Putin war is ‘coming home’ to Russia

At a Russian border post, scenes of ruin after Ukraine’s surprise attack: A week after the biggest foreign incursion into Russia since World War II, The New York Times visited one of the spots where Ukrainian forces stormed into Russia and surprised the defenders. NYT

Russia evacuated parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv sharply increased military activity near the border just days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the 2022 war.

Up to 180K Russians flee Ukraine’s continued offensive: Politico reports Kyiv’s forces advance further into Russian territory and have reportedly managed to repel Moscow’s attempts to reinforce defending troops.

Facing a Ukrainian incursion, Putin directs his rage at the West: NYT reports Russian forces are pummeling Ukrainian positions along the front lines, Ukrainian military officials said, as attacks on Russian soil by Ukraine continue.

Today: Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow.

US Congressional delegation visits Taiwan this week: Bloomberg reports a US congressional delegation led by Marilyn Strickland and other democrats arrived Taiwan on Sunday for a five-day visit, according to a statement from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Tim Walz knows China. That’s good for the US: A more nuanced approach to Beijing doesn’t mean Washington needs to abandon its firm positions on trade, territorial disputes, and Taiwan. Karishma Vaswani

Walz’s China ties garner attention, provoke GOP criticism: Republicans say the Democratic vice presidential nominee will be too soft on Beijing. Politico

TikTok shows less “anti-China” content than rivals, researchers say.

China FDI down: Foreign investors pull a record amount of money from China. China lost a record $15 billion of foreign investment last quarter, state data showed.

America + South Korea said that they would start their next round of annual military drills next week, with the first exercises beginning on August 19th.

Agreement strengthens AUKUS submarine partnership Release

ECB to cut key rate six times by end of 2025, survey shows.

Saudi film industry calls on Hollywood to nurture local talent: Bloomberg reports film is a key part of a broader strategy to turn the local entertainment sector into a source of revenue as the kingdom diversifies beyond oil. 

Ministers from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo began discussions to reopen their border. Zambia closed the border on Saturday over a trade spat, delaying copper exports from the DRC.

Wary of Trump and Azerbaijan, businesses shun COP climate talks: Companies are anxiously wondering: Can we get hotel rooms? What about the autocratic regime hosting? What if Trump wins? Politico 

Seventy miles in hell: The Darién Gap was once considered impassable. Now hundreds of thousands of migrants are risking treacherous terrain, violence, hunger, and disease to travel through the jungle to the United States. Caitlin Dickerson

The new maritime statecraft: A deal between the US, Canada and Finland to build icebreakers is a model for smart friendshoring. Rana Foroohar

America prepares for a new nuclear-arms race: Its build-up could start as early as 2026. Economist

***  US Politics + Elections ***

AP: Harris is pushing joy. Trump paints a darker picture. Will mismatched moods matter?

+ Former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-NY) told Spectrum News NY1 crossing party lines to back Kamala Harris for president.

Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Will Kamala Harris’ short run kill the ‘permanent campaign’? Ben Smith

Elon Musk tried to interview Donald Trump on X but the livestream failed due to massive technical problems.

The FBI says it is conducting a criminal investigation of the hacking attack against Donald Trump’s campaign.

Break-in reported at Trump campaign office in Virginia: Politico reports: “It is rare to have the office of any political campaign or party broken into,” Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman said.

The problem is not AI. It’s the disbelief created by Trump. Zeynep Tufekci

Nancy Pelosi’s Art of Power: The former Speaker discusses how she hastened Joe Biden’s decision to drop out, her new memoir, and not getting “doggy doo-doo on your shoe.” The New Yorker

FEC chair seeks rejection of petition for rules to constrain the use of election 'deepfakes': IAIP reports Federal Election Commission Chairman Sean Cooksey and his Republican colleagues are asking Democratic members of the commission to dispense with a petition seeking to clarify that rules against “fraudulent misrepresentations” by political candidates and their allies applies to AI-generated deepfakes, at an upcoming open meeting.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm says her agency is doing everything it can to manage AI's massive energy demands.

"Made in America" chips: Two years ago, the US passed bipartisan legislation seeking to revitalize the country’s semiconductor manufacturing industry. Since then, the Biden administration has handed out almost $39 billion in grants, primarily to four companies to produce sophisticated chips.

AI industry leader expects early Air Force adoption of unmanned fighter jets: Unmanned fighter jets could be fielded "way" before the end of the decade, or sooner than the Air Force's planned timeline for operating Collaborative Combat Aircraft, Brandon Tseng, co-founder and president of ShieldAI, told Inside Defense.

Navy warship production in worst state in 25 years. What’s behind it? AP reports that labor shortage is one of myriad challenges that have led to backlogs in ship production and maintenance at a time when the Navy faces expanding global threats.

Bloomberg: Instagram views for major accounts drop with Meta shunning politics

+ Prominent political accounts saw fewer views, study says

+ Meta changed political stance to make services less combative

Brands love influencers (until politics get involved): Marketing firms are using artificial intelligence to help analyze influencers and predict whether they will opine about the election. NYT

Elon Musk’s political posts have comprised 17% of his feed on X this year, up from 2% in 2021.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Bloomberg: TSMC sales soared 45% in July on strong AI demand, shares gain

+ World’s leading contract chipmaker accelerated growth in July

+ TSMC serves as bellwether for AI and mobile chip demand

Here’s how people are actually using AI: Something peculiar and slightly unexpected has happened: people have started forming relationships with AI systems. Melissa Heikkilä

Khosla Ventures backed the latest AI unicorn, DevRev Inc.

X hit with Austrian data use complaint over AI training: Reuters reports Austrian advocacy group NOYB on Monday filed a complaint against social media platform X accusing the Elon Musk-owned company of training its artificial intelligence (AI) with users' personal data without their consent in violation of EU privacy law.

The billionaire suing Facebook to remove his face from AI scams: Mining executive’s lawsuit is one of first to threaten tech immunity protections, alleges company’s AI-powered ad systems amplify scams. WSJ

US regulators declined to approve the use of MDMA as a therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder.

EV sales are lagging in America — and it's causing panic: US EV adoption lags expectations, but the industry expects a tipping point within a few years. Here's how carmakers are coping with uncertainty. DFP

Why almost nobody is buying green hydrogen: The vast majority of projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel. Bloomberg

Hello, goodbye: The rise and decline of the celebrity video-greeting app Cameo: Personalised videos from celebrities such as Elijah Wood were a lockdown hit for a firm once valued at £1bn. Now A-listers have deserted it – though there’s always Nigel Farage. Guardian

Disney increased the price of its streaming services. Disney+ without ads will now cost $16 a month, more than double the launch price five years ago.

The boom in travel spending has slowed: WSJ reports hotels and airlines expect Americans to partake in less leisure travel and pare down the trips they take in the months ahead.

350m: The number of people worldwide who have a dating app on their phone. 

Is chaos the key to better economics? Peter Coy

*** Culture ***

A billionaire bought a lobster shack in the Hamptons. Then the trouble began: For decades the sleepy Long Island hamlet of Montauk and its beloved Lobster Deck resisted gentrification. Enter Wall Street heavyweight Marc Rowan. FT

*** Sport ***

China v USA: China’s state-run media used the nation’s gold medal haul at the Paris Olympics — which tied the US total of 40 — as the latest sign that it can rival America on the global stage. 

How the Olympic Games forever changed skate parks Bloomberg

Upcoming hosts for the Olympic Games:

🇮🇹 2026: Milan Cortina
🇺🇸 2028: Los Angeles
🇫🇷 2030: French Alps
🇦🇺 2032: Brisbane
🇺🇸 2034: Salt Lake City

Saudi Arabia’s wild plan to build 11 futuristic soccer stadiums for the 2034 World Cup: The audacious architecture will come with some serious challenges. FC


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal