Caracal Daily | December 2

Caracal Daily | December 2

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Rebel groups attack Kurdish-held areas in north-western Syria: FT reports Islamists’ shock offensive threatens to draw in other forces in fractured nation.

+ Russian and Syrian air forces intensified their attacks on Syrian rebels, who are advancing south after seizing most of Aleppo, the country’s second-biggest city.

Syrian rebels regrouped, seized on weakness of government’s key allies: WP reports the rebels have made stunning gains against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah distracted by other conflicts.

Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo in an embarrassing rout for Bashar al-Assad: Russia and Iran, the Syrian dictator’s closest allies, will be of less help than they used to be. Economist

In Syria, a sudden reminder of a war that never ended: WP reports the dramatic unraveling of the past days might show how hollow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s supremacy was.

Syria’s Assad trapped by rebel advance and refusal to compromise: Rapid capture of Aleppo from government forces underlines regime’s fragility despite Russian and Iranian help. FT

What next for Syria after anti-Assad rebels seized Aleppo? The largest rebel group, HTS, struck while President Assad’s allies in Russia and Iran were distracted — reigniting a civil war that had stagnated in recent years. The Times

In Syria, Assad is trapped by his intransigence and the collapse of his regime: The resurgence of the insurgency, which has regained control of Aleppo, highlights the Syrian government's failure to make concessions, inability to implement reform and break out of its isolation. Laure Stephan

China tensions prompt US Navy race to reload missiles at sea: WSJ a US destroyer can fire dozens of cruise missiles within minutes, but reloading back in port can take two months—a potentially fatal weakness.

Taiwan’s Lai Signals hope for continued US support under Trump: WSJ reports during his visit to the US, Taiwan’s president appeared to respond to some of the criticisms Trump has directed at the country.

Biden’s farewell to China’s tech sector: A new type of forbidden chip: WSJ reports the US has restricted the export of memory chips used in AI applications, but a delayed announcement gave Chinese companies a chance to stock up.

Biden targets China’s chip industry with wider trade bans: NYT reports new rules prohibit the sale of certain types of chips and equipment to China, in an effort to close loopholes and cement the Biden administration’s legacy in countering the US rival.

US hits China’s chip industry with new export controls: FT reports parting measures by Biden administration aim to slow Beijing’s development of AI with military applications.

Bloomberg: US tightens curbs on China’s access to AI memory and chips tools

+ New rules affect 27 types of chip design and fabrication tools

+ US to sanction 140 Chinese entities; curb US, foreign-made HBM

How China will strike back at Trump: Xi Jinping has set out his tariff red lines. What if America crosses them? Economist

Israel builds bases in central Gaza, a sign it may be there to stay: NYT reports in recent months, soldiers have demolished more than 600 buildings to create a buffer area and expanded a network of bases, a New York Times analysis shows.

Elon Musk is attacking Britain. Former PMs are building ties: FT reports a London-based VC has connected Boris Johnson and the Tesla chief, who Tony Blair has praised as ‘an extraordinary innovator.’

FT: UK ‘willing to consider’ allowing Saudi Arabia to join trilateral fighter jet programme

Macron's visit to Saudi Arabia to focus on economic cooperation: Le Monde reports the French president hopes to secure contracts for France, even as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman scales back his ambitious mega-projects at the heart of Vision 2030, the kingdom's strategy of modernization and economic diversification.

French government risks being toppled this week: Le Mode reports PM Michel Barnier, who lacks a majority in the Assemblée Nationale, is expected to use article 49.3 of the Constitution to push his social security budget through without a vote. Such a move could trigger a no-confidence vote that is likely to succeed.

Bloomberg: French premier offers final-hour budget concession to Le Pen

+ French government aims to avoid collapse in no-confidence vote

+ Prime minister announces concession after talks with Le Pen

Le Pen squares off with French government and markets in budget showdown: WSJ reports the far-right leader holds the fate of the country’s government in her hands, as a battle royale over the national budget reaches its denouement and investor anxieties rise.

Rassemblement National’s Jordan Bardella threatens to bring down French government: FT reports prime minister Michel Barnier makes last-minute concession to RN.

Jordan Bardella threatens to oust French prime minister Michel Barnier: The Times reports the head of the populist hard-right National Rally party said the government would need a ‘miracle’ and a U-turn on its social security budget to survive.

France riled by Trump pick of Charles Kushner as Paris envoy: FT reports the establishment reacts to president-elect’s choice with a mix of resignation and muted scorn.

Georgian PM praises police for forceful crackdown on protests: The Times reports amid violent clashes over the government’s decision to halt EU membership talks, the prime minister blames protesters ‘acting on foreign orders.’

+ Georgian police arrested Zurab Japaridze, an opposition leader, during a fourth consecutive night of protests.

Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, arrived in Kyiv as part of an unannounced trip to Ukraine.

How Ukraine uses cheap AI-guided drones to deadly effect against Russia: Ukraine is making tens of thousands of them. Economist

Vladimir Putin to reject Donald Trump’s opening peace offer, says Russian tycoon: FT reports Konstantin Malofeyev says Russian president to engage in talks only if they include broader conflicts.

Russia’s economy is slowing, opening fissures over policy: The slowdown is worrying for the Kremlin but not serious enough to significantly hobble its war effort. NYT

Russia’s plunging currency spells trouble for its war effort: Supplies from China are about to become more expensive. Economist

Inside the effort to market Russia and Putin to Africans: The African Initiative is part of an opaque network of groups that Western officials and analysts say the Kremlin uses to spread Russian influence in Africa. WP

Biden opens the only trip of his presidency to Sub-Saharan Africa: NYT reports the president stopped in Cape Verde on his way to Angola, where he will highlight American commitment to Africa in the economic competition against China.

The billion-dollar railways driving Biden’s last overseas Trip: On his visit to Angola, the president will stress US support for infrastructure aimed at countering Chinese influence in the region. Bloomberg

US faces stiff test against Chinese dominance in Africa: When President Biden visits Angola today, he will promote a rail project meant to show America’s commitment and to counter Chinese influence. NYT

EU commissioner pitches ‘Europe first’ in response to Donald Trump: FT reports Stéphane Séjourné says ‘biggest fear’ is for bloc to become ‘collateral victim’ of global trade war.

Bloomberg: Milei touts $50 billion from investors eyeing 30-year loopholes in Argentina

+ Early bids under marquee plan only amount to about 15% of goal

+ Argentine leader under pressure to scrap stifling FX controls

Mexican cartels lure chemistry students to make fentanyl: Criminals turn college campuses into recruitment hubs, recruiting chemistry students in Mexico with big paydays. NYT

Justin Trudeau pays Donald Trump Florida visit in bid to avert North American trade war: FT reports the US president-elect has threatened to hit Canadian imports with steep tariffs as soon as he re-enters office.

The risk of Mexico being shut out of North America is rising: Investors should not assume that Trump’s tariff threat is a bluff. Michael Stott

Trump is playing high-stakes poker on tariffs: And the US consumer market is now the world’s richest chip. Rana Foroohar 

Trump’s tariff threats stir currency markets: WSJ reports the US dollar strengthened after the president-elect said he would impose 100% tariffs on countries that try to replace the greenback as the world’s reserve currency.

Will Trump’s dollar diplomacy roil global trade? The President-elect is demanding the so-called BRICS countries pledge fealty to the greenback, or risk a new wave of tariffs. DealBook

A roadmap through the drama and realities of Trump’s trade war: Trump’s tariffs could go in many different directions. Understanding the strategy from his first term, and the priorities of his new team, reveals a potential path ahead. Bloomberg

The secret Pentagon war game that offers a stark​ warning for our times: The devastating outcome of the 1983 game reveals that nuclear escalation inevitably spirals out of control. NYT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

President Biden pardons son Hunter: WSJ reports the move is an about-face after the president previously vowed not to pardon his son, who was convicted on federal gun and tax charges.

President Biden pardons his son Hunter, reversing his long-standing pledge: WP reports Biden had promised not to pardon his son, who was convicted of gun-related charges and had pleaded guilty in a tax case. “Raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice,” the president said.

In pardoning his son, Biden echoes some of Trump’s complaints: NYT reports President Biden complained about selective prosecution and political pressure in a system he has spent his public life defending.

‘Family ahead of the country’: Joe Biden’s pardon of son Hunter triggers backlash: FT reports Republicans accuse president of hypocrisy in his defence of rule of law in America.

Joe Biden’s broken promise on Hunter pardon is ammunition for Trump: The Times reports the president-elect has raised the prospect of pardoning the January 6 rioters.

WP: Trump raises prospect of pardons for Jan. 6 crimes

A Connecticut town that swung toward Trump offers clues for Democrats: Even in the Naugatuck Valley, a Democratic area in a blue state, economic frustrations pushed some voters toward the Republican nominee. WP

It's not surprising that America put someone in power who promises to bring down the price of eggs Anton Brender

Biden’s economic legacy tied to fate of his industrial policies: Companies have committed nearly $400bn since he signed flagship legislation. But will it last? FT

Trump and allies blur the lines between politician and influencer: WP reports the president-elect and some in his proposed Cabinet are adopting influencer tactics to hawk products, boost political points and promote their personal brands.

Musk’s rivals fear he will target them with his new power: Car companies and tech giants are scrambling for allies in the incoming Trump administration. WSJ

Texas offers Trump a blueprint for illegal-immigration crackdown: State responsible for $11 billion ‘Operation Lone Star’ effort is looking to aid the president-elect’s proposed border restrictions. WSJ

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Amazon Web Services CEO promises ‘needle-moving’ AI updates: WSJ reports as the cloud-computing leader kicks off its re:Invent conference, Chief Executive Matt Garman says there is no end in sight to the artificial intelligence race.

WSJ: AI ads can look weird. Brands like Coca-Cola are making them anyway.

OpenAI explores advertising as it steps up revenue drive: ChatGPT maker hires advertising talent from big tech rivals. FT

OpenAI targets 1bn users in next phase of growth: FT reports ChatGPT-maker aims for big boost from new AI products, Apple partnership and infrastructure investment.

Bloomberg: Intel CEO Gelsinger leaves as chipmaker’s turnaround flounders

+ Company’s CFO and product CEO to serve as interim leaders

+ Once industry leader, Intel has struggled in shift toward AI

Intel announces retirement of CEO Pat Gelsinger: BusinessWire reports David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus named interim Co-CEOs. Holthaus also appointed to the newly created position of CEO of Intel Products. Frank Yeary named interim executive chair.

MicroStrategy bought another $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, the fourth consecutive weekly purchase announced by the crypto hedge fund proxy.

Northern Star to buy De Grey Mining in $3.26 billion stock deal: WSJ reports for Northern Star, the deal secures one of the gold industry’s biggest undeveloped projects.

Bloomberg: Stellantis reels after CEO’s early departure leaves void

+ Chairman Elkann heads committee that takes over from Tavares

+ Carmaker is under pressure to boost sales, tackle overcapacity

Stellantis shares slide after chief executive Carlos Tavares resigns: FT reports world’s fourth-largest carmaker has suffered a sharp decline in profits this year.

Jaguar to unveil ‘woke on wheels’ electric car: The company’s latest generation e-vehicle has been called ‘the last chance saloon’ by doubters. Will it have been worth the wait? The Times

Volkswagen pulls out of Xinjiang and struggles to keep up in China: Le Monde reports undermined by allegations of Uyghur forced labor, the German giant has sold its plant and test track in Xinjiang and has been overtaken by strong local competition in China, the world's largest market.

Unilever wants to sell food brands with about $1 billion in combined sales.

Surge of online spending means more Americans stay home on Black Friday: FT reports extended discounts have reduced the importance of the biggest promotional day of the US holiday shopping season.

It’s always Black Friday on TikTok shop: Welcome to a world where every day is Black Friday, and every scroll could lead to your next purchase. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Francis Ford Coppola found himself outside Hollywood. He’s okay with that. The 85-year-old legendary director doesn’t care what critics say about “Megalopolis.” Still, he is apologetic for being “the jerk that started numbers on movies.” WP

+ “Moana 2,” “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” combined to set a record Thanksgiving weekend at the box office. 

‘Brain rot’ named word of the year by Oxford University Press: The term is among several highlighted by the publisher of the Oxford English Dictionary — test your knowledge with our quiz. The Times

*** Sport ***

Kyle McCord outplays Will Howard, and more Ohio State woes Stewart Mandel

The Dallas Cowboys + New York Giants was the most-watched NFL broadcast this season: The Cowboys’ 27-20 win over the Giants attracted 38.5 million viewers, the network projected on Friday, up 14% from a year ago.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal