Caracal Daily | December 20

Caracal Daily | December 20

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Friday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Stop pushing Zelenskyy into peace talks, warns EU’s top diplomat: FT reports Kaja Kallas says western capitals need to make good on promises of security guarantees to Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky, said that security guarantees from Europe “won’t be sufficient” to protect his country from Russia, and emphasised the importance of also having American support and NATO membership.

AP: Putin boasts of gains in Ukraine at annual news conference meant to reinforce his authority

BBC: I should have invaded Ukraine earlier, Putin tells Russians in TV marathon

Russia is ready for a missile ‘duel’ with West, says Putin: The Times reports the president made the challenge during his annual end-of-year press conference, which was again combined with a public question-and-answer session.

Its Syrian bases in doubt, Russia sends cargo flights to Libya: NYT reports a Libyan officer said the stepped-up flights from Russia and Syria delivered military gear.

Ars Tech: Russian space chief says country will fly on space station until 2030

+ "Space is an area of activity where there is never a 100 percent guaranteed result."

California campaign manager arrested and charged as Chinese agent: WP reports a federal criminal complaint alleges that Yaoning “Mike” Sun sent reports to Beijing while managing the campaign of a city council candidate who won election in 2022.

Swedish police board Chinese ship to observe cables probe: DW reports Chinese authorities invited Swedish officers to observe an investigation into the Chinese vessel's possible role in the severing of two Baltic Sea cables. Sweden insists it is leveling 'no accusations' at Beijing.

Revealed: Prince Andrew board member advised Chinese Communist Party: The Times reports board members of Pitch@Palace China included a former adviser to the Communist Party and the founder of a tech firm accused of helping to persecute the Uighurs.

Reeves to take UK bankers to China as she seeks closer business ties: FT reports the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused by the Tories of ignoring security concerns about Beijing.

Labour’s review of UK-China relations on hold until after chancellor visits Beijing: Despite calls for more scrutiny in light of Prince Andrew spy allegations, Starmer’s instinct is not to do anything to hamper growth. Guardian

Keir Starmer takes his chance to be the Usain Bolt of boredom: Christmas has come early for the prime minister: an opportunity to list his achievements to the titans of the Commons liaison committee. He didn’t waste a second. The Times

Peter Mandelson picked by Starmer as ambassador to US: The Times reports key appointment will send Labour veteran to Washington at start of Donald Trump presidency.

Emmanuel Macron's permanent duality: 'The Two Emmanuel Macrons' (Part 2/4). 'Liberal,' 'reformist,' 'patriot,' 'progressive,' 'slightly authoritarian side,' with a 'right-wing ethos'... The French president has always kept his ideological beliefs blurry. Le Monde

Macron vows to rebuild Mayotte after cyclone devastation: DW reports French President Emmanuel Macron was met with angry residents of Mayotte, who urged him to help with critical issues plaguing the island in Chido's aftermath.

Europe has a leadership vacuum. How will it handle Trump? With Germany and France both in political turmoil, the new administration of Donald J. Trump will begin at a time of instability for the continent. NYT

Israel vs. Turkey: The intensifying Middle East power struggle: The collapse of the Syrian regime destroyed Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,’ and brought Turkish-backed Islamists to Israel’s doorstep instead. WSJ

Israel said it had struck Houthi “military targets” in Yemen, including ports and energy infrastructure. 

Israel’s expanded perch on Syrian border puts Damascus in its sights: WSJ reports Israeli soldiers have also entered rural areas beyond a buffer zone, seeking to disarm Syrian residents there.

+ @60Minutes: Sunday on 60 Minutes: For the first time, recently retired Mossad agents who led the pager and walkie talkie plot against Hezbollah tell Lesley Stahl how they executed the operation, sharing never-before-known details of the 10-year undercover op.

More than twice as many US troops are in Syria than previously disclosed: NYT reports a Pentagon press officer said the increase was unrelated to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad to rebel forces in early December.

US diplomats prepare to meet Syrian rebel leader in Damascus: FT reports Al-Jolani, who remains under western sanctions, will host state department’s top Middle East official.

Everyone wants to meet Syria’s new rulers: But a flurry of diplomatic meetings in Damascus points to the obstacles ahead. Economist

Latin Americans are worryingly relaxed about authoritarianism: The Latinobarómetro poll shows a region that is happier with its democracies, but at ease with illiberalism. Economist

Bloomberg: Brazil congress further dilutes Lula’s spending cut package

+ Lower house votes to weaken another piece of austerity plan

+ Fiscal impact of changes unclear as bills move to Senate

Milei says Trump backs Argentina’s free-market makeover: Argentine leader is coming off strong first year in office after implementing painful spending cuts to reduce world’s highest inflation rate. WSJ

Argentina takes steps to speed up Milei’s dollarization strategy: Bloomberg reports the government plans to take two key steps — launch the first dual-currency debit card, so that Argentines can make dollar payments despite ongoing exchange rate controls, and allow banks to provide dollar loans in sectors that are currently excluded from such financing.

Bloomberg: ‘The only people that win is China’: Ontario premier makes trade plea to Trump

+ Doug Ford says Canada can help supply critical minerals to US

+ Newfoundland’s Furey calls for tactful and strategic approach

Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs: FT repores the US president-elect warns bloc’s member states face tariffs unless they make big purchases.

WP: White House says Biden will visit Pope Francis, Meloni in final international trip of his presidency

+ White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that Biden will also meet with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Sergio Mattarella during the Jan. 9-12 trip.

The Economist’s country of the year for 2024: The winner toppled a tyrant and seems headed for something better. Economist

***  US Politics + Elections ***

How the White House functioned with a diminished Biden in charge: Aides kept meetings short and controlled access, top advisers acted as go-betweens, and public interactions became more scripted. The administration denied Biden has declined. WSJ

‘It’s kind of sad’: How Biden’s aides sought to obscure his decline: The Times reports in 2021, a national security briefing was scrapped because Joe Biden was having ‘a bad day’. The White House did not admit it — but those days started to stack up.

WP: Government shutdown looms as House rejects Trump-backed GOP funding bill

WSJ: House rejects GOP plan backed by Trump as government barrels toward shutdown

NYT: House votes down Trump-endorsed bill to keep government open past Friday

FT: US government shutdown looms after House rejects Trump-backed funding bill

Elon Musk fueled backlash to spending plan with false and misleading claims: Politico reports the billionaire stirred Republicans into a frenzy with 100-plus posts on X.

CNN: Trump and Musk unleash a new kind of chaos on Washington

+ Trump got caught flat-footed as Musk’s opposition spread like wildfire, igniting the Right — and thus had to chime in with his own concerns.

The day Trump and Musk took control of American politics: When they opposed a bill to keep the government funded, Republicans in Congress U-turned to appease them. Now the US is at risk of shutdown. The Times

The Hill: Bernie Sanders blasts ‘President Elon Musk’ for derailing spending deal

+ “Is Elon Musk the new dictator of the Republican Party?” -- Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), quoted by the New York Times.

Shutdown threatens ‘chaos’ for Trump’s transition and inauguration: Politico reports transition “landing teams” were already delayed and may now lose access to the staffers briefing them.

Johnson’s spending nightmare points to grueling GOP problems next year: Politico reports Donald Trump is opening the door to a government shutdown. At least one conservative is now saying they won’t back Johnson for speaker. It doesn’t stop there.

Biden drafting plan for construction of AI data centers on federal lands: WP reports worried the United States could fall behind in artificial intelligence, the White House wants to encourage data centers and dedicated power plants.

+ Five Democratic senators, including Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), wrote to President Joe Biden asking him to reconsider potential executive action that would fast-track data center construction by loosening environmental rules, according to a letter seen first by Politico.

Rubio could be to Trump what Talleyrand was to Napoleon: America’s prospective secretary of state is not in the league of a Henry Kissinger, say. He has another option, though. Andreas Kluth

In rare move, Republican senators call for Hegseth’s FBI report: Politico reports the Senate Armed Services Committee usually limits who can view these types of background checks. Lawmakers want to see this one.

Bloomberg: Elon Musk taps loyalists to boost staffing for DOGE effort

NYT: Trump picks Herschel Walker to be ambassador to the Bahamas

FT person of the year: Donald Trump: After the most dramatic comeback in modern US history, the president-elect promises a new era of sweeping deregulation and a profound shift to the cultural right.

‘The black swan election’: Trump’s campaign chiefs tell their inside story: LaCivita and Fabrizio explain what their inside numbers showed, where Harris messed up and why Trump wanted Vance. Politico

Experts praise long-awaited AI report from Congress: 'A thoughtful and forward-thinking framework' Fox News

+ Some experts posited that the report could spur more action on AI from state lawmakers

+ The Center for AI Policy, a nonpartisan research organization based in the nation's capital, issued a press release that commended lawmakers for their work on the report. But the group echoed Behzadan's remarks about the need for more detail.

"The body of the report does not contain enough detail about how or when these frameworks will be created," the group said after the report's release. It also expressed concern over the report's lack of emphasis on "catastrophic risks" posed by AI.

"Congress has deliberated on AI for two years now, and it is time to start moving forward with decisive action," the press release stated. 

+ Center for AI Policy in the News

America needs an infrastructure revolution: In an age of severe fiscal constraints, the old government-led investment model is no longer viable. Sadek Wahba

Neil Cavuto is leaving Fox News.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Bloomberg: FedEx jumps on plan to spin off $30 billion freight unit

+ Cargo unit to be spun off as public company within 18 months

+ Split announced as parcel company trims 2025 profit outlook

DoorDash has launched drone delivery in Austin.

New research shows AI strategically lying: For years, computer scientists have worried that advanced artificial intelligence might be difficult to control. A smart enough AI might pretend to comply with the constraints placed upon it by its human creators, only to reveal its dangerous capabilities at a later point. Time

Big bets on AI point to venture capital industry’s shift: The strategy of focusing money on larger deals comes at time of extreme indigestion for start-up investors. Richard Waters

AI giants seek new tactics now that ‘low-hanging fruit’ is gone: Progress on the most advanced new AI systems has been slower than expected. Bloomberg

Is the tech industry already on the cusp of an AI slowdown? Companies like OpenAI and Google are running out of the data used to train artificial intelligence systems. Can new methods continue years of rapid progress? NYT

AI in 2030: At the DealBook Summit, ten experts in artificial intelligence discussed the greatest opportunities and risks posed by the technology. DealBook

The edgelord AI that turned a shock meme into millions in crypto: Truth Terminal started as a techno-modernist art project meant to invite discussion about the applications and potential dangers of autonomous AI agents. Then it took on a life of its own. Wired

Beyond fair use: Better paths forward for artists in the AI era: If you asked many artist advocates what we should do to protect musicians from the potential harms of AI music generation, you’re likely to run into a common theme in the responses: artists must consent to and be compensated for the use of their works in training AI models. Tristan Williams

+ Center for AI Policy in the News

It’s the end of the internet as we know it—and I feel fine: Maybe this was the last year of the usable web. If so, blame corporate greed. Scott Nover

Michael Dell spent 40 years preparing for an AI boom no one expected: The man who founded Dell in a Texas dorm room has transformed his company. It’s not just about PCs anymore. Christopher Mims

Why the TikTok era spells trouble for the establishment: Populism is the winner in the shift from traditional to social media and from text to video and audio. John Burn-Murdoch

Vast Space LLC, the aerospace startup founded by former crypto tycoon Jed McCaleb, has hired SpaceX to launch two private astronaut missions to the International Space Station, part of its plans to commercialize Earth’s orbit.

Bloomberg: Amazon delays RTO mandate for thousands of workers due to space

+ Company is struggling to find space in at least seven cities

+ Start dates are being pushed back as much as four months

New Nike Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill pledged to reignite growth by refocusing on sports and revamping the company’s products. But first, he has to undo all the the things his predecessor did wrong.

*** Culture ***

James May: ‘I don’t think you realize quite what a catch I am’: The TV presenter, 61, talks about motoring, middle age, and the perils of running a pub. The Times

The 10 best documentaries of 2024: From rock-star stalking to early reality-TV superstars, assassination conspiracies to colonial reclamations — these were are favorites in a year of bold, groundbreaking docs. Rolling Stone

Can Keith McNally re-create the magic of Minetta Tavern in DC? The New York restaurateur is expanding his empire to Union Market District. WP

*** Sport ***

Liam Lawson will race for Red Bull in 2025.

Ohio State is back in the playoff. Ohio State fans are completely furious. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has his team in the national title hunt again. By most measures, he’s one of the most successful coaches in school history. But by one particular measure, he’s most definitely not. WSJ

TA: Netflix to feature 10 SEC football programs in ‘Drive to Survive’-style docuseries on 2024 season

AP: Lindsey Vonn hits back at critics who think she’s crazy to return to ski racing at age 40

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal