Caracal Daily | August 20
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Politico: Blinken: ‘Probably the best, maybe the last’ chance to save Gaza hostages
+ “It is time for it to get done,” says top U.S. diplomat as he arrives in Israel.
WP: Hamas claims Tel Aviv attack as Blinken promotes cease-fire in Israel
AP: Civilians flee Pokrovsk as Russia’s army bears down on the key eastern Ukraine city
Reuters: Russian forces capture town of Zalizne in Ukraine's east, defence ministry says
The mysterious middle-men helping Russia’s war machine: Sanctions are as watertight as a sieve. Economist
India's Modi to visit Kyiv: DW reports Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine after an invitation from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Ukraine has successfully warded off drone attacks launched by Russia.
Lithuania begins construction of German military base: DW reports the NATO-country site is situated near Lithuania's border with Russian ally Belarus. It will be the first permanent foreign military deployment of German troops since World War II.
The China hangover is here Michael Beckley
US, China agree to work more closely in times of financial stress: Nikkei reports the fifth Financial Working Group meeting concluded as trade tensions rise.
China + Vietnam have signed 14 agreements which include cooperation on cross-border railways and crocodile imports.
AP: Chinese and Philippine ships collide again in disputed waters, and the countries are trading blame
Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point: WP reports the incident, the first time in decades that Beijing and Manila have clashed over the Sabina Shoal, may derail efforts to lower tensions in the South China Sea.
AP: Philippines says China was `dramatically’ alarmed over US missile system deployed to its north
AP: US and South Korea begin military drills aimed at strengthening their defense against North Korea
South and North Korea brace for Harris or Trump as next US leader: Nikkei reports Yoon and Kim deepen their own alliances while keeping door open to dialogue.
South Koreans hit the brakes on EVs after battery fires: DW repprts sveral electric vehicle fires in South Korea have dented sales as buyers worry about potential battery hazards. Carmakers are responding by cutting prices and trying to allay consumers' safety concerns.
Thailand's latest Shinawatra PM walks the same economic, political tightrope: Paetongtarn takes office with growth the key issue as father Thaksin calls party shots. Nikkei
Power, oil, and a $450m painting - insiders on the rise of Saudi's Crown Prince BBC
World’s most expensive painting to form the centerpiece of ‘Saudi Louvre’: Mohammed bin Salman intends to build a gallery in Riyadh to display Salvator Mundi, attributed to Leonardo da Vinci, and the most costly artwork ever sold at auction. The Times
We can’t let EU’s anti-AI rules drag us down too: Hastily drafted in response to ChatGPT, these curbs will stunt tech in its infancy — and have a harmful effect here. Rohan Silva
Kim Dotcom vows to continue legal fight against extradition Bloomberg
+ “I love New Zealand. I’m not leaving,” Dotcom posted on X after the news was reported late last week. He told his followers not to worry because he had a plan, without providing any details.
AFP: Nicaragua outlaws 1,500 NGOs, including religious charities
The Pentagon is planning a drone ‘hellscape’ to defend Taiwan: The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones. Wired
The world can’t escape from a US economy that has lost its anchor: Financial markets are right to be jumpy ahead of November’s election. Chris Giles
*** US Politics + Elections ***
AP: US intelligence officials say Iran is to blame for hacks targeting Trump, Biden-Harris campaigns
Biden heads to Chicago for a hero’s goodbye: The president thought he’d be closing out the convention. Instead, Democrats are celebrating his departure. Politico
Many voters in this swing county are sour on the economy. Here’s what they’re saying. In financially struggling Saginaw County, Mich., the election promises uneasy choices for some. WSJ
How Democrats reversed the script on the GOP: Now it’s Harris’ party that’s showing a sense of unity, purpose, and relentless focus on winning. Politico
Kamala Harris has the momentum. Now comes the real test: The Democratic candidate has overtaken Donald Trump in the polls and managed to rattle him, but the coming weeks will bring bigger hurdles. FT
Harris’s candidacy boosts a Democrat’s slim chances on Long Island: Representative Nick LaLota is questioning John Avlon’s local bona fides as they battle over who is more authentically of Long Island. NYT
Democrats unveil convention platform with familiar themes: The party is calling for tax increases on corporations and the rich while also focusing on working families, infrastructure, climate change, and abortion rights. Politico
FT: Harris backs plan to raise US corporate tax rate to 28%
Trump tries to clarify that he and Vance ‘are extremely normal people’: Rolling Stone reports the former president can't seem to get over Democrats calling him and his running mate "weird."
LAT: Trump campaign airs grievances as Democratic convention begins
WP: Trump portrays Harris as foreign, echoing past attacks on Democrats of color
AP: Trump will campaign across the country this week as he struggles to adjust to Harris
Donald Trump has posted a series of AI-generated images on his Truth Social account, falsely claiming that Taylor Swift has endorsed him for president, Variety reports.
Trump’s AI fakes of Harris and Swift aren’t meant to fool you: These aren’t credible deepfakes. They’re provocative memes. Will Oremus
CNBC: Trump says he would offer Tesla CEO Elon Musk a Cabinet slot, but might end EV tax credit
Mayoral candidate vows to let VIC, an AI bot, run Wyoming’s capital city WP
Pressure to ban mobile phones in America’s schools intensifies: Restrictions on the use of devices have been shown to improve students’ performance. Patti Waldmeir
How to deal with mobile phones at school: New York City and Los Angeles plan to ban phones in their districts, but finding ways to implement and enforce the policies may prove tricky. Bloomberg
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year 2024 — the longlist: Tales of Trump’s finances, AI advances, and Amazon’s dominance join the chosen titles. FT
Canadian group targets 7-Eleven owner in Japan’s biggest foreign takeover approach: FT reports Seven & i shares jump 22% after ‘friendly’ proposal from convenience store rival Couche-Tard.
Bloomberg: 7-Eleven billionaire heirs would see big payday from takeover
+ Descendants of Masatoshi Ito own $3.1 billion stake in firm
+ Bid may face opposition given importance of 7-Eleven in Japan
Estée Lauder issues gloomy outlook as chief Fabrizio Freda announces retirement: FT reports the departure of CEO after 15-year tenure comes as owner of Clinique and MAC brands continues turnaround.
Bloomberg: Uber-backed e-scooter startup Lime enters Japan after Korea exit
+ Lime testing Japan’s growing market dominated by Tokyo’s Luup
+ San Francisco startup starting with tiny fleet of 200 scooters
Reuters: Hard-pressed Kenyan drivers defy Uber's algorithm, set their own fares
How Walmart became an advertising powerhouse: A high-margin and fast-growing ad business is changing the chain’s relationship with brands. FT
Two astronauts are stuck in space - how will they pass time (and survive) until 2025? The two astronauts were only meant to be in space for eight days, but now they might not return until 2025. Do they have enough supplies for such a stint, how are they coping mentally, and what is day-to-day life like up there? Sky News
Tinned fish is swimming against the tide: Once a staple of wartime diets, it is now a social-media phenomenon. Economist
AMD signs $4.9bn deal to challenge Nvidia’s AI infrastructure lead: FT reports the California group hopes acquisition of ZT Systems will accelerate adoption of its data centre chips.
AMD deal shows AI chip business isn’t just about chips: WSJ reports the acquisition of ZT Systems brings needed hardware expertise, while divestiture plans should spare AMD a margin hit.
Artificial intelligence is losing hype: For some, that is proof the tech will in time succeed. Are they right? Economist
Start-up failures rise 60% as founders face hangover from boom years: Private company shutdowns jump compared with last year despite AI funding frenzy, threatening millions of jobs at VC-backed firms. FT
*** Culture ***
Who's afraid of Stephanie Jones? How Tom Brady's publicist became one of the most polarizing names in celebrity PR. BI
Bloomberg: Indiana Jones's iconic felt fedora fetches $630,000 at auction
RIP: Phil Donahue
*** Sport ***
What NFL players really think about sports gambling: Good for the league. Not so good for you. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 19
Caracal Daily | August 19
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Kremlin response to Kursk incursion shows how Putin freezes in a crisis: WP reports when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority is tested, his response often lacks quick, decisive action that lives up to his bellicose rhetoric.
‘People are horrified’: Moscow turns to reluctant conscripts to defend Kursk FT
Russia’s double-punch back against Ukraine’s shock raid: It is bombing Ukrainians in Kursk and advancing in Pokrovsk. Economist
Ukraine blows up bridges to consolidate its positions in Russia: FT reports Moscow fails to push back Kyiv’s forces from Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces claim to hold many Russian soldiers captured in the Kursk region: Le Monde reports Moscow has reportedly contacted Kyiv to initiate talks about a prisoner exchange. Eleven days after the start of its offensive on Russian territory, Ukraine continues to apply pressure on the Kremlin.
The young PoWs captured in Russia: ‘Don’t shoot, we’re conscripts’: The Times reports in a Ukrainian prison, captives recount the moment of Zelensky’s incursion. Fearing torture, one 22-year-old tried to blow himself up — but woke to find the enemy treating his wounds.
Ukraine is invading with British tanks. What does it mean for us? The Kremlin spits ‘fire and brimstone’ — but fears of nuclear escalation are overblown, defense sources say. Tim Shipman
Ukraine updates — Belarus sends extra troops to border: DW reports Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko says Minsk has deployed nearly a third of its armed forces along the Ukraine border. Kyiv's forces say they are shoring up their positions in Russia's Kursk region.
Middle East updates: Blinken in Israel for Gaza deal talks: DW reports US top diplomat Antony Blinken is once again in the Middle East as pressure to close a deal to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza and end fighting in the territory grows.
Bloomberg: Israel, Hamas accuse each other of imperiling a cease-fire deal
+ Netanyahu vows not to ‘give and give’ in Gaza war talks
+ Blinken arrives in Israel for meetings before heading to Egypt
Macron to convene party leaders next week to discuss new government: Le Monde reports weeks after legislative elections which produced no clear majority in Parliament, France still does not have a new prime minister.
People leaving Sweden will exceed immigrants in 2024: DW reports according to demographic projections, people leaving Sweden are set to outnumber immigrants this year. The government says this is thanks to its restrictive migration policies.
Today: Japan-India 2+2: Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru hold talks with their Indian counterparts S. Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh.
Thailand elects 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra as new PM.
Singapore PM Wong calls for 'major reset' with R&D push, regulatory review: US stance toward China 'hardening' no matter who wins presidential election. Nikkei
Singapore PM warns of regional fallout from US-China tensions: Lawrence Wong says ‘intensifying rivalry’ between Beijing and Washington is his nation’s biggest concern. FT
Why Indonesia moved its capital to a jungle hundreds of miles away WP
Wednesday: Taiwan security forum: Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Ketagalan security forum -- the first edition since President Lai Ching-te took office in May.
Today: New Vietnam leader visits China: Vietnam's freshly anointed Communist Party chief To Lam is due in China at the invitation of his counterpart Xi Jinping.
Vietnam's President To Lam arrives in China for state visit: DW reports President To Lam's visit to China will include a meeting with President Xi Jinping and will confirm the close trade ties between the neighbors despite disputes over the South China Sea.
China’s rulers are surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz: One has never been to China, the other has visited 30 times. Economist
TikTok told a federal appeals court on Thursday that the US Department of Justice has misstated the social media app's ties to China, urging the court to overturn a law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell TikTok's US assets or face a ban.
China is becoming a money pit for foreign automakers: WSJ reports Volkswagen, General Motors, and other big brands are losing their grip on a once-lucrative market as Chinese consumers embrace homegrown electric vehicles.
South Korea’s plan for AI textbooks hit by backlash from parents: Government says new digital education tools are ‘pivotal’ to overhaul of school system. FT
Harry and Meghan’s Colombia visit brings ‘prestige’ to former cartel city: The Times reports the Duke and Duchess of Sussex visit city once notorious for the ‘Gentlemen of Cali’ cocaine barons.
Prince Harry urges caution on AI at start of trip to Colombia: Reuters reports Britain's Prince Harry urged caution over artificial intelligence and talked of social media as divisive during a panel in Colombia's capital Bogota alongside his wife Meghan and the Andean country's Vice President Francia Marquez.
Argentina’s Milei finds it hard to decouple from China: WSJ reports the South American country’s president is keeping close economic ties with Beijing to help restore growth, while also cozying up to the US.
Argentina's lithium mining boom threatens Indigenous towns DW
The CIA sent him deep undercover to spy on Islamic radicals. It cost him everything: A deep-cover CIA officer spent years underground trying to infiltrate Al Qaeda. But an investigation into his life, work, and death reveals mystery, moral quagmires, and the secret toll of the War on Terror. Rolling Stone
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Joe Biden’s interrupted presidency: He sought the office nearly all his life. When he finally got there, it brought out his best — and eventually his worst. NYT
Harris was hamstrung by caution. Now she’s the Democrats’ driving force. WSJ reports a deferential approach to Biden, and early missteps gave way to sharper skills and business ties. A turning point came with the abortion fight.
Optimistic once again, the Democratic Party prepares to celebrate the advent of Kamala Harris: Le Monde reports the Democratic National Convention, which opens in Chicago on August 19, will offer the vice president an opportunity to consolidate the momentum she has generated in record time since Joe Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential race.
Harris leads Trump overall but not on handling of the economy: Poll: ABC News reports among all adults, the Harris ticket leads the Trump ticket by 50%-45%.
Bloomberg: Harris urges supporters to ‘fight’ as Trump accelerates campaign
+ Vice president travels Pennsylvania by bus ahead of convention
+ Trump plans blitz of rallies and border trip to counter Harris
Trump campaign reset goes awry in Pennsylvania as he attacks Harris: Guardian reports the ex-president quickly broke away from prepared speech to accuse vice-president of being a communist and a fascist.
Pennsylvania is slipping from Donald Trump’s grasp: Kamala Harris gains ground with crucial Hispanic voters in swing state that could decide 2024 US election. Edward Luce
America’s No 1 pollster Nate Silver on his US election bets: If anyone can predict whether it will be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, it’s Nate Silver. Josh Glancy meets the poker player and ‘data dork’ with a remarkable winning streak. The Times
As DNC hits Chicago, Microsoft warns of deepfake artificial-intelligence attacks: CST reports President Joe Biden became a target of satirical, manipulated videos before he dropped his reelection bid. And a deepfake photo after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump was altered to make it appear Secret Service agents smiled as they encircled him — apparently an effort to make the shooting appear to be a hoax.
OpenAI said on Friday it had taken down accounts of an Iranian group for using its ChatGPT chatbot to generate content meant for influencing the US presidential election and other issues.
California trims AI safety bill amid fears of tech exodus: And as Anthropic boss reckons there's 'a good chance ... we'll be able to get models that are better than most humans at most things.' The Register
California bill to regulate AI advances over tech opposition with some tweaks: SB 1047 would regulate large-scale AI models, protect whistleblowers. SJMN
This controversial California AI bill was amended to quell Silicon Valley fears. Here’s what changed LAT
California AI bill is amended; Vote is expected by end of August: Silicon Valley companies still worry that state lawmakers are jumping the gun on regulating a still-unproven technology. NYT
Nancy Pelosi criticizes California AI bill as ‘ill-informed’ TC
Pelosi Statement in opposition to California Senate Bill 1047 Press Release
Senator Wiener responds to Speaker Emerita Pelosi's opposition to SB 1047 Press Release
Bloomberg: Traders need Fed go sign in Jackson Hole to keep stocks rallying
+ Powell tone, more than words, is key to maintaining sentiment
+ Options market is pricing over 1% swing in S&P 500 on Friday
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Re “Many people fear AI. They shouldn’t,” by David Brooks: Alligators are heartless and have little interest in arts or music; that doesn’t stop them from biting your arm off if you stick it in a swamp. Instead of assuring the public that AI will be good for humanity, Mr. Brooks should help us think through what kinds of policies will allow us to use AI safely. Jason Green-Lowe NYT-LTE
AI discovers new drugs that could save millions of lives — and Big Pharma’s time: The Times reports while many industries are having second thoughts about artificial intelligence transforming the way they operate, it is proving revolutionary in drug discovery.
AI could actually change the gaming industry: The technology is expected to slash the fat budgets that have been required to develop every new game. FT
AI is helping to launch new businesses (and not just AI businesses): Entrepreneurs say use of artificial intelligence for a variety of tasks is accelerating the path to hiring and, ideally, profitability. NYT
Biggest US companies warn of growing AI risk: Study finds more than half of Fortune 500 groups cited new technology as a potential hazard in their latest annual reports. FT
Noxious images spread after Elon Musk launches AI tool with few guardrails: WP reports by using his platform to favor Donald Trump and launch a loosely-controlled AI chatbot, Grok, Musk has dragged the company into uncharted territory ahead of a contentious election.
Why does AI art look like that? Every tech company wants its image generator to be the best. But they all produce oddly similar work. Caroline Mimbs Nyce
Reuters: South Korean AI chip makers Rebellions and Sapeon agree to merge
Samsung bets on CXL memory to become next AI darling: Nikkei reports the technology can boost server memory capacity 10-fold over current products.
US tech groups’ water consumption soars in ‘data centre alley’: FT reports usage has increased by almost two-thirds since 2019 in the world’s largest concentration of computing infrastructure.
Reuters: X says it is closing operations in Brazil due to judge's content orders
Inside Worldcoin’s orb factory, audacious and absurd defender of humanity: The startup, co-founded by Sam Altman, is determined to verify every human on Earth, one iris at a time. Bloomberg
Sam Altman’s Worldcoin is battling with governments over your eyes: WSJ reports the OpenAI chief’s Worldcoin project involves an attempt to scan the irises of every person on Earth and pay them with his own cryptocurrency. Authorities aren’t buying it.
Bitcoin rises 5.17% to $59,609.
The unraveling of a crypto dream: Brock Pierce arrived in Puerto Rico seven years ago, promising to use crypto magic to revitalize the local economy. Now he’s mired in legal disputes and fighting with his business partners. NYT
AP: No-car Games: Los Angeles Olympic venues will only be accessible by public transportation
New breed of EV promises 700 miles per charge (just add gas): It runs on batteries 95% of the time, but a gasoline engine can recharge them for longer hauls, easing range anxiety. Bloomberg
Singapore's wooden building of the future has a mold problem: Timber construction promises a greener future, but the technology must be adapted to various climates. Bloomberg
The hotelification of offices, with signature scents and saltwater spas: Hoping to lure workers back to their desks, companies are designing “work resorts,” luxe spaces meant to compete with the comforts and versatility of their living room. NYT
*** Culture ***
Burning Man has sold out since 2011. Why not this year? The desert arts festival returns this month after two consecutive years of challenging weather, including mud that stranded attendees, and a COVID-19 hiatus. NYT
Alain Delon, smoldering French film star, dies at 88: The César-winning actor was an international favorite in the 1960s and ’70s, often sought after by the era’s great auteurs. NYT
Alain Delon, enduring star of French cinema, has died: The embodiment of the actor par excellence and a personality as much as an artist, Alain Delon lived his art with an unparalled intensity. He died at the age of 88. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
Niewiadoma wins Women's Tour de France by just four seconds: Le Monde reports the Polish cyclist won her first women's Tour de France as she dug in during the race's grueling final Alpine ascent.
Munichs by David Peace —Manchester United’s 1958 tragedy and the aftermath: The Damned United author’s compelling fictionalisation of the plane crash that killed eight players succeeds as an elegy for society’s lost innocence. FT
Bloomberg: Ballmer’s $2 billion domed arena opens as LA takes Olympic torch
+ Intuit Dome will be home of NBA’s Clippers, host Olympic hoops
+ Former Microsoft CEO built the venue without public funding
The oldest Olympians might hold the key to slowing aging: Some athletes continue to compete well past their 60s. Scientists are studying them on the cellular level for clues. FC Flam
The NFL kept its most advanced data hidden for years. Now it’s finally on sale. The launch of NFL Pro for the new season will allow access to the type of sophisticated, granular metrics that other leagues have long made available to fans. WSJ
Why some NFL players are wearing Guardian Caps in preseason games: WP reports the NFL requires players at certain positions to wear the pillowy, padded shells on the outside of their helmets during many practices. Some players have taken it a step further, wearing the caps during preseason games.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal