Caracal Daily | August 16

Caracal Daily | August 16

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Friday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

WHO declares Mpox outbreak a global health emergency.

WP: Sweden detects mpox variant for the first time outside of Africa

Gaza cease-fire talks are underway in Doha between Israel, Qatar, Egypt and the US. 

The Times: ‘Total victory’ over Hamas not possible, US warns Israel

The missteps in Washington and Tehran that brought Middle East to the brink: WSJ reports as the prospect of an attack on Israel looms, officials in the US and Iran are facing a potential escalation with major risks for both sides.

Biden ‘open’ to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine: Politico reports the Pentagon is already working through fixes to allow Ukraine to launch the weapons from its fighter planes.

As Kyiv makes gains in Kursk, Russia strikes back in Donetsk: Politico reports Ukraine captured a record 102 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region in one day on Wednesday.

Ukraine offensive in Russia expands beyond Kursk region, soldiers say: WP reports Ukraine says Russia has been in contact about a new prisoner exchange amid reports that hundreds of Russian servicemen have been seized in the operation.

A drunken evening, a rented yacht: The real story of the Nord Stream Pipeline sabotage: Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off. WSJ

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s president, called on Russia and Ukraine to end their “scuffle” in an interview that will be broadcast on Russian state media.

In Romania, NATO is building one of its largest airbases in Europe: The Mihail Koğalniceanu Military Base in Romania, built during the communist era on the Black Sea opposite Crimea, has undergone a transformation to strengthen NATO's capabilities in the east of the continent. Le Monde

Russia sentences American woman to 12 years for donation aiding Ukraine: WP reports the woman, Ksenia Karelina, a beautician living in Los Angeles, was visiting family in Russia when she was arrested at the airport over a donation of about $50 to an aid group.

China will impose export limits on antimony to protect national interests and security, the government said on Thursday, adding to a series of measures to limit global availability of critical minerals whose supply the country dominates.

TJT: Japan marks 79 years since World War II surrender

80%: The proportion of Japanese voters who did not want Kishida Fumio to continue as prime minister, according to polls. 

Japan's LDP heavyweights set to spar for PM post as Kishida steps aside: Ruling party to choose next leader in September poll. Nikkei

Kim Dotcom to be extradited from New Zealand to US: Guardian reports an NZ justice minister signs extradition order for Megaupload founder 12 years after FBI-ordered raid over filesharing site.

India pressed US to go easy on Bangladeshi leader before her ouster, officials say: WP reports after Indian lobbying, Washington toned down its criticism of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Now both countries must confront whether they mishandled Bangladesh.

Sudan’s humanitarian crisis is only getting worse: In the Nuba Mountains, hundreds of thousands of refugees have found a haven from war but now face a famine that aid agencies seem powerless to ease. Julian Busch + Vincent Haiges

America can’t produce the weapons it needs for the future. This could help. The United States, Australia and Britain are making it easier to share defense technology, hoping to spur the innovations needed to keep up with China. NYT

US eases tech curbs to boost AUKUS security pact with UK and Australia: London and Canberra will no longer need licences to obtain some American defence-related technology. FT

Reluctantly, America eyes building more nuclear weapons: The superpower faces more adversaries, new technologies, and less-confident allies. Economist


***  US Politics + Elections ***

He still thought he could win: Inside Biden’s decision to drop out: People close to President Biden say he believes he could have won a second term. But he came to realize that the fight would rip apart the Democratic Party that he had served his whole life. NYT

PA POTUS: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 48% to 45% in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters.

MI POTUS: A new AARP poll in Michigan finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris among registered voters, 45% to 43%, with 8% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 4% of voters undecided.

+ "Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is… Beat the hell out of them." -- President Biden, at a campaign rally with Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democrats lean into liberty and the language of Republicans: NYT reports Kamala Harris and her allies are using traditionally right-leaning messaging to argue that Republicans threaten fundamental freedoms. “Mind your own damn business!” Tim Walz recently said.

Kamala Harris spends 10 times as much as Trump on digital ad blitz: FT reports the former president’s lacklustre output points to significant tactical change from four years ago.

Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model: The Democratic nominee could win in the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt and get to the White House, while Donald Trump must win in both geographic regions to triumph. WP

Harris set to propose a “price gouging” ban on food and groceries.

Harris to call for construction of 3 million new housing units: WSJ reports the Democratic nominee will outline her housing plans Friday as her economic agenda takes shape.

Menendez will be replaced in Senate by Murphy loyalist: NYT reports Gov. Philip Murphy of New Jersey selected George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to finish Senator Robert Menendez’s term after he steps down.

Democrats have new hope in battle for Senate majority: WSJ reports reflecting his party’s renewed hopes, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer predicts Democrats will maintain their slim Senate majority, perhaps even expand it.

Republicans practically beg Trump to change it up. He’s not listening. Calls for more policy, less crowd-size talk and fewer insults have gone unheeded. Trump has signaled he won’t change — or can’t. WP

Politico: Trump campaign brings Corey Lewandowski back on board

CNN: Elon Musk’s AI photo tool is generating realistic, fake images of Trump, Harris, and Biden

See how AI detection works, and fails, to catch election deepfakes WP

Crypto Democrats rally behind Harris campaign in push for policy revamp: Reuters reports billionaire Mark Cuban, Wall Street financier Anthony Scaramucci and congressman Adam Schiff were among a group of cryptocurrency advocates who called on Kamala Harris to reset the Democratic party's policy on digital assets ahead of the November election.

Kamala Harris should not cave to overtures from the crypto crowd: Industry lobby groups are seeking the lighter touch of the CFTC regulation rather than SEC oversight. Dennis Kelleher

Crypto: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer aims to get cryptocurrency rules in the US passed into law this year.

California’s AI safety bill is a mask-off moment for the industry: AI’s top industrialists say they want regulation—until someone tries to regulate them. The Nation

AP: Wyoming reporter caught using artificial intelligence to create fake quotes and stories

Columbia University president resigns: WSJ reports Minouche Shafik's abrupt resignation ends an embattled 13-month tenure marked by protests over the Israel-Hamas war. She is the fifth Ivy League president to step down over the past year.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Nvidia scraped millions of YouTube videos without the consent of creators to train and develop its AI model that generates video content, according to a new federal lawsuit.

Google’s antitrust defeat could shape AI markets: Court ruling on search could prevent companies from dominating newer markets. Richard Waters

Google’s AI search gives sites dire choice: Share data or die: Bloomberg reports publishers say blocking the company’s AI bot could also prevent their sites from showing up in search.

Eric Schmidt walks back claim Google is behind on AI because of remote work: Ex-Google CEO had said the tech company’s work-life balance was ‘more important than winning.’ WSJ

Sahara AI, a startup co-founded by a University of Southern California associate professor, has raised $43 million as it seeks to address thorny copyright and privacy issues surrounding artificial intelligence technology.

Lenovo is the latest company to get an AI boost to earnings.

Apple pushes ahead with a tabletop robot.

Musk’s ‘fun’ AI image chatbot serves up Nazi Mickey Mouse and Taylor Swift deepfakes: Guardian reports Grok doesn’t reject prompts depicting violent and explicit content as X owner calls it ‘the most fun AI in the world!’

Edgar Bronfman Jr. is said to be close to making an offer for Paramount that would compete with Skydance's accepted bid.

Kroger plans to cut grocery prices by $1 billion if its nearly $25 billion merger with Albertsons comes to fruition.

Toyota bets big on hybrid-only models as EV demand slows.

Coming to ‘iPhone City’: An electric car factory from Foxconn: NYT reports the Taiwanese company has built a manufacturing hub in Zhengzhou, China, for its star customer Apple, but it is starting almost from scratch in the auto business.

Is IKEA more Dutch than Swedish? Despite its Älmhult roots, the center of the flat-pack giant’s structure is the Netherlands. Richard Milne

How online influencers got addicted to Swedish candy: TikTok’s obsession with Scandinavian sweets, which began in early 2024, has squeezed global supply chains and shows no signs of slowing down. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Jean-Paul Descombey, Le Monde's most loyal reader from day one: The 94-year-old French psychiatrist-psychoanalyst has never stopped reading the newspaper since it was first published on December 18, 1944, even if occasional articles have sometimes exasperated him. Le Monde

WSJ: Brazil nude beaches have a problem: Not enough nudists

*** Sport ***

US Soccer focuses on Mauricio Pochettino as next coach of
men’s team: WP reports Pochettino would replace Gregg Berhalter, who was fired after the team’s poor performance in Copa América, a major tuneup for the 2026 World Cup.

Why this could be the most absurd Premier League season yet The Times

Bloomberg: Gamblers are dumping stocks to bet on sports, new study says

+ Gaming group says sports wagering is for fun, not investment

+ Robinhood guides meme crowd to more sensible way of investing


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal