Caracal Daily | December 4

Caracal Daily | December 4

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

UN warns of worsening refugee crises in 2025: AFP reports the United Nations warned Tuesday that already unprecedented levels of forced displacement are set to worsen in 2025 as conflicts and disasters push ever more people to flee their homes.

Bloomberg: South Korea’s Yoon to lift martial law decree that shook markets

WSJ: South Korea president to lift martial law after parliament rejects move

+ President Yoon Suk Yeol pulled the order hours after South Korea’s National Assembly voted to halt it. Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Seoul, demanding that the president resign.

Martial law in South Korea—and then not. What comes next? A rash, unexpected move by Yoon Suk Yeol, the president, tests South Korean democracy. Economist

Martial law in South Korea tests Biden and a key US alliance: NYT reports the Biden administration has hailed South Korea as a model democracy and bolstered military ties as it relies on the country as a bulwark against North Korea, China, and Russia.

Politico: Ukraine peace plans galore: Lots of ideas to end the fighting but the sides remain far apart

+ More than 3 years of fighting and the arrival of Donald Trump is increasing pressure for a peace deal.

Zelensky signals he’s open to negotiating a peace deal: WSJ reports the Ukrainian president indicates he would accept a cease-fire with Russia if his country obtains NATO membership.

Zelensky pleads for Ukraine NATO membership, Europeans look for another solution: Le Monde repots Antonio Costa, the new president of the European Council, and Kaja Kallas, the new head of European diplomacy, visited Kyiv on Sunday, as soon as they took office. NATO foreign ministers are due to meet in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ukraine pushes for NATO membership, but it's complicated: Ukraine wants to join NATO immediately — at least the parts of the country that are not occupied by Russia. Kyiv says this will pave the way to peace. Can it be done? DW

NATO chief urges more weapons for Ukraine ahead of any peace talks: NYT reports Mark Rutte said it was up to Ukraine to decide when it was ready to begin negotiations with Russia — and that the West should help strengthen Kyiv’s position beforehand.

AFP: Ukraine pushes NATO for membership ahead of Trump presidency

The tainted legacy of the Merkel-Obama years: A failure to respond to Russian, Chinese, and Syrian aggression helped to create the unstable world of today. Gideon Rachman

Stoli Group USA, the renowned vodka producer, has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the United States, citing an array of financial and operational pressures, including geopolitical disputes, a recent cyberattack, and shifting consumer habits that have created a perfect storm of challenges for the company’s US operations.

Keir Starmer could approve Elgin Marbles loan to Greece: The Times reports the statues may be returned in a ‘win-win’ agreement when parts of the British Museum close for refurbishment, but the PM refused to cede ownership to Athens.

Macron seeks new prime minister as Michel Barnier set to fall: The Times reports veteran conservative faces a confidence vote as early as Wednesday after forcing through his budget, but the president may struggle to find a replacement.

Macron is already looking for a new prime minister: Le Monde reports while some are calling for the French president to resign should the government collapse, his entourage is hoping that he can represent stability in the political crisis to come. But only if he quickly appoints a new prime minister.

Bloomberg: Macron says French government can survive no-confidence vote

Is France at risk of a government shutdown? The fall of the French government, which could happen on Wednesday, would bury the procedure for adopting the 2025 budget. But several scenarios are possible to avoid a French-style shutdown. Le Monde

Macron announces France-Saudi partnership to co-host conference on creating Palestinian state: Le Monde reports the French president said that the conference would take place in June 2025 and highlighted the need for diplomatic initiatives to achieve mutual recognition between Israel and Palestine.

Trump to attend Notre-Dame's reopening in a diplomatic coup for Macron: Le Monde reports the American president-elect chose France for his first trip abroad. He will be in Paris on Saturday, December 7.

Finnish authorities say new cable cuts accidental: Le Monde reports Nordic digital infrastructure provider GlobalConnect told AFP two land-based optic fiber cables connecting Finland and Sweden had been severed on Monday in Finland, causing a 'major outage,' with 6,000 households and around 100 companies affected.

Norway extends legal limit for abortion to 18 weeks: Le Monde reports currently, women in Norway can have an abortion after the 12th week but only with the approval of a medical committee.

Fortune: Ikea profits down nearly 50% as fears of Trump tariff threats spook the Swedish retailer

Germany can't quit chocolate, despite record-high prices: DW reports seasonal demand for chocolate in Germany has barely decreased in spite of skyrocketing prices. The cost of raw materials such as like cocoa beans has jumped 50%.

In Germany, economic decline is looming: Germany, the driving force behind Europe, is currently experiencing severe economic and political turbulence, enough to rekindle deep-seated identity anxieties. Le Monde

Volkswagen strikes across Germany draw nearly 100,000 workers: FC reports Volkswagen has threatened to close plants in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history to reduce costs and boost profit.

Namibia elects its first woman president: AFP reports Namibia's ruling SWAPO party was declared winner Tuesday of last week's disputed elections, ushering in the southern African country's first woman president after a disputed vote that the main opposition has already said it does not recognise.

Biden says 'US is all in on Africa' during Angola visit: DW reports Joe Biden arrived in Angola to promote the Lobito Corridor railway project, seeking to strengthen US ties in Africa. The trip is his last as US president before Donald Trump takes office in January 2025. 

Google worried Israeli contract could enable human rights violations: NYT reports the tech giant, which has defended the deal to employees who oppose supplying Israel’s military with technology, feared the project might damage its reputation.

Bangladesh summons India envoy after consulate attack: DW reports tensions are high between India and Bangladesh after the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government and her fleeing to India. Bangladeshis protested an attack on a consulate in India a day earlier, amid a Hindu leader's trial.

Millions of Indonesians fall into digital debt trap as spending power wanes: Many middle-income earners caught out by stratospheric interest rates. Nikkei

Apple to offer Indonesia $1bn in investment, minister says: Nikkei reports the move would be 10 times tech giant's previous bid to end iPhone 16 sales ban.

Chinese researchers analyzing seawater samples off Fukushima Daiichi plant: NHK reports China's foreign ministry says Chinese researchers are analyzing samples of seawater collected near Japan's damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

+ Japan and China have agreed that Beijing will gradually resume imports of Japanese seafood based on additional monitoring of the plant's treated and diluted water under the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

China bans rare mineral exports to the US: The move escalates supply chain warfare and comes a day after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China. NYT

China blocks exports of chip materials gallium, germanium to US: Beijing says move is in response to Washington 'weaponizing' trade curbs. Nikkei

Bloomberg: Chinese hackers are lingering inside telecom firms, US says

+ US telecommunications companies are still working to kick out state-sponsored Chinese hackers who breached their networks as part of a spying campaign that dates back months, US officials said Tuesday.

8.4m: The number of Colombians that live in areas in which armed groups operate.

How Cuba fooled the US to get millions of dollars from Miami for its armed forces Miami Herald

Canada’s Trudeau says he addressed trade irritants with Trump: WSJ reports issues related to steel, aluminum, energy, and softwood were discussed.

Ontario’s ad campaign seeks to counter Trump tariffs threat: Canadian province is US’s third-biggest trade partner and its automotive industry is intertwined with that of its southern neighbour. FT

Trump vows to block Nippon Steel deal for US Steel: President-elect promises to revive American steelmaker via tax incentives and tariffs. Nikkei

How an American steel takeover became a political firestorm: A Japanese company’s plan to buy US Steel is challenging the country’s long-standing policy towards foreign investment. FT

Why America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals: The country’s outperformance is rooted in long-term productivity growth that is the envy of the developed world. Could Trump’s policies endanger its lead? FT

How painful will Trump’s tariffs be for American businesses? Their options range from hoarding goods and raising prices to rewiring supply chains. Economist

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Trump’s win shows us who we really are Aaron Hughey

+ "... congratulations to Trump for exposing the cold, hard truth about who we are. There is no American Exceptionalism; we are not immune from evil, anti-democratic authoritarian leaders with fascist tendencies. So let’s stop pretending we’re something we’re not."

Why Republicans might oppose Trump’s push to undo Biden’s triumphs: President Biden wants to make it more difficult for President-elect Donald J. Trump to repeal his signature legislation, which sent money flowing to Republican districts nationwide. NYT

‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini believes a second Trump term could push inflation as high as 5% Fortune

Donald Trump is reportedly set to pick the crypto enthusiast Paul Atkins to lead the SEC: FC reports since 2017, Atkins has cochaired the Token Alliance, an industry-led initiative that represents crypto’s interests.

The man with a plan to upend government, and what it entails: OMB nominee has pledged to dismantle 'woke and weaponized government.' Roll Call

Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg seeks ‘active role’ in Donald Trump’s tech policies: Policy chief Nick Clegg says social media company ‘overdid it’ on content moderation, as it seeks to placate president-elect. FT

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

How close is AI to human-level intelligence? Large language models such as OpenAI’s o1 have electrified the debate over achieving artificial general intelligence, or AGI. But they are unlikely to reach this milestone on their own. Nature

An agenda to maximise AI’s benefits and minimise harms, by David Patterson: How technologists, researchers and policymakers can reassure people AI will serve the public good. Economist

AI, huge hacks leave consumers facing a perfect storm of privacy perils: Nearly unlimited highly personal info is available for anyone willing to pay. AI provides many ways to turn that into illicit profit or undermine national security. WP

A current Apple employee is suing the company, alleging it spies on employees’ private lives through their personal devices Fortune

‘Data brokers’ are selling your private information. This watchdog wants to fix that: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is proposing strict regulations to protect Americans’ private information. FC

Wall Street’s AI-powered rally risks ‘correction’, Vanguard warns: FT reports asset manager’s chief economist Joe Davis says investors are overplaying the near-term potential of the technology.

AWS is betting on generative AI as it goes head-to-head with Microsoft: FT reports CEO Matt Garman says technology can be deployed in business applications and fuel new demand for cloud services.

Amazon launches AI models to challenge rivals: AFP reports Amazon on Tuesday unveiled a suite of artificial intelligence models in its boldest move yet to compete with tech giant rivals in the fast-growing generative AI sector.

Amazon announces a set of Nova AI models: FC reports the company’s Nova models can help power generative AI applications.

Amazon announces supercomputer, new server powered by homegrown AI chips: WSJ reports the company’s megacluster of chips for artificial-intelligence startup Anthropic will be among the world’s largest, it said, and its new giant server will lower the cost of AI as it seeks to build an alternative to Nvidia.

The furious contest to unseat Nvidia as king of AI chips: Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices, and several start-ups are beginning to offer credible alternatives to Nvidia’s chips, especially for a phase of AI development known as “inferencing.” NYT

We’re all suffering from qualitynesia now: Borne along on the tide of technology, it is far too easy to forget that some things really were better quality in the past. Sarah O’Connor

The world needs more electricity—but don’t blame AI, Microsoft president Brad Smith says Fortune

Sony and Honda prepare for tough US EV debut under Trump: Joint venture's Afeela to compete on software, but tariff and subsidy concerns loom. Nikkei

Why Detroit could be the biggest loser in Trump’s plan to gut auto emissions: GM, which has made substantial investments in electric vehicles, would suffer under Trump’s proposal to kill the EV subsidy. FC

Coca-Cola draws fire after watering down its environmental targets: FT reports US drinks maker will recycle less of its plastic and cut emissions more slowly than previously pledged.

What's really behind Walmart's DEI reversal: Robby Starbuck is taking credit for Walmart's decision to roll back its DEI efforts. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Beth Kowitt explains why it's not all about him. Bloomberg

Netflix star Ryan Serhant raises $45 million to disrupt the real estate brokerage business Fortune

*** Culture ***

Inside JD Vance’s Hollywood: What the incoming vice president’s favorite movies and TV shows reveal about his politics. Politico

Mexican cuisine spices things up in France: From tacos to citrus guacamole and peppers stuffed with cream cheese, a young generation of chefs is working hard to showcase Mexican cuisine, which is far more sophisticated than it seems. Le Monde

Scottish artist Jasleen Kaur wins 2024 Turner Prize: AFP reports Scottish artist Jasleen Kaur won the prestigious Turner Prize on Tuesday, as the UK contemporary art award celebrated its 40th anniversary.

*** Sport ***

The billionaire, his mystery wife and college football’s wildest recruiting saga: Why did Larry Ellison—a man with no known ties to Michigan—help the Wolverines land the nation’s No. 1 quarterback? The answer lies with a 33-year-old woman named Keren Zhu. WSJ

WP: NFL suspends Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair for three games for hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

PGA Tour-LIV talks 'definitely moving' - Woods: AFP reports Tiger Woods expressed disappointment on Tuesday at the delay in finalizing a PGA Tour-LIV Golf merger but said "things are moving" in the bid to bridge the global divide in men's golf.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal