Caracal Daily | August 16
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
WHO declares Mpox outbreak a global health emergency.
WP: Sweden detects mpox variant for the first time outside of Africa
Gaza cease-fire talks are underway in Doha between Israel, Qatar, Egypt and the US.
The Times: ‘Total victory’ over Hamas not possible, US warns Israel
The missteps in Washington and Tehran that brought Middle East to the brink: WSJ reports as the prospect of an attack on Israel looms, officials in the US and Iran are facing a potential escalation with major risks for both sides.
Biden ‘open’ to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine: Politico reports the Pentagon is already working through fixes to allow Ukraine to launch the weapons from its fighter planes.
As Kyiv makes gains in Kursk, Russia strikes back in Donetsk: Politico reports Ukraine captured a record 102 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region in one day on Wednesday.
Ukraine offensive in Russia expands beyond Kursk region, soldiers say: WP reports Ukraine says Russia has been in contact about a new prisoner exchange amid reports that hundreds of Russian servicemen have been seized in the operation.
A drunken evening, a rented yacht: The real story of the Nord Stream Pipeline sabotage: Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off. WSJ
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s president, called on Russia and Ukraine to end their “scuffle” in an interview that will be broadcast on Russian state media.
In Romania, NATO is building one of its largest airbases in Europe: The Mihail Koğalniceanu Military Base in Romania, built during the communist era on the Black Sea opposite Crimea, has undergone a transformation to strengthen NATO's capabilities in the east of the continent. Le Monde
Russia sentences American woman to 12 years for donation aiding Ukraine: WP reports the woman, Ksenia Karelina, a beautician living in Los Angeles, was visiting family in Russia when she was arrested at the airport over a donation of about $50 to an aid group.
China will impose export limits on antimony to protect national interests and security, the government said on Thursday, adding to a series of measures to limit global availability of critical minerals whose supply the country dominates.
TJT: Japan marks 79 years since World War II surrender
80%: The proportion of Japanese voters who did not want Kishida Fumio to continue as prime minister, according to polls.
Japan's LDP heavyweights set to spar for PM post as Kishida steps aside: Ruling party to choose next leader in September poll. Nikkei
Kim Dotcom to be extradited from New Zealand to US: Guardian reports an NZ justice minister signs extradition order for Megaupload founder 12 years after FBI-ordered raid over filesharing site.
India pressed US to go easy on Bangladeshi leader before her ouster, officials say: WP reports after Indian lobbying, Washington toned down its criticism of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Now both countries must confront whether they mishandled Bangladesh.
Sudan’s humanitarian crisis is only getting worse: In the Nuba Mountains, hundreds of thousands of refugees have found a haven from war but now face a famine that aid agencies seem powerless to ease. Julian Busch + Vincent Haiges
America can’t produce the weapons it needs for the future. This could help. The United States, Australia and Britain are making it easier to share defense technology, hoping to spur the innovations needed to keep up with China. NYT
US eases tech curbs to boost AUKUS security pact with UK and Australia: London and Canberra will no longer need licences to obtain some American defence-related technology. FT
Reluctantly, America eyes building more nuclear weapons: The superpower faces more adversaries, new technologies, and less-confident allies. Economist
*** US Politics + Elections ***
He still thought he could win: Inside Biden’s decision to drop out: People close to President Biden say he believes he could have won a second term. But he came to realize that the fight would rip apart the Democratic Party that he had served his whole life. NYT
PA POTUS: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 48% to 45% in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters.
MI POTUS: A new AARP poll in Michigan finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris among registered voters, 45% to 43%, with 8% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 4% of voters undecided.
+ "Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is… Beat the hell out of them." -- President Biden, at a campaign rally with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democrats lean into liberty and the language of Republicans: NYT reports Kamala Harris and her allies are using traditionally right-leaning messaging to argue that Republicans threaten fundamental freedoms. “Mind your own damn business!” Tim Walz recently said.
Kamala Harris spends 10 times as much as Trump on digital ad blitz: FT reports the former president’s lacklustre output points to significant tactical change from four years ago.
Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model: The Democratic nominee could win in the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt and get to the White House, while Donald Trump must win in both geographic regions to triumph. WP
Harris set to propose a “price gouging” ban on food and groceries.
Harris to call for construction of 3 million new housing units: WSJ reports the Democratic nominee will outline her housing plans Friday as her economic agenda takes shape.
Menendez will be replaced in Senate by Murphy loyalist: NYT reports Gov. Philip Murphy of New Jersey selected George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to finish Senator Robert Menendez’s term after he steps down.
Democrats have new hope in battle for Senate majority: WSJ reports reflecting his party’s renewed hopes, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer predicts Democrats will maintain their slim Senate majority, perhaps even expand it.
Republicans practically beg Trump to change it up. He’s not listening. Calls for more policy, less crowd-size talk and fewer insults have gone unheeded. Trump has signaled he won’t change — or can’t. WP
Politico: Trump campaign brings Corey Lewandowski back on board
CNN: Elon Musk’s AI photo tool is generating realistic, fake images of Trump, Harris, and Biden
See how AI detection works, and fails, to catch election deepfakes WP
Crypto Democrats rally behind Harris campaign in push for policy revamp: Reuters reports billionaire Mark Cuban, Wall Street financier Anthony Scaramucci and congressman Adam Schiff were among a group of cryptocurrency advocates who called on Kamala Harris to reset the Democratic party's policy on digital assets ahead of the November election.
Kamala Harris should not cave to overtures from the crypto crowd: Industry lobby groups are seeking the lighter touch of the CFTC regulation rather than SEC oversight. Dennis Kelleher
Crypto: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer aims to get cryptocurrency rules in the US passed into law this year.
California’s AI safety bill is a mask-off moment for the industry: AI’s top industrialists say they want regulation—until someone tries to regulate them. The Nation
AP: Wyoming reporter caught using artificial intelligence to create fake quotes and stories
Columbia University president resigns: WSJ reports Minouche Shafik's abrupt resignation ends an embattled 13-month tenure marked by protests over the Israel-Hamas war. She is the fifth Ivy League president to step down over the past year.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Nvidia scraped millions of YouTube videos without the consent of creators to train and develop its AI model that generates video content, according to a new federal lawsuit.
Google’s antitrust defeat could shape AI markets: Court ruling on search could prevent companies from dominating newer markets. Richard Waters
Google’s AI search gives sites dire choice: Share data or die: Bloomberg reports publishers say blocking the company’s AI bot could also prevent their sites from showing up in search.
Eric Schmidt walks back claim Google is behind on AI because of remote work: Ex-Google CEO had said the tech company’s work-life balance was ‘more important than winning.’ WSJ
Sahara AI, a startup co-founded by a University of Southern California associate professor, has raised $43 million as it seeks to address thorny copyright and privacy issues surrounding artificial intelligence technology.
Lenovo is the latest company to get an AI boost to earnings.
Apple pushes ahead with a tabletop robot.
Musk’s ‘fun’ AI image chatbot serves up Nazi Mickey Mouse and Taylor Swift deepfakes: Guardian reports Grok doesn’t reject prompts depicting violent and explicit content as X owner calls it ‘the most fun AI in the world!’
Edgar Bronfman Jr. is said to be close to making an offer for Paramount that would compete with Skydance's accepted bid.
Kroger plans to cut grocery prices by $1 billion if its nearly $25 billion merger with Albertsons comes to fruition.
Toyota bets big on hybrid-only models as EV demand slows.
Coming to ‘iPhone City’: An electric car factory from Foxconn: NYT reports the Taiwanese company has built a manufacturing hub in Zhengzhou, China, for its star customer Apple, but it is starting almost from scratch in the auto business.
Is IKEA more Dutch than Swedish? Despite its Älmhult roots, the center of the flat-pack giant’s structure is the Netherlands. Richard Milne
How online influencers got addicted to Swedish candy: TikTok’s obsession with Scandinavian sweets, which began in early 2024, has squeezed global supply chains and shows no signs of slowing down. Bloomberg
*** Culture ***
Jean-Paul Descombey, Le Monde's most loyal reader from day one: The 94-year-old French psychiatrist-psychoanalyst has never stopped reading the newspaper since it was first published on December 18, 1944, even if occasional articles have sometimes exasperated him. Le Monde
WSJ: Brazil nude beaches have a problem: Not enough nudists
*** Sport ***
US Soccer focuses on Mauricio Pochettino as next coach of
men’s team: WP reports Pochettino would replace Gregg Berhalter, who was fired after the team’s poor performance in Copa América, a major tuneup for the 2026 World Cup.
Why this could be the most absurd Premier League season yet The Times
Bloomberg: Gamblers are dumping stocks to bet on sports, new study says
+ Gaming group says sports wagering is for fun, not investment
+ Robinhood guides meme crowd to more sensible way of investing
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 15
Caracal Daily | August 15
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
The Russian region of Belgorod declared a state of emergency, becoming the second region to do so, following the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk.
Russia withdraws some forces from Ukraine in response to Kursk invasion: WSJ reports Ukraine was sending in reinforcements Tuesday to bolster its foothold in the Russian border region.
+ "If he [Vladimir Putin] keeps on battling against Ukraine, this is going to happen more often." -- Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, told the BBC Radio 4’s Today program that Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory is all about making Putin realize the consequences of the war continuing.
How the Ukrainian army easily entered Russia and is holding its positions: Moscow considered the border zone in the Kursk region, a no-man's-land five to 10 kilometers wide, to be low-risk. Military experts say that instead, all attention was focused on the Donbas. Le Monde
Kyiv's bold offensive gamble: By gaining a foothold on Russian territory, the Ukrainian army is inflicting a painful setback on Vladimir Putin. It hopes to force Moscow to redeploy some of its troops, in order to alleviate, even temporarily, the attacks taking place further south. Le Monde - Editorial
Ukraine prepares for Trump trade with Russian land grab: Kursk incursion could give Kyiv a bargaining chip, but at what cost? Ben Hall
Germany has issued a European arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor who they allege was involved in the Nord Stream attack in September 2022.
Arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream pipeline bombings: German prosecutors sought detention of a Ukrainian citizen living in Poland over the 2022 sabotage of gas supply from Russia. The Times
Nord Stream sabotage: Berlin issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian man: Le Monde reports according to German media reports, investigators located one of the members of the sabotage team near Warsaw. Poland confirmed that it had received an arrest warrant for 'Volodymyr Z.' in June, but the suspect fled to Ukraine before being detained.
Iran has rejected calls from the UK and the West to refrain from launching an attack on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The country’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, said it was Iran’s ‘legal right.’
In Israel, support grows for offensive against Hezbollah: WSJ reports as the US works to avoid a regional war, inside security circles some wonder whether now is the time to risk one.
Now is the time to invest in Israeli companies: The country is bursting with innovation and scored as one of the best for producing startups. Anat Guetta + Eliot Penn
Part of Athens is being evacuated as raging wildfires approach the Greek capital.
New UK government bets on green energy. Companies are wary. WSJ reports the newly elected Labour Party is launching a multibillion-dollar effort to regain the country’s place as a global pacesetter for clean energy.
Europe ramps up its battle with Elon Musk: Intervention ahead of Trump interview adds to tensions over first-of-its-kind investigation into social media platform X. FT
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is to step down in September, after saying he would not seek reelection to stay in office.
Kishida's out. Who will likely be Japan's next leader? The prime minister's decision not to run in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential race has ignited discussion on who might succeed him. TJT
+ Kishida is the third G7 leader to announce their departure since that notorious “lame duck” summit in Italy back in June, following Joe Biden and, erm, Rishi Sunak. Who’s next? The clever money’s on Olaf Scholz or Justin Trudeau.
Manila looks beyond Asia for defense support: TJT reports Germany is the latest Western power to announce plans to deepen security ties with the Philippines amid Manila's escalating territorial disputes with China.
Canada’s housing bust pits real estate coaches against students: A new class of educators promised to help small-time investors use property to build their personal wealth. Now, a backlash is brewing. Bloomberg
To best China, Pentagon must shed "the same old mindsets": Axios reports Pentagon officials say the U.S. stands at the precipice of a new golden age of defense innovation driven by upstart contractors, advances in technology, and a world brimming with threats.
The US Army’s DEVCOM + Clemson University unveiled a new semi-autonomous, optionally piloted ground rescue vehicle dubbed Deep Orange 15.
NORAD and the Arctic: Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, head of NORAD and US Northern Command, called for greater domain awareness in the Arctic in the wake of recent approaches to North America by Chinese and Russian bombers.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
82: The number of days until the 2024 election.
WP: Trump vs. Harris magnifies generational, cultural divides
Kamala Harris leads or ties Donald Trump in all but one battleground state — Nevada — according to the latest Cook Political Report survey.
AP: Americans give Harris an advantage over Trump on honesty and discipline, an AP-NORC poll finds
The Democratic convention party scene is taking shape: John Legend is set to headline one of the week’s biggest events so far — a bash by Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois — but despite speculation, there’s no sign yet of Beyoncé or Taylor Swift in Chicago. NYT
Kamala Harris’s economic team, agenda start to take shape: The Democratic nominee is seeking to differentiate herself from President Biden even as she amplifies many of his policy proposals. WSJ
Are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz true Baby Boomers? The Democratic nominee and her running mate were born in what is customarily labeled the last year of the baby boom. Births data don’t entirely back that up. Justin Fox
Donald Trump's campaign is stalling: Donald Trump has been destabilized by Kamala Harris's entry into the presidential race. His campaign is stuck in the same pattern as 2016, in which he presented himself as a radically new option. Now that's a stance that's a little bit harder to believe. Le Monde - Editorial
The American right is terminally online: Elon Musk and Donald Trump joined forces. Or are they stuck with each other? John Herrman
Catholic converts like JD Vance are reshaping Republican politics Matthew Schmitz
WSJ: Cooling inflation sets stage for September rate cut
+ July reading of 2.9% is first drop firmly below 3% since early 2021
US said to consider a breakup of Google to address search monopoly: NYT reports the Justice Department and state attorneys general are discussing various scenarios to remedy Google’s dominance in online search, including a breakup of the company.
Crypto PAC will spend $12M backing Republican in Ohio race that could flip Senate: Politico reports a crypto super PAC will also go on the air backing the Democratic Senate candidates Ruben Gallego in Arizona and Elisa Slotkin in Michigan.
A California bill to regulate AI causes alarm in Silicon Valley: California state senator Scott Wiener wants to stop the creation of dangerous AI. But critics say he is jumping the gun. NYT
AI as snake oil: Software billionaire Dan O’Dowd is launching a new offensive in the NYT and WSJ that paint AI technology as “snake oil” being peddled by high-powered grifters. O’Dowd’s latest ads are more derisive than alarmist. They argue that tech scions have “added trillions to their market caps by stoking Artificial Intelligence hype” but that the technologies themselves are flawed — and shouldn’t be trusted for use in critical infrastructure. See the ad here.
+ O’Dowd said he’s supportive of efforts to regulate the sector, including state Sen. Scott Wiener’s Senate Bill 1047, but said there needs to be more done to mitigate what he sees as a lack of reliability in AI tools.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Alaska Air Group + Hawaiian Holdings said they will again extend closing their proposed $1.9 billion deal to give US antitrust enforcers more time to discuss a potential settlement.
The satellite industry grew substantially in 2023, including a 361% increase in orbiting satellites.
SpaceX is planning to add three new rocket landing zones at Cape Canaveral to boost launch frequency.
8.8 million of the PCs shipped in Q2 2024 were AI-capable. That's 14% of all PCs shipped globally.
Fashionable AI eyewear has been having a moment lately, with Meta Platforms Inc.’s newest Ray-Ban smart glasses being the most prominent example.
Elon Musk’s xAI launches Grok-2 in race to catch ChatGPT: FT reports the latest chatbot ranks in top 5 models, according to independent benchmark sites, and will be available to X subscribers.
Deep-live-cam goes viral, allowing anyone to become a digital doppelganger: ARS Tech reports using one photo and free software, someone can impersonate your appearance in a video chat.
How ‘deepfake Elon Musk’ became the internet’s biggest scammer: An AI-powered version of Musk has appeared in thousands of inauthentic ads, contributing to billions in fraud. NYT
AI could ruin kids’ critical-thinking skills Jessica Grose
Google’s Gemini Live AI sounds so human, I almost forgot it was a bot Joanna Stern
Can the mobile wave help us navigate the AI wave? Tech experts from Wharton and Forrester look back on the advent of the iPhone, identifying key lessons that leaders today can apply to AI. K@W
Is now the right time to appoint a chief AI officer? The rapid advance of GenAI has been bewildering. No wonder many business leaders are considering whether they’d benefit from the guidance of a strategic-level expert in the field. Raconteur
Why AI risks are keeping board members up at night: Company directors are trying to get a handle on artificial intelligence as its use soars, bringing potential productivity gains—but also raising the prospect of employee blunders. WSJ
Musk’s X reeks of failing social network syndrome: The former Twitter is losing users, advertisers, and relevance. This presidential election will be the platform’s last. David Lee
Amazon and Meta’s bid to rewrite the rules on net zero: Critics say a proposed change could allow large energy users to hide their true emissions. FT
Why Disney plussed itself Josef Adalian
Family-owned candy giant Mars, whose brands include M&M's and Snickers, is nearing a deal to acquire Kellanova, maker of snacks such as Cheez-It and Pringles, for nearly $30 billion.
Avon Products has filed for bankruptcy, after a wave of lawsuits claiming that the talc in its products were contaminated with cancer-causing substances.
Surgeons cut a giant tumor out of my head. Is there a better way? A freak diagnosis led me to a renowned neurosurgeon—and his decades-long quest to develop medical treatments that use sound. Bloomberg
*** Culture ***
Missy Elliott, pop world builder, brings a hip-hop fantasia to Brooklyn: For her first headlining tour in an innovative three-decade career, Elliott unleashed a relentless and exhilarating display of theatrical and visual ambition. NYT
*** Sport ***
Hallucinations and seven minutes of sleep: The mad world of ultra-cycling: David Bates is taking on Badlands, a 792km race through the deserts and mountains of Spain. In part one of his diary, he meets fellow ultra-endurance cyclists to ask: why on earth do we do it? The Times
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal