Caracal Daily | November 13

Caracal Daily | November 13

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Blinken in emergency Brussels trip on Ukraine after Trump win: AFP reports US Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed Tuesday on an emergency trip to Brussels to discuss how to support Ukraine with European allies in the race before Donald Trump takes the White House.

Ukraine seeks to win over Trump with natural resources and troop proposals: Two ideas included in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ were crafted with the Republican’s presidency in mind. FT

Ukraine updates: Kyiv says 50,000 Russians fighting in Kursk: DW reports President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow has had to pull troops from other regions to beat back Ukraine's offensive.

3.5m: The number of people living in Ukraine’s occupied regions (excluding Crimea).

Volodymyr Zelensky faces a power struggle in 2025: As morale ebbs in Ukraine there is talk of a change at the top. Economist

A Russian navy warship equipped with hypersonic missiles has conducted drills in the English Channel, according to Russian state media.

Liz Truss spent her last days in government preparing for nuclear fallout, after US intelligence indicated that Vladimir Putin could drop a nuclear bomb in Ukraine, according to an updated version of her autobiography. 

There are seven million migrant workers in Britain’s job market – meaning one in five jobs in Britain is filled by someone born overseas.

Fiction captures the forces that led to Brexit: Alan Hollinghurst, a Booker-prizewinning novelist, returns with a new, evocative yarn. Economist

Archbishop of Canterbury resigns over UK church abuse scandal: NYT reports that Justin Welby, the leader of 85 million Anglicans worldwide, announced his resignation after a report found he had taken insufficient action over abuse claims.

UK's Starmer pledges 81% emissions cut by 2035 at COP29: Le Monde reports Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled the new target as he attended the beginning of the climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where he is one of the only G20 leaders to show up.

UK to trial sales of blockchain-based gilts within two years: Bloomberg the UK plans to begin issuing digital gilts within the next two years, as the government latches onto technology it’s been slow to embrace.

+ Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a digital issuance trial in her Mansion House speech to the City of London on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Chancellors traditionally use the forum to announce policies to support the financial industry.

+ The new Labour government is striving to modernize its financial markets, in this case by using blockchain technology that underpins Bitcoin to “tokenize” its government debt. The hope is that it will make gilt trading faster and cheaper.

In Europe, Instagram ads are about to get less personal: WSJ reports Meta faces pressure to ask before using data to target ads or train artificial intelligence.

Amsterdam struggles to quell unrest days after attacks on Israeli soccer fans: WSJ reports violent assaults set off charged debate over antisemitism and migration in the Netherlands.

Germany will hold an early election on February 23, 2025. 

Can a political earthquake like Donald Trump's election happen in France? As in the United States, polarization is at work in France, fueled by feelings of relegation among the working class and of downgrading among the middle class. Françoise Fressoz

French newspapers to sue Elon Musk’s X over copyright violations: The Times reports a coalition of media outlets say the billionaire’s social media platform is using their content without paying for it.

Le Monde and several French newspapers sue X over 'neighboring rights' payments: AFP reports several news organizations accused the social media platform formerly known as Twitter of running their content without payment.

LNG exports could prove crucial bargaining chip in US-EU trade talks: FT reports share prices of companies in the sector have surged on expectations of higher natural gas exports to Europe.

Trump's return heralds lobbying push by Japan automakers: Nikkei reports Toyota, Honda, Nissan raised total spending 25% in his first term amid protectionist tilt.

Japan PM Ishiba set to meet China's Xi on Friday in Peru: Nikkei reports the leaders intend to confirm importance of high-level dialogue.

South Korean president refreshes golf skills after years to prep for Trump: WP reports South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is preparing for the return of golf diplomacy under President-elect Donald Trump.

China-backed megaport to open in Peru as Belt and Road hub: Nikkei reports Lima touts efficiency and capacity as US raises concerns over military use.

Chinese army unveils robot wolf, the new leader of the AI pack: The Times reports the Quadrupedal Unmanned Ground Vehicle Wolf is a step up from recent robodogs — it can run, obey commands … and has its own automatic rifle.

China displays new stealth fighter in race to match US: WSJ reports the public debut of weapons at Chinese airshow comes as concerns grow in Washington over Beijing’s expanding military power.

China’s CAS Space launched a remote sensing sat for Oman—its first international customer.

CEO of Saudi Arabia’s futuristic city project leaves abruptly: WSJ reports longtime CEO Nadhmi al-Nasr left Neom, Saudi Arabia’s marquee development, which has been plagued by delays, cost overruns and staff turnover.

Reuters:  Musk's Starlink working on Indian security clearance for satellite broadband 

Exxon says Trump should keep US in Paris climate pact: WSJ reports Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods says the president-elect’s plan to pull US out of the agreement is a bad idea.

China urges ‘constructive dialogue’ on climate change under Donald Trump: FT reports envoy tells COP29 summit in Baku that it is ‘firmly’ committed to controlling methane and other super-pollutants.

Mega-polluter China believes it is a climate saviour: Economist reports China accounts for almost 40% of global investment in clean energy.

Canada’s government intervenes to end port shutdowns: WSJ reports the Canadian labor minister says the lockouts on both coasts create ‘uncertainty and instability’ and has ordered the parties to binding arbitration.

US dependence on Canada's oil should deter Trump tariffs, industry says: Reuters reports Canada's energy industry does not expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's broad plans for protectionist trade measures will include tariffs on Canadian oil imports, because many US refineries rely on barrels from north of the border.

As Trump prepares for mass deportations, Mexico is not ready: Mexicans make up half of immigrants living illegally in the US The country could be the most vulnerable to a new Trump policy to deport the undocumented. WP

Mexico signals it could hit back at US with tariffs of its own: NYT reports could a tariff war erupt between the United States and Mexico? A top Mexican official said his country might retaliate if the Trump administration placed steep tariffs on Mexico.

+ Tesla’s planned $10 billion gigafactory in Mexico will hit a major roadblock if Trump pursues the massive tax he’s discussed putting on vehicles imported from Mexico.

Biden admin to support controversial UN cybercrime convention: Politico reports the decision follows months of internal deliberations over whether to support the treaty, which digital rights groups have raised serious concerns over due to its potential misuse by countries like Russia and China.

Bloomberg: Biden administration to support controversial UN cyber treaty

+ Critics fear it could be misused by authoritarian countries

+ Agreement would help pursuit of cybercriminals, official says

The end of American exceptionalism: Trump’s reelection will redefine US power. Daniel W. Drezner

Companies have a playbook for tariffs under Trump. It includes price increases. WSJ reports the former president has proposed a tariff of 60% on goods from China, and an across-the-board tariff on imported goods.

How to avoid Oval Office humiliation: A dozen officials offer tips on the dangerous art of Trump-flattery. Economist

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Who will fill the Democratic vacuum? When Trump is sworn in, he will face an opposition without clear leadership for the first time in 20 years. Gabriel Debenedetti

What Democrats don’t understand about Joe Rogan: The future of American political engagement is barely political at all. Politico

AP: Elon Musk’s PAC spent an estimated $200 million to help elect Trump, AP source says

CNBC: Elon Musk is $70 billion richer since Trump victory due to Tesla stock surge

Musk’s influence on Trump could lead to tougher AI standards, says scientist: Tycoon might help president-elect realize race for artificial general intelligence is a ‘suicide race,’ says Max Tegmark. Guardian

Trump expected to try to halt TikTok ban, allies say: WP reports the president-elect promised to ‘save’ the social media app, which faces a deadline early next year to find a non-China-based owner.

Trump and his mandate for retribution: The president-elect has promised vengeance against perceived enemies. Edward Luce

The big takeaway from Trump’s whirlwind round of personnel announcements: The president-elect is sending a clear message to Washington as he begins to reveal who’s in — and who’s out — of his next administration. Politico

Who’s really running Donald Trump’s transition: A look at the power players populating Trump’s club since the election. Politico

Trump’s early staff picks show sway held by Don Jr., Tucker Carlson Bloomberg

+ Don Jr. sees himself as a gatekeeper to block non-loyalists

+ Carlson backs onetime defense official Colby for top job

Today: President-elect Donald Trump plans to make his first visit to Capitol Hill since winning the White House for a meeting with congressional GOP leaders who will be tasked with advancing the incoming administration's agenda in 2025, according to House Speaker Mike Johnson.

GOP, on brink of governing ‘trifecta,’ looks to overhaul Washington: WP reports after winning the presidency and the Senate, Republicans are on the cusp of regaining the House majority — and with it, sweeping power.

Republican euphoria punctured by tough math in the House: Speaker Mike Johnson willing to work with ‘whatever margin I have’ to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. WSJ

AFP: From 'Little Marco' to 'Mr Secretary': Rubio shows Trump China push

Trump is likely to name a loyalist as Pentagon chief after tumultuous first term AP

John Paulson drops out of running to become Trump Treasury Secretary: WSJ reports investor says his ‘complex financial obligations’ would prevent him from joining the administration.

Bessent and Lutnick lead Trump Treasury job race after Paulson exits: FT reports Wall Street investors Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick are the leading contenders to be Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary after hedge fund billionaire John Paulson dropped out of the race for the job.

Bloomberg: Key advisers to Trump back Bessent for Treasury Secretary

+ John Paulson takes himself out of running for cabinet job

+ Trump has not yet announced candidate for top economic post

What does America’s next treasury secretary believe? We take a look at the leading contenders for the job. Economist

DNI: President-elect Trump is considering former Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) as his national intelligence director, Axios reports.

CNN: Trump picks Kristi Noem to serve as his Homeland Security secretary

Trump’s mass deportation promise: He has a mandate on the border to deport criminals. But more than that, it could get ugly fast. WSJ - Editorial

John FW Rogers, Goldman Sachs’ secretive consigliere and a fixture in establishment Republican circles, will help Melania Trump staff up the East Wing, people familiar with the matter said.

HUD: Philanthropist Bill Pulte is eyeing the Housing and Urban Development secretary post in President-elect Donald Trump’s second cabinet, according to the New York Post.

AP: Trump names former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as nominee for ambassador to Israel

Donald Trump Jr. sits out new administration to join VC firm: FT reports the president-elect’s eldest son chooses to be a partner with Tucker Carlson investor 1789 Capital.

Trump draft executive order would create board to purge generals: WSJ reports the panel could upend the military review process and raise concerns about the politicization of the military.

Trump gears up for assault on wokeness with education overhaul: WSJ reports the president-elect lays out big changes for America’s classrooms, including expanding school choice and closing Department of Education.

From AI to hardware costs: Enterprise tech leaders prepare for Trump 2.0: The president-elect’s focus on tariffs and reducing regulation could affect hardware costs and AI deployments, and set off an M&A frenzy, CIOs say. WSJ

Justice Samuel Alito plans to remain on Supreme Court: WSJ reports some Republicans suggest the veteran jurist could step down to let Trump appoint a younger conservative.

AP: Democrat Ruben Gallego wins Arizona US Senate race against Republican Kari Lake

Trump ally, car dealer elected to Senate: We'll freeze mpg standards, end EV push: Senator-elect Bernie Moreno, a former car dealer and U-M grad, has President-elect Trump's ear. Here are their proposed changes to the car industry. DFP

Lara Trump is among those on the short-list to fill Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) seat after he’s confirmed as Secretary of State, PBS Newshour reports.

George Whitesides, the former CEO of Virgin Galactic, is heading to Congress after defeating Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA).

84,653: The price of bitcoin hit a record high of $84,653 on Monday afternoon on hopes that President-elect Donald Trump will offer cryptocurrency-friendly policies. A year ago, bitcoin sold for about $37,000.

Why crypto mania is reaching new heights: Are bitcoin bros right to be so thrilled by Donald Trump’s victory? Economist

Silicon Valley protested Trump in 2016. Now it wants to work with him. Donald Trump’s first White House win triggered public outcry from tech executives and employees but this week, industry leaders were friendlier. WP

LAT: Newsom heads to DC to lobby for California’s wish list before Trump takes over

Trust in media—The long, declining road: Americans continue to register record-low trust in the mass media, with 31% saying they have a great deal (8%) or a fair amount (23%) of confidence in the media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly,” one percentage point below the record low of 32% recorded last year and in 2016.

+ Gallup first asked this question in 1972 and has measured it in most years since 1997. 

+ In three readings in the 1970s, trust ranged from 68% to 72%, yet by the next readings in the late 1990s and early 2000s, smaller majorities of 51% to 55% trusted the news media.

Threads + Bluesky, rival social networks that look much like Elon Musk’s X, have seen an influx of new users since election night in the US as people seek alternatives to Musk’s more right-leaning platform following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

Chris Wallace is leaving CNN.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Meta will offer paid subscription plans, with no ads, to Facebook and Instagram users in Europe.

AI groups rush to redesign model testing and create new benchmarks: Rapidly advancing technology is surpassing current methods of evaluating and comparing large language models. FT

+ OpenAI’s next artificial intelligence model, Orion, reportedly isn’t showing the massive leap in improvement previous versions have enjoyed. 

AI-generated images threaten science — here’s how researchers hope to spot them: Generative-AI technologies can create convincing scientific data with ease — publishers and integrity specialists fear a torrent of faked science. Nature

Which workers are embracing AI? A subset said the technology could help them work faster—but many still won’t use it. CBR

Reuters: Baidu bolsters AI lineup with enhanced text-to-image tech, no-code app builder 

China’s Baidu joins Meta in race to make AI-integrated smart glasses: FT reports the launch comes as Chinese internet groups jostle for dominance in hardware.

Baidu boasts strong AI user growth alongside launch of first smart glasses: SCMP reports at Baidu World 2024, where it announced the new Xiaodu AI Glasses, CEO Robin Li said the Ernie model now sees 1.5 billion API calls per day.

Apple, aiming to catch up with rivals in the smart home market, is nearing the launch of a new product category: a wall-mounted display that can control appliances, handle videoconferencing, and use AI to navigate apps.

Reuters:  Shopify delivers upbeat holiday forecast as AI draws customers, shares surge

Salesforce plans to hire more than 1,000 workers to sell its new generative AI agent product.

OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman has returned to the artificial intelligence startup three months after taking a leave from his role as president, bringing a key figure back to the C-suite amid an exodus of top executives.

+ "We've started a war between technological productivity and human skill, and skill is losing." — Matt Beane, a Digital Fellow at the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, in his new book "The Skill Code: How to Save Human Ability in an Age of Intelligent Machines," looks at how technologies such as robots and AI can interfere with old ways of learning, with potentially devastating consequences.

Amazon steps up effort to build AI chips that can rival Nvidia: Big Tech group’s Annapurna Labs is spending big to build custom chips that lessen its reliance on market leader. FT

Bloomberg: Southern CEO says extending coal among options to meet AI demand

+ Utility head open to keeping coal plant online longer

+ Companies scrambling to secure power amid expected demand hike

Waymo robotaxi is now open to all in Los Angeles.

VinFast will get fresh cash injections from its founder and parent company worth $3.4 billion by 2026 to keep the lights on at the Vietnamese EV maker. 

Stellantis will halt car production again at its Mirafiori plant in Italy, which makes the electric Fiat 500 and two Maserati models.

Toyota aims to ramp up China production: Reuters reports Toyota aims to make at least 2.5 million vehicles a year in China by 2030, three people said, an overhaul that will see it bring its Chinese sales and production operations closer together and allow local executives a freer hand in development.

Reaction Engines, a British spaceplane developer, declared bankruptcy.

Gilmour Space, an Australian company, received the country’s first orbital launch license for its Eris rocket. 

WSJ: 23andMe lays off 40% of staff, shuts drug development business

Sword Health, a $3 billion healthcare startup which provides virtual care for problems like muscle and joint pain, laid off more than a dozen of its clinical workforce in October.

6.4%: The market for secondhand furniture is projected to grow 6.4% in 2024, with IKEA products accounting for 10% of the secondhand home furnishings market, according to company CEO Jesper Brodin.

REI names former Sephora exec as marketing boss to revitalize the outdoors stalwart: WSJ reports Abigail Jacobs joins the 86-year-old purpose-driven co-op at a time marked by losses and turnover in key roles.

How Swiggy beat Amazon to 13-minute grocery deliveries in India: It has an army of gig workers, a fleet of mini-warehouses, and big-name investors. But a knockout trading debut isn’t a guarantee. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Is homeswapping the answer to overtourism? Home exchanges allow tourists to visit without squeezing locals out of the property market. Henry Mance

Chef Jamie Oliver’s children’s book pulled from shelves after backlash: WP reports the book drew criticism from an Australian education group for how the story depicted and stereotyped Indigenous Australians. 

*** Sport ***

The Cleveland Cavaliers cannot be stopped: With their 119-113 victory over the Bulls on Monday, they are now just the seventh team in NBA history to start the season with at least 12 straight wins.

Scottish Premiership Football pies ranked: Here are the best - and the worst - half time snacks in Scotland The Scotsman

+ New research has come up with a ranking of Scottish football’s best and worst half time pies.

+ 1. Ross County Football Club (Victoria Park): Ross County FC is on top with an excellent 94 percent positive review rate. With 29 out of 31 positive takes on their savouries, the Highland club is celebrated for its consistently delicious offerings, especially their self-nicknamed Staggies Pie filled with venison. One reviewer on Google said, "nice small stadium with a friendly atmosphere - the best pies at any football ground I've been in!" | Michael Gillen


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal