Caracal Daily | October 8

Caracal Daily | October 8

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

One year after Oct. 7, Israel sees a future at war: The Hamas-led attack has convinced the country that it must take the battle to its enemies. WSJ

The war that won’t end: How Oct. 7 sparked a year of conflict: As war in the Middle East spreads, the original conflict between Israel and Hamas has persisted. This is why. NYT

The year that changed Israel: International criticism of the Gaza war has led many Israelis to retreat inwards. Feeling abandoned, they have backed the government’s military campaigns. FT

‘The land is full of blood’: An Israeli kibbutz where Oct. 7 never ends: WP reports a year after the Hamas attacks, Kibbutz Beeri yearns to move on, but the calendar refuses to turn. War has become the background noise of whatever future is coming.

'October 7 sent us back into survival mode': Divided Israeli society is afraid and confused: Yanay the soldier, Reuven and Avi the kibbutzniks, Dana the party planner and Léah, who works in the theater, have different political views. But they all share the same fears. Le Monde

AP: US spends a record $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since last Oct. 7

Campuses are calmer, but they are not normal, students and faculty say: NYT reports a year of war in Gaza has left college students and faculty feeling shaken and angry, with the world and with each other.

What I’m thinking about on the first anniversary of the war Thomas L. Friedman

A weekend of tension between Macron and Netanyahu: Le Monde reports the French president and the Israeli prime minister had a telephone conversation on Sunday, after tense exchanges triggered by Macron's declarations calling for a halt to arms deliveries to Israel.

Putin’s ‘merchant of death’ is back in the arms business: WSJ reports Russian gunrunner Viktor Bout is trying to broker the sale of small arms to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants.

Intense urban battles pitch Russia’s numbers against Ukraine’s agility: WSJ reports in a high-tech war shaped by drones, precision weapons and electronic jammers, it is still boots on the ground that take and hold territory.

How Iran’s dark fleet of oil ships smuggles black gold to China: A network of ageing tankers is used to evade sanctions and transport oil from Iran to China, with dangerous consequences for marine life. The Times

Michael Kovrig, former hostage of the Chinese state: Three years after his release, the Canadian tells his story to The Economist.

China demands schoolteachers hand in their passports: FT reports authorities make travelling abroad difficult for growing number of public sector employees.

China has ramped up shipbuilding. Satellite images reveal the alarming scale. America needs to expand shipyards and work with allies to keep its fleet battle-ready. Brady Africk + Mackenzie Eaglen

How the UK left coal behind for good: The decommissioning of the last remaining power plant makes the country the first G7 member to phase out coal for good. Le Monde

Ireland struggles to consolidate role as data centre hub: Dublin goes from ‘leader to flounderer’ as planning and energy supply problems lead tech groups to invest elsewhere. FT

Bloomberg: Bolsonaro-backed candidates pull ahead in Brazil mayor elections

The old US economic policy is dying and the new cannot be born: Industrial rivalry and tensions with China frame a confused debate about the pressures of globalisation. Adam Tooze

The perils of America’s chips strategy: Progress has been made at home, but what comes next abroad will make a big difference. Rana Foroohar

How cannabis and opium poppies became national security issues: After supply chain disruptions that made critical medicines scarce, a federal effort is underway to ensure domestic stocks of pharmaceutical ingredients. NYT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Nearly three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill staffers (72%) say Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, helped partly by swing voters, according to Punchbowls News' latest survey results.

AP: Voters in North Carolina and Georgia have bigger problems than politics. Helene changed everything

Pennsylvania is key for the presidency. The state is stressed out. Legal maneuvering, election skepticism and the prospect of a lengthy vote count have the state on edge. WSJ

Why both Harris and Trump want more border security now: WSJ reports Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are taking on stricter border stances in the 2024 presidential election. A top Democrat and a Republican strategist explain how the parties’ policies have changed.

Porn industry jumps into the presidential campaign, targeting Project 2025: NYT reports in seven swing states, the industry’s websites will feature ads decrying the conservative policy blueprint’s proposed ban on pornography.

WP: Vance says Trump administration would end funding to Planned Parenthood

Trump allies threaten Deloitte contracts after employee shares Vance chats: WP reports Republicans are targeting $3 billion in federal contracts because a consultant disclosed exchanges unconnected to his work to a reporter.

The ‘crypto punks’ behind Trump’s murky new business venture: NYT reports the serial entrepreneurs behind Donald J. Trump’s new cryptocurrency project have left a trail of lawsuits, unpaid debt and tax liens.

Reuters: Trump threatens a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico

Donald Trump’s transition chief says appointees must prove ‘loyalty’: FT reports billionaire investor Howard Lutnick dismisses Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 as ‘radioactive.’

The rise of Donald Trump Jr., crown prince of MAGA world: The eldest son has a mission for the next four years: keeping “snakes” out of the White House. Molly Ball

Donald Trump fans ask: Where’s Nigel Farage? (And — who is he, again?): Politico repots the Reform UK leader is stuck at home amid accusations he’s been an absent new MP.

Why RFK Jr. backers in Nevada are now betting on Trump: Harris, meanwhile, sees more energy from young voters who were sour on Biden. WSJ

Inside the cordial — but not close — relationship between Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi SFC

How San Francisco became a launching pad for the most powerful women in politics LAT

California Democrats dream of flipping the House with Kamala Harris’s star power: FT reports the ability of the next president to govern could hinge on a handful of contests in the deep blue state.

The tech lobbying group helping to broaden the First Amendment’s reach: NYT reports that NetChoice, backed by tech giants including Meta and Google, has successfully argued in court that Big Tech hosts protected speech.

Will Google be broken up? Biggest US antitrust victory since Microsoft could still be too little, too late, as judge considers how to rein in search giant. FT

Philip Banks, embattled top Adams aide, resigns: NYT reports Banks, the deputy mayor for public safety and a close friend of Mayor Eric Adams, is among the administration officials whose phones were seized by investigators.

City haul: How much longer can the Eric Adams machine last? Andrew Rice

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Big Tech has cozied up to nuclear energy: Major tech firms, in search of carbon pollution-free electricity for data centers, are helping to revive nuclear energy in the US. The Verge

Fighting back data centers, one small town at a time: As the tech industry pushes to build more of the giant facilities, residents in some communities are trying to block the projects – and winning. WP

AI will drive broad deflation, Silicon Valley pioneer Vinod Khosla says: But as the price of expertise falls toward zero, a new age of abundance can begin, Khosla says—if people let it. Steven Rosenbush

Reuters: Meta, challenging OpenAI, announces new AI model that can generate video with sound

Meta unveils AI video models, as tech giants race to produce Hollywood-style clips: WP reports Meta unveils Movie Gen -- its most advanced effort to create video clips from text prompts.

Microsoft’s AI story is getting complicated: Blowout capital spending, financial reporting changes and the relationship with OpenAI are making investors think twice. WSJ

How to use AI to create social videos that people will actually want to watch: This is how to use AI as an assistant in your content creation without sounding like a robot. FC

Shh, ChatGPT. That’s a secret. Your chatbot transcripts may be a gold mine for AI companies. Lila Shroff

Gen AI makes legal action cheap — and companies need to prepare HBR

Sam Altman’s imperial reach: The tech leader’s boundless ambition is putting AI, and the world, on a dangerous path. Robert Wright

Frances Haugen makes the case for more whistleblowing in the age of AI: The Facebook whistleblower said cash-for-tips programs are vital for getting those who speak out access to legal support. WSJ

First instincts vs second thoughts, which side are you on? Studying the way we stumble into cognitive traps could be key to understanding how to beat misinformation. FT

Reese Witherspoon recalls how she “couldn’t keep the lights on” in early days of production company despite ‘Big Little Lies,’ ‘Gone Girl’ success: THR reports Witherspoon joined Laura Dern and Octavia Spencer at Hello Sunshine's Shine Away event on Saturday, as she looked back at some of her early producing struggles.

*** SOTD *** 

French Press by Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever Spotify

*** Culture ***

WSJ: $200 million ‘Joker’ sequel is a box office bust

HBO Bitcoin doc ‘Money Electric’ hunts for Satoshi Nakamoto—see a first look at the trailer: Fast Company spoke with filmmaker Cullen Hoback about his new movie, which airs on HBO and streams on Max. FC

33 sun-soaked photos that capture the golden era of surfing ATI

*** Sport ***

American ultra runner crushes Appalachian Trail speed record: American Tara Dower sets the speed record on the Appalachian Trial in astonishing 40 days, 18 hours and five minutes. SI

After Helene’s ‘historic’ damage, Appalachian Trail may need years to recover: Downed trees and flooding have left the trail impassable in many of the 14 states on its route. NYT

What does college football have to do with college? The question isn’t new. But seismic changes to college sports, embraced by Coach Deion Sanders and his University of Colorado Buffaloes, have made it more relevant than ever. NYT

Man City victory as Premier League’s sponsorship rules declared unlawful: The Times reports two deals with Etihad and First Abu Dhabi Bank deemed to have been ‘unfairly blocked’ in landmark decision which will spark huge concern among rival clubs.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal