Caracal Daily | September 19

Caracal Daily | September 19

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

🚨Breaking...

+ Hezbollah was hit by another wave of exploding devices, as walkie-talkies used by the group blew up in homes, cars and in operatives' hands.

Hezbollah walkie-talkies blow up across Lebanon in second wave of attacks: WSJ reports initial assessment from Tuesday’s attack is that pagers detonated because an explosive device was planted in the models.

Reuters: Hezbollah members wounded in Lebanon when pagers explode

Hundreds of Hezbollah Operatives’ Pagers Explode in Apparent Attack Across Lebanon: WSJ reports a number of casualties appears to top 1,000, according to a Hezbollah official.

Eight killed and thousands injured as Hizbollah pagers explode in Lebanon: FT reports the militant group blames Israel for what it describes as a ‘criminal attack’ and vows revenge.

Iranian Ambassador Mojtaba Amani wounded in Hezbollah explosion - report: Jerusalem Post reports news of the envoy's injury comes amid panic across the streets of Lebanon as hundreds of members of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah were seriously wounded.

Israel planted explosives in pagers sold to Hezbollah, officials say: Small amounts of explosive were implanted in beepers that Hezbollah had ordered from a Taiwanese company, according to American and other officials briefed on the operation. NYT

+ @AP: BREAKING: The pagers that exploded in Lebanon and Syria were made by Budapest-based BAC Consulting KFT, according to a statement released by Taiwanese company Gold Apollo, whose branding appeared on the devices.

Israel says war's 'center of gravity' moving north as Lebanon hit by second wave of device explosions: Le Monde reports after Tuesday's deadly pager blasts, new explosions on other communication devices were reported on Wednesday, with 20 people killed and more than 450 injured. Israel has not directly commented on the attacks.

A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now? Israel’s government is in turmoil and the United States is trying to head off a wider conflict in Lebanon, leaving officials to wonder about the timing of the attack. WP

How Israel built a modern-day Trojan horse: Exploding pagers: The Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah phones that exploded, defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an elaborate ruse. NYT

Exploding Hezbollah pagers: How did it happen? Lithium-ion batteries can catch fire or explode, but in the attack on pagers in Lebanon, the devices are more likely to have been hacked. DW

Zelensky to present Ukraine peace plan to Biden: The Times reports the announcement of plan comes as Ukrainian strikes hit a warehouse believed to contain guided missiles and shells deep in Russian territory.

Ukraine destroys huge Russian ammunition depot with groundbreaking missiles: Le Monde reports a night-time air attack by the Ukrainian army using new cruise missiles resulted in the destruction of a large warehouse filled with Russian long-range weapons.

Reuters: Russian nuclear test chief says Moscow is ready to resume testing 'at any moment'

After European governments slammed a planned trip by the International Monetary Fund to Russia, the IMF has indefinitely postponed the visit, according to Russian state-run media.

Romanian Foreign Minister Luminița Odobescu said that Russia’s violations of her country’s territory are intensifying.

Analysis: 'Smash iron woks' -- a Great Leap Forward idiom returns to China: A buzz phrase telling people to sacrifice everything reflects nation's current plight. Nikkei

Xi unleashes a crisis for millions of China’s best-paid workers: China created a professional class in record time. Now, just as swiftly, many of their dreams are being crushed. Bloomberg

Chinese trade boss comes to Brussels on "don’t tax my car" tour: Politico reports the whistle-stop tour of European capitals by Wang Wentao could end in a tough gig when he meets EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis.

Bloomberg: UK peer slams Tory boycott of Hong Kong, urges thaw with China

+ Mandelson faults Conservatives for mismanaging ties with China

+ Britain’s China relationship deteriorated after ‘golden era’

FT: India overtakes China in world’s biggest investable stock benchmark

US and India to hold first dialogue on Indian Ocean this fall: Nikkei reports: 'This is the new frontier,' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell tells Congress.

Asian NATO proposal by Japan's Ishiba seen as 'fantasy' in US: Nikkei reports: 'It's not what we're looking for,' Biden official says of LDP candidate's idea.

Busting the gangs not enough to stop boats, says new border chief: The Times reports Sir Keir Starmer should implement a strategy to deter migrants from crossing the Channel — as well as tackling people smugglers, according to Martin Hewitt.

Rwanda plan was un-British, says ex-PM John Major BBC

Westminster’s big two and the new race for political space: The UK’s duopoly of Labour and Conservatives has never looked more vulnerable. Robert Shrimsley

Britain and France plan new military agreement: The Times reports a new UK government launches charm offensive — including a reboot of the Lancaster House Agreement.

FT: Italian PM Meloni condemns EU’s green rules for struggling auto industry

EU picks tech enforcer who helped write its social-media rules: Bloomberg reports Henna Virkkunen, 52, has been tapped for the role of executive vice president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy. If confirmed, she’d be in charge of enforcing the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act, two rulebooks put in place to monitor how large tech companies control content and their impact on competition. She’ll also be responsible for fostering new European tech champions. 

US Intel's factory delay adds to Germany's economic woes: DW reports US chipmaker Intel has announced it is postponing a $30 billion investment in Germany due to financial problems at the firm. But is the German government still committed to the investments?

The EU’s chips plan implodes as Intel pauses investments: Politico reports EU semiconductor struggles are a bad omen for industrial policy plans.

Sudan: The Biden administration is launching a new effort to revive deadlocked peace talks on Sudan at the upcoming UN General Assembly in an effort to tackle a conflict that spiraled into a geopolitical proxy war and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

A hegemonic state takes shape in Venezuela: The consolidation of a totalitarian regime poses a dilemma to the opposition: continue the electoral strategy or find an elusive new approach. AQ

Bloomberg: Argentina recession deepened as Milei shock therapy stung

US to convene global AI safety summit in November: Reuters reports the Biden administration plans to convene a global safety summit on artificial intelligence, it said on Wednesday, as Congress continues to struggle with regulating the technology. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will host on Nov. 20-21 the first meeting of the International Network of AI Safety Institutes in San Francisco to "advance global cooperation toward the safe, secure, and trustworthy development of artificial intelligence."

***  US Politics + Elections ***

+ @MorningBrew: BREAKING: The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 BPS. Jerome Powell went big.

POTUS poll 1: A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among registered voters in a multi-candidate field, 49% to 45%.

POTUS poll 2: A new Fox News poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 50% to 48%.

Teamsters Union won’t endorse Trump or Harris: WSJ reports the labor group said it would stay neutral for the first time in nearly three decades.

Harris campaign says she will meet the press (on her terms): NYT reports the vice president, who has granted few interviews as the Democratic nominee, is now ramping things up. But she is likely to focus on local outlets and nontraditional venues where voters get their news.

Attorney General promises exhaustive probe of apparent Trump assassination attempt: WSJ reports top lawmakers signal willingness to grant cash infusion to Secret Service to bolster protective measures.

Second apparent assassination attempt on Trump prompts alarm abroad: NYT reports there is widespread concern that the November election will not end well and that American democracy has frayed to the breaking point.

How the Trump campaign ran with rumors about pet-eating migrants—After being told they weren’t true: Springfield, Ohio, city officials were contacted by Vance’s team and said the claims were baseless. It didn’t matter and now the town is in chaos. WSJ

Donald Trump says Fed’s half-point rate cut shows US economy is ‘very bad’: FT reports the former president adds that central bank could be ‘playing politics’ as it reduces interest rates ahead of election.

Inside Trump’s finances: Boasts, billions, and the price of losing: The White House hopeful and property tycoon claims anything he touches turns to gold. A new book, Lucky Loser, suggests otherwise. The Times

CNN: Iranian hackers sent stolen Trump campaign information to Biden campaign

Bloomberg: US faces a deficit of 6 million workers in less than a decade

+ Population seen growing at much faster pace than workforce

+ Mismatch between change in labor force and jobs in high demand

FT: US House votes down government funding package as shutdown looms

The man quietly rewriting American privacy law: Lobbyist Andrew Kingman has reshaped American policy on a key tech issue — without ever setting foot on Capitol Hill. Politico

The $8.5bn legal battle shaking the US fashion industry: Federal Trade Commission has sued to block the owner of Coach buying rival brand Michael Kors. FT

Washington sees AI everywhere: Politico reports from thier AI & Tech Summit, Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) hinted once again that rather than one broad stroke, Congress’ approach to AI might look more like the efforts described by Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas within their agencies — studying the technology’s impact closely in any given area and then responding piece by piece accordingly.

Congress promised AI rules to protect elections. It’s not happening. Politico reports despite urgent warnings, Congress is on track to leave the fight against deepfakes and deception to states and agencies.

+ According to a by Public Citizen, 19 states have passed legislation about AI and elections in an attempt to fill the gap

Newsom says he’s concerned about ‘chilling effect’ of AI bill: Bloomberg reports California Governor Gavin Newsom said he is concerned about a potential “chilling effect” on the development of artificial intelligence posed by a bill to regulate the new technology passed by the state legislature. State lawmakers on Aug. 28 approved SB 1047, a bill that would hold artificial intelligence companies legally liable if they don’t take required safety measures and their technology later causes major harm. Newsom must now sign the legislation into law or veto it.

+ Governor says he’s worried about the impact on competitiveness

+ Newsom gave his strongest signal yet that he’s considering vetoing state Sen. Scott Wiener’s AI safety legislation.

+ Newsom signs other legislation to ban election AI deepfakes

Hollywood bucks Nancy Pelosi on this major California bill: Actors Mark Ruffalo, Sean Astin, and Rosie Perez are urging Gov. Gavin Newsom to sign a major AI safety bill that’s currently sitting on his desk. Politico

Gavin Newsom signs election ‘deepfake’ ban in rebuke to Elon Musk: Politico reports California now has the nation’s most aggressive law in place on AI-generated content before the November election.

Newsom signs laws to protect Hollywood from fake AI actors: Politico reports the move comes as celebrities from Mark Ruffalo to Rosie Perez speak out about risks of the evolving technology.

SFC: Mayor Breed says downtown SF is coming back to life. Her opponents say it’s still on life support

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Ban warnings fly as users dare to probe the “thoughts” of OpenAI’s latest model: OpenAI does not want anyone to know what o1 is “thinking" under the hood. ArsTech

CNBC: Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion to invest in AI data centers and power

+ The Global Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Investment Partnership is initially looking to raise $30 billion for new and existing data centers.

+ The fundraising, which could total $100 billion, will also be used to invest in the energy infrastructure needed to power AI workloads.

+ Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the initiative brings “together financial and industry leaders to build the infrastructure of the future and power it in a sustainable way.”

BlackRock and Microsoft plan $30bn fund to invest in AI infrastructure: FT reports Nvidia and Abu Dhabi-backed MGX will join effort as energy-intensive tech strains power and data grids.

Microsoft’s hypocrisy on AI: Can artificial intelligence really enrich fossil-fuel companies and fight climate change at the same time? The tech giant says yes. Karen Hao

Google seeks authenticity in the age of AI with new content labeling system: ARS Tech reports the C2PA system aims to give context to search results, but trust problems run deeper than AI tech.

T-Mobile strikes deal with OpenAI: WSJ reports companies say new AI platform will harvest data on customer interactions to improve service.

AI-powered weed-killing robots threaten a $37 billion market: Bloomberg reports crop-chemical companies are rethinking business models as evolving tech promises to slash herbicide use.

Dell is cutting up to 26,000 jobs, potentially reducing its workforce to under 100,000. This makes it the largest layoff in the company's history. Driven by an AI-first restructuring strategy, more cuts are expected. 

General Catalyst — the US-based venture capital firm that funded AI startups Mistral and Anduril — announced Tuesday it is stepping up its Washington influence game with the launch of a new global policy institute. Called the General Catalyst Institute and helmed by tech industry veteran Teresa Carlson.

Huawei trifold phones being flipped for $7,000 even before release: Nikkei reports the limited availability causes prices to soar on online marketplaces.

Reuters: Musk's Neuralink gets FDA's breakthrough device tag for 'Blindsight' implant

23andMe board resigns in new blow to DNA-testing company: WSJ reports all seven independent directors of DNA-testing company 23andMe resigned, following a protracted negotiation with CEO Anne Wojcicki over her plan to take the company private.

Hgen draws on lessons from Tesla and SpaceX to drive down the cost of hydrogen: TC reports hydrogen might be touted as a fuel of the future that stands ready to decarbonize shipping and industry, but for the 90 million metric tons used today in everything from fertilizer production to chemical manufacturing, 96% is derived directly from natural gas, oil, or coal. For instance, one of the most common ways is through steam reformation of methane, which basically cooks methane so the hydrogen falls off, releasing carbon dioxide in the process.

*** Culture ***

Vogue’s Anna Wintour? She has a fatal flaw: The legendary editor has stubbornly kept the same look for 40 years — so she’s never going to be great at spotting what’s new. Camilla Long

The first ever Lunch with the FT: Marco Pierre White: Back in 1994, the ‘rudest chef in London’ talked about hating taxi drivers, shooting pheasants and what it takes to win a Michelin star. FT

*** Sport ***

The surprise team marching all over the NFL: The New Orleans Saints are off to a historic start after destroying the Dallas Cowboys in a week highlighted by upsets and an improbable deep-passing barrage. WSJ

How Ferrari became genuine rival to McLaren (just in time for Hamilton): Italian team may decide where drivers title ends up this season, and are very much in contention for constructors’ championship themselves, which bodes well with British driver joining in 2025. The Times

Manchester City's 'trial of the century' opens in England: The Mancunian club is facing 115 charges before a Premier League committee for breaching UEFA's financial fair play rules between 2009 and 2018. Le Monde

England reportedly risks Euros football ban over regulator plans: Politico reports UEFA warned the UK government about “concerns” that a proposed independent football regulator could lead to “government interference” in the sport.

Starmer refuses to budge on football regulator despite UEFA threat: The Times reports the prime minister says his plans comply with the rules and ministers are in touch with the governing body, which suggested England could be banned from tournaments.

AFP: White Sox heading for worst season in MLB history

Rogers buys BCE’s stake in Maple Leaf Sports for $3.5 billion: Bloomberg reports Rogers Communications Inc. is buying BCE Inc.’s 37.5% stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. for C$4.7 billion ($3.5 billion), giving the telecommunications giant a majority stake in the sports company whose most valuable assets include the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey club and the Toronto Raptors.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal