Caracal Daily | September 13

Caracal Daily | September 13

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Friday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

APCO | Geopolitical Radar Q4 2024 - click here.

Politico: NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg will be new Munich Security Conference chief

Zelenskyy accuses Brazil of being pro-Russia, slams peace proposal: Politico reports Ukrainian president says Brasília-Beijing initiative shows “lack of respect” toward Kyiv’s position.

Radek Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, has said that Ukraine’s capacity to endure war with Russia is ‘not infinite.’

3 Red Cross workers killed in Ukraine by shelling: NYT reports the aid workers lost their lives as they were preparing to distribute heating supplies in preparation for winter in the region of Donetsk.

Russian forces are stepping up attacks on strategic city, Ukraine says: NYT reports bombardments are increasing in and around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, with water supplies now cut, while Russian troops simultaneously press a new counterattack in the Kursk region.

Putin: Long-range missile approval would put NATO at war with Russia: The Times reports the Russian president gives a stark warning as President Biden considers letting Ukraine use British Storm Shadows to strike his country.

Unilever’s dealing with Russia is ‘dancing with the devil’: The Times reports consumer goods company lambasted over its continued involvement in the country two and a half years after it invaded Ukraine.

Senior Israeli military intelligence official resigns over Oct. 7 Hamas attack: WSJ reports Yossi Sariel is second high-profile military officer to quit over failure to warn country.

Netanyahu’s other war: Conflict in Gaza hasn’t put an end to Israel’s constitutional crisis. Gershom Gorenberg

How to finish Japan’s business revolution: Tokyo-listed companies have become more friendly to shareholders, but the job is only half-done. Economist

A Japanese flag finally returns home, 80 years after World War II: WP reports: “I started to realize a while back that maybe it wasn’t the best home decor,” said Scott Stein, who donated the flag he inherited from his grandfather.

China poses policy challenge to Japan leadership hopefuls: Nikkei reports LDP candidate proposals include 'Asian NATO' and top-level diplomacy.

German warships set to sail through Taiwan Strait: sources: Nikkei reports Beijing says move would be a 'provocation' while analysts warn of confrontation.

China can avoid Japan’s lost decades if it follows Korea’s path: To build an innovation economy, policymakers in Beijing are emulating their peers in Seoul. Bloomberg

China warns carmakers of risks in building plants overseas, sources say: Reuters reports China's commerce ministry has warned the country's carmakers of the risks of making auto-related investments overseas at a recent meeting, said two people briefed about the matter, as they seek global expansion to counter slowing growth in their home market.

China strategy largely absent from Harris, Trump campaigns: Nikkei reports the US presidential debate referenced China 13 times, but mostly on tariffs.

Chinese cargo cranes at US ports pose espionage risk, probe finds: WSJ reports Chinese manufacturer ZPMC has pressured American ports for remote access to its machines, a congressional report says.

House panels finds US ports are ‘dangerously’ reliant on Chinese tech: Politico reports the report adds pressure on US ports to work with alternative crane manufacturers, if they can find them.

The making of a Chinese spy: How Beijing turned dissident who fled to US: Tang Yuanjun was once a leader in the China Democracy Party, but then his mother and his brother back home fell ill. Now he faces spying charges in the US. The Times

US Navy Seal unit that killed Osama bin Laden trains for China invasion of Taiwan: Elite commando team makes plans to help island nation in event Beijing launches war. FT

Reuters: Saudi crude oil supply to China set to rise to 46 mln bbls in Oct, sources say

United Arab Emirates fund in talks to invest in OpenAI: WSJ reports the ChatGPT creator has told potential backers its annualized revenue recently reached $4 billion.

Iraq touts deal with US to withdraw most troops by 2026: WSJ reports an official said the tentative plan would leave a small American force in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region to guard against Iranian-backed militias.

Iran turns to Hells Angels and other criminal gangs to target critics: Iran has cultivated ties with criminal networks in the West to carry out a recent wave of violent plots in the United States and Europe. WP

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second time this year, with a cut of a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.5%. 

Labour ban on TV junk food ads before 9pm to take effect in 2025: The Times reports online adverts promoting foods high in fat, salt and sugar will be banned at all times.

Spain has urged the European Union to “reconsider” tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, joining German opposition to the levies.

Canada to consider additional surtaxes on China imports: WSJ reports Canada is seeking input from households, provincial governments, unions, and businesses on such additional surtaxes.

The US reportedly wants to create two permanent seats on the UN Security Council for African states, and one for developing small island states.

United States vacks Africa’s UN Security Council bid, with a catch: NYT reports the announcement provides U.S. support to permanent council seats for African nations, though not new veto powers. But the path to adding members requires far more than White House approval.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

America’s election is mired in conflict: Donald Trump’s conspiracy machine is already gearing up for election night. Economist

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race among registered voters, 47% to 42%, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won.

NYT: $47 million flowed into Harris campaign in 24 hours after debate

Congressional Republicans try to hide from Trump’s debate performance: WP reports Republicans faced their own presidential nominee’s performance without the same clear-eyed analysis Democrats voiced after President Joe Biden’s  debate.

The Hill: Trump says he won’t do another debate with Harris

Reuters: US gasoline prices set to fall under $3/gallon as election nears

Bloomberg: Housing’s worst crisis in decades reverberates through 2024 race

+ Harris proposes 3 million units to ease housing shortage

+ Trump plans to open up federal lands for housing development

Harris seeks to build on debate momentum with push to flip North Carolina: NBC News reports the Democratic presidential nominee will hold two rallies in the state Thursday, followed by a pair of events in Pennsylvania on Friday.

In fight for Congress, Democrats run as ‘team normal,’ casting GOP as ‘weird’: In competitive districts, Democratic congressional candidates have pivoted from portraying Republicans as dangerous and extreme to ridiculing them as too odd to support. NYT

MT-SEN: The Cook Political Report today moved the Montana Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R) from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”

Republicans break with Trump, back Fed ahead of rate cut: Politico reports the former president said lowering borrowing costs is “something that they know they shouldn’t be doing” before November’s elections. GOP lawmakers disagree.

Mr ChatGPT and other AI power players are going to the White House to discuss AI’s massive thirst for energy CNN

America has an innovation and incumbency problem: Politicians should be taking questions of R&D and corporate power much more seriously. Gillian Tett

The AI bill driving a wedge through Silicon Valley: California’s Gavin Newsom has until September 30 to decide whether to sign legislation that will reach far beyond the state. FT

Edward Caban has resigned as commissioner of the NYPD, Mayor Eric Adams announced at a press briefing Thursday. 

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

More corporate communication teams are now reporting directly to the CEO, according to a new report from media monitoring platform, Memo.

Nikkei: Moderna to launch skin cancer vaccine as soon as 2025: CEO

Christie’s buys classic car auction house Gooding & Co: FT reports the London-based company looks to expand luxury offerings as art market weakens.

Flowcarbon, a climate company co-founded by Adam Neumann, is reportedly refunding investors after failing to bring its proposed crypto token to market.

SpaceX astronauts conduct spacewalk, putting new spacesuits to test: WSJ reports private-citizen astronauts traveling with SpaceX completed the first commercial spacewalk, pushing new boundaries for the Elon Musk-led company.

Reuters:  Mastercard to buy threat intelligence company Recorded Future for $2.65 bln 

The $200bn man: Larry Ellison’s wealth rebounds as Oracle joins AI boom: Database software maker has undergone an unlikely Wall Street renaissance. Richard Waters

Palantir is joining the S&P 500.

Mistral released its first multimodal model.

OpenAI releases new AI model that answers more complex questions: Bloomberg reports the new model, known internally as Strawberry, can handle complicated math and coding problems. 

OpenAI unveils new ChatGPT that can reason through math and science: NYT reports driven by new technology called OpenAI o1, the chatbot can test various strategies and try to identify mistakes as it tackles complex tasks.

Sarah O'Brien has departed Rivian to join Jony Ive's LoveFrom, which is reportedly in talks with OpenAI to create consumer products. 

Meta says it scraped all Australian adult users' public photos and posts on Facebook to train its AI, without an option to opt out.

Chats with AI bots found to damp conspiracy theory beliefs: Research runs counter to idea that it is nigh impossible to change some minds over popular but unevidenced ideas. FT

Bloomberg: Microsoft, cyber firms pursue changes after CrowdStrike outage

Bloomberg: Two Chinese AI chipmakers seek IPOs to mount challenge to Nvidia

+ Enflame, Biren are prepping to float shares as soon as in 2024

+ Investors are bidding up shares in AI chipmakers like Nvidia

*** Culture ***

Why many French have come to like “Emily in Paris”: Even if they may not want to admit it. Economist

They said her music was too exotic. Now she’s a classical star. Gabriela Ortiz, Carnegie Hall’s composer in residence this season, has spent her career channeling the sounds and sensibilities of Latin America. NYT

*** Sport ***

A revived Pac-12 to add four Mountain West schools, including Boise State: WP reports Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State are leaving the Mountain West to join Oregon State and Washington State in the Pac-12 in 2026-27.

The Athletic: Pac-12 adding Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State from Mountain West

PSG refuse League order to pay Mbappé disputed €55 million: Le Monde reports that Paris Saint-Germain announced that it would not pay the €55 million in unpaid dues to Kylian Mbappé, which the French league ordered it to pay the player.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal